Coral Eclipse
- Thread starter Hamm
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Really? Shame, i was hoping to make money opposing him this year.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Sure you aren't thinking of Creachadoir?
Sheikh
At the Start
From Breakingnews.ie
Yes, it's very near South West London where I live.
Here's a 5 day forecast for the area..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=2328
Literato is, to my eyes, the only potential top class horse in the line up. Could he be this year's Refuse to Bend? (originally pointed out by another poster, i must add)
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
Sandown is at Esher in Greater London, on the south west side.
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
Hadn't seen your reply when I typed mine, AH - apologies!
Glad I looked at that - it's been so sunny and dry here in Suffolk I was in danger of setting off for my trip to Berks/Esher etc without the necessary rain gear 
Pray the forecast is wrong - it's not going to be fun taking fashion photos at Sandown in the rain :dork:
Pray the forecast is wrong - it's not going to be fun taking fashion photos at Sandown in the rain :dork:This is shaping up to be a Group 2 race at best. It's often said that Group 1 horses win Group 1 races, and for the most part that's true. It stands to reason though that every Gp1 has to win their first, and this race is increasingly looking liek a candidate.
Going into next Saturday, we only have 3 previous Group 1 winners, and I've tried to deconstruct their form and make sense of where I'm increasingly (and surprisingly) starting to feel the value lies.
Mount Nelson won a 2yo Gp1 race at Saint Cloud on 29/10/06 (The Criterium). This isn't traditionally one of the better Group 1 affairs, and the 2006 renewal conforms with this.
2nd = Spirit One - 1 win in 11 subsequent runs, a Gp3 in heavy ground in March
3rd = Yellowstone - 1 win in 13 subsequent runs, The Gp3 Gordon Stakes
4th = Friston Forest - No group wins, 2 Listed wins
5th = Rallying Cry - No win in 5 subsequent runs
6th = Makaan - No win or place in 4 subsequent runs
7th = Holocene - No win in 7 subsequent runs
8th = Vital Equine - The strongest horse to come out of the race with a second in the 2K, but still no win in 3 subsequent runs
9th = Belatanus - 1 Listed win at Baden Baden
10th = Teslin - 2 handicap wins in 10 subsequent runs
In total horses representing this race did the following in group races
Group 1 - Runs = 16, Wins = 0, Places = 2 Unplaced = 14
It's difficult to sustain the argument that this was a ture Group 1 race with 14 out of 16 not placing in subsequent races, and no representative registering a win
Group 2 - Runs = 13, Wins = 0, Places = 6, Unplaced = 7
A bit nearer, but still no win, although a few more places (admittedly some in pretty small fields, and in farer flung parts of Europe) offers a bit of hope, but with no winner emerging from 13 attempts, it's difficult to sustain the idea that the Criterium was even up to Group 2 standard.
Group 3 - Runs =16, Wins = 2, Places 4, Unplaced 10
At last we find some evidence of winning form although the ratio of placed to unplaced drops from the Group 2 sample. This is largely down to the particularly poor horses being confined to Group 3 and Listed stuff though
It's very tempting to conclude therefore that with this race (well exposed now), amounts to about Group 2 and a half, or Group 2 at best. After 45 subsequent runs in group class, we're still awaiting the first winner outside of Group 3 company to frank it. The favourites two forays into Group 1 class haven't yet threatened to do so, although excuses might exist. At face value, Phoenix Towers two atempts when coming second in the Lockinge and Prince of Wales look better, although the PoW looked sub standard, and Duke of Marmalade beat him rather more comfortably than the margin suggests
Turning my attention to another candidate; Pressing's Group 1 win was achieved in the Premio Roma more recently on 4/11/07 at Campanelle. As you might expect, the evidence isn't as abundant, but it's pointing towards a similar outcome.
2nd = Monachesi - 1 run, unplaced in Listed
3rd = Boris De Deauville - No win in 3 subsequent runs
4th = Cherry Mix - Not run since, but likely to be in decline now anyway, and shouldn't really be used to assess the form
5th = Vol de Nuit - No win from one subsequent Listed run
6th = First Stream - No win from 2 subsequent runs
7th = Distant Way - Not run since
8th = Speciosa - No win from 3 subsequent runs, and looks well past her best anyway
9th = Laverock - Not run since
10 = Hattan - 1 Gp3 win from 5 subsequent runs, though this was the Winter Derby
Group 1 - Runs = 5, Wins = 0, Places = 1 Unplaced = 4
Again it's difficult to sustain the argument that this was a ture Group 1 race although it might be too early.
Group 2 - Runs 3, Wins = 1, Places = 1, Unplaced = 2
Same comment applies
Group 3 - Runs =4 Wins = 1, Places 1, Unplaced 2
The evidence is sketchy but is pointing towards this being a good Group 3 race, but little more than that.
Finally, this leave Literato's Champion Stakes win. I wouldn't normally seek to crab this race, but I'm far from convinced last years, was a vintage renewal. Eagle Mountain came a very close second, although with Doctor Dino, Creachadoir and Notnowcato finishing further back, it does at least represent the strongest form going into the Eclipse. The problem I have with the winner is what subsequently happened to him. He left Jean Claude Rouget and ended up at the boot camp that is known as Godolphin. He finished 12th of 16 in the Dubai Duty Free, before coming back to Europe and finishing even further away when last of 6 in the D'Ispahan. He undoubtedly represents the rogue element, as a return to last years form should be enough, but will he oblige? Godolphin have a habit of getting to the bottom of their horses, and although you could argue that the wintering programme was responsible for his early season flop, I'm inclined to think the horse might have relapsed.
So where am I going with this?
Well I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that there is only one genuine Gp1 winning display on offer, (and that has to be taken on a lump of good faith now). There is however, some Gp1 form, and the best recent stuff is represented by Phoenix Tower, Mount Nelson and Pipedreamer, although it wouldn't be terribly strong form at the moment.
The question I'm asking is, if this a Gp 2/3 race in disguise? might Marahaal finally (after 14 attempts) be in play as a serious e/w bet. To some extent it is down to his age as he's had more racing, but he boasts the highest number of Gp2 and Gp3 wins going into the race (two and five respectively). His record going right handed isn't too bad either, and he's been in against (though admittedly on the coat tails) of better types than what's lining up at Esher.
3rd of 9 - G2 (Hardwicke)
2nd of 14 - G3 (Brigadier Gerrard beat Pipedreamer)
3rd of 7 - G1 (Prince of Wales? can't remember)
1st of 7 - G2 (Hardwicke)
5th of 6 - G1 (King George)
1st of 8 - G3
2nd of 17 - 3yo H'cap
4th of 14 - debut maiden
The horses who've beaten him the last 15 months doesn't read too bad.
MacArthur, Multidimensional (he also boasts a victory giving him 5Ibs last year) Smokey Oakey, Championship Point, Literato (see above) Duke of Marmalde, Dylan Thomas (twice, 7.5L's & 9.5L's) Red Rocks, Scorpion and Septimus
Unfortunately though, a lot of the horses he's beaten are really an assortment of Group 2 and 3 candidates (including mount Nelson, Pipedreamer and Multidimensional) and those who are Group 1 animals, would have been in retreat, such as Sir Percy, Finescael Beo and Sixties Icon etc My best guess, is that he's still at this level of Group 2 and half, but that this might be enough.
Literato is either going to win or come well down the field. Phoenix Tower looks to be the most progressive, and probably hasn't had a race run to suit at a distance yet. For me he seems the most likely winner, but I'm half tempted to try this new 'Swinger' with Marahaal. Having said that it seems unlikely that O'Brien will return without a place, so we might have a combination forecast afterall.
Marahaal was 20/1 last time I looked for a Group 2/3 race in a smallish field going right handed, although my instinct tells me that if hasn't been good enough until now, he's unlikely to suddenly oblige and that something or something(s) slightly less exposed will go past him.
Going into next Saturday, we only have 3 previous Group 1 winners, and I've tried to deconstruct their form and make sense of where I'm increasingly (and surprisingly) starting to feel the value lies.
Mount Nelson won a 2yo Gp1 race at Saint Cloud on 29/10/06 (The Criterium). This isn't traditionally one of the better Group 1 affairs, and the 2006 renewal conforms with this.
2nd = Spirit One - 1 win in 11 subsequent runs, a Gp3 in heavy ground in March
3rd = Yellowstone - 1 win in 13 subsequent runs, The Gp3 Gordon Stakes
4th = Friston Forest - No group wins, 2 Listed wins
5th = Rallying Cry - No win in 5 subsequent runs
6th = Makaan - No win or place in 4 subsequent runs
7th = Holocene - No win in 7 subsequent runs
8th = Vital Equine - The strongest horse to come out of the race with a second in the 2K, but still no win in 3 subsequent runs
9th = Belatanus - 1 Listed win at Baden Baden
10th = Teslin - 2 handicap wins in 10 subsequent runs
In total horses representing this race did the following in group races
Group 1 - Runs = 16, Wins = 0, Places = 2 Unplaced = 14
It's difficult to sustain the argument that this was a ture Group 1 race with 14 out of 16 not placing in subsequent races, and no representative registering a win
Group 2 - Runs = 13, Wins = 0, Places = 6, Unplaced = 7
A bit nearer, but still no win, although a few more places (admittedly some in pretty small fields, and in farer flung parts of Europe) offers a bit of hope, but with no winner emerging from 13 attempts, it's difficult to sustain the idea that the Criterium was even up to Group 2 standard.
Group 3 - Runs =16, Wins = 2, Places 4, Unplaced 10
At last we find some evidence of winning form although the ratio of placed to unplaced drops from the Group 2 sample. This is largely down to the particularly poor horses being confined to Group 3 and Listed stuff though
It's very tempting to conclude therefore that with this race (well exposed now), amounts to about Group 2 and a half, or Group 2 at best. After 45 subsequent runs in group class, we're still awaiting the first winner outside of Group 3 company to frank it. The favourites two forays into Group 1 class haven't yet threatened to do so, although excuses might exist. At face value, Phoenix Towers two atempts when coming second in the Lockinge and Prince of Wales look better, although the PoW looked sub standard, and Duke of Marmalade beat him rather more comfortably than the margin suggests
Turning my attention to another candidate; Pressing's Group 1 win was achieved in the Premio Roma more recently on 4/11/07 at Campanelle. As you might expect, the evidence isn't as abundant, but it's pointing towards a similar outcome.
2nd = Monachesi - 1 run, unplaced in Listed
3rd = Boris De Deauville - No win in 3 subsequent runs
4th = Cherry Mix - Not run since, but likely to be in decline now anyway, and shouldn't really be used to assess the form
5th = Vol de Nuit - No win from one subsequent Listed run
6th = First Stream - No win from 2 subsequent runs
7th = Distant Way - Not run since
8th = Speciosa - No win from 3 subsequent runs, and looks well past her best anyway
9th = Laverock - Not run since
10 = Hattan - 1 Gp3 win from 5 subsequent runs, though this was the Winter Derby
Group 1 - Runs = 5, Wins = 0, Places = 1 Unplaced = 4
Again it's difficult to sustain the argument that this was a ture Group 1 race although it might be too early.
Group 2 - Runs 3, Wins = 1, Places = 1, Unplaced = 2
Same comment applies
Group 3 - Runs =4 Wins = 1, Places 1, Unplaced 2
The evidence is sketchy but is pointing towards this being a good Group 3 race, but little more than that.
Finally, this leave Literato's Champion Stakes win. I wouldn't normally seek to crab this race, but I'm far from convinced last years, was a vintage renewal. Eagle Mountain came a very close second, although with Doctor Dino, Creachadoir and Notnowcato finishing further back, it does at least represent the strongest form going into the Eclipse. The problem I have with the winner is what subsequently happened to him. He left Jean Claude Rouget and ended up at the boot camp that is known as Godolphin. He finished 12th of 16 in the Dubai Duty Free, before coming back to Europe and finishing even further away when last of 6 in the D'Ispahan. He undoubtedly represents the rogue element, as a return to last years form should be enough, but will he oblige? Godolphin have a habit of getting to the bottom of their horses, and although you could argue that the wintering programme was responsible for his early season flop, I'm inclined to think the horse might have relapsed.
So where am I going with this?
Well I'm increasingly coming to the conclusion that there is only one genuine Gp1 winning display on offer, (and that has to be taken on a lump of good faith now). There is however, some Gp1 form, and the best recent stuff is represented by Phoenix Tower, Mount Nelson and Pipedreamer, although it wouldn't be terribly strong form at the moment.
The question I'm asking is, if this a Gp 2/3 race in disguise? might Marahaal finally (after 14 attempts) be in play as a serious e/w bet. To some extent it is down to his age as he's had more racing, but he boasts the highest number of Gp2 and Gp3 wins going into the race (two and five respectively). His record going right handed isn't too bad either, and he's been in against (though admittedly on the coat tails) of better types than what's lining up at Esher.
3rd of 9 - G2 (Hardwicke)
2nd of 14 - G3 (Brigadier Gerrard beat Pipedreamer)
3rd of 7 - G1 (Prince of Wales? can't remember)
1st of 7 - G2 (Hardwicke)
5th of 6 - G1 (King George)
1st of 8 - G3
2nd of 17 - 3yo H'cap
4th of 14 - debut maiden
The horses who've beaten him the last 15 months doesn't read too bad.
MacArthur, Multidimensional (he also boasts a victory giving him 5Ibs last year) Smokey Oakey, Championship Point, Literato (see above) Duke of Marmalde, Dylan Thomas (twice, 7.5L's & 9.5L's) Red Rocks, Scorpion and Septimus
Unfortunately though, a lot of the horses he's beaten are really an assortment of Group 2 and 3 candidates (including mount Nelson, Pipedreamer and Multidimensional) and those who are Group 1 animals, would have been in retreat, such as Sir Percy, Finescael Beo and Sixties Icon etc My best guess, is that he's still at this level of Group 2 and half, but that this might be enough.
Literato is either going to win or come well down the field. Phoenix Tower looks to be the most progressive, and probably hasn't had a race run to suit at a distance yet. For me he seems the most likely winner, but I'm half tempted to try this new 'Swinger' with Marahaal. Having said that it seems unlikely that O'Brien will return without a place, so we might have a combination forecast afterall.
Marahaal was 20/1 last time I looked for a Group 2/3 race in a smallish field going right handed, although my instinct tells me that if hasn't been good enough until now, he's unlikely to suddenly oblige and that something or something(s) slightly less exposed will go past him.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Clerk of the course, Andrew Cooper, reports the ground as good to firm at the moment and doesn't see it altering much before the weekend, according to RP.
I agree with your reasoning, Warbler.
Literato would be a short-priced favourite (evens, perhaps?) were it not for his form since joining Godolphin.
Phoenix Tower might be the progressive one but on RPRs is still at least 5lbs short of the level normally required to win this race.
Maraahel's overall form gives him a chance, but at Ascot he was a long way behind Multidimensional, another horse who has had plenty of chances at this level.
Literato is 9/1 with Totesport. Is it madness to back him? I have.
Literato would be a short-priced favourite (evens, perhaps?) were it not for his form since joining Godolphin.
Phoenix Tower might be the progressive one but on RPRs is still at least 5lbs short of the level normally required to win this race.
Maraahel's overall form gives him a chance, but at Ascot he was a long way behind Multidimensional, another horse who has had plenty of chances at this level.
Literato is 9/1 with Totesport. Is it madness to back him? I have.
rorydelargy
At the Start
....words you don't tend to read much on racing forums, sadly.
Sheikh
At the Start
Anyone remember when Jimbo wouldn't allow Durcan collect his champion apprentice prize because he was having a row with the powers that be.
simmo
Senior Jockey
I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that Mount Nelson is the one to be on here, despite the stingy price.
Final declarations...
Literato (FR)Darryll Holland
Maraahel (IRE) (Visor)R. Hills
Mount NelsonJ. Murtagh
Multidimensional (IRE) T. P. Queally
Phoenix Tower (USA) Ted Durcan
Pipedreamer Jimmy Fortune
Rob Roy (USA) Ryan Moore
Stotsfold Adam Kirby
Campanologist (USA)L. Dettori
Literato (FR)Darryll Holland
Maraahel (IRE) (Visor)R. Hills
Mount NelsonJ. Murtagh
Multidimensional (IRE) T. P. Queally
Phoenix Tower (USA) Ted Durcan
Pipedreamer Jimmy Fortune
Rob Roy (USA) Ryan Moore
Stotsfold Adam Kirby
Campanologist (USA)L. Dettori
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Not much dead wood.
Not a bad race, I guess. Just not a good one.
Not a bad race, I guess. Just not a good one.
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
Since they decided in the end not to water, I think the ground could end up very fast. The heavy rain that was predicted for the last few days has failed to materialise and it's been pretty sunny ~ yesterday was very windy also. The going at Newbury last night was change at the last minute to good to firm having been given out as good to firm, good in places initially. It's another fine sunny day here again.
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
It's got to be doubtful. Even if they took the last minute decision to water tonight that would surely only maintain the going at good to firm, at best.
Like the location, Gareth - very good!!
Like the location, Gareth - very good!!