Daily picks.

@DanBriden: Handicapper has handed out marks to lightly-raced maiden winners today. Heatstroke (87), Peterhof (82) and Jack Hobbs (84) take the eye.
 
Southwell (AW) Result
08 Jan 2015
« 3:20 » DAILY ENHANCED "MAGIC MULTIPLES" AT UNIBET HANDICAP
(Class 6) (0-65, 3yo) 5f Standard
£2,587.60, £770.00, £384.80, £192.40

WATCH RACE - 25p
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 8 Ifittakesforever (IRE) 10/1 3 9-7 eb1 John Butler 62 * *
Graham Lee


« 2 9 2 Red Stripes (USA) 9/4F 3 9-6extra weight6 b Brian Meehan 61 * *
Hayley Turner


« 3 1 ½ Air Of York (IRE) 4/1 3 9-1 b Ronald Harris 56 * *
Renato Souza


« 4 4 6 Pancake Day 5/2 3 9-0 Jason Ward 55 * *
Andrew Elliott


« 5 6 1 Junior Ben 14/1 3 8-7over weight1 p Derek Shaw 48 * *
Patrick Mathers


« 6 2 ½ Alderaan (IRE) 16/1 3 9-7 Tony Coyle 62 * *
Barry McHugh


« 7 3 ½ Newton Bomb (IRE) 16/1 3 9-3 Conrad Allen 58 * *
Liam Jones


« 8 7 1 Jebediah Shine 16/1 3 9-7 David O'Meara 62 * *
Daniel Tudhope


« 9 5 6 Crystal Wish 20/1 3 9-2 Kevin Ryan 57 * *
Tom Eaves


9 ran TIME 59.41s (slow by 1.41s)

Ifittakesforever
Red stripes
Air of york

This maybe good form for the gtrade as the first 3 look like they could be improving on the surface,the times of the earlier 5f races were interesting the older 5f claimer was a lot slower so presumably no pace on as times would mean the younger horses have runs 2o pounds better than current ratings so have scrubbed that race,but the maiden with comeuppance in rated 70 was .38 slower than the 62 rated winner of the handicap and that winner carrying 8 pound more than come uppence.Comeuppence is not worth that rating but he could've improved for first time run on surface,will take the view that he's only a 65 horse that would take the winner of the handicap nearer to a rating of 75 and that may just work out as won nicely and the drop to 5fs looks ideal,he should win again and the times today will be very interesting.
The second like the winner was also coming from what has been the worst draws all season for 5fs they were drawn 8/9,whether the draw made any difference today would be highly unlikely in favour of the highs but as mentioned using the times of the maiden then even the second rated 62 ciould still be well in like winner only second ever run kon surface.The third vale of York is only rated 56,plenty of money for stable out of form and first time on surface,again the time of the maiden winner vale of York would've been close to that time carrying more weight so if this works out then is nicely handicapped also,would look even better if dropped a pound as well to 55 would look thrown in...
 
When did the 2nd favourite get pulled out though Slim? I saw a bit of a move from 7/2 into 5/2 earlier bit thought the big shift was because of the NR? Could be wrong...
 
Wolverhampton (AW) Result
12 Jan 2015
« 4:25 » 32RED CASINO HANDICAP (TAPETA)
(Class 6) (0-65, 3yo) (5f216y) 6f Standard
£2,587.60, £770.00, £384.80, £192.40





HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 4 Coursing 13/2 3 8-11 b1 Sir Mark Prescott Bt 55 * *
Luke Morris


« 2 8 3½ Birkdale Boy (IRE) 10/1 3 9-2 b1 Richard Fahey 60 * *
Daniel Tudhope


« 3 5 nk Galago (IRE) 10/1 3 9-7 Sylvester Kirk 65 * *
Martin Harley


« 4 3 shd Kodiac Lady (IRE) 10/1 3 9-2 James Tate 60 * *
Paul Mulrennan


« 5 11 1 Jubilee Spirit 25/1 3 9-0 v1 Geoffrey Oldroyd 58 * *
Barry McHugh


« 6 6 hd Diminutive (IRE) 16/1 3 8-13 b Grace Harris 57 * *
Stevie Donohoe


« 7 7 4 Prince Rofan (IRE) 66/1 3 8-2over weight1 v1 Derek Shaw 46 * *
Patrick Mathers


« 8 9 shd Beta Tauri (USA) 7/2 3 9-2 Charlie Appleby 65 * *
Alistair Rawlinson5


« 9 10 ½ Penelope Pitstop 8/1 3 8-5 Keith Dalgleish 54 * *
Gary Phillips5


« 10 13 1¼ Arizona Snow 33/1 3 9-2 h Ronald Harris 60 * *
Renato Souza


« 11 1 nk Bracka Legend (IRE) 5/2F 3 9-7 David Barron 65 * *
Graham Gibbons


« 12 12 2¼ Alpha Spirit 16/1 3 9-7 Mick Channon 65 * *
Charles Bishop


« 13 2 1½ Invincible Zeb (IRE) 50/1 3 9-1 p Ronald Harris 59 * *
Ben Curtis


13 ran TIME 1m 13.62s (slow by 0.42s)

Coursing

Blinkers and step up in trip appeared to make all the difference to 55 rated coursing winning easily making all,the time of 1m13.62 was pretty good for a 3yr old winning off 55 a 7 or 8 pound rise will keep her in same grade 65 or below although will be very little value she's worth bearing in mind as races are so weak.The form appears at first glance very weak,but if you take the next 3 placed horses the second had only 3 runs returning from lay off the 3rd only 5 runs and the 4th only 4 runs,the 4th actually looked really well handicapped on her debut run,so the race around those runners not as bad as first appears and makes the winners run look better backed up by time.It also looks as though racing from the front could now be a positive with three winners doing so just today,also the sire kyllachy has had 8 winners from 49 on new surface after coursings win today
with an roi of 115% so could be a sire to keep following closely on tapeta..
 
That was a violent drift on the exchanges so I'm guessing the market won't catch on next time either. Ignore the 13/2 SP and reference the Betfair SP.

Have you seen the entry for the maiden in Lingfield on Friday? Strange their not going for a handicap.
 
Coursing was 12/1 crazy price although I'd backed the barron horse at 8s and 7s never realized the Prescott horse had gone out to such ridiculous prices.Very much doubt air of York will run if that's the one you mean unless it's just a run down the field...
 
gigilo said:
KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAABBBBBOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!
Wins by half the track,best speedfigure at the track crazy prices 3/1 should've been the other way round!!!:p
Click to expand...


Are you for, against or no bet today (Street Artist)?
 
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Lard said:
Are you for, against or no bet today (Street Artist)?
Click to expand...

Wouldn't have backed it today 1.Ran poorly here last time and over further today and 2.I very rarely bet in these small fields especially odds on,rarely bet odds on anytime..
 
gigilo said:
Wouldn't have backed it today 1.Ran poorly here last time and over further today and 2.I very rarely bet in these small fields especially odds on,rarely bet odds on anytime..
Click to expand...

Cheers. I wasn't being facetious by the way, was genuinely interested in your thoughts.


Why rarely bet odds-on? Again, interested in whether this is the general race type that you like to swerve, because of the nature of the race, or purely a numerical thing?
If the odds-on horse is out of line with your opinion, why would it being odds-on stop you taking a position for/against it?

I once had a strange conversation with someone that would *never* bet on an odds on, even if it was 4/5 on Frankel in a class6 Claimer.

Mathematically, any value found at odds-on is better in terms of bankroll.

I always find it interesting folks' MO and obviously many ways to skin a cat, that's what makes the game interesting.
 
Lard said:
Cheers. I wasn't being facetious by the way, was genuinely interested in your thoughts.


Why rarely bet odds-on? Again, interested in whether this is the general race type that you like to swerve, because of the nature of the race, or purely a numerical thing?
If the odds-on horse is out of line with your opinion, why would it being odds-on stop you taking a position for/against it?

I once had a strange conversation with someone that would *never* bet on an odds on, even if it was 4/5 on Frankel in a class6 Claimer.

Mathematically, any value found at odds-on is better in terms of bankroll.

I always find it interesting folks' MO and obviously many ways to skin a cat, that's what makes the game interesting.
Click to expand...


Nothing to do with odds on shots as in having a bet,purely the fact they are rarely value and I have 1500 bets a year plus multiples placepots on top and would only be a very tiny % infact most of the value is rarely at the front end of the market on the majority of those bets even though a lot of them will end up being there.If there were 1/2 shots worth backing I'd back them but they only come up infrequently as real value,you've even got the two of todays ''certs'' getting beat anglophile and solar deity 1/4 and 1/2 bioth three horse race farces.
 
Any opinions on the Mark Johnston newcomer Champagne Ransom yesterday.Looked a big horse to me -he might struggle to win a maiden.
 
gigilo said:
19:20 Southwell (A.W.), 28 Aug 20131m 4f
Ladbrokes Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3YO to 4YO)
Winner £2,588 - 7 ran
Standard


Archive Video
Weighed In

Result Future Form Pos Dist. Silk Cloth / Horse Name (Draw) SP Age / Wt Jockey / Trainer OR
1 Dark green, red cap, dark green diamond 3. Hunting Ground (USA) (3)ATR Tracker 8/1 3 9 - 3 Liam Jones
M Johnston
-
made all, ridden over 2f out, clear over 1f out, stayed on well
2 7 Royal blue 5. Saddaqa (USA) (5)ATR Tracker 8/13 Fav 3 8 - 12p K Fallon
S bin Suroor
84
tracked leaders, went 2nd over 9f out, ridden over 3f out, beaten when edged right over 1f out
3 7 Yellow, black epaulets 4. Shemaal (IRE) (6)ATR Tracker 10/1 3 9 - 3 D Fox
R Varian
-
tracked leaders, ridden 6f out, lost place over 3f out, went modest 3rd inside final furlong
4 1 Royal blue, white cap 7. Waha (IRE) (2)ATR Tracker 20/1 3 8 - 5 Ahmad Al Subousi (7)
S bin Suroor
-
dwelt, behind early, headway over 8f out, lost ground on leaders 5f out, no impression after
5 4½ White, red sash, red and white striped cap 2. Ruwaiyan (USA) (4)ATR Tracker 3/1 2Fav 4 9 - 13 N Callan
J Tate
85
took keen hold, tracked leader until over 9f out, ridden over 3f out, weakened over 1f out
6 5 Black, maroon stripe 6. Una Bella Cosa (7)ATR Tracker 100/1 3 8 - 9v William Twiston-Davies (3)
A J McCabe
48
held up, headway 9f out, ridden over 4f out, soon beaten
7 67 Maroon and yellow check, maroon sleeves, yellow cap 1. Generous George (IRE) (1)ATR Tracker 100/1 4 9 - 13 J Quinn
M Brittain
-
held up, pushed along 10f out, ridden and weakened 8f out

Off Time:19:20:24
Winning Time:2m 36.40s


Hunting ground


Nice performance on only third run at swell clocking a reasonable time of 2m36.40 with lots of improvement to come.As many I've put on here recently I've waited to see if he could translate the form to the turf ran ok today but not going to be as good on turf unless he wants further looked at swell as though the further he went the better he was.He's been given a mark of 86 for the aw which may not leave him hardly anything to run in on at swell but worth bearing in mind if he switches surfaces during the winter and a few 0s infront of his name may just get overpriced.Out of top class dirt performers street cry and panty raid he's one to watch closely as he progresses!
Click to expand...

Make that nearer 103...:cool:
 
Kempton (AW) Result
21 Jan 2015
« 7:00 » 32RED CASINO HANDICAP
(Class 6) (0-55, 3yo) 1m Standard
£2,264.15, £673.75, £336.70, £168.35
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR

« 1 4 Le Rouquin (FR) 11/4F 3 9-5 Michael Bell 53 * *
Luke Morris


« 2 1 6 Courier 12/1 3 9-0 p Lee Carter 55 * *
Charlotte Jenner7


« 3 8 ½ Retro Valley (IRE) 14/1 3 9-4 David Dennis 52 * *
Fergus Sweeney


« 4 14 hd Medicean Melody 7/1 3 9-1 David Simcock 49 * *
Jim Crowley


« 5 10 3 Total Demolition (IRE) 8/1 3 8-10 Olly Stevens 51 * *
Aaron Jones7


« 6 5 1½ Penelope Pitstop 14/1 3 9-6 Keith Dalgleish 54 * *
Joe Fanning


« 7 7 1 Almoqatel (IRE) 20/1 3 9-7 Tony Newcombe 55 * *
Steve Drowne


« 8 12 2¾ Top Pocket 12/1 3 9-7 Michael Madgwick 55 * *
George Baker


« 9 13 2 More Drama (IRE) 16/1 3 9-4 Sylvester Kirk 52 * *
Martin Dwyer


« 10 9 4 Ocean Bentley (IRE) 66/1 3 8-12over weight1 Tony Carroll 46 * *
William Carson


« 11 11 3 Margot Rose 33/1 3 9-7 Harry Dunlop 55 * *
Tony Hamilton


« 12 2 1¾ Little Miss Mighty 11/2 3 9-7 Nick Littmoden 55 * *
J F Egan


« 13 6 8 Newton Bomb (IRE) 50/1 3 9-5 Conrad Allen 53 * *
Liam Jones


13 ran TIME 1m 38.23s (slow by 1.63s)


Le rouquin

Eyectaching run from the chestnut colt and looks to have plenty of scope stioll having had just the 6 runs,previously had 2 aw runs at wolves and Kempton and showing that form to be all wrong,the most interesting thing is the time and the sire,the tume was exceptionally quick 1m38.23 for a 53 rated 3yr old carrying 9-5 in doing so hacking up.
Nothing in this grade or anything up to the 75 mark has looked this good amongst the 3yr olds at Kempton over a mile,the most disappointing thing was luke morris giving him 5 cracks when if he'd just a quicklook could've wion without using the whip at all and styopped the hike in the weights,regardless oif that a rise of hopefully no more than 12 pound would still look generous as he could still be dramatically improving.He'd also had headgear removed so presume that will never be used again and the top class sire siyouni only 3rd ever runner makes the colt even more interesting,think there's a possibility he may even go further but in these low grade races will be kept at the mile,at the moment he's looking like a 75 horse but could be even better than that...
 
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