Presume you know it's running at Dundalk tonight Andy, where trainer has a very good record, also has the services of very good 5lb claimer Tom Madden. 8/1 looks fair imo.
8.15 wolves
Absolutely abysmal race for horses rated upto 50 and there's one runner in this race that even just going back to august would be odds on to win it,Tom Dooley has had loads of racing 56 as 5yr old and looking at some of hios form seems unbelievable that he's only won one race on turf was actually 2nd to captain Cullen in august at the curragh a race for horses rated upto 85.Hss since dropped dramatically in the weights,infact is following same pattern when running in the high 60s dropping to 47 in feb 2015 tomorrow similar thing runs off 49 has also since changed trainers,john feane had 13 runners 5 winners 38% obviously if horse retains anything like any of its ability could be a massive gamble in this race.Looks one for notebook looking at profile regardless of tomorrows result as obviously far more ability than 49 and seems to be able to get back to ratings in 60s,in all honest the prices is a bit disappointing but the profile of the horse says to back it off these marks so will have to follow it for the foreseeable future..
Tom Dooley 6/1 365/betbright
Winter Derby
A very weak looking winter derby grendisar hasn't finished out of the first two in last 7 runs over c/d and may well even win again in a weak renewal,there don't seem to be many new horses with much potential in the race I get the impression its going to be a desperate finish with the field finishing close up.There maybe a little bit of value in Battalion he has finished behind grendisar 3 times,although got left last and was making ground at finish behind don't be the other two races ben beaten fair and square.There could be a slight angle wioth battalion coming back after a break last season ran 6th in the race after 4 month break,also in previous season after 5 month break returned to win.The break from December to the end of February should suit,he's still only had 19 lifetime runs and only 6 on the aw so could be more to come in what looks a weak renewal he could be the valu at 12/1,the 5 runs at lingfield returned sps 4/1,7/1/11/4 and 9/2.There's virtually nothing unexposed in the race bar festive fare 12/1 could easily be 6-7/1 on the day!!!
Battalion 12/1 ppower/sjames/sportsbook
8.45 Kempton
Justice lady won in respectable time over 5fs at lingfield looked to have loads of improvement to come and gets to run off a mark of 62,is almost definitely the best horse in tomorrows race the negative us the jockey adam Mclean lots of rides and very few winners but of a surpriose booking.It's worth having a bet as even if gets beat will be one to follow could well be 10 pounds in at least,he takes off another 7 pound as well but that's pprobably negated with him riding could well go off 2s on in this race.If it gets beat will probably be down to the ride..
Justice lady 6/4 365
Bad ride or horse made a boo boo? One to follow anyway, might be a bit of value next time with a good pilot up?
its way in hand of mark..like i said before..i like it when they lose after a big figure..puts doubt in punters minds..better price next time
Dundalk 6.00
Your Pal Tal back over 5f drawn 2 tomorrow. Down to a mark of 71 now. Interesting one.
Has drifted to 33/1 now on BF Sportsbookcan it win at this level though Slim?..in last 18 months has raced for 8k or more with form figures of 80276000..whereas 7k or less 65232111558696. It looks to me that its nearly ready to show.. .. it jumps again to 11k tomorrow, It might win but wonder if a large drop in class is imminent after tomorrow.