gigilo
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- May 5, 2011
- Messages
- 9,796
More non runners some stramge races at Lingfield today as well Weloof 14/1 into 11/2 wins by 5ls in a slow time looks like they let it win very very strange completrky unbackable led today,usually misses the break///Will try some theiving multiples but got to admit its pretty dire stuff..Khatm hacked up at Kempton,trainers from Newmarket so a 6 hour rpund trip,don't know whther it will go all that wa y after winning last night,that will be another non runner if it doesn't run,if you wanted a really speculatuve bet The Childrens Trust at 80/1 sky/victor 130 betfair in that race would have an ew squeak if it could run to its previous trainer form won two similar races on turf last season and been second here way back in 2018 off 75..Has changed trainers now with Ron Thompson,very rarely has winners and on long losing streak but been running over 5fs,wouldn't be a huge shock if it got in the frame
Newcastle 4.55
Busy street 6/1 generally generally 9s betfair Wise Eagle 9/1 365
Bust Street could be a false price as was third here to Caribeno,but they absolutely crawled round so that forms not reliable on face value,previous to that had run in three bumpers here winning two of them all the runs in 2021,so obvious ew chances the quickest of the bumper races it won Wise Eagle ran on the same day and the both ran similar times..Wise Eagle beaten by 131 rated Proschema,was with Tom Clover and won over a mile,showed nothing else till last two runs for new trainer the win and a seconf over this c/d in bumpers Adam Nichol he's only had 7 runners,this was his first winner.Billy Garitty is taking off 3 pound and has a 17% strke rate this season,hard to know whst to expect but a mark of 64 with c/d form could be ok,Cloud Thunder if it stays could be different class to these alreast seconfd here in a 0-85 and was placed on the turf in a 0-85 would add in for forecasts..
5.30
Warnes Army 9/4 hills/unibet 2/1 generally betfred going 3 places only 7 runners
Johnson trained Warne's Army has run some eyecatching races and them some abysmal runs,but has only had seven lifetime runs,was fourth at wolves in june in a 0-78 staying on over 1m1/2f dropped into similar races and bombed out..Then last time out out of the blue stepped up in trip different surface and won,have looked at the sire stats Southwell and Newcastle are identical but more interesting is the 14% strike rate over this trip..Its never run two decent races back to back,but mark looks ok with claimer taking off five down to 70 was rated 77 in the wolves race back in june..if it bombs out then Iconic Belle and A touch of Luck i can see running well,they've run well here in this grade before and it does look a weakish race of the Johnson horse bombs out completely.
6.0
Dragon Symbol 1/3 365/sky/hills/888sport
I wouldn't be surprised if this went off 1/6 even shorter,pity it hadn't opened a bit bigger wuld be a mostrous trading opportunity,i havn't been keeping times this season with covid and homeschooling but pretty sure this is the fastest debut of any runner at wolves this season..To put into context it clocked 1m13.44 on debut,visually didn't look that impressive which is what i like to see but was only first run and that time was only
.53 than the class 2 on the card won by Venturous off 103..With normal improvement you'd be expecting it now to go under that 1m13 time and if it does progress it could be a 95 horse maybe higher,somethings going to have to run to 100 so no reason to see why this won't be going off 1/6 maybe shorter..
7.0
Broctune Gold 9/4 generally skybet 4 places Antagonize 9/2 unibet/victor/hills 4/1 generally sky going 4 places
These two don't look well in but they wree 1st and 2nd when running against each other last time out,i think this race will be harder to win Antagonize tried to make all went 5ls clear was isolated on its own and Broctune Gold just closed him down..Tomorrow Antagonize is drawn higher so maybe will get the rail and there looks nothing betwen the two at revised weights..There are some well handicapped horses in here,but would be complete guesswork if they came back to form and they are being backed,theres very little value in these two ptrices but they shoud run well..
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8.0
Calonne 5/1 365
Calonne runs in the second division of the 0-65 mile races,he was sixth in Broctune Red and Antagonize race well beaten,very rarely wins there's very little value in the prices,drawn 10 and with David Nolan riding only jock to win on it hopefully given a positve ride..Geoffrey harkers had eight runners and two winners this season,David Nolans only had one ride but didoes have an 11% strike rate on the flat and goes to 12% on the aw..
Again looks more place chanes than anythng else,of the bigger priced ones Curfewed has loads of track form and could run well on a going day,won off 61 and 62 over c/d in 2020 now off 59..
Ashame trades 1.53 the rule is not allowed more than 4 winners aday,great day for me though with biggest bet of the year at swell.. .
8.30
Crantock Bay 17/2 skybet 5 places and other firms.
A 0-70 over 7fs,Crantock Bay second seven times tells the story 0/13 last four runs with a visor second three times and then last although jock reported banged its head leavng the stalls,it's gone off 3/1 and 7/4 in this grade in those races,positive if it gets out on ters drawn 12 negatuve is six weeks off and trainers only had 2/43 runners so could only be tentative..At some pint though it looks likeky to win in this grade or maybe dropped into slightly easier..In The Cove has become well handicapped has only runhere once was third in a 0-75 classified stakes,last win on the aw was off 71,ran well at kempton over a mile last time out in a decent time,a mark of 65 would be good if the surface suits,sires 12% on the surface and 13% over the trip so could well suit..around 12/1..Eldebar bit disapppointing last two runs,but should still run well in this grade ,drops in class another for firecasts/saver
A sickening blow in the last cantering over the field Crantock bay,wouldv'e sluiced in..
Southwell 3.0
Star Act 5/2 generally Daddies Diva 10/30 generally
Dogs dinner race 0-50 classified stakes,there's very little to go on recent form a couple in here that could well win this race if coming back to form like First Excel would be a strong favourite,but been running terrible...So will try Daddies Diva horse is very poor but ran first ever race here over 7fs last time out,was a far better race than this 0-50 led to the furlong pole drops back a furlong to 6fs and has a decent draw,that was a 0-60 so should hit the frame..The other Karl Burke trains has bought it from Adrian Mcguiness,don't quite understand Burke buying a horse as poor as this looks fairly useles although did come third in a 3yr old handicap over 6fs at lingfield gets the allowances of 50 and below older horses..If it goes on the surface,then again looks obvious place chances at worst,.
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