Daily picks.

I've missed 3 this week through prices off my to follows and there's only about 15 on it that ones been on there since it won at sandown was only .40 slower than ajdaad but couldv'e won by another 5/6ls so looked a 90+ horse over 5fs.When you think everyday the books price up those class 4s couldv'e easily have taken 7s was waiting for bigger prices,just some speculative trades tomorrow as i'm not even sure any of its going to be on.


The way the ground is at sandown best to look for c/d runners on the going and spa dancer looks perfect for the race even though its the flat v jumps jockey race 14s looks very big on his two runs over c/d.A win off 75 by 4 1/2ls over c/d in august when like tomorrow will come standside and again from a poor draw when third off 81 to first post drawn 14 prominent from the off lots of 80+ horses behind in a better race than this.He was only 15/2 in that race and as he is guaranteed to go on the track and going the negative may only be the jockey looks a decent price.
 
1pt trade follow the flag 14/1 ppwer was 20/1:blink:

Big drifter out at 22.
 
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1pt trade chesters aristocrat 10/1 365 i've taken 12s,only book up.

Out at 7.6 infront on the day despite the big drift on follow the flag.
 
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Imaginery world is the biggest price she has been since running at goodwood in a decent handicap behind askaud last season off 73,her most eyecatching run last season when she was off 76 behind shesastar.She was trapped in with 2fs to go and was nearestt finish a massive eyecatcher,with a clear run she may not have won but wouldv'e finished very close to the winner.Lots of horses rated in the 80s and 90s were still behind her plus that was only her second ever run on soft ground,she went onto win off 76 in the same grade as this and she is priced up on her last two runs,one of which was seasonal debut over 1m2fs.If she runs anywhere near her form previous to those two runs she'd be a 6/7/1 shot in this race,will be interesting to see if there's much money for her and i will be watching the race closely for future runs as on that york run she is capable of better even off higher marks.
 
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Follow the flag hasn't won on the flat for two seasons and probably won't tomorrow but is still overpriced at 14s,a second to miss aix off 71 looks reasonable form compared to tomorrows race everything in behind was rated the equivalent of tomorrows runners.Guaranteed to go on the ground lots of others in the race need to prove themselves on the ground and some on turf form as well,a line through veiled applause there shouldn't be much between the fav amazing blue sky and media hype and follow the flag.I would think follow the flag will kept being backed as it still looks value compared to the other two priced at 11/4 and 5/1.
 
The maiden that chester aristocrat ran in,was won by born to surprise and although beaten in a group three last time out i think that particular horse will be winning a nice handicap before the seasons out as the ground was on the slow side at newmarket.There was nothing wrong with the time of the maiden the time was quicker than both the older handicaps won by karaka jack and mujadel on the same card,running on to be nearest finish was the eric alston trained chester aristocrat a big eye catcher back in 4th tomorrows step up in trip looks ideal.Already the 9th from the race nordic quest has won off 69 on monday at windsor and will be a race to follow for lower grade handicaps, a lot of these 3yr old handicaps are so weak its hard to weigh up the form so a mark of 68 must have a good chance if going on the ground as i can't see anything on the clock in this race.I can't see this going unbacked after that eyecatching run and even though the 12s has gone 10s still looks value.
 
Dolphin rock has, a record on soft ground of 3/1/5/2/2/2 has run 22 tiimes on turf winning twice but placed second 8 times and third 3 times.Last run on soft ground at ripon was 2nd of 17 to stevie thunder off 84 over c/d beating lots of horses rated in the high 80s and high 90s and infact having dubai dynamo,silvery moon,moheeb and city of kings runners in tomorrows race.That form would entitle him to be a decent fav in this race and so would the iother only c/d run when second to pleasent day off 82 again jonny lesters hair 5ls adrift another of tomorrows runners.
Debut run this season was probably his poorest run for sometime but maybe back to ripon will suit where his two best runs have been the handicapper has been unrelenting but barrons horses are running well two winners today.
He will undoubtedly be backed as his ground and course form are so solid so have had a small ew as well.
 
Spitfire could quite easily go off fav in this race,runs off lowest ever turf mark and that allows him to run for the fast time in a race for horses up to 71.Has won four times on turf twice on soft ground one of them was heavy his last win at folkestone off 84,hanagan takes the ride hasn't rode him for four seasons but the three times he has rode him won once and placed once.He ended last season running third off 72 to silenzio on soft ground at folkestone the winner is now off 77 and the second flameoftheforest runs off 81 also had a couple of 70 rated horses in behind.He's drawn 10 which on this ground will be a slight advantage over the low draws will run up the centre and farside,if he runs to anywhere near his last turf run then he should be fav for this.I would be very surprised if he's not backed and at least a decent trade as these lot are poor and if he doesn't run well on seasonal debut will be going in the notebook as he's capable of better than these.
 
Wolves 7.25 Wicked Spirit 7/2
Wolves 8.25 Jinker Noble 10/1

Trades?


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I've already done jinker noble at 14/1 and i've backed it again at 10/1,could be a huge gamble though as the race doesn't look that great.Last season beat glen moss a length now rated 81,but the third desert philosopher ran behind him was 8th of 16 in that really competitve race behind es que love at newmarket off 83.Don't know about the johnston horse as i don't know the irish formlines.
 
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He was beaten 7 1/2 lengths in Dundalk off of 70 by Absaab who is now rated 93 after winning off of 88 last Sunday. He's thrown in tomorrow off 66. Also his run behind Justification is solid. Justification was a big plunge on the day (St Nicholas Abbey lead horse at home). Could see him being a 7/4 shot tomorrow if off.

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This is not for your benefit gigilo (nothing you won't already know) but came across this on Twitter and thought it was interesting.


Apr 29 20:52Cox Really Likes This Horse
8:25 Wolverhampton
30/04 20:25

Clive horse really likes Jinker Noble and says its has improved lots and will make a good three year old

Was in a decent race last time bit needed the run and had the worst draw out wide so ignore that run and expect much better here

Should be suited to sand and looks the best horse in the race but has to give weight away bit is 2lb lower then its last run and looks well handicapped to me and we will see why Clive Cox rates it highly and will be better then a class four handicapper

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1pt trade sea soldier 14/1 hills will back again if bigger enormous price on turf form!!

If this was firm ground over 7fs i'd make this fav,this fellas only had 6 runs and still looks unexposed on his gd/fm form,his 3rd to whitefrost stands head and shoulders above any form in thi race hopefully it will be picked up on as on that form cannot possibly be 14/1.White frost went onto win off 86,then took on the older horses running third to golden desert off 92 and eighth of 29 to edinburugh knight only beaten 2 3/4ls.The second from the newmaket race forjatt a nose recent infront of sea soldier now runs off 102 recent second in jebel ali.The fourth ahlaain is now off 100 recent second to plantagenent and the fifth el viento runs off 91 recent sixth to colonel mak.Regarless of tomorrrows run,he sits on a mark of 84 and looks very well handicapped on tuf and adefinite to follow this season on gd/fm ground.Will be very interesting to see the betting tomorrow as that form is far superior to these bur no aw form and long lay off will see what happens with the trade
 
Mutafaakir will take all the beating if repeating the run behind born to surprise beaten 5 1/2ls was given a nice introduction by hanagan,coming home in his own time as no vhance of beating the winner which looks a 100 horse and will be winning a nice handicap.The race was .44 quicker than karaka jacks following handicap off 81 22 runners and the same time as mujaadel winning off 74 off 8-10 so the 3yr old maiden compares quite favourably it would point to him being around the mid 80s with the older horses.

There is very little form to go on in todays maiden so it looks like something is going to have to run to a mark of 90 to win,possible and you would count yourself unlucky if this were to happen in an aw maiden as horses with times as strong as this probably get beat one in twenty.The 2/1 obviously presents a bit of value baring in mind how often he would get beat.
 
I've been watching the market for the 7.25. The price on Wicked Spirit had dipped down to 4.5 for fives and tenners but all of a sudden there are 3 figure sums lined up both sides at 4.2 to back 4.3 to lay. Has a tipping line but it up or are the commission agents playing?
 
gigilo said:
1pt trade sea soldier 14/1 hills will back again if bigger enormous price on turf form!!

If this was firm ground over 7fs i'd make this fav,this fellas only had 6 runs and still looks unexposed on his gd/fm form,his 3rd to whitefrost stands head and shoulders above any form in thi race hopefully it will be picked up on as on that form cannot possibly be 14/1.White frost went onto win off 86,then took on the older horses running third to golden desert off 92 and eighth of 29 to edinburugh knight only beaten 2 3/4ls.The second from the newmaket race forjatt a nose recent infront of sea soldier now runs off 102 recent second in jebel ali.The fourth ahlaain is now off 100 recent second to plantagenent and the fifth el viento runs off 91 recent sixth to colonel mak.Regarless of tomorrrows run,he sits on a mark of 84 and looks very well handicapped on tuf and adefinite to follow this season on gd/fm ground.Will be very interesting to see the betting tomorrow as that form is far superior to these bur no aw form and long lay off will see what happens with the trade
Click to expand...

Out at 10.0:ninja:
 
1pt trade baby dottie 8/1 365

Put it on here last time out i've already backed it at 10/1,was a big gamble from 14s into 9/2 not worth risking ew so will trade off if decent gamble and leave a bit running on!!
 
Been off work sick today and put a few quid into the betfair account.I have gone for a fairly decent place lay of Goldstorm in the 625.As I see it the negatives are you have a filly running after 4 days from a wide draw ridden by a journeyman jockey riding against some top table jocks.Last time she beat a horse of Flames called Resplendent Alpha who was having it's 15th run since November-a horse that doesn't always see out it's races.Could win easy but I have to take it on.
 
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