Daily picks.

icebreaker said:
Yes, ................ and yes. To both. !
Slim, I was lucky enough to swerve the other trade thanks to Bet365 not wanting to entertain any business from me for quite some time now. :p
Saying that, I genuinely suggest that 90% of the trades advised by the thread originator have been profitable. (It helps to read between the lines of his analyses; separates the good 'uns from the maybe's).
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Right. I've never disputed that. I just balance up the thread because I like being pedantic. Any reference to lemmings etc is meant to be light hearted. I know you're making the trades pay and I respect your patience and discipline in following the thread. My posts are being interpreted to the extreme.
 
gigilo said:
Chosen character has the best proven form in the race and really this is a drop in class on his best form,this is his lowest mark since winning off 70 last season beating prince of burma by 5ls big improver and recent 5th in the spring mile off 88 just behind spring cup winner captain bertie.He then followed this up with another win off 76 over tomorrows c/d beating tasfeya rated 80,his best run was his next third to bertie whittle at chester over 7fs on soft ground totally different class form to anything in tomorrows race.That race had horses such as kingscroft,waking warrior,fred willetts all at least 4l behind,went on to disappoint in his later runs but even those were still bettter class than tomorrows even his third to uppercut off76 with older higher rated horses in behind.Tomorrow he heads the weights off 74,his seasonal debut was quite interesting as the first four that led the race at catterick filled the first four places,he finished 5th to be nearest finish that was over 7fs as well he need the mile,also he went without the visor which he's had on both times he's won and back on again tomorrow.

Richard kingscote is back on top won on him both times,but not rode him the last four runs he likes the c/d proven over it twice off higher marks,the only question mark you could have against him is why he hasn't run on soft ground more often.If he runs to any of his form and the stable are trying there should be loads of money for him as the rest are at the uppermost of their marks,the most interesting runner has to be o'mearas edmaaj when runner up at chester having ventura sands 6 3/4ls behind that said horse is now off 72 and will be interesting to see if its backed after a 590 day lay off!!
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Presumably this drifted because of the going concerns and is one for the notebook on good ground? Likely to be smashed up when he gets it. The danger horse was second too. Do the lemmings do forecasts?
 
Have you done Southwell this afternoon giggsy, looks a decent card.
Quite fancy Bonnie prince blue to turn over the fav in the last, 9/2 with some books looks too big to me.
In the 7.40 i can see Jupiter Fidius running a big race, hasn't got any sthwll form to compare with but i thought ran a very eyecatching race at Newcastle and hopefully should suit this surface, Rub of the relic is another that i think will run a good race, good C/D form and Midgeleys running well now.
Expect you've done a few p/pots?
 
Rise to Glory returns to the AW surface tonight after a decisive win at Newcastle and hope that it was the step up to 7fs that brought about the improvement rather than the soft going, being out of Kings Best i hope its the former. This looks a worse race than the one he won and with Butlers horse sure to shore up the market i think the improving Rise to glory can follow up at a fair price. Any thoughts anyone?
 
Meta-posts moved to another thread as sensibly suggested. Seems like plenty enjoy dipping in here for actual picks (and discussion of them) so would be good to get it back on track.
 
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Probably the betting will reflect oojoobas chances in this race as she sits on a mark of only 82,her debut win she looked more like a 100 horse now she's running in a handicap off a mark where she beat a same rated rival by 2 1/2ls but couldv'e been 10ls.The further they went the better she looked,the maiden was a second quicker than the following maiden on the card and only 1.31 seconds slower than skilful winning off 93 in the older handicap if she'd run in that race she wouldv'e finished 4th infront of horses rated in the high 80s and 90s.The form of her maiden hasn't worked out but she looked a class apart and if she doesn't show tomorrow i will be following her on soft ground as there will obviously be a big handicap in her somewhere during the season.Daneking also looks well in on the haydock running only slightly slower than the older aged handicap there putting him on a mark in the mid 70s with them on his 2yr old run,probably the one to win if oojooba doesn't show!!
One for the to follows if you want to note down,got to be better than a mark of 82 could be plotted for a big handicap.
 
What i was actually doing was moaning about pearl blue 9/2,i was hoping i was going to see 10/1 off my to follows from last year i think its probably a mid 90s horse.They're going 9/2 rafaf and blue pearl absolute joke.
 
I'm with you. The worse thing that can happen is one firm pricing up early or overnight and punters taking whatever price is there. If its left untouched you'll invariably get better elsewhere. How used you do when it was morning prices only?


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It's worse when the only firm to have anything up is Betfair IMO - by that I mean the only place you can take a price.

My biggest bug bear is punters taking the early fivers and tenners on Betfair or the same amounts available with Boylesports and Bet365 on the overnight markets. What would ordinarily open up as a 5/2 shot is now opening 6/4 and the 5/4 chances are 10/11 etc.

Good luck tomorrow Gigilo :)

Martin
 
Before all these early prices you could bet just before the off on a lot of races but thats the best part of fifteen years ago.Before i had my daughter i spent most of the time driving round and putting bets on in books,especially hills shops.
 
Martin,

Rather than complain you should use this information to your advantage. Do you remember the price the Christy Roche horse and KP's horse opened with Bet365 the day the Oxx horse beat Alhaay in Gowran Park? Both 6/1. Overnight prices stop that sort of manipulation which can be done with a balance of €200 overnight.


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gigilo said:
Before all these early prices you could bet just before the off on a lot of races but thats the best part of fifteen years ago.Before i had my daughter i spent most of the time driving round and putting bets on in books,especially hills shops.
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The sign of a good punter is adjusting I suppose.
 
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