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SlimChance
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Blue De Vega cost it's new owners 1.5 million. How is it odds against tomorrow?
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- Thread starter gigilo
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Blue De Vega cost it's new owners 1.5 million. How is it odds against tomorrow?
gigilo
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Probably because the better O'Brien 2yr olds have improved after a couple of runs,interesting race to see how the form works out as tribal beat has 4 1/2ls to find on their run previously but blue de vega could've won 10ls, it looked to me as though tribal beat improved maybe for the ground last time out so will be interesting to see the distance between those two tomorrow.Lots of 2yr olds this season that have looked decent have since flopped leaving a crop of poor looking 2yr olds,compared to most years like air force blue any other yesr he'd be a 6/1 shot with at least 1/2 dozen other runners running to a similar level,it just shows you the poor quantity of quality horses around for him to be 5/4 to win a 2000..
gigilo
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Doncaster Result
23 Oct 2015
« 2:35 » BETDAQ 2% COMMISSION BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Soft
£3,234.50, £962.50, £481.00, £240.50
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 11 Royal Artillery (USA) EvensF 2 9-5 John Gosden — * *
Frankie Dettori
2 8 2½ Wild Hacked (USA) 40/1 2 9-5 Marco Botti — * *
Tom Queally
3 12 4½ Philadelphia (IRE) 16/1 2 9-5 Roger Varian — * *
Frederik Tylicki
« 4 2 ¾ Briyouni (FR) 12/1 2 9-5 Kevin Ryan — * *
Graham Lee
5 10 1 D'Niro (IRE) 12/1 2 9-5 Harry Dunlop — * *
Steve Drowne
6 13 1¾ He's My Cracker 50/1 2 9-5 Clive Cox — * *
Oisin Murphy
7 7 nse Kalkrand (IRE) 8/1 2 9-5 John Gosden — * *
Robert Havlin
« 8 3 nk Mr Globetrotter (USA) 20/1 2 9-5 Michael Dods — * *
Paul Mulrennan
« 9 4 11 Night To Remember (IRE) 7/2 2 9-5 Ralph Beckett — * *
Martin Lane
10 6 1¾ Blaze Of Hearts (IRE) 25/1 2 9-5 Dean Ivory — * *
Robert Winston
11 1 3½ Touched By Love (USA) 100/1 2 9-2 Ismail Mohammed — * *
Thomas Brown3
« 12 5 8 Rob's Legacy 125/1 2 9-0 Shaun Harris — * *
Jordan Nason5
« 13 9 38 Rio Glamorous 125/1 2 9-5 t Roy Bowring — * *
Raul Da Silva
13 ran TIME 1m 29.22s (slow by 5.92s)
Royal artillery 25/1 skybet 20/1 generally 2000 guineas
An impressive winner visually 450,000usd out of war front high class dirt runner over 6-7fs on dirt 118 and the dam was rated 106 wion a grade 3 on gd/fm,not a lot to go on clockwise but looked more like a 3yr old the way he travelled and came from off the pace looking to have plenty of scope it's not a given ground would've suited either so the win maty be even better than first appears.Obviously is a speculative bet for next season,but I don't like the 2yr olds this season so looking for something that has potential and he's looked as good as anything on a debut run,i very much doubt runners in the 2000 with proven form already are going to amount to much so I think its wotrth having a small bet on yet another gosden horse that could be anything.Also I like to keep these potential dirt horses onside as well just incase they become good enough to go to the breeders,this season don't think I've mentioned anything about the breeders so will have him noted even if he doesn't show up for the guineas..
23 Oct 2015
« 2:35 » BETDAQ 2% COMMISSION BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES
(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Soft
£3,234.50, £962.50, £481.00, £240.50
RESULTRATE RACE
Show all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 11 Royal Artillery (USA) EvensF 2 9-5 John Gosden — * *
Frankie Dettori
2 8 2½ Wild Hacked (USA) 40/1 2 9-5 Marco Botti — * *
Tom Queally
3 12 4½ Philadelphia (IRE) 16/1 2 9-5 Roger Varian — * *
Frederik Tylicki
« 4 2 ¾ Briyouni (FR) 12/1 2 9-5 Kevin Ryan — * *
Graham Lee
5 10 1 D'Niro (IRE) 12/1 2 9-5 Harry Dunlop — * *
Steve Drowne
6 13 1¾ He's My Cracker 50/1 2 9-5 Clive Cox — * *
Oisin Murphy
7 7 nse Kalkrand (IRE) 8/1 2 9-5 John Gosden — * *
Robert Havlin
« 8 3 nk Mr Globetrotter (USA) 20/1 2 9-5 Michael Dods — * *
Paul Mulrennan
« 9 4 11 Night To Remember (IRE) 7/2 2 9-5 Ralph Beckett — * *
Martin Lane
10 6 1¾ Blaze Of Hearts (IRE) 25/1 2 9-5 Dean Ivory — * *
Robert Winston
11 1 3½ Touched By Love (USA) 100/1 2 9-2 Ismail Mohammed — * *
Thomas Brown3
« 12 5 8 Rob's Legacy 125/1 2 9-0 Shaun Harris — * *
Jordan Nason5
« 13 9 38 Rio Glamorous 125/1 2 9-5 t Roy Bowring — * *
Raul Da Silva
13 ran TIME 1m 29.22s (slow by 5.92s)
Royal artillery 25/1 skybet 20/1 generally 2000 guineas
An impressive winner visually 450,000usd out of war front high class dirt runner over 6-7fs on dirt 118 and the dam was rated 106 wion a grade 3 on gd/fm,not a lot to go on clockwise but looked more like a 3yr old the way he travelled and came from off the pace looking to have plenty of scope it's not a given ground would've suited either so the win maty be even better than first appears.Obviously is a speculative bet for next season,but I don't like the 2yr olds this season so looking for something that has potential and he's looked as good as anything on a debut run,i very much doubt runners in the 2000 with proven form already are going to amount to much so I think its wotrth having a small bet on yet another gosden horse that could be anything.Also I like to keep these potential dirt horses onside as well just incase they become good enough to go to the breeders,this season don't think I've mentioned anything about the breeders so will have him noted even if he doesn't show up for the guineas..
gigilo
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The gay cavalier
Not subtle booking Kirby for this ride when horse blatantly running over the wrong trip giving these 10ls start and although finished 6ls behind in 8th was nearest finish with no clear run at the moment looks thrown in off 68,last season improved won of 70,74 and then 80 then was 4th of 7 to tryster off 86 so mark has come crashing down.Alot of punters picked up on the mark at Chelmsford something like 16/1 opening pruices but the trip was far to short no form over a mile,so really needed a nice run down fioeld again to take that eyecatching run away so today egan booked and over wrong trip at Windsor so now should be some noce value switchedback to the aw.He could appear at Kempton again as but looks like he handles all the aw tracks,hasn't run at swell they may even try getting him down to 65 which would make him look virtually unbeatable back over 1m2fs off 65.He will get overpriced as the books are clueless pricing these tyopes up and you could see 16s for a horse that should be 3-4/1 running over 1m2fs...
12/1 lads 11/1 victor
Bit surprised out so quick only ran Monday,still have to back it at these prices and should be a decent trade anyway could well halve in price at the very least,race looks wide open unless the gay cavalier runs somewhere near....
10/1 hills/lads
At prices I expected 6/1 now,cracking trading opportunity wouldn't even surprise me if it went even shorter yet..
Not subtle booking Kirby for this ride when horse blatantly running over the wrong trip giving these 10ls start and although finished 6ls behind in 8th was nearest finish with no clear run at the moment looks thrown in off 68,last season improved won of 70,74 and then 80 then was 4th of 7 to tryster off 86 so mark has come crashing down.Alot of punters picked up on the mark at Chelmsford something like 16/1 opening pruices but the trip was far to short no form over a mile,so really needed a nice run down fioeld again to take that eyecatching run away so today egan booked and over wrong trip at Windsor so now should be some noce value switchedback to the aw.He could appear at Kempton again as but looks like he handles all the aw tracks,hasn't run at swell they may even try getting him down to 65 which would make him look virtually unbeatable back over 1m2fs off 65.He will get overpriced as the books are clueless pricing these tyopes up and you could see 16s for a horse that should be 3-4/1 running over 1m2fs...
12/1 lads 11/1 victor
Bit surprised out so quick only ran Monday,still have to back it at these prices and should be a decent trade anyway could well halve in price at the very least,race looks wide open unless the gay cavalier runs somewhere near....
10/1 hills/lads
At prices I expected 6/1 now,cracking trading opportunity wouldn't even surprise me if it went even shorter yet..
S
SlimChance
Guest
The Derby market is crying out for us to back something. There must be a bet in there.
S
SlimChance
Guest
Could Midterm be the one?
gigilo
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Too much effort to guess over the middle distances especially with this years bunch the only reason I've looked at the guineas races next year is the races don't look that great or competitive so thought it was worth a couple of bets especially with the air force blue being so short..
S
SlimChance
Guest
Good point. The Derby horse could come from anywhere, Wolverhampton even...
gigilo
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I have been looking out for something and at the obscurer races at wolves like that 1.1 million usd one of gosdens the other night as soon as I saw entry was thinking jack hobbs,wasn't that impressive but the aw has thrown up zilch this year been terrible year for 2yr olds on the aw and on turf where you can say that's going to be a group 1 horse necxt season.Very disappointing season 2yr olds wise which is what makes it interesting for me..
gigilo
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Alben star 14/1 corals Aw sprint championships
Alben star was runner uop in this last year to Pretend current 6/1 fav,did well to finish off the pace after giving the field 6ls start and the pace held up with chookie royale leading and prtend tracking pace throughout finishing 3rd and 1st,the winner looked to have a bit in hand but hasn't been seen since beaten 17ls at Windsor in june so would have to leave him even though could still be the most progressive on the aw.Alben star hadn't run since april when 2nd in this corresponding race then ran in the Beverley bullet was big eyecatcher cantering at furlong pole getting no run,doubt he wouldv;'e won but would've been a length within winner and that would've been a cracking run after lay off over a trip too short.He retains his ability at 7 and although there are 3/4 other runners that could be open to improvement on the aw he's 6 points bigger than last years second so looka bit of value at prices,vcertainly will be thereabouts regardless of opposition..
Naadirr 10/1 corals
Naadirrs run some decent races this season not the easiest to win with but in recent runs has looked to be hitting the form of 3yr old season when 3rd to tropics and music master is only a 4yr old with 15 time runs so could still yet be more to come.If this were a turf race you wouldn't be getting 10/1,marco botti trains so another positive and with the recent 4th to limato 2nd in a group 3 to eastern impact then 5th in the champion sprint at ascot,any transference of that form onto these surfaces would have to on the short list.
Alben star was runner uop in this last year to Pretend current 6/1 fav,did well to finish off the pace after giving the field 6ls start and the pace held up with chookie royale leading and prtend tracking pace throughout finishing 3rd and 1st,the winner looked to have a bit in hand but hasn't been seen since beaten 17ls at Windsor in june so would have to leave him even though could still be the most progressive on the aw.Alben star hadn't run since april when 2nd in this corresponding race then ran in the Beverley bullet was big eyecatcher cantering at furlong pole getting no run,doubt he wouldv;'e won but would've been a length within winner and that would've been a cracking run after lay off over a trip too short.He retains his ability at 7 and although there are 3/4 other runners that could be open to improvement on the aw he's 6 points bigger than last years second so looka bit of value at prices,vcertainly will be thereabouts regardless of opposition..
Naadirr 10/1 corals
Naadirrs run some decent races this season not the easiest to win with but in recent runs has looked to be hitting the form of 3yr old season when 3rd to tropics and music master is only a 4yr old with 15 time runs so could still yet be more to come.If this were a turf race you wouldn't be getting 10/1,marco botti trains so another positive and with the recent 4th to limato 2nd in a group 3 to eastern impact then 5th in the champion sprint at ascot,any transference of that form onto these surfaces would have to on the short list.
gigilo
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Gm Hopkins 10/1 corals easter classic
Gm Hopkins might be worth a small bet he is still improviong,second off highest mark in balmoral at ascot and now upto 112 he's out of dubawi one of the most consistent sires on all surfaces and variet of trips,he's never won over this far but no reason to think it won't suit and rarely are these 1m2fs races true stamina tests anyway.The dam varsity was also a winner on the surface winning over 1m2fs at Dundalk and she improved from a mid 80s horse at 5 to achieve a mark of 102 on the turf and 99 on the aw,so a few more positives for Gm Hopkins.Going through the entrys again it looks like tryster has the beating of everything in the race has either beaten them,or beaten horses that have beaten other runners on the aw there iosn't one horse in the race that has a formline on the aw that entitles it to beat tryster but that's reflected in price at 2/1.
Gm Hopkins is still open to improvement,has to prove himself on the aw but as the other runners look exposed on surface he probably won't have to improve much at all to beat most of these clock wise and formwise the field just don't look great on the aw,so think its worth chancing yet another gosden horse,there's plenty of prize money on offer now for these races and can't really see why he won't take his chances against exposed horses...
Gm Hopkins might be worth a small bet he is still improviong,second off highest mark in balmoral at ascot and now upto 112 he's out of dubawi one of the most consistent sires on all surfaces and variet of trips,he's never won over this far but no reason to think it won't suit and rarely are these 1m2fs races true stamina tests anyway.The dam varsity was also a winner on the surface winning over 1m2fs at Dundalk and she improved from a mid 80s horse at 5 to achieve a mark of 102 on the turf and 99 on the aw,so a few more positives for Gm Hopkins.Going through the entrys again it looks like tryster has the beating of everything in the race has either beaten them,or beaten horses that have beaten other runners on the aw there iosn't one horse in the race that has a formline on the aw that entitles it to beat tryster but that's reflected in price at 2/1.
Gm Hopkins is still open to improvement,has to prove himself on the aw but as the other runners look exposed on surface he probably won't have to improve much at all to beat most of these clock wise and formwise the field just don't look great on the aw,so think its worth chancing yet another gosden horse,there's plenty of prize money on offer now for these races and can't really see why he won't take his chances against exposed horses...
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gigilo
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Suegioo 12/1 corals Aw marathon
Improved the 6yr old this sesson,been competing in very competitive races been 5th in Northumberland plate,4th in listed race at sandown,,third to litigant in the ebor giving it 5 pound litigants 6/1 for this specific race half the price of suegioo,a third to pallasator in a group 2 at Donny and then a 6th of 15 at ascot again in group 2 behind flying officer on sioft ground probably wouldn't have suited.Hidden gold was also in that race nk in front of suegioo receiving 3 pound he's priced at 5/1 fav for this marathon series I also quite like him as well as has looked a natural on the surface but as suegioo looks as good as anything and has equally good form,plus marco botti trains the 12/1 looks a decent price based on last few runs even though seemingly exposed at beginning of the season.He's run once on the aw at lingfield winning a maiden by 9ls so no worrys on surface either..
Improved the 6yr old this sesson,been competing in very competitive races been 5th in Northumberland plate,4th in listed race at sandown,,third to litigant in the ebor giving it 5 pound litigants 6/1 for this specific race half the price of suegioo,a third to pallasator in a group 2 at Donny and then a 6th of 15 at ascot again in group 2 behind flying officer on sioft ground probably wouldn't have suited.Hidden gold was also in that race nk in front of suegioo receiving 3 pound he's priced at 5/1 fav for this marathon series I also quite like him as well as has looked a natural on the surface but as suegioo looks as good as anything and has equally good form,plus marco botti trains the 12/1 looks a decent price based on last few runs even though seemingly exposed at beginning of the season.He's run once on the aw at lingfield winning a maiden by 9ls so no worrys on surface either..
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gigilo
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Don't be aw fillies and mares 8/1 corals
Don't be looks a little bit of value improved as a 4yr old last season going from a mark of 82 on the aw to 97 was third in the race last year to freles priced at 6/1 and lamar todays winner at lingfield now 3/1 fav,that price looks very short although freles and lamar are lightkly raced and still open to improvement.Fresles made all lsst season has loads iof early pace and if the draw ends up kind then looks the one to beat,the race though at least on aw form does look very weak don't be gets outpaced in most of these aw races and may now need a mile but she's not 3/1 this year she's 8/1 so looks a bit iof value as nothing separated the 3 last season.Also the previous run at wolves in the wulfruna was decent giving the field 6ls start and getting stopped on rail to be 6th to seoverign debt,chookie royale,glen moss,al thakira and grey mirage probably at least a length better than that form.She will be a lot shorter on the day if she shows herself to be in form before the race in march,she could well be 3/4-/1 again..
Don't be looks a little bit of value improved as a 4yr old last season going from a mark of 82 on the aw to 97 was third in the race last year to freles priced at 6/1 and lamar todays winner at lingfield now 3/1 fav,that price looks very short although freles and lamar are lightkly raced and still open to improvement.Fresles made all lsst season has loads iof early pace and if the draw ends up kind then looks the one to beat,the race though at least on aw form does look very weak don't be gets outpaced in most of these aw races and may now need a mile but she's not 3/1 this year she's 8/1 so looks a bit iof value as nothing separated the 3 last season.Also the previous run at wolves in the wulfruna was decent giving the field 6ls start and getting stopped on rail to be 6th to seoverign debt,chookie royale,glen moss,al thakira and grey mirage probably at least a length better than that form.She will be a lot shorter on the day if she shows herself to be in form before the race in march,she could well be 3/4-/1 again..
EC1
On a break
seychellouise tonight G..are you on?
comes out the best horse from pharmacutical race after pace mark up applied...looks well in by about 10lbs on my calcs
comes out the best horse from pharmacutical race after pace mark up applied...looks well in by about 10lbs on my calcs
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gigilo
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KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKAAAAAABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!1
Didn't even know it was running today till this morning so an extra bonus,yes ec got this is double with it 7/2 and 3s lets hopw lukey boy hasn't knocked the stuffing out of it..
Won't be 8/1 after this run looks better than ever,looked rock solid form...
Sea Pigeon
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Top man Gigs, gagged up
EC1
On a break
disappointing ride..slow out..rushed up on outside,,went wide into straight..wasted its advantage..will give it one more go..its a shame as i had it in doubles and a treble with supersta + hit it a bomb
gigilo
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gigilo
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Done little preview at swell poor card first meeting back but interesting to see how track rides..
12.40
Poor race Schottische has never run in this grade before at swell and it at best would be a strong fav winning off 57 last season in better race than this but has always been pretty unreliable but chance is there to see over this c/d.Incurs four faults looked an improver last sesson winning off 61 at hamilton looked progressive at lowly level then went backwards,hasn't recaptured that form this season on the turf and has gone down to 53 even struggling off that mark.The positive is the last run over 6fs here was in a maiden against red primo back in april 2014 anything remoptely near that run and the way the horse runs from the front would have a great chsnce in this very poor race,possibility of big gamble if stable think horse is better on this surface as was certainly the case in 2014..
Incurs four faults,Schottische
1.10
The probability is one of the lightly raced horses will be better than the course form runners but as they havn't run here then the two c/d winners general tufto now aged 10 and roger thorpe would be the ones to look at,general tufto was very consistent last season even runs well in better races than this when mood takes him but dependant on a strong pace.He hasn't run in this grade since jan 2015 winning twice off 51 then 58 getting upton 70,if he retains ability he could run well in this terrible race and he may yet win again this season over this c/d.
Roger thorpe beat general tutfo when winning off 60 may 2014 and a 3rd off 62 in the following december against different class horses to these over c/d,deborah sanderson trains with egan booked could be a gamble as trainer does ok on the aw and the horse likes the surface.Runs in this grade for the first time also..
Roger thorpe,General tufto
1.40
Impossible looking handicap plenty look to have chances on course form and quite a few have run against each other,just because of draw a token pick with caras request finished well behind be royale l;ast season over c/d but has big pull in the weights but may get to lead from 1 draw and will be a big price.Solar spirit has never run at swell before is off falling mark and been running in better races than this on the turf,likes catterick is drawn wide but may suit he is still capable of winning in this weaker grade and could be a decent price.I wouldn't rule out piceno either thrown in on last years second to two moons over c/d off 75 and runs of lowest ever aw mark tomorrow of 64 has shown vert litle this season although scott dixon usually gets them right for the aw season would be surprised if piceno doesn't pop up at swell over the next 5/6 months and get overlooked.The negative for him and caras request is that llewellyn the 3 of them will be taking each other on so will need the track to be favouring front runners..
Caras request,Solar spirit.Piceno...
2.10
No form to g on so maybe worth looking at the lightly raced ones mick appleby has a runner out of decent sire elusive pimpernel been running over 5 and 6fs you would imagine even this bare 7fs would be a minimum on pedigree off just a mark of 60 looks interesting in a terribl;e race,sires only had 6 runners on the aw 3 have won and an roi of 277%.Mango chutney ran well in a better race than this last time out against far higher rated horeses,out of sleeping indian could well take to the surface and with unfashionable trainer that has few winners may get over[priced in a very poor race..
Mollies girl,Mango chutney
2.40
Nothing really to go on and some interesting runners on pedigree out of decent sires that look to be running over far to short a trips so a few in here worth looking out for in future,there's very little form to go on otherwise.Belle mare plage ran in what looks a reasonable maiden at windsor seems unlikely maiden winner but has the experiebnce so could be interesting and george baker rides for david brown and Andrew mullen rides another his runners always worth a seconfd look especially in what could be a weak maiden and with a fair few runners needing further..
Belle mare page,Bit of a lad,Time again
3.10
Brassbound looks obvious starting point,he's not looking well handicapped now but there maybe another race to be won on this surface beat lexington bay by 3ls last run here,that runner went on to win by 6ls next time out if he's going to win again will be this race as looks very weak on paper.The quarter jack sire has decent strike rate on fibresand out of haafhd has never run on the surface yet so might run well
at a big price if fav is very short..
Brassbound,The quarterjack
The quarterjack has run at swell was second off 73 over 1m6fs that form doesn't amount to much but still respectable in context of race...
3.40
Hard to make a strong case for anything in this race the gary moore horse was a group horse in 2014 now running in a claimer,has shown nothing in 12 months and this looks desperation stakes they will have knowhere to go if not winning this,was a glimmer of form last time out although very slowly run race at kempton.Usually these are good races for an ew bet as horses like Dabidiyan frequently flop on surface but this race is fuill of horses that have flopped themselves on the surface so even finding an ew alternative is guessing,northside prince possibly the one that might fill a place very hard to predict though..
Dabidiyan,Northside prince
4.10
Similar to the claimer the few that have form look unreliable,lamps of heaven started with a few decent runs on debut then went backwards
if running to the shackled n drawn and lady killar form on debut at wolves and translating that to swell would be a hot fav to win this.Has been beaten in far weaker races since although the drop to 5fs and maybe surface will help,drawn low as well if ever going to win will be this very poor race.
Lamps of heaven
12.40
Poor race Schottische has never run in this grade before at swell and it at best would be a strong fav winning off 57 last season in better race than this but has always been pretty unreliable but chance is there to see over this c/d.Incurs four faults looked an improver last sesson winning off 61 at hamilton looked progressive at lowly level then went backwards,hasn't recaptured that form this season on the turf and has gone down to 53 even struggling off that mark.The positive is the last run over 6fs here was in a maiden against red primo back in april 2014 anything remoptely near that run and the way the horse runs from the front would have a great chsnce in this very poor race,possibility of big gamble if stable think horse is better on this surface as was certainly the case in 2014..
Incurs four faults,Schottische
1.10
The probability is one of the lightly raced horses will be better than the course form runners but as they havn't run here then the two c/d winners general tufto now aged 10 and roger thorpe would be the ones to look at,general tufto was very consistent last season even runs well in better races than this when mood takes him but dependant on a strong pace.He hasn't run in this grade since jan 2015 winning twice off 51 then 58 getting upton 70,if he retains ability he could run well in this terrible race and he may yet win again this season over this c/d.
Roger thorpe beat general tutfo when winning off 60 may 2014 and a 3rd off 62 in the following december against different class horses to these over c/d,deborah sanderson trains with egan booked could be a gamble as trainer does ok on the aw and the horse likes the surface.Runs in this grade for the first time also..
Roger thorpe,General tufto
1.40
Impossible looking handicap plenty look to have chances on course form and quite a few have run against each other,just because of draw a token pick with caras request finished well behind be royale l;ast season over c/d but has big pull in the weights but may get to lead from 1 draw and will be a big price.Solar spirit has never run at swell before is off falling mark and been running in better races than this on the turf,likes catterick is drawn wide but may suit he is still capable of winning in this weaker grade and could be a decent price.I wouldn't rule out piceno either thrown in on last years second to two moons over c/d off 75 and runs of lowest ever aw mark tomorrow of 64 has shown vert litle this season although scott dixon usually gets them right for the aw season would be surprised if piceno doesn't pop up at swell over the next 5/6 months and get overlooked.The negative for him and caras request is that llewellyn the 3 of them will be taking each other on so will need the track to be favouring front runners..
Caras request,Solar spirit.Piceno...
2.10
No form to g on so maybe worth looking at the lightly raced ones mick appleby has a runner out of decent sire elusive pimpernel been running over 5 and 6fs you would imagine even this bare 7fs would be a minimum on pedigree off just a mark of 60 looks interesting in a terribl;e race,sires only had 6 runners on the aw 3 have won and an roi of 277%.Mango chutney ran well in a better race than this last time out against far higher rated horeses,out of sleeping indian could well take to the surface and with unfashionable trainer that has few winners may get over[priced in a very poor race..
Mollies girl,Mango chutney
2.40
Nothing really to go on and some interesting runners on pedigree out of decent sires that look to be running over far to short a trips so a few in here worth looking out for in future,there's very little form to go on otherwise.Belle mare plage ran in what looks a reasonable maiden at windsor seems unlikely maiden winner but has the experiebnce so could be interesting and george baker rides for david brown and Andrew mullen rides another his runners always worth a seconfd look especially in what could be a weak maiden and with a fair few runners needing further..
Belle mare page,Bit of a lad,Time again
3.10
Brassbound looks obvious starting point,he's not looking well handicapped now but there maybe another race to be won on this surface beat lexington bay by 3ls last run here,that runner went on to win by 6ls next time out if he's going to win again will be this race as looks very weak on paper.The quarter jack sire has decent strike rate on fibresand out of haafhd has never run on the surface yet so might run well
at a big price if fav is very short..
Brassbound,The quarterjack
The quarterjack has run at swell was second off 73 over 1m6fs that form doesn't amount to much but still respectable in context of race...
3.40
Hard to make a strong case for anything in this race the gary moore horse was a group horse in 2014 now running in a claimer,has shown nothing in 12 months and this looks desperation stakes they will have knowhere to go if not winning this,was a glimmer of form last time out although very slowly run race at kempton.Usually these are good races for an ew bet as horses like Dabidiyan frequently flop on surface but this race is fuill of horses that have flopped themselves on the surface so even finding an ew alternative is guessing,northside prince possibly the one that might fill a place very hard to predict though..
Dabidiyan,Northside prince
4.10
Similar to the claimer the few that have form look unreliable,lamps of heaven started with a few decent runs on debut then went backwards
if running to the shackled n drawn and lady killar form on debut at wolves and translating that to swell would be a hot fav to win this.Has been beaten in far weaker races since although the drop to 5fs and maybe surface will help,drawn low as well if ever going to win will be this very poor race.
Lamps of heaven
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gigilo
Senior Jockey
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Wolves preview,got a spare day after no racing on flat yesterday and today a pity the cards weren't a bit better..
4.40
The filly kelvin hall ran well on debut the mile race she ran in at haydock was only 1.2 seconds slower than the hot handicap won by empress ali on the same card with mitchum swagger runner up,disappointed next run,she will look extremely well handicapped on that debut run if she doesn't win today and will be one for nurserys maybe over further,johnston stables horses have been running [poorly so would explain price.The rest of the form in the race looks mediocre and not a penny for the newcomers would be very disappointing if neither of the newcomers couldn't figure with their pedigrees from the biotti and Dunlop stable..
Kelvin hall,Hweeya
5.10
Arlecchino's leap now steps up in class and although not looking well handicapped has looked mildly progressive probably place chances but it's difficult to make any strong cases for any of the runners in a very competitive race.Rich again has slipped down the weights to a mark of 75,started a winning run off 64 on the aw over c/d november 2014 then winning off 69,71,75 and 80 3 of those wins over c/d was also 3rd to oriental relation off 83 at chelmsford so this race is right grade to show previous form now back down to 75..
Arlecchinos leap.Rich again
5.40
Desperate race unreliable types but broughtons berry showed improvement in this grade last time out the time was decent for grade with first 3 pulling well clear,i could see one last dream getting closer this time at a bigger price was 4ls behind broughtons berry but strictly on that running shouldn't finish infront of it.The most interesting runner is probably feeltherhythm trained by des donovan ran in a better handicap at cork after massive lay off of 2 years and came second out of yeats the one that is open to most progression..
Broughtons berry,Feltheryhthm
6.10
Jassur was huge improver last time out at chelmsford winning by 7ls cost 140,000 usd decent pedigree but running in low grade races the time at chelmsford was good for ease of win suggests even with a 14 pound rise that maybe a mark of 70+ is not beyond him will be very short and disappointing loser if doesn't win,the slight ? is the track as ran poorly here previously.I have looked through the race for an ew alternative hard to pick anything as most of the runners have yet to prove they stay a mile yet beyond,the only positive seems to be sark has been running in better races than this and crept into this race after dropping in weights.Looking at the Chelmsford run there is some hope of staying as was making ground at finish over a mile,betting will be interesting in a very weak race for evans stable..
Jassur Sark
6.40
Competitve race there's a chance reggie bond may yet again bounce back as he has done on a few occasions after going up in the weights has won 4 times over c/d and ran ok last time out when 5th to inturlude in similar race than tomorrows maybe has reached his optimum mark now and a place probably best he can hope for.Jack of diamonds is hard to win with hasn't been in the best of form recently,but ran well when 6th to minurownbusiness last season in a hot race over c/d and was only beaten 3ls so wouldn't be total surprise if ran well at big prices,probably stable in this class of races a slight negative as hasn't been in best of form but this doesn't look that strong a race for grade.
Reggie bond,Jack of diamonds
7.10
On the recent times run at wolves outlaw torn appears to have a chance although does not look well handicapped after his lsst win over a furlong further at the track probably place chances.A more speculative pick would be miss lillie has shown very little in recent runs and you'd have to forgive her recent runs but last time she ran over c/d won off 69 in different class race and she's now off 64 and lifetuime low mark,she's still only had the 10 runs and at some point will go in at a big price same stable as jack opf diamonds earlier on card that's been out of form.Lord of reasons form behind clarentine has worked out well from lingfield,although he ran poorly at this track you could possibly forgive that run which was run in a slow time..
Outlaw torn,Lord of reason,Miss lillie
7.40
Some weak races on the card and this is the worst,duke of dunton has probably the best recent aw form with other stable runner whether he will repeat it as looks thoroughly unreliable, ivory also runs tangramm ran ok after year off only had 4 runs so open to slight improvement if they both run to their best form they could fight out the finish,a very bad race to end the card..
Duke of dunton,Tangramm
4.40
The filly kelvin hall ran well on debut the mile race she ran in at haydock was only 1.2 seconds slower than the hot handicap won by empress ali on the same card with mitchum swagger runner up,disappointed next run,she will look extremely well handicapped on that debut run if she doesn't win today and will be one for nurserys maybe over further,johnston stables horses have been running [poorly so would explain price.The rest of the form in the race looks mediocre and not a penny for the newcomers would be very disappointing if neither of the newcomers couldn't figure with their pedigrees from the biotti and Dunlop stable..
Kelvin hall,Hweeya
5.10
Arlecchino's leap now steps up in class and although not looking well handicapped has looked mildly progressive probably place chances but it's difficult to make any strong cases for any of the runners in a very competitive race.Rich again has slipped down the weights to a mark of 75,started a winning run off 64 on the aw over c/d november 2014 then winning off 69,71,75 and 80 3 of those wins over c/d was also 3rd to oriental relation off 83 at chelmsford so this race is right grade to show previous form now back down to 75..
Arlecchinos leap.Rich again
5.40
Desperate race unreliable types but broughtons berry showed improvement in this grade last time out the time was decent for grade with first 3 pulling well clear,i could see one last dream getting closer this time at a bigger price was 4ls behind broughtons berry but strictly on that running shouldn't finish infront of it.The most interesting runner is probably feeltherhythm trained by des donovan ran in a better handicap at cork after massive lay off of 2 years and came second out of yeats the one that is open to most progression..
Broughtons berry,Feltheryhthm
6.10
Jassur was huge improver last time out at chelmsford winning by 7ls cost 140,000 usd decent pedigree but running in low grade races the time at chelmsford was good for ease of win suggests even with a 14 pound rise that maybe a mark of 70+ is not beyond him will be very short and disappointing loser if doesn't win,the slight ? is the track as ran poorly here previously.I have looked through the race for an ew alternative hard to pick anything as most of the runners have yet to prove they stay a mile yet beyond,the only positive seems to be sark has been running in better races than this and crept into this race after dropping in weights.Looking at the Chelmsford run there is some hope of staying as was making ground at finish over a mile,betting will be interesting in a very weak race for evans stable..
Jassur Sark
6.40
Competitve race there's a chance reggie bond may yet again bounce back as he has done on a few occasions after going up in the weights has won 4 times over c/d and ran ok last time out when 5th to inturlude in similar race than tomorrows maybe has reached his optimum mark now and a place probably best he can hope for.Jack of diamonds is hard to win with hasn't been in the best of form recently,but ran well when 6th to minurownbusiness last season in a hot race over c/d and was only beaten 3ls so wouldn't be total surprise if ran well at big prices,probably stable in this class of races a slight negative as hasn't been in best of form but this doesn't look that strong a race for grade.
Reggie bond,Jack of diamonds
7.10
On the recent times run at wolves outlaw torn appears to have a chance although does not look well handicapped after his lsst win over a furlong further at the track probably place chances.A more speculative pick would be miss lillie has shown very little in recent runs and you'd have to forgive her recent runs but last time she ran over c/d won off 69 in different class race and she's now off 64 and lifetuime low mark,she's still only had the 10 runs and at some point will go in at a big price same stable as jack opf diamonds earlier on card that's been out of form.Lord of reasons form behind clarentine has worked out well from lingfield,although he ran poorly at this track you could possibly forgive that run which was run in a slow time..
Outlaw torn,Lord of reason,Miss lillie
7.40
Some weak races on the card and this is the worst,duke of dunton has probably the best recent aw form with other stable runner whether he will repeat it as looks thoroughly unreliable, ivory also runs tangramm ran ok after year off only had 4 runs so open to slight improvement if they both run to their best form they could fight out the finish,a very bad race to end the card..
Duke of dunton,Tangramm
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gigilo
Senior Jockey
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- May 5, 2011
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Done little preview at swell poor card first meeting back but interesting to see how track rides..
12.40
Poor race Schottische has never run in this grade before at swell and it at best would be a strong fav winning off 57 last season in better race than this but has always been pretty unreliable but chance is there to see over this c/d.Incurs four faults looked an improver last sesson winning off 61 at hamilton looked progressive at lowly level then went backwards,hasn't recaptured that form this season on the turf and has gone down to 53 even struggling off that mark.The positive is the last run over 6fs here was in a maiden against red primo back in april 2014 anything remoptely near that run and the way the horse runs from the front would have a great chsnce in this very poor race,possibility of big gamble if stable think horse is better on this surface as was certainly the case in 2014..
Incurs four faults,Schottische
Gamble landed got 7/2 and nice little fcast for good measure...
1.10
The probability is one of the lightly raced horses will be better than the course form runners but as they havn't run here then the two c/d winners general tufto now aged 10 and roger thorpe would be the ones to look at,general tufto was very consistent last season even runs well in better races than this when mood takes him but dependant on a strong pace.He hasn't run in this grade since jan 2015 winning twice off 51 then 58 getting upton 70,if he retains ability he could run well in this terrible race and he may yet win again this season over this c/d.
Roger thorpe beat general tutfo when winning off 60 may 2014 and a 3rd off 62 in the following december against different class horses to these over c/d,deborah sanderson trains with egan booked could be a gamble as trainer does ok on the aw and the horse likes the surface.Runs in this grade for the first time also..
Roger thorpe,General tufto
1.40
Impossible looking handicap plenty look to have chances on course form and quite a few have run against each other,just because of draw a token pick with caras request finished well behind be royale l;ast season over c/d but has big pull in the weights but may get to lead from 1 draw and will be a big price.Solar spirit has never run at swell before is off falling mark and been running in better races than this on the turf,likes catterick is drawn wide but may suit he is still capable of winning in this weaker grade and could be a decent price.I wouldn't rule out piceno either thrown in on last years second to two moons over c/d off 75 and runs of lowest ever aw mark tomorrow of 64 has shown vert litle this season although scott dixon usually gets them right for the aw season would be surprised if piceno doesn't pop up at swell over the next 5/6 months and get overlooked.The negative for him and caras request is that llewellyn the 3 of them will be taking each other on so will need the track to be favouring front runners..
Caras request,Solar spirit.Piceno...
2.10
No form to g on so maybe worth looking at the lightly raced ones mick appleby has a runner out of decent sire elusive pimpernel been running over 5 and 6fs you would imagine even this bare 7fs would be a minimum on pedigree off just a mark of 60 looks interesting in a terribl;e race,sires only had 6 runners on the aw 3 have won and an roi of 277%.Mango chutney ran well in a better race than this last time out against far higher rated horeses,out of sleeping indian could well take to the surface and with unfashionable trainer that has few winners may get over[priced in a very poor race..
Mollies girl,Mango chutney
2.40
Nothing really to go on and some interesting runners on pedigree out of decent sires that look to be running over far to short a trips so a few in here worth looking out for in future,there's very little form to go on otherwise.Belle mare plage ran in what looks a reasonable maiden at windsor seems unlikely maiden winner but has the experiebnce so could be interesting and george baker rides for david brown and Andrew mullen rides another his runners always worth a seconfd look especially in what could be a weak maiden and with a fair few runners needing further..
Belle mare page,Bit of a lad,Time again
3.10
Brassbound looks obvious starting point,he's not looking well handicapped now but there maybe another race to be won on this surface beat lexington bay by 3ls last run here,that runner went on to win by 6ls next time out if he's going to win again will be this race as looks very weak on paper.The quarter jack sire has decent strike rate on fibresand out of haafhd has never run on the surface yet so might run well
at a big price if fav is very short..
Brassbound,The quarterjack
The quarterjack has run at swell was second off 73 over 1m6fs that form doesn't amount to much but still respectable in context of race...
3.40
Hard to make a strong case for anything in this race the gary moore horse was a group horse in 2014 now running in a claimer,has shown nothing in 12 months and this looks desperation stakes they will have knowhere to go if not winning this,was a glimmer of form last time out although very slowly run race at kempton.Usually these are good races for an ew bet as horses like Dabidiyan frequently flop on surface but this race is fuill of horses that have flopped themselves on the surface so even finding an ew alternative is guessing,northside prince possibly the one that might fill a place very hard to predict though..
Dabidiyan,Northside prince
4.10
Similar to the claimer the few that have form look unreliable,lamps of heaven started with a few decent runs on debut then went backwards
if running to the shackled n drawn and lady killar form on debut at wolves and translating that to swell would be a hot fav to win this.Has been beaten in far weaker races since although the drop to 5fs and maybe surface will help,drawn low as well if ever going to win will be this very poor race.
Lamps of heaven
gigilo
Senior Jockey
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- May 5, 2011
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