Derby. Epsom (no road)

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Right, I have Ocovango for two bags after Sky Lantern's win today.

Will he turn up?

Will Dawn Approach stay?

Is Battle of Marengo a danger?

When will Telescope be sighted?
 
the only positive for me losing on toronado on saturday was my 12/1 antepost on dawn approach for this looks a damn sight tastier now. bolger has confirmed today that he goes for it.

word is kingbarns out for the season. also toronado to swerve this and wait for ascot.
 
O'Brien's probably got the winner. Dawn Approach is not a 12 furlong horse. Should prove devastating at around 9-10 furlongs though. Very relaxed and would give himself a chance at further, but at best he'd do a Hawk Wing (at worst a Tenby) and empty in the final furlong. Toronado may well bypass Epsom for Ascot.

Ballydoyle have too many dyed-in-the-wool 12 furlong horses for DA to beat all of them.
 
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Euronymous said:
Right, I have Ocovango for two bags after Sky Lantern's win today.

Will he turn up?

Will Dawn Approach stay?

Is Battle of Marengo a danger?

When will Telescope be sighted?
Click to expand...

Ocovongo is all over my TTF, but has only run at Saint-Cloud. Fabre also has Intello, who turned out at Newmarket in April.

As mentioned DA will inevitably come up short.

BoM. Yes a danger, but also a handful of others at Ballydoyle.

No view about Telescope at the moment.
 
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SlimChance said:
If you're beating the price you're winning the game.
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The way I bet they still have to win. But if you're into heavily laying them off you might be right. I didn't believe Tenby had a hope in hell of winning the Derby, but that didn't stop them sending him off odds-on. So you may well be right that DA will be sent off shorter.
 
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DAWN APPROACH (IRE) ch. C, 2010 DP = 2-4-8-2-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38

New Approach (IRE) ch. C, 2005 DP = 5-0-7-6-0 (18) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.22

If I recall, Steve, you weren't over-confident about New Approach staying the trip. I think maybe 10f was thought likely to be an optimum but that his class might help.

DA's DI and CD are both higher but...

What if New Approach eventually establishes himself as a strong influence for stamina? What if he goes on to establish himself - and he had a tremendous first crop, siring the top juvenile of either gender - as a chef-de-race for stamina?
 
Desert Orchid said:
DAWN APPROACH (IRE) ch. C, 2010 DP = 2-4-8-2-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38

New Approach (IRE) ch. C, 2005 DP = 5-0-7-6-0 (18) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.22

If I recall, Steve, you weren't over-confident about New Approach staying the trip. I think maybe 10f was thought likely to be an optimum but that his class might help.

DA's DI and CD are both higher but...

What if New Approach eventually establishes himself as a strong influence for stamina? What if he goes on to establish himself - and he had a tremendous first crop, siring the top juvenile of either gender - as a chef-de-race for stamina?
Click to expand...

I was very confident that New Approach would get the Derby trip. He was in fact my headline horse for the Derby. See: New Approach has a perfect blend of speed and stamina http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_epsom_derby_preview.htm

I was less confident about the Guineas and insisted he would improve for middle distances. This is not the case with Dawn Approach though. Very much the other way round.

New Approach (Guineas preview)
The Jim Bolger-trained Dewhurst and National Stakes winner New Approach stands out as unbeaten in five appearances at seven furlongs, four at Group level. The Galileo colt is the half-brother to several winners (being out of Park Express), including the filly Dazzling Park (by Warning), also trained by Bolger, and Shinko Forest (by Green Desert). New Approach’s two-year-old campaign mirrored that of the Bolger-trained 2006 Dewhurst winner Teofilo and like Teofilo (also by Galileo) New Approach headed the two-year-old International Classifications. New Approach is also guaranteed to get the mile well, with six stamina points and a DI of 0.89, something we can’t be sure about from a number of his main rivals. Why then look further for our winner? The answer to this is that he is likely to improve still further at middle distances. So unless we have a dual-Classic winner in the mould of a Nashwan or a Nijinsky on our hands, New Approach may conceivably prove worth taking on at Newmarket.

New Approach (Derby preview)
The dramatic news that New Approach will run in the Derby providing the ground is “good or softer” revitalises a Derby market that needed a shot in the arm. Trainer Jim Bolger had previously said that New Approach had been left in “by mistake” (his target being the Irish Derby), which seemed a pity (if barely plausible) as the Galileo colt looks to be better suited to the mile-and-a-half at Epsom than to either of the English or Irish 2,000 Guineas, in which he finished an admirable runner-up on both occasions over an inadequate trip.

Dawn Approach (Guineas preview)
The six-from-six unbeaten dual Group 1 winner Dawn Approach, by New Approach out of a Phone Trick mare, holds strong claims and a favourite’s chance for his handler Jim Bolger. With a DI of 1.67 the colt is well placed in terms of typical previous winners of the race. Leitir Mor will take up pacemaker duties.
 
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Cheers, Steve.

At what 'pointage' does a dosage profile become reliable? You regularly mention totals that are too low to be reliable and exclude certain horses from the table for that reason, yet NA and DA both have totals under 20, hence the question.
 
Less than about 10 points I would normally exclude, depending if a prepotent influence is close up in the pedigree. Mid-teens or bigger would normally suggest a reliable reading. A spread of points would also indicate a secure reading, rather than a low point score isolated in a single area. A high point score isolated in a particular area would really be telling you something though.
 
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The winner always goes well in the Derby though. Aidan has such a strong hand it's impossible to say what will be his best. The less exposed ones like him are open to huge improvement.
 
Desert Orchid said:
DAWN APPROACH (IRE) ch. C, 2010 DP = 2-4-8-2-0 (16) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.38

New Approach (IRE) ch. C, 2005 DP = 5-0-7-6-0 (18) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.22

If I recall, Steve, you weren't over-confident about New Approach staying the trip. I think maybe 10f was thought likely to be an optimum but that his class might help.

DA's DI and CD are both higher but...

What if New Approach eventually establishes himself as a strong influence for stamina? What if he goes on to establish himself - and he had a tremendous first crop, siring the top juvenile of either gender - as a chef-de-race for stamina?
Click to expand...
Maybe it was Sea The Stars I was thinking of...

SEA THE STARS (IRE) b. C, 2006 DP = 5-3-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.8
 
Unlikely, on past history.
Coolmore invariably send their best prospect to Epsom, and (assuming Magician to be the one) nothing in his form suggests he won't get the trip.
 
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