Derby. Epsom (no road)

Been in and out of action lately and been trying to catch up, I Just read that SMS intends sending Telescope to the Derby if he can get a racecourse gallop into him beforehand :blink:

Has any horse ever won the Derby without a run?

Workforce came damn close to it when he was 6 canters short of a gallop and as green as a cucumber when finishing 2nd in the Dante.

15 or so on the machine isn't a price I'd want to be laying when you consider how much he can improve a horse in a short space of time.

Off to the beach until Sunday tomorrow so comments on a postcard please.

Back him or lay him?
 
Lammtarra's Derby was an horrific renewal as was Shaamit's. They were good horses who got away with it. Like Camelot's 2000 Guineas.
 
With Pennekamp getting injured it didn't take a lot of winning. Nothing against Lammtarra though, he improved mightily to win the King George and Arc.
 
Euronymous said:
With Pennekamp getting injured it didn't take a lot of winning. Nothing against Lammtarra though, he improved mightily to win the King George and Arc.
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Pennekamp was travelling beautifully before going wrong . I have fond memories of backing him to beat Celtic Swing who was so overrated .
 
Celtic Swing didnt have his ground, and was not healthy at 3

on gs or softer he was a much better horse than Pennekamp
 
sunybay said:
Celtic Swing didnt have his ground, and was not healthy at 3

on gs or softer he was a much better horse than Pennekamp
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He was healthy enough to win the Prix du Jockey Club . He was an extremely well developed and precocious 2 year old whose jockey was encouraged to ride him out to big winning distances - at 3 they caught up with him and he was a Group 1 colt but no superstar .
 
edgt said:
Lammtara 's Derby had every good 3yo around bar Celtic Swing and Pentire to be fair.
One of the fastest times to boot.Plus he won all his races so be fair to the horse!
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The time was simply a product of the conditions on the day. The next race on the card, over the same C&D, was won by Global Dancer (a 63-rated handicapper) in 2m34.76s, a time fast enough to have won five of the preceding ten Derbies and six of the following ten.
 
I'm very looking forward to backing Dawn Approach and watching him win easily. I'm not an even money backer but this looks good value.
 
Does anyone know of any plans for First Cornerstone? I see he's still in the race and looks to be under the radar if the plan is to run.
 
Not usually caught up in hype but I can't get Telescope's promising run at 2 out of my mind.

He was still very green that day and it took time for him to cotton on what was required but over the last 100 yds or so I thought he gave significant notice of what was to come.

Never easy judging these 2yo's that run in ordinary races but at around 8/1 on the machine he'll do for me.

A lot of people thought New Approach might not stay and got it wrong and those who think the same of his son may well end up being wrong as well.

If there's glitch in his armour it's the time he takes to quicken up but he's unbeaten at a mile and surely this extra trip is a plus rather than a minus.

He'll be very hard to beat IMO so a saver wouldn't be a bad idea as I'd be happy losing 1pt's profit from 8pts profit should Telescope beat him.
 
Telescope is an awfull price
His maiden form is not working badly but he is moré likely to finish last than winning.
 
The stable clearly think a lot of him - even down to giving him the same Lingfield gallop Workforce had.
 
Tanlic said:
A lot of people thought New Approach might not stay and got it wrong and those who think the same of his son may well end up being wrong as well.
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No one with even a very basic grasp of pedigrees could have thought that. His dam was a middle distance horse by a sire whose stock tended to defer to the female line for stamina. He also never ran shorter than 7f as a 2yo whereas his son has wins over 5 and 6f at that age.
 
Tanlic said:
A lot of people thought New Approach might not stay and got it wrong and those who think the same of his son may well end up being wrong as well.
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I think I brought this up with Steve M and New Approach's dosage spelled out Derby while Dawn Approach's doesn't.

On reflection, I think I was getting mixed up with Sea The Stars, whose dosage didn't fall in with the normal Derby profile.
 
Sea the Stars didn't need to be at his best to win the Derby and it is possible DA could win without being a proper stayer. If we take Timeform's rating of 132 as accurate and feature in 2 or 3lbs nominal improvement just for having a run we could be looking at a 134 animal who may be able to run to 127 and win the race.
 
I thought the Dante was an interesting race. When a horse from an unfashionable stable causes an upset like this, we often dismiss the race as below standard. I thought it was a decent Derby trial and the winner should not be dismissed lightly.

I saw Libertarian run on TV in the Classic Trial at Sandown in April, he caught my eye. He was very green and steered an erratic course early in the straight, but once he found his stride, he finished really well. One of the great things about being an old timer is that every once in while you can recall a precedent that is outside the memory of others.

I was at Sandown back in 1978, on Whitbread Gold Cup day and saw a horse called Whitstead win the Classic Trial. A son of Morston; Whitstead was trained by Captain Ryan Price, he was an easy 10 length winner on rain softened ground. Impressive though Whitstead was, my eye was caught by the runner up, outpaced around the home turn, he stayed on really well to take second close home. The name of that horse was Shirley Heights, Libertarian doesn’t resemble Shirley Heights in appearance but his style of running is very reminiscent.

If Libertarian did go on to win at Epsom he would follow both Shirley Heights and Benny The Dip, both beaten at Sandown before winning the Dante en-route to success at Epsom. At 20/1, could he be a sporting bet to give Dawn Approach a wake up call.
 
Euronymous said:
Sea the Stars didn't need to be at his best to win the Derby and it is possible DA could win without being a proper stayer. If we take Timeform's rating of 132 as accurate and feature in 2 or 3lbs nominal improvement just for having a run we could be looking at a 134 animal who may be able to run to 127 and win the race.
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Yes, that's possible. We shouldn't forget that Hawk Wing would have been an impressive Derby winner if High Chaparral hadn't been miles in front!
 
I think Dawn Approach will not be suited to Epsom and is a doubtful stayer but I have been trying to find something to beat him but i have given up, he is a stone in front of the field and the Only 2 of interest (battle of marengo and magician) but both are doubtful stayers no pedigree for me.
 
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