Dunguib

In fairness to Powers the price is with a run. It is reasonable to expect he will have done something sparkly between now and then to turn up.
 
So if he wins the Future Champion Hurdle by 10L at Christmas? What then? Even money favourite for the Champion Hurdle WAR??

It's a joke price. It's nothing but mischief, and a lure for saps.
 
If the current top 14 in the betting lined up for Champion Hurdle what price would Dunguib be? My guess is 4-1 would noj be far off the mark. Lets not forget Rhinestone Cowboy was 5-2 with a similar if not less imressive campagin.
 
4/1 would likely make him the joint-fave for the race, Gearoid, and unless he is beating high calibre novices by 15L in the remaining trials, he wouldn't be worth the price.

What has he achieved on form that justifies that price? The horse clearly ahs stacks of talent - I'm not knocking him - but on form you couldn't have him rated even as high as 150 at present. Given the strength of the Champion Hurdle, I reckon the winner is likely going to have to run to a mark not far off 170, so right now we're looking at 20+lbs of improvement to win.

Powers are asking punters to take the 4/1 about him making that improvement, and even if he does, he will be entering a market which is very strong amongst the first half-dozen in the betting (forget the rags). Even if he makes the improvement, he could surely be no shorter than 4/1 on the day? And that's not taking into account those who might look to oppose him on experience grounds.

I'm sorry, but 4/1 about Dunguib - even with a run - is one of the least appealing wagers I've seen in a long time.
 
As Melendez says he will have to do something special to be put in the race so while 4-1 is thin, I think I would take anything 7-1 and over with a run.
 
He'll have to sharpen up his hurdling big time if he is to have any pretensions of even placing in a Champion.
 
I thought his jumping was very good on the whole. Champion Hurdle hype is taking away from how promising a novice he is.
 
He would probably look more fluid if he'd be going more than 3/4 pace, tracks, to be fair. Not easy to get that nice low trajectory when you're not going fast enough to create the right shape. I'd hope to see him in a couple more races where the pace extends him properly, then let's see how his style works out. The thing is, he didn't clatter any of them and if he was a bit titty at 'em, you can put it down to lack of 'attack' by the jockey.
 
I have him now in 153P, not so far behind of the leader in the champion division in Zaynar 168P, his jumping yesterday was very good.
 
Bar, 4/1 WAR can only be a good price if the individual thinks that Dunguib is already as good as the likes of Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Zaynar, Solwhit and Celestial Halo.......or is confident that he will progress past them.

Dunguib clearly does not have the form in the book to match any of the above candidates, so anyone backing him at the price must expect him to progress past them. Given the race will (imo) take around a 170 performance to win it, Dunguib will need to run to a mark around a stone higher than a genuinely high-class novice would usually achieve.

Basically, Powers are asking punters to take 4/1 that Dunguib is a stone better horse than the likes of Hurricane Fly, Binocular, Monsignor, Barton, French Holly etc etc were at the end of their novice seasons.

I stand by my original statement - it's a joke price.
 
Bar, 4/1 WAR can only be a good price if the individual thinks that Dunguib is already as good as the likes of Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Zaynar, Solwhit and Celestial Halo.......or is confident that he will progress past them.
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... Or is confident the owner won't run him unless he defies logic and shows himself to be up to the required standard. Most people would want at least a favourite's chance of winning the champion to turn down a cast iron chance of winning a race at the festival.

My guess is if they have pretentions towards running in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle he will almost definitely get a sighter in the Irish Champion hurdle. After that he will either be near enough favourite for the Champion Hurdle or won't be running in it.
 
"Near enough" favourite kind of makes my point for me, Melendez.

That would make him around a 4/1 chance after he has proven himself in a higher grade. Powers are asking people to take 4/1 before he has even been pitched in against anything remotely close to Champion Hurdle class.

Why would people take that bet now, when it's practically impossible to make him any shorter, even if he does win a recognised Champion Hurdle trial? Why tie your money up for three months, when you might find out in three weeks whether he's good enough (assuming he was entered in the Festival Hurdle)? :cool:
 
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I'm not saying it's good value, just that I've seen worse (and I'm not even convinced by his novice credentials yet). It's not the cringeworthy price you make out. If he doesn't have a very good chance come March I can't see that he's a possible runner and you get your money back. I don't see him lining up at anything bigger than 6/1. Whether there is potential for him to be significantly shorter than 4/1 is dubious though.
 
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Why you would want to part company with your money this far in advance to maybe get a runner who would have to improve past about 5 horses is beyond me.

Put the money in your savings and wait. Or convert it into yen or something and wait... Don't let PP keep it for you..

I agree with Grassy.
 
Dunquib has not be in a race yet so his potential is as high as your imagination will let you go. Is it possible for him to line up in the Champion sub 4-1? I think it is. I would not take 4-1 but I think you can justify the price. As I said above I would be a backer at 7-1 with a run, maybe even a bit shorter.
 
I discussed the price with Mrs. BtB. She is of the opinion that she trusts Paddy Power with the money more than me.

She has therefore asked me to place my entire Cheltenham bank on it.

He won't run, unless he proves himself to have a near enough favourite's chance.
 
Better still, Rhinestone Cowboy was 5-2 WAR after he won hard on the bit at Wincaton.
 
It's not really comparing like with like, Gearoid.

Rhinestone Cowboy had just won an open Grade 2 Hurdle, the Kingwell was only four weeks before the Festival, and the Champion Hurdle market was much weaker than the one Dunguib is quoted in.
 
rorydelargy said:
I thought his jumping was very good on the whole. Champion Hurdle hype is taking away from how promising a novice he is.
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Hard to get a good view of his jumping given the typically depressing camera angle until they reached Ballyhack. I just thought it lacked fluency at a couple of hurdles.

Totally understandable given the horse is a novice; my comment about his jumping was made in the context of Champion Hurdle talk.
 
Its not like for like but its not all that different. As for the Champion Hurdle market being developed, I have to disagree. Four horses have been fav since last March and oddschecke currently shows co-fav of three at 11-2. Dunguib could seriously shake up this market if shows us something at Leopardstown at Xmas. I have no doubt he will trade sub 10-1 for the Champion before March on Betfair.
 
Grasshopper said:
That would make him around a 4/1 chance after he has proven himself in a higher grade. Powers are asking people to take 4/1 before he has even been pitched in against anything remotely close to Champion Hurdle class.
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In fairness, there is no way in hell this horse would be a 4/1 if he won the Irish Champion.
 
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