Dunguib

Gearoid said:
I disagree. Anything is possible with this horse until he proves otherwise on the track.
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Crossed wires here I think. You'd struggle to get 3's if he won the Irish Champion I reckon.

Not a reflection on my view of his chances btw.
 
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Crossed wires indeed. I have no idea of the horses chances but I can see serious potential in his Champion Hurdle price.
 
I quite agree actually. Fenton said today that were they to go down the Champion Hurdle route, he would take in the Irish Champion as well.

If he wins or finishes within a few lengths, I reckon you'd be struggling to get 4's. If he blows out, he runs in the Supreme.

Thinking of the likely runners at Leopardstown, I'm not sure I'd want to take 4's for the Irish Champion on the day tbh!
 
trackside528 said:
Thinking of the likely runners at Leopardstown, I'm not sure I'd want to take 4's for the Irish Champion on the day tbh!
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Exactly my point, trackside. Why lock up your cash for three months at 4/1, when you can very likely back him at a bigger price in a recognised prep race.
 
Grasshopper said:
Exactly my point, trackside. Why lock up your cash for three months at 4/1, when you can very likely back him at a bigger price in a recognised prep race.
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I'm not backing him to win either race, Grassy, merely that if he does run in the Champion he'll be shorter than 4's.
 
To be fair, Bar, you might be right. When I first posted, the shortest I saw him elsewhere was 16/1, and even that I reckoned was a bit miserly.

I'm severely hungover this morning, and don't really have the energy for the debate any longer. I think I should just go and have some of the 4/1 WAR, and then crawl back into my cot.
 
Dunguib apparently swerves Leopardstown over Christmas and goes to the Delloite next. Still time for plans to change, of course, but this would seem to suggest that a Champion Hurdle tilt is perhaps a little less likely than it was a few days ago.

There's no huge impact on the CH market as yet (still 4/1 WAR with Powers), but he is a marginal drifter on the exchanges.
 
What would he need to do in that race to temp connections? Id imagine nothhing will take him on.
 
Opposition guaranteed for a Grade 1 prize, I would have thought Gearoid. There's little point in the best of the remainder of the 2m novices trying to avoid him beforehand. What other races could they reasonably go for? And besides, why run scared from just the one horse?

I think Dunguib would need to beat the Delloite opposition very convincingly - upwards of a dozen lengths, with the others running their races - for connections to entertain any notion of a Champion Hurdle run. And even then, I'd still expect them to end-up in the Supreme.

If Dunguib were to win, say, 20L then the equation changes a bit, as he would almost certainly have run to the early-160's in doing so. In which case, they might well want to pitch him into the Champion. He really has to murder them in the Delloite though, to have any chance of running in it...imo.
 
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Hardly likely he'll win by half the track at Leopardstown ~ if he doesn't have to come off the bridle to win five lengths, there's surely no point asking him to fully exert himself with Cheltenham in mind (whatever the target).

You would think that any change in plan would be decided before Leopardstown and, were they to target the Champion he would be given a sighter in the Irish Champion first.
 
Talk of Champion Hurdle at this stage is crazy - the better novices will only start to emerge from now on through Christmas. I doubt the likes of Some Present will be on the radar come Cheltenham. Plenty left to prove but I think they are right to give the horse a break now.
 
From what Fenton said yesterday it would seem so. He can only take the novice event this season then primed for the CH next season.
 
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