Eclipse Stakes

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reet hard

Senior Jockey
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Can't see a thread for this, so here goes:
So You Think is clear favourite, previous winner, and - if you believe AO'B - a better horse for being held up longer. Imo, he beat a disappointing Workforce and not much else last year, and with Nathaniel in the field, will find this a sterner test of his suspect stamina, and is unlikely to last home.
Though mooted as a Leger horse last season, JG seems determined to prove Nathaniel's 10f class , and there were clear signs this was his target when intended for the Brigadier Gerard (N/R - scoped badly). 2.5l behind SYT in the Quipco Champion, but the longer straight and likely easier ground here could well see that form turned on its head.
Farhh was considered unlucky in the PoW but, even when in the clear, wasn't gaining ground on the 4th horse, and the form probably flatters him.
Bonfire probably didn't act around Epsom, but still has a mountain to climb on previous form, which leaves Cityscape as possibly the best alternative. Reportedly working well, he comes here off an unlucky run at Sha Tin after winning the Dubai Duty Free impressively. 12/1 probably underrates him, but untried at the distance. Given his speed, the York International may suit him better.
Nathaniel for me, with SYT and Cityyscape too fight out the places.
 
reet hard said:
Farhh was considered unlucky in the PoW but, even when in the clear, wasn't gaining ground on the 4th horse, and the form probably flatters him.
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Not sure how you can argue that, reet.

Farhh and RM started their runs from the back at pretty much the same time and when Farhh met his trouble he had gained about half a length on RM. The latter's run was untroubled down the outside but Farhh's momentum was severely compromised. He emerged from it about three-quarters of a length behind RM and finished a neck or so ahead under hands-and-heels riding (Dettori knew his chance of winning had gone) so he has taken a length out of RM despite losing more than a length plus most of his momentum.

I'm not saying he would have won but he was clearly better than RM on the day.
 
reet hard said:
Farhh was considered unlucky in the PoW but, even when in the clear, wasn't gaining ground on the 4th horse, and the form probably flatters him.
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He finished 3rd, so he must have gained some ground on the 4th horse.

My take on it wasn't that he was unlucky - Frankie didn't have a choice but to take him up the inner due to being hemmed in coming round the bend and then met traffic. He did well to finish 3rd, but that doesn't mean he would definitely have been closer with a clear run.

At the prices - I'm interested in Monterosso and Twice Over myself. Proven Gp1 winners at 40+ on Betfair? (Unless of course they're non runners!)
 
The way I saw it, both 3rd and 4th were stopped in their runs and could have finished closer, but were neck and neck for the last 1/2 furlong.
With all the field finishing in a heap, and such as Sri Putra close behind, the form's probably not worth a row of beans, anyway.
 
I'd hardly call Monterosso a proven Group One winner. Group One winner, yes but he's not proved it wasn't a fluke on the equine bingo magic carpet of Meydan's tapeta surface probably aided by jungle juice.

Cityscape is an interesting one for me but the race really hasn't got my juice flowing this year at all.

Anyone who thinks So You Think is a better horse this year and that AOB has found the "key" to him now wants sectioning. He beat Sri Putra and Planteur by a smaller margin in the PoW this year than he did last year. It's just Coolmore propaganda for the Oz breeders.
 
Leaving aside Aidan's mea culpa which no one this side of the world remotely believes, I was impressed with So You Think at Ascot and don't think Farhh will reverse the placings. Nathaniel could find 10f too short for him.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Anyone who thinks So You Think is a better horse this year and that AOB has found the "key" to him now wants sectioning. He beat Sri Putra and Planteur by a smaller margin in the PoW this year than he did last year. It's just Coolmore propaganda for the Oz breeders.
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I kind of agree but does he need to be a better horse? Workforce was disappointing last year but it was running in the King George after this race that did him. His run in the Brigadier was a good one.

I can't have Nathaniel first time out and the Godolphin horse is a false price as unlucky losers always are in their next outing. I can't see Cityscape staying.

If I was going to have a bet in this I'd have a small one on Twice Over in the place market.


But whatever I'd normally have on a race like this I'll save and keep for Sea Moon in the King George. Now that's a race where we have a Ballydoyle shorty that's well worth taking on.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'd hardly call Monterosso a proven Group One winner. Group One winner, yes but he's not proved it wasn't a fluke on the equine bingo magic carpet of Meydan's tapeta surface probably aided by jungle juice.
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Equine bingo magic carpet still applies, but he finished 3/4l 3rd in last years DWC as well - so clearly it wasn't a fluke.

He had looked quite progressive on turf prior to that before obviously picking up an injury.

At 40/1 it's worth taking a chance.
 
The DWC is an embarrassment , the form just never stacks up.

Fair point about his UK domestic form though, I just don't trust Godolphin. Agree he's overpriced at 40s but I think Meydan Tapeta form is laughable.
 
reet hard said:
Nathaniel for me, with SYT and Cityyscape too fight out the places.
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Trainer sounds sceptical about Nathaniel's chances given lack of a prep in today's Post.

Not sure how good Farhh is but like you am not overwhelmed by his performance despite being supplemented for this.

Bonfire reported in good heart.

But I see no reason to believe that SYT won't win. He seems curiously underrated by many to me. I wasn't his greatest fan initially but he has won me over.
 
So You Think is a very good and solid horse
he was overrated in Australia and he is a 128/129 here in Europe.
The expectations were so high that I have been a little disappointed with him,

the main danger on Saturday is Giofra.
 
Won a small few quid today and place laid Farh with the profits at around 4/5.As someone said earlier unlucky losers tend to be overbet and he hasn't had much racing so 2 Group 1s in 17 days might be too much for him.
 
simmo said:
Equine bingo magic carpet still applies, but he finished 3/4l 3rd in last years DWC as well - so clearly it wasn't a fluke.

He had looked quite progressive on turf prior to that before obviously picking up an injury.

At 40/1 it's worth taking a chance.
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Can't see him turning up given that they've supplemented Farrh. Hardly inspires confidence either if he does run.
 
Tweeted five minutes ago:

"aobballydoyle ‏@aobballydoyle
So You Think was found to be lame in his stable a short time ago and will not run in the Eclipse on Saturday."
 
Shame SYT misses what was to be his final appearance. I suppose that will be it for him now. Would have liked to have seen him one more time this season.
 
With SYT out i'm beginning to think Crackerjack King could be the bet. Not sure if anyone has seen his last performance but it was taking and although it was a very weak Group 1 he made up ground effortlessly and he looks a decent e/w punt to me. Cityscape looks too big as well and Farrh is now looking too skinny in the betting.
 
Disappointing news about SYT being out - but on the plus side - I do now have a boner for the 42 Monterosso and 48 Twice Over I took yesterday.
 
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