Eclipse Stakes

Euronymous said:
I agree about not going overboard but what kind of mong had the second on 118 going into that race?
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The Official Handicapper raised Farhh 4lb (from 114) for his Ascot run, which seems reasonable considering the 115 rated Sri Putra finished within 2l of him.
So You Think probably didn't run to his best in that race - nor did he need to.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I won't finalise my rating for him until midweek but Twice Over hasn't got above 116 this season and I had Farhh on 117++ for Ascot and I suspected he could run to about 123.

I take on board the pre-race comments about how well Twice Over looked but it's an awful long time since he ran to 125.

I'd also take a time rating of 129 with a pinch of salt. The jockeys were taking it easy in the earlier races until they realised it wasn't as soft as claimed. This was probably the first true-run race of the day.

Nathaniel probably didn't even hit his OR of 126 today but looks likely to go higher once fully fit and racing over further. I thought it was a tremendously game effort from him and he can be the big middle-distance horse of the season if Frankel stays at a mile.
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the first race was a slow run affair ..as was Falls Of Lora's...but Trade Commisioner + Trend Is My Friend race were both truly run which is borne out by race comments..Stage Attraction.."led at a good pace"...Scrupul.."Led at a Good pace"...those races weren't falsely run at all.

we have an all aged G1 with 3 125 horses taking part and yet the race supposedly gets a lower rating than this years Derby?...i don't think so tbh..but i hope everyone else thinks the same as the first two will be seriously overpriced nto
 
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reet hard said:
The Official Handicapper raised Farhh 4lb (from 114) for his Ascot run, which seems reasonable considering the 115 rated Sri Putra finished within 2l of him.
So You Think probably didn't run to his best in that race - nor did he need to.
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Sri putra is a good marker as you point out..very consistent indeed....finished 19 lengths behind the winner yesterday...his biggest defeat in the last 15 runs

only beaten 7 by Cirrus..6 by SYT...but 19 yesterday
 
Desert Orchid said:
I take on board the pre-race comments about how well Twice Over looked but it's an awful long time since he ran to 125.
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Twice Over doesn't need to have run to 125 but its not actually that long since he ran to a decent level. He has needed two races over the last few seasons to reach peak..which makes his below par runs this season not representative of his real form.

I think people have written TO off without looking at what his form early in a season is actually worth as regards to his true level

form in July Aug Sept reads 71112311

some of those placings are top efforts too
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I won't finalise my rating for him until midweek but Twice Over hasn't got above 116 this season and I had Farhh on 117++ for Ascot and I suspected he could run to about 123.

I take on board the pre-race comments about how well Twice Over looked but it's an awful long time since he ran to 125.

I'd also take a time rating of 129 with a pinch of salt. The jockeys were taking it easy in the earlier races until they realised it wasn't as soft as claimed. This was probably the first true-run race of the day.

Nathaniel probably didn't even hit his OR of 126 today but looks likely to go higher once fully fit and racing over further. I thought it was a tremendously game effort from him and he can be the big middle-distance horse of the season if Frankel stays at a mile.
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Trade Commissioner's race looked to be truly run, though he'll probably be rated around 105/7, which puts some perspective on the Eclipse time; only a relative 0.98 secs faster (RP standards).
A quick (and Mordinesque) check with the stopwatch shows they went no slower for the last 3f than the overall average speed for the race, which confirms the visual impression that Nathaniel kicked on about 4 out to make full use of his stamina - great ride by Buick incidentally, who once again showed he's one sound judge of pace.
Can't have it that he wasn't close to full fitness - the trainer's intentions were clearly flagged up with his Brigadier Gerard entry, and the King George has been put on the back-burner since - and (distance apart) everything fell in his favour yesterday. Whatever improvement he finds over further will be mitigated by the likely faster ground (just 3 Arcs this Century run above standard time, EC) and shorter straights he'll probably be running over. He'll find a few lbs certainly, but I'd be surprised if he's any world-beater.
 
EC1 said:
Sri putra is a good marker as you point out..very consistent indeed....finished 19 lengths behind the winner yesterday...his biggest defeat in the last 15 runs

only beaten 7 by Cirrus..6 by SYT...but 19 yesterday
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Even if he ran to his very, very best against Farhh, that would make him no more than 116 OR, or 118 RPR. ;)
 
reet hard said:
Even if he ran to his very, very best against Farhh, that would make him no more than 116 OR, or 118 RPR. ;)
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I'm talking about yesterday...Sri Putra was beaten miles..he is a good marker you said...which is true for his last 15 races

using an improving horse's previous ratings to rate a race is flawed

Its like when Excelebration ran FTO against Frankel as a 3yo..oooh thats a poor run..E is only an 89 horse...err no ...E has improved

Does anyone believe that Farrh is a 118 horse now?
 
reet hard said:
Trade Commissioner's race looked to be truly run, though he'll probably be rated around 105/7, which puts some perspective on the Eclipse time; only a relative 0.98 secs faster (RP standards).
A quick (and Mordinesque) check with the stopwatch shows they went no slower for the last 3f than the overall average speed for the race, which confirms the visual impression that Nathaniel kicked on about 4 out to make full use of his stamina - great ride by Buick incidentally, who once again showed he's one sound judge of pace.
Can't have it that he wasn't close to full fitness - the trainer's intentions were clearly flagged up with his Brigadier Gerard entry, and the King George has been put on the back-burner since - and (distance apart) everything fell in his favour yesterday. Whatever improvement he finds over further will be mitigated by the likely faster ground (just 3 Arcs this Century run above standard time, EC) and shorter straights he'll probably be running over. He'll find a few lbs certainly, but I'd be surprised if he's any world-beater.
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I wouldn't be using the RP standards Reet..they aren't very good as anyone will tell you that makes speed figures...you also need to bring those differences back to per mile...to make a comparison valid.

with the weather being as it is..the Arc could be run on slower this year though..who knows
 
EC
I'd accept RP standards may be iffy, but don't believe any method can tie horses down to the nearest lb anyway, so - cheap and cheerful as they are - they'll serve as a guide, generally.
Fwiw, I'd also accept that Farhh showed improved form again yesterday, but is still no more than a 122/3 horse, imo.
 
reet hard said:
EC
I'd accept RP standards may be iffy, but don't believe any method can tie horses down to the nearest lb anyway, so - cheap and cheerful as they are - they'll serve as a guide, generally.
Fwiw, I'd also accept that Farhh showed improved form again yesterday, but is still no more than a 122/3 horse, imo.
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i've had a look again..and i'll go 127-129 speed figure rather than go to an exact figure..which is probably impossible as you say

i think its strong form..but as usual you have ifs and buts about those in the finish by which to judge it

on form ratings

is TO as good..maybe ..120-123 horse
Farhh still improving..???
did Cityscape stay..no..ran to 112/113??
did CK like the ground..
Bonfire..wouldn't know wtf to do with that run
Sri Putra...ran below best..not sure why as is usually good marker

i'd go that TO has run to about a 120/122...making winner 126/128 ish
Cityscape to 112/113 ...making winner about 127/128
 
If they go 130 for that I'm seriously gonna question buying their Annual again. He beat Twice Over by a little under three ******* Lengths fer christ sake.
 
On a different matter re Eclipse Stks, Sir Henry Cecil's comments on RP Sunday were interesting on Reference Point's defeat to Mtoto; saying it is a race for 4yo+ and he would never run a 3yo in it again.
If so, The Pattern deserves inspection and renewal. Since Giants Causeway v Kalanisi in2000 we have not ,imo, had a proper 3yo v 4yo run off on this race.Hawk Wing beat Sholokov, Orotorio beat Motivator and Sea The Stars beat Rip Van Winkle, all the same age when proper 10f 4yo + either were not present or did not run.
Pre King George VI + QE2 era Eclipse was run in Mid July (correct me if incorrect) so is the race too early for all age combat as DHC thinks?
While it was arguably Nashwan's best performance( according to WCarson) he may have felt the effects after.
Some also ran 3yo have no great record after; Bellotto comes to mind.
Maybe those 3yo that have won the Eclipse deserve higher ratings for their efforts?
I know I have sung a variation of this tune before but SHC comment got me thinking again; thats all. Comments ?
 
July Cup
Sussex
Eclipse
King George

In an ideal world this is the order those races should fall. Seems very strange that the first chance the 3yo's get against the older horses isn't at the shortest trip.
 
When the Prince Of Wales's was a Group 2, three year olds could run in that.

I seem to remember a horse called Two Timing winning it for Jeremy Tree.

If I am not mistaken they could also run in the Lockinge
 
uncle goober said:
When the Prince Of Wales's was a Group 2, three year olds could run in that.

I seem to remember a horse called Two Timing winning it for Jeremy Tree.

If I am not mistaken they could also run in the Lockinge
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Two Timing did indeed win the PoW Stakes as a 3-y-o in 1989, and a number of 3-y-o's have won the Lockinge, most notably Habitat in 1969. He carried the welter burden of 7st11lb!
 
Placerville was another 3yo to win the Prince Of Wales's

I think the Lockinge dropped three year olds when it gained its promotion to group one in 1995. They didn't run in it that often. Young Generation was another to win it.
 
Euronymous said:
July Cup
Sussex
Eclipse
King George

In an ideal world this is the order those races should fall. Seems very strange that the first chance the 3yo's get against the older horses isn't at the shortest trip.
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King's Stand & Golden Jubilee are both 3yo+.
 
Cecil is one of those people who moan when it suits. Sometimes great horses get beat. It happened to Brigadier Gerard, Nijinsky, Shergar, etc

Godolphin regularly drag out the old wfa excuse whenever one of theirs is beaten by a 3yo.
 
EC1 said:
I'm talking about yesterday...Sri Putra was beaten miles..he is a good marker you said...which is true for his last 15 races

using an improving horse's previous ratings to rate a race is flawed

Its like when Excelebration ran FTO against Frankel as a 3yo..oooh thats a poor run..E is only an 89 horse...err no ...E has improved

Does anyone believe that Farrh is a 118 horse now?
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Obvioulsy right

Farhh was better than 120 at Thirsk,
next 2 runs were improved form
 
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