Epsom Derby 2012

The Lingfield Derby Trial is down on its luck. Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s, it was a major pointer not just to the Derby, but also to the St. Leger. A slew of top colts followed victory in the Surrey trial venue with a win either in nearby Epsom or faraway Doncaster. In fact, the roll call of Lingfield Derby Trial winners reads like a who’s who of gritty middle distance colts from the era.

Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi, Bob’s Return, Silver Patriarch, High-Rise. However, who would have guessed back in 1998, that we would have to wait 14 years for the next colt to follow up Lingfield Derby trial success with Derby success at Epsom? Thankfully, the wait is over. Main Sequence is about to ensure it.


The Niarchos family is no stranger to Classic success. Miesque, Divine Proportions, Six Perfections, Sulamani, Dream World and Spinning Well have all proven their superiority over their 3yo contemporaries, with most of them, as well as Bago, going on to further success in championship events. Here they have a colt that promises to smash the achievements of the aforementioned horses into smithereens. The horse is Main Sequence.

In contrast to the illustrious owners and the previously illustrious status of the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Niarchos Family have entrusted the handling of Main Sequence to the competent (but relatively inexperienced Lambourn handler David Lanigan. After apprenticeships with Vincent O’Brien, John Oxx and Edward O’Grady, Lanigan suckled from Henry Cecil’s ample teat of knowledge for years, before striking out on his own five years ago. Meeznah has been the standard bearer of the stable previously, but events on the All-Weather surface of Lingfield on May 12th have given very real hope to the legion of David Lanigan fans that he could be the 33rd youngest trainer to train a Derby winner.

Aldebaran is a red giant star located about 65 light years away in the zodiac constellation of Taurus. Aldebaran is also a stallion standing at JBBA Shizunai Stallion Station, having previously been champion US sprinter in 2003. Having previously raced for Henry Cecil, the Niarchos family sold a stake in the horse to race in the US for Bobby Frankel, where Aldebaran delivered on the promise he had shown for Sir Henry. Niarchos homebred Ikat was sent to Aldebaran four years ago, just before the latter set sail for Japan. Ikat (by Pivotal) was a 7f winner as a 2yo, but was placed later that autumn in a Group 3 race over a mile at Chantilly. She never won after her maiden success.

So, a horse out of a Pivotal 7f winning filly by the speedy Aldebaran. No chance of staying? Think again. Main Sequence’s fourth dam Northern Trick finished second in the 1984 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, his third dam Lingerie bred the 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift, and his second dam Burning Sunset was Group Two-placed in the 2001 Prix d'Harcourt over 1m2f. And Main Sequence has already won over 12f. Almost all of Aldebaran’s stock so far have improved with age. If Main Sequence can follow this progression, the Derby is his for the taking.

Admittedly there are slight stamina doubts, given his parentage. And foolish people may say that he may stay 12f, but he has never met horses of the calibre of the Derby field he is due to face on Saturday. However, the Derby field has never met a horse of the calibre of Main Sequence. Just like Dubai Milennium, he started his racing career with a win in a 1m Yarmouth maiden. Three subsequent winnes were left flailing in his wake. Next stop was a Newmarket nursery, with a smooth 3L win over rivals from top stables including subsequent multiple winners Fennell Bay, Come on Blue Chip and Winners Wish.

A mild winter on his back, and another trip back to HQ, for a 3yo handicap at the Craven meeting. Although the form doesn't look too hot in that race, it was the manner of victory that impressed, with Ted Durcan getting Main Sequence bedded down in the pack, and producing him late to show off his impressive turn of foot. Onwards and upwards to Lingfield, for his trial for Epsom. Durcan produced Main Sequence late again, and it looked too late. However, his trusty steed mowed his rivals down like a crazed and beligerent psychopath on a killing spree. Don't be among this colt's victims on Saturday. Beg, borrow or steal enough money to enable you to be able to afford to wave your miserable life goodbye and set sail for a life on Copacabana beach, all the while toasting Main Sequence's famous Derby triumph.
 
Imperial Monarch is yet another classy son of Galileo who can ruffle a few feathers in this year's Camelot obsessive Derby. Having only had two lifetime starts, both of which have resulted in wins, the horse can only improve with each race and I'd have thought he could improve dramatically come Saturday.
The usually well-informed Bill Esdaile has tweeted in the past hour that he has it for certain from a "good source" that Coolmore will tomorrow morning declare Imperial Monarch a non-runner in the Derby ......... will run in the Prix du Jockey Club on the Sunday instead.

Imp Mon beginning to drift on the exchanges, I see. (Any Imperial Monarch bettors might be interested that Ladbrokes have now gone NRNB on the Derby).
 
Imperial Monarch been on the drift since yesterday afternoon so I'd agree it looks like he's heading for Chantily. Though as Steve's figures indicate he is probably more a 12f horse than one suited by the shorter trip at Chantily.
 
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The usually well-informed Bill Esdaile has tweeted in the past hour that he has it for certain from a "good source" that Coolmore will tomorrow morning declare Imperial Monarch a non-runner in the Derby ......... will run in the Prix du Jockey Club on the Sunday instead.

Imp Mon beginning to drift on the exchanges, I see. (Any Imperial Monarch bettors might be interested that Ladbrokes have now gone NRNB on the Derby).

With Astrology, Imperial Monarch and Main Sequence among those still in Sunday's Prix du Jockey Club, something of this sort may happen. Thanks for the tip off. Personally I think this would be the wrong move for Imperial Monarch who seems to me much more of a St Leger type than a French Derby type.
 
Imperial Monarch been on the drift since yesterday afternoon so I'd agree it looks like he's heading for Chantily. Though as Steve's figures indicate he is probably more a 12f horse than one suited by the shorter trip at Chantily.

Yep... I think it would be the wrong move. He's showing the most stamina aptitude of all of them remaining in the Derby.
 
Astrology and Imperial Monarch remain in the French Derby but Main Sequence was taken out this morning.

Thanks for this. It seems one or other of Astrology and IM will run in Sunday's race then. Both should be better suited to the Derby rather than the French Derby, but if I had to choose I'd send Astrology to France, I think he would take the beating there.
 
The gypsys have decided Bonfire is the winner.

Then again I was once cursed by a gypsy at Epsom only to back the winner of the Coronation Cup 20 mins later.
 
if I had to choose I'd send Astrology to France,
Indeed, would seem the better option on your figures.
But I have already committed to a Place Lay on Imperial Monarch on the entrustment of Bill Esdaile's claim. Most of my 4.1 "ask" has been snapped.
(A small sweat until the antepost market closes at 10:00am tomorrow ). :o.
 
Thanks for this. It seems one or other of Astrology and IM will run in Sunday's race then. Both should be better suited to the Derby rather than the French Derby, but if I had to choose I'd send Astrology to France, I think he would take the beating there.

O'Brien has a dismal record in French classics. What price should IM be if he were to show up on Sunday?
 
Indeed, would seem the better option on your figures.
But I have already committed to a Place Lay on Imperial Monarch on the entrustment of Bill Esdaile's claim. Most of my 4.1 "ask" has been snapped.
(A small sweat until the antepost market closes at 10:00am tomorrow ). :o.

Good luck (and thanks again for the tip off). Bill's info is probably on the money (his popularity will nosedive if not;))... but I hope it proves false (...hope Anne-Marie is tuning in :)).
 
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The usually well-informed Bill Esdaile has tweeted in the past hour that he has it for certain from a "good source" that Coolmore will tomorrow morning declare Imperial Monarch a non-runner in the Derby.

That's the same Bill Esdaile who reported on GN day that Frankel had been retired - no "reportedly", no "rumoured to be" etc.
 
Please do tell me why Bruce.

SteveM, are you the SteveM who writes the dosage piece for the Weekender?

For some reason I have in mind that your are. I have no idea why but just wanted to check.
 
SteveM, are you the SteveM who writes the dosage piece for the Weekender?

For some reason I have in mind that your are. I have no idea why but just wanted to check.

Yep, the clue is in the name Zen. Are you by chance the Breeders' Cup Classic winner?
 
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