Epsom Derby 2012

The Lingfield Derby Trial is down on its luck. Back in the 1980’s and 1990’s, it was a major pointer not just to the Derby, but also to the St. Leger. A slew of top colts followed victory in the Surrey trial venue with a win either in nearby Epsom or faraway Doncaster. In fact, the roll call of Lingfield Derby Trial winners reads like a who’s who of gritty middle distance colts from the era.

Teenoso, Slip Anchor, Kahyasi, Bob’s Return, Silver Patriarch, High-Rise. However, who would have guessed back in 1998, that we would have to wait 14 years for the next colt to follow up Lingfield Derby trial success with Derby success at Epsom? Thankfully, the wait is over. Main Sequence is about to ensure it.

The Niarchos family is no stranger to Classic success. Miesque, Divine Proportions, Six Perfections, Sulamani, Dream World and Spinning Well have all proven their superiority over their 3yo contemporaries, with most of them, as well as Bago, going on to further success in championship events. Here they have a colt that promises to smash the achievements of the aforementioned horses into smithereens. The horse is Main Sequence.

In contrast to the illustrious owners and the previously illustrious status of the Lingfield Derby Trial, the Niarchos Family have entrusted the handling of Main Sequence to the competent (but relatively inexperienced Lambourn handler David Lanigan. After apprenticeships with Vincent O’Brien, John Oxx and Edward O’Grady, Lanigan suckled from Henry Cecil’s ample teat of knowledge for years, before striking out on his own five years ago. Meeznah has been the standard bearer of the stable previously, but events on the All-Weather surface of Lingfield on May 12th have given very real hope to the legion of David Lanigan fans that he could be the 33rd youngest trainer to train a Derby winner.

Aldebaran is a red giant star located about 65 light years away in the zodiac constellation of Taurus. Aldebaran is also a stallion standing at JBBA Shizunai Stallion Station, having previously been champion US sprinter in 2003. Having previously raced for Henry Cecil, the Niarchos family sold a stake in the horse to race in the US for Bobby Frankel, where Aldebaran delivered on the promise he had shown for Sir Henry. Niarchos homebred Ikat was sent to Aldebaran four years ago, just before the latter set sail for Japan. Ikat (by Pivotal) was a 7f winner as a 2yo, but was placed later that autumn in a Group 3 race over a mile at Chantilly. She never won after her maiden success.

So, a horse out of a Pivotal 7f winning filly by the speedy Aldebaran. No chance of staying? Think again. Main Sequence’s fourth dam Northern Trick finished second in the 1984 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, his third dam Lingerie bred the 2007 Oaks winner Light Shift, and his second dam Burning Sunset was Group Two-placed in the 2001 Prix d'Harcourt over 1m2f. And Main Sequence has already won over 12f. Almost all of Aldebaran’s stock so far have improved with age. If Main Sequence can follow this progression, the Derby is his for the taking.

Admittedly there are slight stamina doubts, given his parentage. And foolish people may say that he may stay 12f, but he has never met horses of the calibre of the Derby field he is due to face on Saturday. However, the Derby field has never met a horse of the calibre of Main Sequence. Just like Dubai Milennium, he started his racing career with a win in a 1m Yarmouth maiden. Three subsequent winnes were left flailing in his wake. Next stop was a Newmarket nursery, with a smooth 3L win over rivals from top stables including subsequent multiple winners Fennell Bay, Come on Blue Chip and Winners Wish.

A mild winter on his back, and another trip back to HQ, for a 3yo handicap at the Craven meeting. Although the form doesn't look too hot in that race, it was the manner of victory that impressed, with Ted Durcan getting Main Sequence bedded down in the pack, and producing him late to show off his impressive turn of foot. Onwards and upwards to Lingfield, for his trial for Epsom. Durcan produced Main Sequence late again, and it looked too late. However, his trusty steed mowed his rivals down like a crazed and beligerent psychopath on a killing spree. Don't be among this colt's victims on Saturday. Beg, borrow or steal enough money to enable you to be able to afford to wave your miserable life goodbye and set sail for a life on Copacabana beach, all the while toasting Main Sequence's famous Derby triumph.
 
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So the case for Thought Worthy.......

I've been thinking that people have misjudged his performance at sandown against Imperial monarch. Anyone with a stopwatch might want to have a look at that card and his performance in particular :ninja: :whistle:

In beating Rougemont 9 lengths that day and only running 1 3/4 lengths behind Imperial Monarch, Thought Worthy has put in a noteworthy run indeed. I backed him at 200's after that.

His maiden form has worked out very well with the next three in the race winning next time out; he was given a very educational ride that day as well and won going away.

His latest piece of form doesn't look overly strong on the face of it but there are a couple of mitigating factors. Firstly he ran very green looking anywhere but straight ahead and this was further compounded by the dip, which made him even more wayward. I'm also not sure the ground was ideal either.

Now the ground is likely to be as quick come Saturday but given the way he battled back at Newmarket and the fact he is a full brother to Lucarno (finished fourth in the race) should mean that the extra distance will bring about improvement, negating some of the ground factor. Gosden and Buick are flying as well, which always helps.

Now I'm not suggesting people should rush out and back him but there are enough reasons to think this colt could run a big race and get in the frame.
 
A frank and good appraisal of your pick their Aragorn. And like the others very persuasive.

I would just like to second the below comments regarding my choice, Mickdaam. Don't expect anything, I just like it.:)

Aragorn said:
Now I'm not suggesting people should rush out and back him but there are enough reasons to think this colt could run a big race and get in the frame.
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Bonfire edgt's idea of twelve forum members providing a critique of a horse each seems to have been taken by most as banging the drum of a horse one fancies. I'm taking a different tack with Bonfire who is a nice horse with a progressive profile but an unlikely winner. Dante winners always seem to be overbet and overrated for the Derby - for every Reference Point or Motivator or Authorized you have tens of Alnasr Alwasheek's, Dilshaan's, Black Bear Island's and Carlton House's.

I think Bonfire might stay on Saturday but won't be good enough to handle the favourite. His sire, Monduro, was best over 10f but probably stayed 12f and he's out of a Night Shift mare who is an influence primarily for speed. However Night Shift's best two racehorses - Azamour and In the Groove - were top class 10f horses who managed to eek out wins in the King George and Coronation Cup respectively. I think Bonfire might turn out close to being as good as them but I think his best trip will be 10f. There was a lot to like about his win at York against a colt in Ektihaam who had had a run already this season and who's pedigree screams 10f even more than Balding's creature does. Indeed I think he has a leading chance at Chantilly if he takes part. Bonfire won with plenty in hand that day but I think Camelot is a solid favourite for the race and Highclere have a more realistic Classic hope in Vow the day before.
 
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People can take the idea as they see fit. Negatvity can ruin threads and can end up getting personal even when not intended.
My idea stemmed from the fact that the connections of each horse thought enough of them to enter and then declare; there is not one just showing up for the day out as in other years. A little bit of fun is all that I have in mind so that when the runners are either on parade or breaking it we will have a decent if hyperbolic resumee of each runner, the kind you would like to hear on tv but dont anymore as racing gets further dumbed down to attract a diminishing audience.
My congratulations to all who have shared their observations so far. The wit,wisdom,interest and inventiveness is a joy to behold, to me at least.
Whoever wins the race would do well to use some of the resumes printed so far to promote the horse at stud.
 
I don't mind about the second one, but I hope they don't intend showing us the first of them.
 
Here's my contribution:

Impregnable Camelot has armoury to repel rivals at Derby trip

HEAVY RAINFALL in April and May and resultant soft going has cast doubt on the form of several of the most significant trials for the Investec Derby. Where the form is lacking or inconclusive we look to the Dosage system to give us our edge.

Contenders for the Derby, as a rule of thumb, require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of around 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going and how good the individual is to begin with.

The accompanying table shows 11 of the 12 left in at the confirmation stage. Bonfire is excluded as his point’s total of just six is too low for an accurate reading. It is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).

2012 Derby contenders

Colt Sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Imperial Monarch Galileo/Slip Anchor 3-0-10-9-4 = 26 0.44 -0.42
Father Of Science Galileo/Darshaan 4-0-11-5-2 = 22 0.76 -0.05
Camelot Montjeu/Kingmambo 6-1-17-8-0 = 32 0.94 0.16
Cavaleiro Sir Percy/Alhaarth 1-0-10-0-1 = 12 1.00 0.00
Astrology Galileo/Dr Fong 4-0-10-4-0 = 18 1.00 0.22
Thought Worthy Dynaformer/Diesis 6-2-23-1-2 = 34 1.34 0.26
Minimise Risk Galileo/Halo 8-1-17-4-0 = 30 1.40 0.43
Rugged Cross Cape Cross/Soviet Star 2-4-10-0-0 = 16 2.20 0.50
Main Sequence Aldebaran/Pivotal 8-3-11-1-1 = 24 2.20 0.67
Mickdaam Dubawi/Be My Guest 5-0-4-0-1 = 10 2.33 0.80
Tower Rock Dylan Thomas/Mr Prospector 11-4-17-0-0 = 32 2.76 0.81

Key to Profile: Left to right columns, ranging from speed to stamina: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid, Professional. DI = Dosage index; CD = Centre of distribution.
The Centre of Distribution (CD) scale complements the DI. The CD covers the range from +2 to -2, where +2 corresponds to the Brilliant aptitudinal group in the Dosage profile (DP), +1 corresponds to Intermediate, 0 corresponds to Classic, -1 corresponds to Solid, and -2 corresponds to Professional. A low (close to zero) or negative CD indicates enhanced stamina potential.

Team Ballydoyle
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Camelot just can’t please some folk. He was doubted before the 2,000 Guineas (with some going as far as saying the son of Montjeu couldn’t win the spring classic) and was also damned with faint praise after winning the Guineas as the best of a mediocre bunch. The fact is he won the race in fine style, almost counter to his natural stamina attributes, coming from off the pace and using his turn of foot to outperform his rivals, from a high class natural miler in French Fifteen. I commented in my 2,000 Guineas preview that despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper dam side influences and was just the Montjeu progeny type likely do very well in the Guineas. However, this does not compromise his chances at 12 furlongs. Indeed, Camelot is a broad spectrum horse showing a good spread of points in his profile and the type that that should manage to win over a range of distances. Everything about him suggests that he will make up into a fine middle-distance individual and he will take a world of beating here.

Camelot’s stablemate Imperial Monarch has already been successful at 10 furlongs and appears at the top of our table being a Galileo/Slip Anchor cross. He is liable to show pronounced stamina attributes at a mile-and-a-half and beyond and looks an ideal St Leger type. He has nevertheless also shown a decent turn of foot and can prove effective at 12 furlongs.

Wide margin Dee Stakes winner Astrology no doubt had his task made easier by the withdrawal of Bonfire due to the soft going, but made no bones about putting his field to the sword. He falls into a group that occupy a ‘sweet spot’ with regard to stamina aptitude for this race.

High Chaparral’s half brother Father Of Science is a Galileo/Darshaan cross, appearing near the top of our table, while Tower Rock, appearing at the bottom, completes Ballydoyle’s Epsom team as a likely pacemaker.


Dante a leading Epsom trial
SEVEN Dante winners have gone on to win the Derby since 1980 and four in the past eight years. Bonfire was a fine winner of this season’s renewal holding off a determined challenger. The Dosage isn’t much help to us here as Bonfire has a point’s total of just six, which is too low for an accurate reading. However, the Andrew Balding-trained colt shares his sire Manduro with Mandaean, so has a chance of staying despite the suspicion that he could prove more of a 10 furlong horse. Minimise Risk is also a possible runner for Balding and while the Galileo colt should be at home with the trip he looks to be short of sufficient ability at this level.

Thought Worthy (a full brother to Lucarno, who was fourth to Authorized in the 2007 Derby) got the better of Noble Mission (carrying a 5lb penalty) in a tight finish at Newmarket at Listed level over 10 furlongs, a race that also included Derby hopeful Rugged Cross. Thought Worthy can be expected to stay 12 furlongs, although there are concerns that the colt will be able to handle the undulations at Epsom. Rugged Cross scores no points in the stamina wing of his profile and may come up short.

The Richard Fahey-trained Chester Vase winner Mickdaam should not be inconvenienced by the trip, but others make more appeal. Paul Hanagan is set to take the ride.

The unbeaten Main Sequence won the Lingfield Derby Trial and is a credible contender. There are others with more appropriate stamina profiles however. Cavaleiro was placed behind Main Sequence for Marcus Tregoning at Lingfield. The Derby trip should play to his strengths and he has pleased in recent work.

Dosage Derby track record
The Dosage system helped us to select the winner and first four in 2008 and the winner and first five in 2007. New Approach was taken to outperform his earlier efforts at a mile over middle distances in 2008, while Authorized was the confident selection the year before that, conforming to a profile that was a virtual blueprint for the race.

Fame And Glory was our choice in 2009, also appearing to be an excellent candidate – as indeed he proved by taking the Irish Derby – but had to settle for runner-up spot at Epsom to a brilliant atypical winner in Sea The Stars.

Workforce had the sort of reading we might expect for the Derby in 2010 and Pour Moi was the confident selection to ruin the Queen’s day by putting race favourite Carlton House in his place last year.

Speed/stamina balance
The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a DI of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. However, the average DI for the past 10 winners is a little higher at 1.19 and those in a band between about DI 0.8 and 1.4 appear best suited to the requirements of the race (see table).

Dosage of previous 10 Derby winners
Year Colt DI
2011 Pour Moi 0.78
2010 Workforce 1.44
2009 Sea The Stars 3.00
2008 New Approach 0.89
2007 Authorized* 0.86* (from 1.00)
2006 Sir Percy 0.54
2005 Motivator 1.43
2004 North Light* 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 Kris Kin* 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 High Chaparral 0.82

Average 1.19
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)

The winners who matched this requirement, of the past 10 winners are: Pour Moi (DI 0.78), Workforce (1.44), New Approach (0.89), Authorized (0.86), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05) and High Chaparral (0.82). The exceptional Sea The Stars is the outlier here – a colt with a DI of 3 would not normally be expected to last the Derby trip.

Shortlist
The best matches this year are: Camelot (DI 0.94), Cavaleiro (1.00), Astrology (1.00), Thought Worthy (1.34) and Minimise Risk (1.40).

Of those with realistic chances we are left with Camelot and Astrology and possibly Cavaleiro. We might add Imperial Monarch who appears at the head of our table for stamina aptitude but has also shown a turn of foot and the excluded Bonfire, for winning the Dante.

Camelot is preferred with all of the necessary attributes required for victory. His main opposition is likely to come from his own stablemates Imperial Monarch and Astrology and possibly also from Bonfire, despite some doubt about that one fully seeing out the trip.

Verdict
1) Camelot
2) Imperial Monarch
3) Bonfire
4) Astrology
5) Cavaleiro
6) Main Sequence
 
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Good post SteveM,

It's a shame that averages don't really tell you much neither do raw figures but if you wanted a more in depth professional analysis of Dosage Index's then I'd advise you to pop over to a website called OHRacing which has a member called Spook who has delivered quite a riveting piece of statistical analysis in an event of trapping the winner through dosage predictions and I'm sure he has come to the same conclusion as you.

That being said, I do like how you've come around to the idea of Bonfire & Astrology like myself being on at 8/1 & 25/1 respectively although I think your final positioning's may well be quite accurate come the day - regrettably.
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
I'd advise you to pop over to a website called OHRacing which has a member called Spook who has delivered quite a riveting piece of statistical analysis in an event of trapping the winner through dosage predictions and I'm sure he has come to the same conclusion as you.
Click to expand...

Spook used to post on this site under a different name.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Good post SteveM,

It's a shame that averages don't really tell you much neither do raw figures but if you wanted a more in depth professional analysis of Dosage Index's then I'd advise you to pop over to a website called OHRacing which has a member called Spook who has delivered quite a riveting piece of statistical analysis in an event of trapping the winner through dosage predictions and I'm sure he has come to the same conclusion as you.

That being said, I do like how you've come around to the idea of Bonfire & Astrology like myself being on at 8/1 & 25/1 respectively although I think your final positioning's may well be quite accurate come the day - regrettably.
Click to expand...

I don't think Steve needs any help with dosage!
 
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