Epsom Derby 2012

Zenyatta said:
His Guineas win showed that he has speed, but, at the same time, probably confirmed that he wasn't a miler.

I think you can take that evidence one of two ways:

1. He showed enough speed to win the Guineas at a mile so will be exceptional when he steps up to his correct trip of 10f/12f.

2. He showed enough speed to win the Guineas at a mile so might well not stay when stepped up to what people perceive to be his correct trip.

I think he will, at the very least, get away with the trip in the Derby and I think he will probably be stay fine. You obviously can't be certain that he will until he tries.

I was under the impression (I confess without doing the research myself) that Bonfire's stamina was in question as well. I thought his dam was more of a speed influence.

However, as the old saying goes, if the horse is a definite stayer then it is probably too slow.
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The thing that irks me about your post Zeneytta is the constant referring to Camelot showing speed, ok fair enough I give you that the horse has the ability to go from A-Z but I'd put that down to class rather than speed.

If we're talking about acceleration he'll fall in that bracket to but the real speed is being able to sustain your maximum level of velocity over a longer duration than the rest and the classier horses can do this for longer but what we saw in the 2000 Guineas is the horse didn't sustain this and more worryingly he didn't sustain this under a slow-medium pace.

For me he's just the class above the rest in the 2000 Guineas field which enabled him to get out of the position he was in but let me tell you this the bar will be raised on the energy he's going to have to consume through the likely hood of a strong pace come Derby Day and those questions about his speed will be put into question because when he's going to be asked to do a 2:28:00 from 2f out after his excertions throughout the race I can guarantee you there won't be much of a long lived effort despite inevitably travelling through into a promising position where he'll be an even bigger lay in running.

Put it this way, if Camelot had never run in The Racing Post Trophy then his 2000 Guineas win would have been put under immense scrutiny and I hold my word by that in saying that if anything that race has given him visually the reputation that lays before him right now and people are assuming his 2000 Guineas effort was a significant evidence of this when it clearly wasn't, it clearly to my eye wasn't.

Take away the RP Trophy and he's a no-mark like Astrology, Imperial Monarch, Memphis Tennessee who quite worryingly have probably put up better racecourse performances than Camelot but we go back to the old adage of the The RP Trophy were he "sauntered through the field on the bridle, visually a remarkable performance".

He'd be at least a 4/1 shot without that run.
 
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Marble said:
Mickdaam is in the Chester classic trials this week. Now there's a 3yo colt who I think could be progressive: Wouldn't know whether the derby would be for him but you never know.
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This horse will shorten up to reflect his true chance come Saturday:)

You have all been warned...
 
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Well I'm happy enough to see Thought Worthy lining up cos at least I'll get a run for my bets (5 @ 200 & 4@ 80) but to be honest I'm not holding out much hope.

Good luck with Mickdaam Marble but I think we will both need it!! We could both do with a few more downpours as well!!
 
You should join in with me Aragorn that way when he runs the big race I think he will I won't be alone in celebrating on Saturday night.

Second thoughts, I've a date on Saturday night so won't be around!

Seriously though, do you have him as a soft ground performer, Aragorn?

The best is yet to come, very progressive type and I think what he did last time was a bonus on the ground: He proved that he's got the freakish engine to run well here, even though he might come up short on the day against Camelot.

E/W I really think I'll get a bloody good run for my money.

I'm happy to see Camelot be proved a superstar and he is clearly a bank job for many but I'm not rich enough to be backing him at those odds.
 
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Not necessarily but he acts on it and I think he'll need it soft to slow them down enough; otherwise I don't think he's got the gears. Same applies to Thought Worthy although I also expect the step up in trip to bring about some improvement as well, which is similar to what happened to Mickdaam last time.

Both are there because of who owns them and their breeding rather than them being realistic contenders for the win. I would not be surprised to see something in the places at a bigger price but that's feck all use to me as i've backed it to win!!!!
 
its odd that if Camelot had not run before the Derby he would considered a good thing..but because he has won the guineas first he is somehow a lesser horse for doing so..with his breeding the guineas is a bonus..as with STS

the guineas hasn't answered whether he wants 10f or 12f though
 
With 12 horses left it would really make this thread if twelve wise senior members posted a critique of one horse each. Be as objective as natural bias allows you.Be as comprehensive as your knowledge allows. Come saturday evening one of you will have bragging rights for the rest of the year while the others can shrug in the knowledge that " Thats racing". Any takers?
 
Mickdaam Preview

Mickdaam has the athletic characteristics of Martin Keown in this 2012 Derby field, has the versatility to make the key moves that will be crucial on Saturday, and in contrast to other less proven horses that look prettier based on previous races and trials, has the race experience and prowess to provide a good show and make the first three on Saturday. In a field with one Thierry Henry paced animal in the favourite Camelot, and a batch of horses that are so tender formwise, they'll probably fall over more times in the parade ring than Christiano Ronaldo in the Champions League final, if you want a horse that is crying out for a group 1 race over twelve furlongs, has improved stones as a three year old, prefers a left handed track and comes here on the back of a career best, choose Mickdaam. The way last years winner Pour Moi won his derby, may suggest you either want a horse with an abundance of speed and class like Camelot, or a race ready and durable three year old on an upward curve in Mickdaam. At 33/1 he is very much overpriced.
 
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Imperial Monarch is yet another classy son of Galileo who can ruffle a few feathers in this year's Camelot obsessive Derby. Having only had two lifetime starts, both of which have resulted in wins, the horse can only improve with each race and I'd have thought he could improve dramatically come Saturday. Out of George Strawbridge's mare, Ionian Sea, Imperial Monarch ought to improve for faster ground having had both his starts thus far on soft or heavy. The fact the horse has won both starts under conditions that likely aren't ideal only goes to show that he can be in the mix on Saturday. In his latest start at Sandown he beat another Derby contender, Thought Worthy, who's subsequently gone on to beat Frankel's brother, Noble Mission. With his preferred conditions on Saturday and improvement likely anyway with each start, I expect Imperial Monarch to be thereabouts and at 16/1 he represents decent value, too.
 
Imperial Monarch.
Saturday Sept 10 2011 was a red letter day at The Curragh. Four Classic winners raced that day and IM may well be the fifth and potentially the best of the lot. A 210000gns purchase at Tatts October sales he made his debut in a mile maiden. An impressive looker and walker, one could not help but feel better was to come. Though Ballydoyle had a hot favourite in this race Pat Keating led Imperial Monarch around, always significant in2year old races where there are multiple Ballydoyle runners. He didnt half win,fulfilling all promise and keeping his dams record intact of all her ten racing offspring winners. Not surprisingly he was then put away for the winter. An impressive return when taking the Notnowcato+ route at Sandown showed his resolution and willingness to run alone, impressive in only his second race. So far so good.
His pedigree is a whos who of impressive performers from his sire Galileo to his 3\4 brother The Great Gatsby whose Epsom run was Pat Edderys best tactical Derby ride. Straight to front he packed,stacked and racked his field coming down Tattenham Hill before making the best of his way home, only giving way to Kris Kin late on. Slip Anchor is dam sire, another memorable 85 winner. Grand dam Snow Day is dam of Blue Stag, runner up in 90. For good measure fourth dam Heavenly Body is ggdam of Sakhee, runner up to Sinndar.
Aiden O Brien s Epsom record suggests that all his horses have near equal chances in The Derby. Consider 2009 when short heads separated 3 or 4 of his runners as well as placed horses at fancy prices too numerous to mention. All his stable jockeys have shown the ability to ride Epsom to maximise their mounts chances.
The letter I has not named a Derby winner since the 19th century so that too is overdue. This diamond jubilee year there would be no more fittingly named winner since Diamond Jubilee in 1900. I commend Imperial Monarch to one and all to get his family back into The Derby winners enclosure after so many near misses.
 
edgt said:
Imperial Monarch.
Saturday Sept 10 2011 was a red letter day at The Curragh. Four Classic winners raced that day and IM may well be the fifth and potentially the best of the lot. A 210000gns purchase at Tatts October sales he made his debut in a mile maiden. An impressive looker and walker, one could not help but feel better was to come. Though Ballydoyle had a hot favourite in this race Pat Keating led Imperial Monarch around, always significant in2year old races where there are multiple Ballydoyle runners. He didnt half win,fulfilling all promise and keeping his dams record intact of all her ten racing offspring winners. Not surprisingly he was then put away for the winter. An impressive return when taking the Notnowcato+ route at Sandown showed his resolution and willingness to run alone, impressive in only his second race. So far so good.
His pedigree is a whos who of impressive performers from his sire Galileo to his 3\4 brother The Great Gatsby whose Epsom run was Pat Edderys best tactical Derby ride. Straight to front he packed,stacked and racked his field coming down Tattenham Hill before making the best of his way home, only giving way to Kris Kin late on. Slip Anchor is dam sire, another memorable 85 winner. Grand dam Snow Day is dam of Blue Stag, runner up in 90. For good measure fourth dam Heavenly Body is ggdam of Sakhee, runner up to Sinndar.
Aiden O Brien s Epsom record suggests that all his horses have near equal chances in The Derby. Consider 2009 when short heads separated 3 or 4 of his runners as well as placed horses at fancy prices too numerous to mention. All his stable jockeys have shown the ability to ride Epsom to maximise their mounts chances.
The letter I has not named a Derby winner since the 19th century so that too is overdue. This diamond jubilee year there would be no more fittingly named winner since Diamond Jubilee in 1900. I commend Imperial Monarch to one and all to get his family back into The Derby winners enclosure after so many near misses.
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Great stuff, where do I sign?
 
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Astrology, Imperial Monarch and Main Sequence are among 30 remaining in Sunday's Prix du Jockey Club after today’s first forfeit stage.
 
trackside528 said:
I'll take Tower Rock; short write-up to come. :cool:
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Not so sure. Treasure beach anyone ! Similar improvement to that one would see him on the premises. A creditable performance would be good for business. First crop of Dylan Thomas (3 time Grp 1 winner at 1m4f )is out of a full sister to Kingmambo.He has followed the traditional Irish route to the Derby. Light heavy had to dig deep to beat him a nk and he was not beaten up.Improving. Would we be surprised to see him placed ?
 
The Derby Camelot Starting Price

4-7 to 4-6
10/11

8-11 to 4-5
2

8-15 or shorter
3

5-6 to Evs
10

Greater than Evs
20
 
I'll take Thought Worthy as i've backed him... Although i'll spend most of it justifying why I backed him 6 weeks ago and not why to back him now!!!! :)

I reckon Camelot could drift on the day mostly because people on track won't want to back a short priced favourite, especially when there are other unexposed colts lining up against him at far better prices.
 
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