Epsom Derby

Originally posted by Irish Stamp@Jun 4 2006, 06:37 PM
Anyone think that the camber at Epsom had anything to do with it? I know it's the first breakdown in a while, the last I can recall was Scimitarra (in the 1989 Oaks?) but if a horse has soundness problems or suspected problems then running on a slope can't do him any good.
Coshocton 2002?

As regards the tape..... urm..... If it exists (a big if) it might come to light eventually, but some how I doubt it.

In any case, surely Fallon would have finsihed the sentance with "you know"
 
What happened to the first quote of Fallon saying 'I thought he felt a bit stiff' (on the way to post)? That's rather more specific than 'felt a bit flat'. However...

"If I wasn't happy with him, I wouldn't have gone round on him"- that seems to tell its own story, if it's to be believed that Kieren could and would refuse to race the horse. So in the end, he felt happy with him, rode him, and the horse broke a leg. That, to be blunt, is that.

Stiff, flat, stumbled, clipped heels, none of it's at all relevant now and it's pointless to conjecture on conversations. I imagine at most it went along the lines of Kieren telling O'Brien HN hadn't felt quite right on the way down, and to take a look over him. O'Brien, his own vet, and the course vet take a shufti as the horse is shuttled around at the trot. Nope, can't see he's lame, Kieren. Okay, must've just been a bit of stiffness that's worn off. Yeah, looks fine now, whatever it was. Away you go.

And that's about it, folks, or else the two vets would have refused to have let a lame/stiff horse run. They, too, have reputations and livelihoods to protect.
 
Having re-read the thread, It's somewhat unfortunate that I discover that it appears to be me that first used the phrase 'over ruled'. Admittedly, I was doing so in the context of trying to describe a look of thunder on Fallon's face (something which could easily be attributable to 101 things under the circumstances) and it was perhaps clumsy english, as it could clearly be interpreted to suggest that is precisely what I was suggesting had happened. As I've said I'm no expert on body language, and simply don't know. Heavens above, there's no shortage of reasons why Fallon would be looking decidely pissed off. The difference I thought i detected (and its only an impression) was that where everyone else (including Mag) had a sense of sadness about them, Fallon appeared angry. Very little of any substance for me to base an argument on (Indeed I can't) it's just a subjetcive observation

For what it's worth, I think Kriz is probably close to getting it right. Though I suspect there might have been a difference of opinion between Jockey and Trainer (it's hardly unheard of afterall) but this was probably not one of intense polarised opinion, but rather based on uncertainty. The shaking of ones head normally represents disapproval, but it was pensive rather than animated, and to be caught on camera doing this 30 seconds before the gates open is unusual I'd have thought?. I think Fallon had reservations, but not to the extent that he could be certain. Similarly O'Brien must have had a nagging doubt, but along with everyone involved, made a percentage call based on his experience.

If some kind of heated row did blow up though, there were certainly enough people within earshot for it to seep out in time, (even in the closed shop that racing is). The simple fact is we don't know
 
You are all space cadets. A fckin tape now!!! Derbygate.

Horses breakdown. Whether they are badly bred banded runners or Group 1 superstars. I am sure that connections of either mean only the very best for them, either way.
 
As regrettable as this all was, hindsight is a wonderful thing that can make geniuses out of many.

Fallon may well have had doubts at the start but you can bet your bottom dollar that if he really was that unhappy with the horse a volatile character such as his will have well and truly spat the dummy and not have carried on and willingly been loaded into the stalls.

I've often known horses that have been "a bit stiff" or worried that they were "a bit unlevel" on the way to the gallops but on warming them up a bit the stiffness has eased, the horse has felt fine and no harm has been done. No-one can really predict that a horse is about to suffer a fatal fracture, especially after a bit of stiffness, much less a horse not feeling as fluid as they usually do.

At the end of the day, Coolmore would far rather have something to market as a stallion prospect on their hands even if it was withdrawn when second favourite for the Derby. Running the horse if they thought it was wrong and had a good chance of injuring himself will have done them no favours whatsoever.
 
There is only one question you have to ask yourself in this instance. Do you think Aidan O'Brien would have ran the horse if Kieran Fallon had made it clear he was not happy for the horse to run? I am 100% sure he would have withdrawn the horse if this was the case.
 
I think we should let this lie. A lot of the bashing the Coolmore team have taken over this is down to who they are.
 
AC: what do you mean, 'badly bred' Banded runners? Have you actually checked out some of those pedigrees? I'm getting sick of this crap about Banded horses, most of which are just animals which dropped down their previous ratings or which failed to fire, being badly bred. I thought we'd managed to get past dissing low-rated horses on the basis of their bloodline. By all means diss them on the basis of the current rating and performance levels, but not their breeding.

And NO, we are not all 'space cadets', since I don't see a rush to agreement about 'a tape' - most of us ignored that as the idiotic idea it is. What was that about 'attack the post, not the poster'?
 
"You are all space cadets. A fckin tape now!!! Derbygate" An, I didn't post that one lightly. I was with an ex jockey in Swindon today (he's Irish) and he said the talk was of a tape someone had made down at the start and it covered the brief exchange between the two mentioned. Maybe we should post fcuk all on here.
 
Euro - the day this forum ceases to examine the entrails of every hot topic in the minutest detail is the day it dies! I couldn't, personally, care less who was connected to this horse - I'm as irrelevant to them as they are to me. Kieren said he wouldn't have ridden HN if he felt there was anything wrong with him. As there would have been every possibility that by riding a horse likely to go wrong would have jeopardized his own health, if not his life, he'd have been an idiot to have done otherwise. As it turned out, he was lucky that the poor horse didn't crash out at speed and damage his jockey. No professional, experienced rider, especially one of such standing as Kieren, would take a stupid chance with his own life.
 
Aidan - if I had time to go back through all the eulogising posts on here that - most of the time - AOB has generated, I would. I've been among the many who've sung his praises and, unlike the majority on here, have done so purely because I admire his skill and not because I've made easy money by backing one of his runners.

However, I also have the right to criticise if something offends me and yesterday it did. You are all entitled to your own opinions just as I am mine and say what you like, pictures tell a thousand stories - the one I read was that Fallon was not happy with that colt - you obviously disagree.

As far as I'm concerned, end of discussion. Although the word 'discussion' is used loosely considering some of the posts above hardly merit the term....
 
Originally posted by krizon@Jun 4 2006, 10:16 PM
Euro - the day this forum ceases to examine the entrails of every hot topic in the minutest detail is the day it dies!
But it`s only a hot topic because of the connections. If it had been one of the lesser known horses/owners/trainers who had been involved it wouldn`t have created this much of a stir.
 
I think we just got whupped up onto one of those circular discussion highways, Euro: we're talking about the horse who was a hot second favourite for the Derby, as far as I'm concerned, the same way as we discussed BARBARO - because of the horse's vaunted position. I don't care who either horse's owner or trainer is/was - we're surely talking about Horatio's loss because he was such a good horse, and because he was so much favoured?

Kieren's said there's no way he'd have ridden him if he thought there was anything amiss, which is - let's face it - the only response he can/should make publicly. HN was viewed by his trainer, the course vet (highly experienced) and his OWN vet - and they figured he was okay to go ahead. He MIGHT have been feeling something on his way down, and then it passed off for a while. He did stumble, so he MIGHT have started his fracture at that point. Lots of mights, not a lot of dids. That's why we rattle the subject around, to look at it from all angles before we tie it up. (Hmm... not too sure about the mixed metaphors there!) :D

As for only talking about the incident because of the horse's top connections? Hey, if NODDIES WAY had broken a leg, we'd be rattling on here big time about how wicked it was to have run him for the first time in a Derby, how greedy of the owner, how irresponsible, blah, blah, blah! You know it's true... :lol:
 
My final offering on this topic (I hope) and purely in the spirit of conjecture, speculation and hypothesis, unashamedly thin as it is of facts.

This is what I think's probably happened?

Kieren flags the horse; he's not comfortable that everything is 100%
The horse is then put through a trot cycle
A combination of AOB, Jenny Hall and Coolmore vet can't detect anything (quite possibly feeding of each other in their combined assertions)
Kieren still harbouring some reservations and concerns consents to load, in recognition of the combined expertise and respect that the others involved have. He's not sure they're right, but neither is he certain they're wrong.
The rest as they say, is history

I'm struggling to believe there was any threats and instructions issued etc though since tensions would have been running high, even under normal circumstances it doesn't leave much to the imagination to believe there was a bit of colourful language exchanged, given who at least one of the key players is.

As regards the tape? the BBC obviously had microphones down at the start, so its feasible that they picked up something? However there would have been about 20 other jockeys milling round, not to mention a team of stall handlers. On top of that HN was in a trot cycle which presumedly brought him nearer and further away from any fixed recording position. Again I'm struggling to believe (unless someone's gone through it with all these software sound manipulation things that can remove ambient noise and isolate individuals) that it is particularly clear and enjoys perfect unbroken continuity thus? I'm even more certain that we'll never get to hear it, if indeed it exists

Ultimately, it was bad judgement call in hindsight, but I think there's a danger that we're condeming the outcome of the decision, rather than the decision itself, and that to say the horse is dead, so it was wrong is a bit to simplistic.

To my mind it comes back to that cricket analogy i drew earlier, where a batsman selects a calculated risky shot, and excutes it with perfect aplomb to score runs, and everyone applauds it. The next ball he goes through the identical process, assesses the situation and elects to make the same decision, but this time he gets it wrong and is dismissed, and everyone calls him reckless and irresponsible. His thought process was identical in both cases, the only thing that's different is the result of his execution of the decision he's made. He can't be right one ball, and then wrong the next under identical circumstances. As such we make the mistake of judging the outcome rather than the process.
 
Originally posted by Warbler+Jun 4 2006, 07:51 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Warbler @ Jun 4 2006, 07:51 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Irish Stamp@Jun 4 2006, 06:37 PM
Anyone think that the camber at Epsom had anything to do with it?  I know it's the first breakdown in a while, the last I can recall was Scimitarra (in the 1989 Oaks?) but if a horse has soundness problems or suspected problems then running on a slope can't do him any good.
Coshocton 2002?

As regards the tape..... urm..... If it exists (a big if) it might come to light eventually, but some how I doubt it.

In any case, surely Fallon would have finsihed the sentance with "you know" [/b][/quote]
I didn't include his Warbler as it was a heart-attack rather than a breakdown. Was bar the Rock of Gibraltar Guineas I saw probably the worst Classic I've attended :(
 
I understood that Coshocton broke a leg as he went down as a result of either a heart attack or embolism.

Alfini was the worst I have seen. That was Mana Mou Bay's Guineas and I can't watch that race 'cos of A's breakdown
 
I would like to post my regret for my immoderate use of words in my last contribution to this debate, and to those offended by them.

My feelings remain unaltered.
 
As one who shares an capall's views I thought that the following from Greg Wood's Guardian piece this morning was worth repeating;;

"Anyone who believes that Aidan O'Brien would risk running one of his horses in any race, be it the Derby or a maiden at Cork, if he were not entirely satisfied that it was up to the task, has not been paying attention for the last 10 years."
 
And of course, Brian, you are a great believer in everything you read in the papers being true....

Anyone - even AOB - can make a mistake. Especially when under extreme pressure such as two minutes before the off in The Derby.
 
Originally posted by Songsheet@Jun 5 2006, 12:44 PM
And of course, Brian, you are a great believer in everything you read in the papers being true....

As C P Scott famously said 'Comment is free, but facts are sacred'. The paper that he founded, unlike too many others, continues to support this philosophy today. Greg Wood was commenting by expressing his opinion. It's one I share.
 
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