S
solerina
Guest
Worst possible news but it looked sickening at the time . It would have been interesting to hear Fallon's side of this .
Epsom Derby
- Thread starter Guest_
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Wouldn't have thought he would want to be interviewed yet.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
R.I.P.
Mixed feelings about todays race.
The winner is a good horse and did it well from the position he was 2 out, and not having had the ideal preparation, the jockey did it very bravely looking for the gap.
Dragon Dancer run surprisingly well and with Dylan thomas so close , the race provides some doubts about the form.
Hala Bek is the best horse in the field and a mixed of inexperience and the inept ride of his jockey lost him the race, I just hope this has not been too hard for such an inexperienced horse who has had a setback coming to race and he recovers soon from his exertions.
Visindar was not good enough and could find a gr2 or an easy gr1 in a flat track in coming months.
About the Horatio affair, I think he should not had run, this is the 3 horse Obrien has run and is inujred to finish their careers or being put down(King Of Kings and Gipsy King the others)
Of the rest
really dissapointed with Septimus and Lindas Lad.
I dont think any horse of this field will win the open gr1 races against the older horses.
The winner is a good horse and did it well from the position he was 2 out, and not having had the ideal preparation, the jockey did it very bravely looking for the gap.
Dragon Dancer run surprisingly well and with Dylan thomas so close , the race provides some doubts about the form.
Hala Bek is the best horse in the field and a mixed of inexperience and the inept ride of his jockey lost him the race, I just hope this has not been too hard for such an inexperienced horse who has had a setback coming to race and he recovers soon from his exertions.
Visindar was not good enough and could find a gr2 or an easy gr1 in a flat track in coming months.
About the Horatio affair, I think he should not had run, this is the 3 horse Obrien has run and is inujred to finish their careers or being put down(King Of Kings and Gipsy King the others)
Of the rest
really dissapointed with Septimus and Lindas Lad.
I dont think any horse of this field will win the open gr1 races against the older horses.
After having had a bit a time to reflect on the race, (not the incident) I think the one people appear to have missed might be Papal Bull?. I reckons he's finished 8.5L's away after having been face whipped down the backstraight and shuffled to the back of the field by the time they reached the top turn. He's also noted as being hampered when launching from 2F out. Given Dragon Dancers finishing position, you might think he'd be the horse to take out of the race, at least equally as much as Hala Bek whose drawn all the plaudits by viture of being that bit more visible.
Should also say congrats to Gal, on his reading of the Septimus, described his race perfectly. :lol: Luckily I developed enough confidence in my ratings to have a rattle at Dylan Thomas at the 11th hour for a place. So congrats to Gareth too who also picked him out as being way over the odds
Should also say congrats to Gal, on his reading of the Septimus, described his race perfectly. :lol: Luckily I developed enough confidence in my ratings to have a rattle at Dylan Thomas at the 11th hour for a place. So congrats to Gareth too who also picked him out as being way over the odds
Sir Percy put in a really gutsy performance over a distance that I'd thought might be just beyond his best. Having been jarred up after the Guineas he could have been excused putting in a more tentative effort.
Predictably, Visindar didn't stay, having looked seriosly dangerous 2 or 3 furlongs out.
Hala Bek was unlucky, would have won narrowly had he known what was expected of him (not just talking through my pocket!).
Terrible about Horatoi Nelson, but I don't think he would have shone over 12f even if he'd been 100%.
Probably not a vintage Derby, although they nearly always say that, I can't really see the winner or fourth troubling the likes of Shirocco or Hurricane Run later in the year.
Predictably, Visindar didn't stay, having looked seriosly dangerous 2 or 3 furlongs out.
Hala Bek was unlucky, would have won narrowly had he known what was expected of him (not just talking through my pocket!).
Terrible about Horatoi Nelson, but I don't think he would have shone over 12f even if he'd been 100%.
Probably not a vintage Derby, although they nearly always say that, I can't really see the winner or fourth troubling the likes of Shirocco or Hurricane Run later in the year.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Sir Percy won despite things going against him today. He was bumped and in a bad position for large parts of the race. On a flat track he`s an animal for me who could hit the 130 heights. But, having run in the Guineas and the Derby i agree, he`s not one i`d back against Shirocco or HR.
Look slike to appropriate place to post a timed analysis of Percy versus Motivator.
All of the races that were run today had corresponding events uunder the same conditions last year. Curiously, the ground was given as Good to Firm all round last year, and according to the RP, it was Good - Good to Firm in places today. I say curiously because every race run today, was run faster than it was in 2005 (the 12F, 0 - 100, was the nearest with just 0.07 seconds splitting the 2 runings). I've also calculated todays adjusted variance with the appropriate pars to be riding fast by 3.32 seconds, which is consistant with Firm.
Anyway, leaving that quibble aside, there is a total of 3.40 seconds seperating the fastest and slowest races run today to standard, as opposed to 3.27 last year. A difference of 0.13 is insignificant and to some extent the large discrepancies cancel each other out. The average unadjusted time run today was 0.39 slow and 1.41 slow last year (the like for like nature of the race comparisons removes the need to adjust for class pars). Sir Percy was clocked as running 0.77 fast, and so adjusts to +1.16, where as Motivator was clocked as running 0.31 fast and thus adjusts to +1.72; a difference of 0.56 seconds (about 3.25L's)
Personally I don't like spreads of times this big (3.40 and 3.27 respectively) it hints at a corrupted sample and I normally seek to remove those which are causing the discrepancies to grow beyond 2 seconds. This usually involves slow races, but can of course involve a particularly fast one too. On todays card the 6F listed race for 2yo's was significantly slower than the others, and with this removed the adjusted average drops to 0.04 slow, with a spread of 1.51 seconds now covering the fastest and slowest. There are at least 2 races in 2005 (and probably 3) that warrant similar treatment (those that were run 2 seconds or more behind standard). With these omitted the average is now 0.63 slow with a spread of 1.84 seconds between the fastest and slowest.
All of which means that Sir Percy has now run an adjusted time of +0.81 fast, and his benchmarker, Motivator has run +0.94 fast. (the omission of the 3rd race on the 2005 sample penalises Motivator if anything, with it included, Motivator would go 0.27 secs quicker still).
With this race omitted though, the upshot is that Motivator has run 0.13 (about 3 quarters of a length) faster than Sir Percy, (or 2.5L's with the 0-100, 6F race included)
Now it would be wrong to say that Sir Percy won't win again (aka, Kris Kin and Motivator) as these things are always relative to the opposition, and the programme that gets mapped out for him Despite all the dramas though, I'm bound to conclude this renewal was weak, and that Sir Percy isn't exactly on the pantheon of greats (quite the opposite, he's very modest). None of which takes anything away from him of course. He's won, he's in the history books, and he's worth more money tonight than he was this morning etc well done to all concerned, and those who backed him
All of the races that were run today had corresponding events uunder the same conditions last year. Curiously, the ground was given as Good to Firm all round last year, and according to the RP, it was Good - Good to Firm in places today. I say curiously because every race run today, was run faster than it was in 2005 (the 12F, 0 - 100, was the nearest with just 0.07 seconds splitting the 2 runings). I've also calculated todays adjusted variance with the appropriate pars to be riding fast by 3.32 seconds, which is consistant with Firm.
Anyway, leaving that quibble aside, there is a total of 3.40 seconds seperating the fastest and slowest races run today to standard, as opposed to 3.27 last year. A difference of 0.13 is insignificant and to some extent the large discrepancies cancel each other out. The average unadjusted time run today was 0.39 slow and 1.41 slow last year (the like for like nature of the race comparisons removes the need to adjust for class pars). Sir Percy was clocked as running 0.77 fast, and so adjusts to +1.16, where as Motivator was clocked as running 0.31 fast and thus adjusts to +1.72; a difference of 0.56 seconds (about 3.25L's)
Personally I don't like spreads of times this big (3.40 and 3.27 respectively) it hints at a corrupted sample and I normally seek to remove those which are causing the discrepancies to grow beyond 2 seconds. This usually involves slow races, but can of course involve a particularly fast one too. On todays card the 6F listed race for 2yo's was significantly slower than the others, and with this removed the adjusted average drops to 0.04 slow, with a spread of 1.51 seconds now covering the fastest and slowest. There are at least 2 races in 2005 (and probably 3) that warrant similar treatment (those that were run 2 seconds or more behind standard). With these omitted the average is now 0.63 slow with a spread of 1.84 seconds between the fastest and slowest.
All of which means that Sir Percy has now run an adjusted time of +0.81 fast, and his benchmarker, Motivator has run +0.94 fast. (the omission of the 3rd race on the 2005 sample penalises Motivator if anything, with it included, Motivator would go 0.27 secs quicker still).
With this race omitted though, the upshot is that Motivator has run 0.13 (about 3 quarters of a length) faster than Sir Percy, (or 2.5L's with the 0-100, 6F race included)
Now it would be wrong to say that Sir Percy won't win again (aka, Kris Kin and Motivator) as these things are always relative to the opposition, and the programme that gets mapped out for him Despite all the dramas though, I'm bound to conclude this renewal was weak, and that Sir Percy isn't exactly on the pantheon of greats (quite the opposite, he's very modest). None of which takes anything away from him of course. He's won, he's in the history books, and he's worth more money tonight than he was this morning etc well done to all concerned, and those who backed him
I just watched the video on Racing Post and the finish was great. The first four finishers all within a length of each. It definitely makes for an exciting race -- and lots of screaming in the last furlong when the horse you have a win ticket on is one of the four!
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Yeah Jinny, Noddie ran a blinder for his debut - you wouldn't have thought it either. Was raced out the back and was only beaten about 33 lengths, short enough to land the 50/1 about him being beaten less than 50 lengths - now that was a value bet 
Now you two leave off little Nodster - the RP said that no-one was embarrassed by his run, and he didn't get in anyone's way (and they meant that in a polite sense, not sarcastically). He even managed to get up to midfield and actually run on before running out of puff. WHAT an occasion on which to launch your racing life! And I know the ride's been a thrill for Robert Miles and his family, too. Considering the amount of jockeys who never get a single ride in the race, along with the memory of having ridden with the best jockeys and acquitted himself and his horse without disgrace, is something to be proud of.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,010
He can't. He'll have a notional rating of 75-80 - 33 lengths at 12f equates to about 50lbs and the winner will be in the low-mid 120s - but this was Noddie's first run. He'll need to run and lose twice more, or win once, to get an official rating and that will largely depend on the level of race connections map out for him.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Don't think an's post was meant to be taken seriously.
Not sure if I'm just seeing things but if you watch poor HN as he goes around Tattenham Corner, it looks to me as if he pecks slightly - almost as if if got a warning shot from that off fore. His action isn't particularly fluent from that point on.
I agree that Jenny Hall is an oustanding vet but disagree entirely that because it's the Derby, it should make any difference to acknowledging doubts about running a horse. After all, the only person who would have a really good idea is the person riding the horse - most riders will tell you that you just 'know' when you're horse is wrong, even when those on the ground can't see anything.
I know AOB is a very empathetic horseman, a wonder with all things equine, etc etc but he went down in my estimation a lot yesterday, just as Kieran went up. Full credit to him for having the courage to flag his horse as unsound before such a race. AOB ad Co can thank their lucky stars that, horrible though it is to have lost HN, thatKieran wasn't also horrifically injured - or any of the other horses running behind them..
I agree that Jenny Hall is an oustanding vet but disagree entirely that because it's the Derby, it should make any difference to acknowledging doubts about running a horse. After all, the only person who would have a really good idea is the person riding the horse - most riders will tell you that you just 'know' when you're horse is wrong, even when those on the ground can't see anything.
I know AOB is a very empathetic horseman, a wonder with all things equine, etc etc but he went down in my estimation a lot yesterday, just as Kieran went up. Full credit to him for having the courage to flag his horse as unsound before such a race. AOB ad Co can thank their lucky stars that, horrible though it is to have lost HN, thatKieran wasn't also horrifically injured - or any of the other horses running behind them..
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
NODDIES WAY C, 2003 DP = 3-1-4-4-4 (16) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.31
That's Noddies Way's dosage, the key figure I'm led to believe is the 0.60 which would indicate 1 3/4m+ as being his optimum distance (I think).
That's Noddies Way's dosage, the key figure I'm led to believe is the 0.60 which would indicate 1 3/4m+ as being his optimum distance (I think).
Oops - forgot about the entente discordiale there, Ven! 
Jules, you're right, I noticed that too and thought perhaps I shouldn't make too much of it, but he does make a little peck. I think you're right too about Kieren. Vets make mistakes and under the pressure to get off the second favourite in our most-watched Flat race, there may have been the thought that it was more important to see the horse looking sound than not. If K felt he was 'a little stiff' then for a raring fit young horse, that's a bit odd in itself, isn't it? He'd had time walking around beforehand to loosen up, so you wouldn't expect him to be anything but ready to race, and goodness knows K's ridden him enough times to know how he should have felt.
Jules, you're right, I noticed that too and thought perhaps I shouldn't make too much of it, but he does make a little peck. I think you're right too about Kieren. Vets make mistakes and under the pressure to get off the second favourite in our most-watched Flat race, there may have been the thought that it was more important to see the horse looking sound than not. If K felt he was 'a little stiff' then for a raring fit young horse, that's a bit odd in itself, isn't it? He'd had time walking around beforehand to loosen up, so you wouldn't expect him to be anything but ready to race, and goodness knows K's ridden him enough times to know how he should have felt.
Songsheet you have no idea what the conversation was between Aidan and Kieran was.....your just guessing that Kieran was not happy to ride the horse. For a horse that was supposidly lame he travelled supremely well for a long way in the race.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Could it be given the whole debacle before the race that Kieran was unhappy at the horse he chose to ride? From what I've been told it was a close call between all four.
Aiden - it doesn't take a genius or a lip-reader to see that Kieren was very unhappy with that colt - I don't make a habit of criticising AOB so for once stop continually defending them with the 'they can do no wrong' stance.
We all saw the examination they gave the colt beforehand - I am not knocking the vets or even AOB from that aspect - what I said was that if your jockey, minutes before such an important race - raised such doubts about his ride then caution would have been a more sensible course of action (especially when you consider they had three other colts in the race, so it was hardly the greatest disaster in the world to have withdrawn him).
As to your comments about the colt travelling 'supremely well' - I disagree! He travels OK for 8f and quite clearly pecks going around T C. His action thereafter is anything but fluent.
Bearing in mind that TV coverage for this race is huge and racing is facing a tough enough time as it is with its image, then this type of incident doesn't do it any favours. I am quite sure no one is more gutted than AOB and he would give anything to have turned the clock back - he's a man who anyone can see genuinely adores his horses but from where I'm standing, the economic giant that is Coolmore and the extreme pressures that generates may be leading to some questionable decisions and yesterday's was most definitely one of them.
We all saw the examination they gave the colt beforehand - I am not knocking the vets or even AOB from that aspect - what I said was that if your jockey, minutes before such an important race - raised such doubts about his ride then caution would have been a more sensible course of action (especially when you consider they had three other colts in the race, so it was hardly the greatest disaster in the world to have withdrawn him).
As to your comments about the colt travelling 'supremely well' - I disagree! He travels OK for 8f and quite clearly pecks going around T C. His action thereafter is anything but fluent.
Bearing in mind that TV coverage for this race is huge and racing is facing a tough enough time as it is with its image, then this type of incident doesn't do it any favours. I am quite sure no one is more gutted than AOB and he would give anything to have turned the clock back - he's a man who anyone can see genuinely adores his horses but from where I'm standing, the economic giant that is Coolmore and the extreme pressures that generates may be leading to some questionable decisions and yesterday's was most definitely one of them.