Epsom Derby

Betfair's come back after being down most of the morning; Horatio Nelson is now marginally shorter than Septimus.
 
Same here, but if they`ve finally got him fit and he`s sparkled at work he has the best overall form of the Ballydoyle contingent. Fallon has just never seem that keen to me though.
 
I am very surprised he has made his choice so early and even more surprised with the choice that was made. I assume there is very little chance of soft ground given that decision.

I was quite strong on Septimus, so I should really change my loyalties to Horatio given that, presumeably AOB has slightly more idea than myself as to which is better. I'm not sure that I will though. I do think you are more likely to be on a winner coupling AOB's main pair than backing Visindar.
 
Appears to me that Fallon's relying on Horatio like alot of the Ballydoyle colts this year improving on their seasonal debut.

Either way I'm happy to be Linda's Lad at 20/1.
 
Erm - you're all assuming that Fallon was allowed to make the choice!!! He doesn't always get that luxury you know...
 
I thought he'd go for Septimus to be honest, he looks a much more solid proposition even though it'd be disappointing were he good enough to win. Horatio just doesnt look as though he's trained on to me and there was very little promise that could be gleaned from his Guineas run. I know people will point out that O'Brien's have been coming on massively for their first runs, but I don't think its in keeping with the style of the operation to send unfit horses for British classics, like people are suggesting they did with HN in the Guineas. I was warming to Dylan Thomas recently but the fact Fallon didnt even ride him on his reappearance is off putting to say the least.
 
Originally posted by jairducochetfan@May 30 2006, 11:35 AM
Horatio just doesnt look as though he's trained on to me
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One run whilst not fully fit in a Group 1 is very little evidence to base that on.
 
He who pays the piper?..... Surely if it were a close call the political thing to do would be exactly what Fallon appears to have done? I think the markets over reacted ( as is the case in racing), it's not as if they'll be short of decent jocks for the other mounts. (Dettori on Septimus and McEvoy on Dylan Thomas :D ) I'd be more concerned if it were a reaction to a poor piece of work (though that might emerge in the fullness of time?).

For someone who admitted recently that he'd never even sat on the horse, I reckon its a blind leap of faith from Fallon. Septimus's winning Dante performance (8L's) sits very comfortably in the Pantheon of previous Dante/ Derby winners, and to jump off on the strength of what must have been his first real exposure to the horse based on his first piece of work seems illogical. Unless he was persuaded by the 8th in the Guineas? the admission of a slightly interupted prep?, the apparent diminutive appearance of the horse? or men with money and influence?
 
I was warming to Dylan Thomas recently but the fact Fallon didnt even ride him on his reappearance is off putting to say the least.
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Fallon was needed in France for the French Guineas on that day.
 
Fallon rode Horatio Nelson this morning, hence the decision.

Its not as if we were not told he would need his Guineas run before the race. A week before the race itself O'Brien openly admitted he would come on for the run considerably and just watch the race again. A very very tender ride from the usually strong MJ Kinane.

Personally if HN was going to come right he was always going to be Fallons mount in my opinion from the bunch he had selected. Surely a massive positive given all the doubts about him that he still choose him over a 8 lenght Dante winner?
 
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