JSS: Atlantic Waves 78.5+
Which means he's roughly in a group with Hala Bek (81+) Linda's Lad (80) and Championship Point (75.5+).
As I've said before I've seriously struggled with Visindar's St Cloud run, but am happy to hijack Gareths rating which I think was about 95 (consistent with what I had him at for Longchamp 94.75). My own St Cloud rating would have him about 9L's clear of this Derby field (106)!!! and the only horse that's run an all age Gp1 par. If I dismiss this as an error based on the sample that I struggled to rate it from, then the fastest time I've got is a 97 from Dylan Thomas, with Septimus putting up the next 2 fastest times (95 and 96). Based on this I've got him booked to finish about between 19L's behind the winner I'm afraid, and a good deal more if my assessment of Visindar does indeed turn out to be accurate.
![Confused :confused: :confused:](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f615.png)
I reckon between 9th and 11th
It's not all bad though as his saving grace would appear to be the + he earned the Fielden, (which might be evidenced by Olympian Odyssey in the Guineas?) and I suspect that this is the straw which his supporters will need to cling to?. If OO's Guineas run can be replicated by Atlantic Waves by way of the same improvement then suddenly he's in play. :blink: Only Visindar, Dylan Thomas, Septimus, and Sir Percy would be on schedule to finish ahead of him (as OO earned 92.5 for his 2K run). But this type of performance projection (which has him in 5th) requires a blind leap of faith and other horses have also been noted as likely to improve, and are coming from a higher base (Nelson's on 90.5 for instance). It's probably why I regard him as a bit of a wild card to be honest.
I remember looking at his sections for the Fielden (I don't subscribe to Turftrax and Newmarket only leave them up for a week) and seem to recall that he lacked the all important turn of foot, and had to crank the pace up and hold on, (Liz McColgan style!!!) I suspect he might get taken off his feet thus? My guess is that he might have to go from a long way out and hope to repell challengers, but I'm sure the stable are better race tacticans than I.
There is a kind of logic however in saying if OO can improve from 78 to 92.5, why can't Atlantic Waves? but I think the balance of likelihoods weighs against him doing that quite so symmetrically. Even if he does, I can't see him running any higher than 5th (which I suspect the stable would settle for?).