Epsom Derby

Euro,
Like I said I don't think Ballydoyle would run a horse that is patently unfit in a British classic, so as the horse ran poorly, Im taking a view that it hasnt trained on. I think its dangerous to assume he's going to come on in leaps and bounds for the run, like the other O'Brien horses have.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@May 30 2006, 11:45 AM
. Unless he was persuaded by the 8th in the Guineas? the admission of a slightly interupted prep?, the apparent diminutive appearance of the horse? or men with money and influence?
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You`ve got to differentiate between running a horse who needs the race in a common or garden trial and running him in a Group 1. In the former he`s up against animals in the same boat, the latter he faces hard, fit rivals brought to a peak. I`ve said this before, but imagine High Chaparral in the `02 Guineas against the Rock and HW needing the race.....he`d have been blown away just like HN was.
 
Originally posted by jairducochetfan@May 30 2006, 11:54 AM
Euro,
Like I said I don't think Ballydoyle would run a horse that is patently unfit in a British classic, so as the horse ran poorly, Im taking a view that it hasnt trained on. I think its dangerous to assume he's going to come on in leaps and bounds for the run, like the other O'Brien horses have.
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O`Brien has said he wasn`t fit, he said it in the week leading up to the race. He obviously felt GW would win and he was using the race to improve HN`s fitness. He`s also said the latter is very hard to get fit. Stands to reason a run over a mile against fit rivals would bring him on a ton.
 
But surely their are far more suitable preps for the Derby than the Guineas? I think they ran HN as they thought there was a possibility that he could actually win the thing. It would have been much easier for them to give him a couple more weeks and run him in the Derrinstown if you ask me. He hasnt grown much by all accounts and though he's some price if he recaptures his 2yo form, on the evidence I've seen and heard this season, I think its hard to assume he will do.
 
Originally posted by jairducochetfan
But surely their are far more suitable preps for the Derby than the Guineas? I think they ran HN as they thought there was a possibility that he could actually win the thing. It would have been much easier for them to give him a couple more weeks and run him in the Derrinstown if you ask me. He hasnt grown much by all accounts and though he's some price if he recaptures his 2yo form, on the evidence I've seen and heard this season, I think its hard to assume he will do.
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I totally agree, personally i was in a postition where i`d backed him for both so i didn`t know what to think at the time. I dont think AOB thought he`d win though, for me i think he thought GW was pretty much home and hosed unless his temperament became an issue.

As for the race as it stands, as ever the Betfair brigade have overreacted and Septimus is well worth a bet now, i`m large on HN and Linda`s Lad so i`m gonna cover on him. Ultimately he`s trading at about the same price as Sir Percy. That`s just daft.
 
I might do the same with Septimus, Ive been dead against him all year but his price at the moment is value. I cant make my mind up with this race, with a speculative punt on Snoqualmie Boy before the Dante being my sole ante post bet at this stage.

Best of luck Euro, at least one of us is bound to collect! :lol:
 
I dont know, all this talk about AOB and the favourite isn`t getting a look in.

Septimus price on Betfair is up and down like a whore`s knickers :ph34r:
 
I dont like to see people throw their money away.If you have enough bets you may actually back the winner,but it's not looking good so far.Keep trying. :D
 
I'm not as sure that HN's so called superior form puts him that far ahead any longer and am increassingly questioning this argument "he's got the best form" etc

His 2yo form is invoked as evidence (which in itself is a blind leap of faith and largely all you've got to go on if looking for evidence)

The win in the Gp2 Futurity looks nothing special. I think Silent Times came 3rd, and has got no nearer than 22L's to any winner on his 2 subsequent races as a 3yo. Reekab came 6 of 8 in the Derrinstown. No others have run.

- No wins, No places, 3 runs

The Gp1 Grand Criterium looks increasingly poor now. Mauralakarna (thrid) is the only horse to have subsequently won and even that was a 4 runner listed affair at Maision Laffitte (came 5th in the French 2K, but had bad luck in running, might have placed otherwise?). Of the others, Opera Cape came 3rd in the Dewhurst and last in the 2K. Fenice finished fifth and fourth, before going onto finish 10th of 11 behind Aussie Rules, and last of 6 in a listed race at Saint Cloud most recently. Spirito Del Vinto hasn't placed either, finishing 5th of 7 in a listed race at Longchamp most recently. Finally Wild Sunday finished 3rd of 4 on his only start since the Longchamp race.

- 1 win (lower grade) 1 placed (Dewhurst) 9 unplaced

The Gp1 Dewhurst has some encouragement as you'd expect but its littered with more disappointing performances than good ones. Of those that lined up as 3yo's for the 2K (Sir Percy apart) it reads like a graveyard.

Close to You 10th of 14
Red Clubs 12 of 14
Opera Cape last of 14
HN's 8th doesn't look so bad all of a sudden!
Primary did win the Gp3 Sandown trial, but went on to come last in the Chester Vase. Palace Episode repeated the feat in the Dante in a field of 6, and Humungous could only manage 11th of 13 in the Lingfield Spring Cup.

HN's won a Gp 1 (1 subsequent winner) and a Gp2 (no subsequent winners) come 2nd in a Gp1 (2 subsequent winners - & 5 who finished in the last 3) as a 2yo, and 8th in a Gp1 as a 3yo.

Septimus has won a Gp2, and been touched off by 1L when meeting interference in a Gp3 Crucially as a 3yo. Won a Gp2 and come 3rd in a Gp1 in a quagmire as a 2yo

Now I think you'd probably still rate HN's form as the stronger, but I don't think it can be taken on trust any longer, and I reckon other horses are putting up form lines which if HN doesn't respond to soon will see them go past him. Based on the 2yo v's 3yo argument you might even suggest they already have?
 
We`ll see. In the Grand Criterium he quickened twice, and i dont think the horses behind Opera Cape make any difference to the form. The latter was a good two year old who Godolphin have fcuked up.

If Fallon rides Papal Bull it is a very bad sign for Coolmore`s chances in this, even if the horse is another Kris Kin he wont win the Derby. I believe the hierachy want him to ride HN because that is the horse they`d rather win the Derby with, based purely on a very sexy pedigree.
 
I'm sure we've discussed these stats somewhere, but can't find the thread. They are based on a theory that Mordin put foward in the Weekender a few weeks back about prep distances etc. I think it was generally agreed that figures backed him up, even if his rationale was questionable? I don't think the actual stats were posted? but can't find the thread to check this out? so assuming that they weren't I'll just repeat them in the light of Horatio Nelson

Between 1967 and 1977, 8 of the 11 Derby winners preped over a mile or less as 3yo's. In fact all of them reached the first 4 in 'a Guineas'.

Between 1978 and 1992 only 5 of the 15 Epsom winners ran at a mile or less

Since 1992, no Derby winner has run over a mile or less in its previous 3yo starts. No fewer than 53 have tried, (some of them well fancied) and all failed.


I'll get back to you JSS, with my Atlantic Waves rating but as I'm sure you've worked out, I tend to deal predominantly in the time that a horse stops the clock, and build only a limited amount of latitude into them for personal judgement. (Just as well, as my judgement on these issues ain't great!!!). I seem to remember rating him at 9F at Newmarket, and giving him a + for both a slowly run race, and likelihood of improving for further. It's the line through Olympian Odyssey I think that's muddied the picture for me since, and I think he represents something of a 'joker' in the pack along with Hala Bek and possibly Championship Point, as horses we haven't seen the best of, but I'd still be surprised if he made the frame.
 
Jss, you wouldn't be worried then that a lot of Mark Johnston's horses are running badly? Quite a few are emptying very quickly at the moment.
 
I am slightly concerned.He had a non-runner today due to coughing.Hopefully Atlantic Waves will make the lineup and be 100% fit to do himself justice on the day. :)

I must confess to being quietly confident about the horses chances.He will be far more effective over 12 furlongs.He will also improve quite alot for his run in the Fielden and the ground should suit him better at Epsom.
I'm letting my heart rule my head to an extent because he hasn't achieved a great deal on the racecourse thus far but i do believe he has great potential and improvement in him.
 
At this point I'd advise getting as much of the 12s each-way on Papal Bull as you can, whether Fallon rides him or not.
 
I have it between PAPAL BULL and LINDA'S LAD but i hope that the brilliance of VISINDAR will pull him through.

A friend of mine swears that LOMITAS is capable of producing a world beater so, i shall be rooting for CHAMPIONSHIP POINT as well.

It's a no bet race for me, as are most high class Flat Races.
 
That's a good question Gareth and I maintain that it's totally unfair to compare Oath to the likes of Kris Kin etc.

Oath had one subsequent outing when he fractured a bone coming out of the stalls, many other Derby winners have plenty of outings and still not come up with the goods.
 
JSS: Atlantic Waves 78.5+

Which means he's roughly in a group with Hala Bek (81+) Linda's Lad (80) and Championship Point (75.5+).

As I've said before I've seriously struggled with Visindar's St Cloud run, but am happy to hijack Gareths rating which I think was about 95 (consistent with what I had him at for Longchamp 94.75). My own St Cloud rating would have him about 9L's clear of this Derby field (106)!!! and the only horse that's run an all age Gp1 par. If I dismiss this as an error based on the sample that I struggled to rate it from, then the fastest time I've got is a 97 from Dylan Thomas, with Septimus putting up the next 2 fastest times (95 and 96). Based on this I've got him booked to finish about between 19L's behind the winner I'm afraid, and a good deal more if my assessment of Visindar does indeed turn out to be accurate. :confused: I reckon between 9th and 11th

It's not all bad though as his saving grace would appear to be the + he earned the Fielden, (which might be evidenced by Olympian Odyssey in the Guineas?) and I suspect that this is the straw which his supporters will need to cling to?. If OO's Guineas run can be replicated by Atlantic Waves by way of the same improvement then suddenly he's in play. :blink: Only Visindar, Dylan Thomas, Septimus, and Sir Percy would be on schedule to finish ahead of him (as OO earned 92.5 for his 2K run). But this type of performance projection (which has him in 5th) requires a blind leap of faith and other horses have also been noted as likely to improve, and are coming from a higher base (Nelson's on 90.5 for instance). It's probably why I regard him as a bit of a wild card to be honest.

I remember looking at his sections for the Fielden (I don't subscribe to Turftrax and Newmarket only leave them up for a week) and seem to recall that he lacked the all important turn of foot, and had to crank the pace up and hold on, (Liz McColgan style!!!) I suspect he might get taken off his feet thus? My guess is that he might have to go from a long way out and hope to repell challengers, but I'm sure the stable are better race tacticans than I. :D

There is a kind of logic however in saying if OO can improve from 78 to 92.5, why can't Atlantic Waves? but I think the balance of likelihoods weighs against him doing that quite so symmetrically. Even if he does, I can't see him running any higher than 5th (which I suspect the stable would settle for?).
 
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