Epsom Derby

Betfair Prices after today`s action:

Visindar - 21/10
Septimus - 11/2
Horatio Nelson - 10/1
Sir Percy - 14/1
Dylan Thomas - 16/1
Championship Point - 18/1
Hala Bek - 20/1
Linda`s Lad - 22/1
24s Bar


Huge overreaction to the Dante, i actually think Linda`s Lad and Septimus have similar chances so the 6s i`ve got on the former being placed is great value. HN @ 10s is an insult.
 
If Linda's Lad hadn't had the 7lb penalty and had won by that many lengths worth instead, what price would he be?
 
If both line up I'd agree with you Euro, their prices should be much closer together.

Having backed both Septimus and Visindar for the Derby at much bigger odds than now I'm leaving it until the day to go in again.

Linda's Lad is one of a small handful that I'm currently considering to take on the favourite with and I may even back Septimus again when/if he lines up. It's not certain that either will line up yet though. Fabre likes to surprise and Septimus has plenty of competition for his Derby place from the same combination of owners. Smith would love to see his own colours carried in a Derby, so I reckon there's a better than even money chance that Septimus will run.
 
I'd have thought Septimus, Dylan Thomas and Horatio Nelson are guaranteed to run. O'Brien had four in it last year, after all.
 
For what it's worth they are the three I would have thought are in pole position too Gareth. If Papal Bull (Stoute) were to be re-entered, as Fallon seems to think he should, he'd be the other one to look at from the Magnier, Smith, Tabor syndicate.
 
Euronymous: how do you become a 'non-racing fan'? :confused: Is that like someone who loves cooking, but never cooks, or someone who adores films, but never watches any? I think we should be told...
 
Exactly, people who watch Grandstand and moan when the racing comes on. They`re sports fans but hate racing. Philistines.
 
Mercifully, Grandstand is to be axed very soon.

Racing has always been treated as a "filler" on this programme, and the coverage of the newly-acquired Derby by the BBC being no exception to the rule.

Anybody noticed any appetisers/build-up to the event, any attempt to familiarise viewers with the leading fancies, either on television or radio?
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 15 2006, 07:09 PM
Any of my non racing friends would not have a clue that "the Derby" as ye call it is run at Epsom....not a clue.
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I have recently conducted a straw poll with a sample of one. The conversation went thus:

Simmo: If I was to say that I was watching the Derby this weekend, what would that signify to you.
Pollee: Horses? Lot of them? Running quite fast?
Simmo: OK. Would a location spring to mind?
Pollee: No. I'd probably think of the Queen Mother quite fondly though.
Simmo: I'm not looking for a specific place, a country will do fine.
Pollee: It's in England (in an "I thought everyone knew that" voice).
Simmo: Any other associations jumping to mind?
Pollee: It's not at Ascot, that's where they have the Royal thingy. But they do get dressed up for it, don't they? I'm definitely picturing the Queen Mother with her head tilted slightly to one side and her hands crossed over. And men in top hats.
Simmo: They do wear toppers at the Derby but the Queen Mother has been dead for several years.
Pollee: Did you bugger her to death you dirty bastard?

So there you have it. Non-racing people are aware that The Derby is run is England. They do not confuse it with the Kentucky Derby or any other Derby, probably because they are unaware of the existence of any other Derby.
 
Ven - you wouldn't like to come to my rescue over on 'Honey, I Shrunk the Derby', would you? :lol:

Nice analysis, simmo! :lol: :lol: That'll do for me!
 
Percy punters handed a lifeline


by Rodney Masters and David Carr (May 24)
PUNTERS clutching Vodafone Derby ante-post vouchers with Sir Percy’s name on them were given a lifeline on Tuesday after Marcus Tregoning reported he was “fairly optimistic” that the 2,000 Guineas runner-up will, after all, make the Epsom line-up on Saturday week.

The colt, made favourite for the Derby after his effort behind George Washington, did his first sharp canter on Tuesday morning on the gallops at Kingwood Stables in Lambourn since finishing sore at Newmarket, where he pulled a muscle in his back.

Tregoning said: “Sir Percy moved very well this morning and everything appeared in good order afterwards. At this stage I’d estimate he’d be 60-40 to run; I’d be fairly optimistic. He’ll work on either Friday or Saturday, and then the position will be that much clearer.”

He added: “He’ll run in the Derby only if everything is absolutely spot-on, but the signs are good and both our vet Nicola Jones and physiotherapist Sarah Pilkington have done an excellent job with him since the Guineas. Given expert treatment, and the required time, these things do come right.”

The trainer believes the previously unbeaten colt may have sustained the damage coming out of the stalls at Newmarket. “It’s impossible to be sure of these things, but it could have happened there with a slip. When Martin Dwyer asked him to quicken coming out of the dip he becameunbalanced and tended to hang; that’s most unlike him. He was sore and stiff behind afterwards, and examination revealed a pulled muscle in his back.”

Dwyer is hopeful that, should Sir Percy make the Derby line-up, his setback might not compromise hischances.

The jockey told At The Races: "Some people say you can't win a Derby on the back of an interrupted preparation but it depends on the individual.

"He is race fit, he has had a run and even if he hadn't had the setback he wouldn't have done much anyway."

Despite emerging from the Guineas sore, Dwyer still believes his mount - who only lost his unbeaten tag at Newmarket - would take all the beating at Epsom.

He added: "I was very impressed with Dylan Thomas and Septimus has come out of the woodwork as well. Obviously he has improved since last year.

"It's going to be a great race with Visindar in there as well but I'm hoping my fellow runs because if he is spot-on he will take all the beating."

On the Epsom betting front Septimus was clipped to 4-1 (from 9-2) by both Coral and Skybet, with the last-named firm going 11-2 from (6-1) about Riyalma for the Vodafone Oaks.

Michael Kinane is not certain to renew his association with the Aga Khan’s Riyalma, who won the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket, in Friday week’s race with Christophe Soumillon being the owner's retained rider.

The second favourite’s trainer Sir Michael Stoute could also be represented by Musidora winner Short Skirt in the Classic and the Aga Khan’s racing manager Pat Downes said on Tuesday: “Riding plans for Riyalma are unknown at the moment - I suspect it will not be sorted out until next week. Christophe Soumillon will ride her if Michael Kinane chooses one of the others.”
 
There will be long lines of one day punters outside every betting shop in the UK, most of them will be punting the Dettori horse, a few will want to know which horse L.Piggott is on and even fewer will want to be on Willie Carson.

They will all be informed that the Derby is no longer on a Wednsday and told to, either have an Anti-Post bet (Betting shop finds it impossible to explain what an "Anti Post" bet is) OR report back on the following Saturday.

Everyone reports back on Saturday, as advised, only to find that there is an even longer line of footy punters trying to wager GBP 1.00 on Stanley Matthews being the first Goal Scorer for England playing against Jamaica.

In the interim, the French horse (the one that i wanted to stay in France) wins the Derby in a canter, which results in a flurry of spending by GW and that Irish bloke and multiple entries in the first three Novice Hurdles of the 2006/07 NH Season.

The French horse is found to be very lame on Sunday and is retired to Stud.
 
I have a lifeline!!!!

(And if you want to come over here and do a sample with me on the concourse of any London station, Galileo, I'll wager a fair sum that over 66% of people questioned will know that the Derby is run at Epsom.)
 
<-----Pricewise guy doesn`t fancy Horatio

Originally posted by Tom Segal
Quite why Horatio Nelson is still trading at about 5/1 is beyond me, if he wins i`ll give up the game. For one thing he`s tiny, second he`s far from certain to stay, and third he showed little promise in the Guineas. I suppose the bookies have liabilities on him, but if i were them i`d want some more because no-one in their right mind could fancy him
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Strong stuff.
 
It was from his column in the Weekender, so not a tipping piece in itself. But from what he said, he`ll be opposing Visindar and Septimus come the big day, he wasn`t overly impressed with the latter`s win at York and actually thinks Best Alibi may turn the tables. I think he`ll tip Sir Percy if he runs.
 
Im pretty sure the ground will be on the easy side come the day, the more i think about it, the more i like Linda's Lad if the ground comes up soft.

If Visindar turns up, runs his race, he will definitley be the one to beat.
 
Originally posted by Will@May 24 2006, 10:02 PM
Im pretty sure the ground will be on the easy side come the day, the more i think about it, the more i like Linda's Lad if the ground comes up soft.

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Agreed, i`m on him large to place and i`ve backed it on the win market as well now.

Does anyone know when Fallon will decide on his mount? Pretty sure he`ll choose Septimus as he said in his column in The Sportsman last saturday that he hasn`t even sat on Horatio Nelson so far this year. The latter`s price will drift to a very juicy level if he does decide to ride the Dante winner.
 
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