Epsom Derby

Originally posted by Irish Stamp@May 30 2006, 04:31 PM
That's a good question Gareth and I maintain that it's totally unfair to compare Oath to the likes of Kris Kin etc.

Oath had one subsequent outing when he fractured a bone coming out of the stalls, many other Derby winners have plenty of outings and still not come up with the goods.
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The point i was (badly) trying to make was that Oath, Kris kin and Shaamit like Papal Bull were horses who no-one had even considered for the race a month or so before Derby day. And of course it`s no coincidence that all those renewals were poor ones.
 
Points taken particularly about the poor renewals. Would say that alot of other winners are from really high profile yards such as O'Brien or where leading 2yos so are naturally going to be in the spotlight.

I know Cecil and Stoute are high profile but they tend to play down their chances particularly in regard to Kris Kin and Oath - both of whom won what many consider a "lesser" Derby trial yet when O'Brien won it with his supposed number one contender last year its profile suddenly increased.

The Dee Stakes has a good record of late at producing Derby winners, better than many of the more high profile trials anyway.
 
Papal Bull is not my first choice, but i think he has excellent prospects of being placed.

With the others on my short list I've got a sense that they'll either win or come nowhere.

Papal Bull is the one I can't knock out of the frame however I look at it.

I'm guessing Fallon will decide on Septimus or Horatio Nelson.
 
Would have big worries about Papal Bull on a track like Epsom particularly if the ground quickens up.

Plus Fallon rides Epsom better than any other jockey around in my opinion....big plus for whatever his chosen mount might be.
 
Why is the Derrinstown getting no respect? It's winners have gone 1113X4 over the last six years (the X being Yeats, who would have gone to Epsom a warm favourite) and yet Dylan Thomas is a massive price (32 on Betfair).

Not that I'm complaining about that last bit.
 
I've had a little on Championship Point, I think he's good value for a place and there are no stamina worries. Visindar is far too short for my liking and whilst I can't discount him winning he has yet to show he deserves to be that price. I do feel the winner will be Coolmore owned, although the big question is which one, although I don't think anyone has seriously considered it being Mountain. Horatio is currently 5.2/1 on Betfair with Septimus 7.2/1 and Papal Bull 11.5/1.
 
Tried to back Linda's Lad and Papal Bull yesterday, was a dispute over the prices so bet was voided, have backed PB today, will add LL if the price available becomes suitable.
 
Stamina is the big worry; O'Brien himself mentioned this on Sunday, pointing out he's a half-brother to Queen's Logic. Thing is, winning over 10f suggests to me - and please, feel free to disabuse me of this notion - that he's already outstayed his pedigree.
 
Without boring you to death.

Dylan Thomas (Danehill/Diesis) 4-5-16-1-2 = 28, 1.55, +0.29

Three stamina points and a good concentration of mid Classic points (16) give him a sporting chance of getting 12 furlongs. However there are others who are much better equipped to get the trip. He could get 12f but looks more likely to be happier with 10f to me.
 
VISINDAR (GB) ch. C, 2003 DP = 10-6-11-3-0 (30) DI = 2.53

I know it's not everything but to put it into perspective the Derby favourite's profile looks like that. I'm no expert on these matters but 11 on the classic distance looks like he doesn't have as great a chance as some of staying and I think 2.53 DI would indicate a 10-11f horse.
 
Originally posted by Irish Stamp@May 30 2006, 08:58 PM
VISINDAR (GB) ch. C, 2003 DP = 10-6-11-3-0 (30) DI = 2.53

I know it's not everything but to put it into perspective the Derby favourite's profile looks like that. I'm no expert on these matters but 11 on the classic distance looks like he doesn't have as great a chance as some of staying and I think 2.53 DI would indicate a 10-11f horse.
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I'm hoping you're right. The DI figure certainly gives him a speed influence, but I think it might be the CD figure that should offer clues about his optimun trip, and with 3 solid points balanced against 10 brilliant and 6 intermediate, that distribution looks to be below 12F. It's the one thing I'm banking on to defeat Visindar, and presumedly a bit of cut underfoot will only exacerbate any stamina doubts?. I notice he isn't 'dominant classicity' too which I think I remember reading has been a feature of about 50% of winners (recent)?, yet is only a trait of about 18% of horses in training.

I think Dylan Thomas falls just about within the range (HN and Septimus look better equipped with preference for the latter I seem to recall?).

I dare say Steve or someone can put me right if I'm mistaken in any of this?
 
Visorhill (by Danehill) and Visorama (by Linamix) the best produce of Visor before Visindar were 8f and 12f horses respectively. This seems to suggest that the dam defers to the sire in terms of stamina requirements. Of course it isn`t that simple when it comes to Danehill, who always seems to defer to the dam. Indeed Visorhill`s full sister Visanilla would probably have stayed 12f if she`s attempted the trip.

I think Visindar will get his stamina requirement from Sinndar, but the latter`s average progeny`s winning distance is under 10f, possibly down to Grand Lodge but more likely because of the speed based mares he`s covered (the latter just an assumption)
 
It is rare for a horse to manage to win the Derby with a DI above 2. It tends ideally to be around 1. Benny The Dip was the only horse in more than a decade to manage it (and Silver Patriarch was unlucky that year).

I didn't think Hawk Wing would do it and I would advise to back against Visindar for the same reason, especially at current odds. Youmzain is also by Sinndar, but has a stouter dam side than Visindar. Not that I would recommend that one.
 
I personally think Fallon is absolutely potty, choosing a horse which has achieved nothing as a 3 year old over a horse which won a trial which has produced the last 2 derby winners.

Never mind, it'll give us a nice price on Septimus!
 
I backed Septimus last night but I consider Fallon being on HN (is it official yet?) to be a major worry. It is as if the O'Brien team consider Septimus will not be good enough and are chancing their arm on the other.

I have been told Kinane was hoping Fallon would be on Septimus so he could ride HN.

What do these small men with whips know anyway. I'd love the ground to stay good to soft - any possibility?
 
Kinane is likely to have the choice of Stoute's pair. So it's likely he'll be on Papal Bull. Murtagh is likely to ride Septimus if Fallon goes for Horatio.
 
Might Robert Winston be on Papal Bull? Rode Mountain High for connections at Newmarket on Guineas weekend.
 
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