Festival Preview Nights

Quick Jack was my Dark Horse for the TTF competition on here.

He hasn't faced a hurdle in a race for over a year, but has entries in the County, the Coral Cup, and the Conditionals race. His current OR is 125, and he can make an absolute mockery of that, based on his proximity to Gilgamboa and Flaxen Flare in his last hurdles outing. Currently available at around 18's for the two 2-mile hurdles and 14's for the 2m5f. I've backed him in all three to varying degrees, but will start loading towards the County based on TM's comments above.

He has been totally laid-out for a smash-em-up job by Tony Martin, and will make Xenophon look like a chimps-tea-party.

Tally-ho!!!!!
 
Must admit I'm concerned regards the vibes from the Vautour camp.

Windsor Park will be carrying my dough. Just which ruddy race.

The Martin robbery looks ripe alright.
 
Grasshopper said:
His current OR is 125, I've backed him in all three to varying degrees, but will start loading towards the County based on TM's comments above.
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Would he get into the County off OR 125 ? I would have thought You'd need to be OR 133 or so to have a chance at getting in at the bottom.
 
Not sure if 125 is his Irish or UK rating, so possibly a chance that the OHR here will give him a higher mark. There's still a chance for them to get a run into him too, I suppose - though it's tight enough. Strange TM would be talking him up, when there's a danger that he won't get a run.

That's an awful lot of ifs, buts and maybes. I shall need to draw my horns in, regarding the further spraying of bullets.
 
Probably wouldn't get in that either! :lol:

Have to hope it's a piddly-diddly race in Ireland where he hacks up by 12L. Combination of increased rating and a penalty is probably what I'm after.
 
Grasshopper said:
Not sure if 125 is his Irish or UK rating, so possibly a chance that the OHR here will give him a higher mark.
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Saw a tweet from BHA Handicapper Grame Smith last night saying:

"Finishing touches go on the Cheltenham h'caps in the morning. Almost all the Brits have marks but lots to do on the Irish. Fingers crossed!"

So we should know their marks sooner rather than later. Anyone know where we could get this information at the earliest opportunity?
 
Baltimore Rock won the Imperial Cup off 125 last season with Gassin Golf second off 121.
Agree though... sounds like a penalty wouldn't do any harm.
 
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Double Handful said:
Saw a tweet from BHA Handicapper Grame Smith last night saying:

"Finishing touches go on the Cheltenham h'caps in the morning. Almost all the Brits have marks but lots to do on the Irish. Fingers crossed!"

So we should know their marks sooner rather than later. Anyone know where we could get this information at the earliest opportunity?
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Good question, and not sure to be honest.
 
He was last given a rating of 113 before he won by a couple of lengths atCheltenham in November 2013. His only run over hurdles since was a 3rd in the Boylesports a year ago, running off an Irish mark of 119. So it's asking a lot to expect the UK handicapper to give him the min 133-135 he'd need to get in (and even then it would be a close call).

Don't want to p155 on your parade Grassy but the weights are announced in two days time and he doesn't have an entry between now and then and a penalty will not be enough on its own.

Pity, as I agree he'd have a great chance.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Not sure if 125 is his Irish or UK rating, so possibly a chance that the OHR here will give him a higher mark. There's still a chance for them to get a run into him too, I suppose - though it's tight enough. Strange TM would be talking him up, when there's a danger that he won't get a run.

That's an awful lot of ifs, buts and maybes. I shall need to draw my horns in, regarding the further spraying of bullets.
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125 is his Irish mark. Possibly a few pounds higher in UK but lowest OR last year was 133
 
I suppose if he can get a rating of 128 then a 7lb penalty would put him right in the reckoning at the bottom of the weights.

If he does get up to that mark then the County is the only race IMHO as for a horse who was 3rd in a Ces on the flat he would have suspect stamina over a stiff 2.5. Whereas a fast run 2m would be right up his street.
 
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Another thing about Tony Martin.... In my experience, he rarely, if ever, mentions the REAL plot horse! I actually spent a bit of time over the weekend looking for an AJ Martin special... and Savello is one I have my eye on!

He won over fences in the grand annual at the festival last year. However, he is rated 20lbs lower over hurdles :ninja:

Had a nice warm up in that competitive Boylesports hurdle that Katie T won, finishing a cosy 4th. Form of this race has been very well franked since. While he holds 6 entries for the festival (3 Chases & 3 Hurdles ) I think he could just be the plot horse for a h'cap hurdle. And I think the County Hurdle 18/1 will be the one.
 
Looking at his form more closely.
QJ was 2nd in a 24K flat race at Listowel in September 2013, ran the very next day and won his first handicap hurdle at the same track.
It's probably about 3/1 against right now he runs again before the festival, but he's run before in quick succession, so you never ever know.
 
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Double Handful said:
Another thing about Tony Martin.... In my experience, he rarely, if ever, mentions the REAL plot horse! I actually spent a bit of time over the weekend looking for an AJ Martin special... and Savello is one I have my eye on!

He won over fences in the grand annual at the festival last year. However, he is rated 20lbs lower over hurdles :ninja:

Had a nice warm up in that competitive Boylesports hurdle that Katie T won, finishing a cosy 4th. Form of this race has been very well franked since. While he holds 6 entries for the festival (3 Chases & 3 Hurdles ) I think he could just be the plot horse for a h'cap hurdle. And I think the County Hurdle 18/1 will be the one.
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Quote from his previous trainer (John Berry) in November 2011 "He's a stone better horse on good ground..."

His form last spring would seriously back that up and I put him forward on the QMCC thread as a handicapper who could run into a place in the big one but that would require a leap of faith, so if he was to run in a County off c. bottom weight you would have to sit up and take notice considering he was beaten only 5 or so lengths behind Sizing Europe in the Punchestown Champion Chase on goodish ground, to follow up his Grand Annual win off 11st 5 last March.
 
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wilsonl said:
If he does get up to that mark then the County is the only race IMHO as for a horse who was 3rd in a Ces on the flat he would have suspect stamina over a stiff 2.5. Whereas a fast run 2m would be right up his street.
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Can't have that, Lee.
I'd say it's unusual for any horse placed in a Ces not to stay a NH 3m eventually, and whatever he's done at 2m over jumps, you'd expect him to improve on, over further.
 
I know what you're saying reet and I would normally agree 100%.

But it's a combination of the way he traveled and then didn't find in the Ces, that he's been campaigned exclusively around 2 miles in his admittedly short hurdles career and (while I'm no bloodstock expert) the fact that his Sire, Dam and maternal Grandsire were all out and out milers.

He did seem to stay on strongly over 16.5 on his sole Cheltenham run to date but the County will be a very different affair and his asset is the way he travels in a strongly run race, with that touch of stamina so the Friday 2 miler could be perfect for him - if he gets in of course.
 
They are like a bad addiction these previews. I can't help reading them but there's so much rubbish spouted. I now only tend to use them for pointers about which race a certain horse might go for.

They tend to be just full of absolutes. Why can't we have panels just saying I fancy this or I don't like that. Instead we get 'he's bombproof', 'he's a steering job', 'she can't be beat'. Do these people not know what sport they are involved in?

I also can't stand reading comments from trainers at these things. They are the polar opposite of the quotes above, simply because they'll just talk about their own yard. If they've got a runner, no matter if its a 100/1 no hoper, all you'll get is some nonsense about why everything will go right this time and he has a great chance.

In the past they have influenced my decisions but often I've been left kicking myself for not trusting my own judgement.
 
To be fair, if I hadn't been sitting waiting on news of Quick Jack for 4 months, I would have dismissed the lot like I usually do.

They're always a great read for getting you into character for the Festival, but I wouldn't be betting anything on the back of what's said at any of them.

"Bad addictions" is a great description too.
 
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These previews just whet the appetite. The online ones kill another day and that means we are closer to lift off. I got my ticket for the one at the Centaur only because it's free to members and Ladbrokes usually do some good offers.
 
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