Fighting Fifth

Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Dec 3 2007, 05:55 PM

Has anybody considered the fact that Harchibald may stay a bit further now that he is rising 9 years of age?

I don't think so. In my opinion, he'll always be best at a bare 2m with the emphasis on speed.
 
I for one am absolutely gob smacked about these new claims that Katchit is exposed, overrated, cant win this, wont win that.

After all he was beaten by Al Elie and Harchibald, who with no discredit are not genuine Champion Hurdle contenders but appeal in lesser races.
I would actually back Katchit to beat both of them at Cheltenham in March and to be honest did no one notice in the final 100yds Katchit was actually running on well and in fact was finishing to good effect.

A stiff track will play right into Katchit's hands and I'm not sure Al Elie will be ideally suited with the Champion Hurdle whilst Harchibald doesn't find for pressure. Well he hasn't in the past and I'm not convinced he will again.

If people want to write off Katchit because they think the English cant train and the Irish are so much better, then to be honest most of you need to remove your heads from 1ft up your arse.

How many people hyped up Beef Or Salmon and if he wasn't overrated then nothing is.

I don't disagree with Luke about Sizing Europe. There is normally an outsider who runs above expectations and he would appeal to me as that horse. I don't 100% think Katchit will win the Champion but I would far from write him off and to be honest if any of you actually knew how hard he was trained at 2 and 3 then the horse deserves the utmost credit for what he has actually achieved thus far. Kalanisi also improved with age and I'm confident that Katchit will improve again by March.

Last years Champion Hurdle was probably the worse Champion Hurdle I have seen and to be honest all the so called good horses flopped. I actually think the window is open for Katchit and you cant judge a horse on one run in December at Newcastle. How many times was Intersky Falcon impressive in this race and then flop in major style at Cheltenham.

I would love to see the comments on this thread in March if Katchit wins the Champion Hurdle.
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Dec 3 2007, 08:23 PM
How many people hyped up Beef Or Salmon and if he wasn't overrated then nothing is.
You were going so well Chris.
 
All that hype for Beef Or Salmon and only 10 open Grade 1s to count for it.

That's 10

Ten.

X.

Dix.

1010.

A.

(Kauto + Denman + Exotic Dancer) * 1.66
 
Firstly 2/1 is no value.

I said Beef Or Salmon was hyped up to win a Gold Cup and failed. All the Grade 1's Beef Or Salmon won were in 4 and 5 runner crap races in bottomless ground in some Irish ###### hole.

He came , he tried and he failed. Best Mate laughed at him, so has Kauto Star and so will Denman.

Yet you still get the ever faithfuls trying to make a case for him this year.

Thats a huge joke that is, if Beef Or Salmon ever wins a Cheltenham Gold Cup I will bare my arse in Tesco's.
 
Also your making out Beef Or Salmon 10 grade 1's having been around 5 or 6 years.

Kauto has had one real strong season and doesn't run in 4 or 5 runner minority races.

Denman is a 2nd season chaser and Exotic Dancer , well I for one dont think he has a hope of winning a Gold Cup.

For me Denman is the biggest cert in history, people say he needs soft ground, thats bollox. Had it been Snowy Morning winning like that the Irish would have been on about it for weeks.

To me it looks like people want these English horses to fail and for me that performance from Denman was one of the most impressive chasing performances I have ever seen. Regardless what he beat, it was the way he beat them.
 
I said Beef Or Salmon was hyped up to win a Gold Cup and failed.

No you didn't. You made no mention of the Gold Cup.

All the Grade 1's Beef Or Salmon won were in 4 and 5 runner crap races in bottomless ground in some Irish ###### hole.

Bzzzzt! Wrong. Average number of runners in Beefy's 10 (that's ten, btw) Grade 1s: 6.3

I don't think you honestly believe Leopardstown is a shithole, so I'll let you off on that.

As for bottomless ground - you'd never get anyone going crazy about any other horse putting up a big performance in seriously testing ground, would you?

Oh, wait...

He came , he tried and he failed. Best Mate laughed at him, so has Kauto Star and so will Denman.

You were the one crabbing Kauto the other week Chris. Now apparently the Gold Cup means something? Make up your mind!

Yet you still get the ever faithfuls trying to make a case for him this year. Thats a huge joke that is

Anyone making a case for him probably is joking. Seems you missed it.

BTW the beardy man knows how many open Grade 1s Beefy has won:

focuser001.jpg
 
Chris, good passionate post.

but on reading these posts, you said

"I said Beef Or Salmon was hyped up to win a Gold Cup and failed."

what you actually said was

"How many people hyped up Beef Or Salmon and if he wasn't overrated then nothing is. "
 
I would also say that given Katchit and Harchibald are roughly the same odds to win the champion hurdle at the moment. Both are avialable at between 6/1 and 8/1. Al Eile isnt mentioned on the oddschecker page, but 25s would sound about right. I would suggest that 2/1 would be good value. Unless of course, Katchit is overrated by the bookies.
 
Also your making out Beef Or Salmon 10 grade 1's having been around 5 or 6 years.

Yes. I thought the longevity of horse's careers was what the gloriously romantic National Hunt game was all about?

Kauto has had one real strong season and doesn't run in 4 or 5 runner minority races.

He's great. I love him. He'll win more than 10 if he stays fit, no problem. You'd be amazed what some people were saying about him before Haydock though.

Denman is a 2nd season chaser and Exotic Dancer , well I for one dont think he has a hope of winning a Gold Cup.

I'm sure they'll have many Grade 1s between them in the future, if they stay fit and healthy.

For me Denman is the biggest cert in history, people say he needs soft ground, thats bollox. Had it been Snowy Morning winning like that the Irish would have been on about it for weeks.

What's your preoccupation with the Irish, Chris? It's puzzling. I'm Irish, and I was arguing with you the other week about how your crabbing of Kauto and Exotic Dancer was completely unfair. A couple of others were too, and at least one of them was also Irish. Doesn't exactly fit your theory, does it?

To me it looks like people want these English horses to fail.

Like you did Kauto at Haydock?
 
Chris,

Let's be honest, most people will tip toe around your posts in a bid to be sensitive and in a bid to welcome you to the forum

Under this flawed ideology of democracy we must allow you to spout forth your views.

Some Irish ********? Yes, Chris, that is a phrase you must never be allowed forget.

Your points are barely intelligible and to call them childlike are an insult to children. What's worse is that occasionally you direct us to websites or sites where you have some kind of platform for your cretinous views. We must all sit and tolerate them.

Katchit v Harchibald in March?

I'll give you 500 sterling on Katchit at 2/1.....now there's a bet...

non runner/no bet...and both participants must finish
 
Katchit has NO chance of winning a champion hurdle

The fighting fifth is a complete graveyard for CH winners..and thats just for those good enough to win it...getting beat in it...= forget the CH.

Katchit wasn't just beaten here...the winner buried him..and we all know how good the winner is...CH 2nd or 3rd at best...with little heart for a battle.
 
The key with Harchibald is how he travels and especially how he flies the hurdles, he would not profit of it in a longer distance race.

Katchit has no chance in my book in the Champion Hdl for the same reason Clopf does not have a chance, they lack the class to win a Champion Hdl.
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Dec 3 2007, 08:23 PM
If people want to write off Katchit because they think the English cant train and the Irish are so much better, then to be honest most of you need to remove your heads from 1ft up your arse.
Chris, no offence, but that's bollocks..

I'm quite sure the reason people (myself included) are writing off Katchit as a Champion Hurdle prospect is because he was comprehensively beaten on Saturday and I for one don't see him making anywhere near the amount of improvement he would need to make to win, or go close, in a Champion Hurdle..

Nothing to do with Nationalism at all..

The fact is Irleand has a complete and utter stranglehood on the 2m hurdling division at the minute. That is not Nationalism, it is merely a fact.

Harsh btw Bobbyjo..
 
Im not Irish, but Im with the irish guys here.....Im loving the argument though, about time something heated is happening here!!
 
Some normally shrewd judges are writing off a 4yo hurdler as exposed. That surprises me slightly.

I haven't seen anything to make me want to part with any hard-earned on a Champion Hurdle bid either, but what makes so many so certain he has peaked?
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Dec 4 2007, 12:07 AM
His size, the fact he`s beaten frig all and memories of Detroit City and Triumph Hurdle winners in general.
His size - I don't know enough about Horse's development to comment on this, small horse = less scope is the rule of thumb we all use. But I am inclined to give credence to Shadow's claim that it doesn't mean small horses don't improve.

Beaten frig all - like I said, I have seen nothing to make me want to back him either. My contention was the ease with which some wanted to write off a 4yo as exposed.

Memories of Detroit City - I think this is actually counting against him. Whether you rated DC as top class or not is irrelevant, his performaces as a young horse were ahead of that usually expected by his animals of his age, no? In his absence are we over keen to promote Katchit in his place ahead of time?

Triumph Hurdle winners in general - Trends in horse racing are about as useful as saying that one football team can't beat another because they have a poor record against them. I love it when someone rules out half the field because it doesn't fit their "profile" which is usually just a bending of coincidence to fit a pattern that doen't really exist.


I will repeat that I don't think he will win the CH either, if he is even good enough to get there? But kneejerk write-offs of "exposed" hurdlers at that age seems a bit premature to me.
 
Originally posted by betsmate@Dec 4 2007, 12:16 AM



Triumph Hurdle winners in general - Trends in horse racing are about as useful as saying that one football team can't beat another because they have a poor record against them. I love it when someone rules out half the field because it doesn't fit their "profile" which is usually just a bending of coincidence to fit a pattern that doen't really exist.


I
Normally i`d agree but i suspect there is something to the Triumph Hurdle one. Maybe running in hard hurdle races as 4yo`s bottoms them out, i don`t know. But it`s not like DC or Katchit were ever massive prices for the Champion Hurdle, odds that would make it worth a speculative punt that they`d buck the trend.
 
Katchit is still second favourite for the Champion hurdle in many books. This is after the fighting fifth. I dont think harchibald or katchit will win the champion hurdle, but I think if this 4yo was going to buck the trend, he would need to be beating the likes of Al Eile. (not to mention Harchibald). If the front two hadnt bothered to show up at the weekend, I would think that Katchit would be about a 3/1 shot for the CH now.

I wouldnt rule out 5yo's out of hand. Afsoun went very close last year. its just every year, the previous March's Triumph winner is different from those who went before. Its not about being 5, its about having the form to back up the claims.

He is still 7/1 for the CH with most of the bookmakers. I wouldnt think that represents any sort of value on what he has achieved so far. If he wins the Bula, things might change. How he was 5/1 for the CH and Afsoun was available at 40/1 a week ago was completely wrong.
 
Betsmate, your interpretation of an unexposed 4 year old and mine are totally different. In my opinion - and I could be wrong - those 4 year olds that are forward enough run in the Triumph etc..like Katchit...but they have little scope for further improvement. The 4 year old hurdler who improved most in recent years- having been sparingly tried in that level - was Harchibald. Katchit is like a poker player who has laid his hand on the table. Nothing else left to see.
 
Originally posted by Bobbyjo@Dec 3 2007, 10:32 PM
Chris,

Let's be honest, most people will tip toe around your posts in a bid to be sensitive and in a bid to welcome you to the forum

But you are a moron....an absolute idiot who under this flawed ideology of democracy we must allow spout forth your views rather than consigning you to the gallows where you belong.

Some Irish ********? Yes, Chris, that is a phrase you must never be allowed forget.

Your points are barely intelligible and to call them childlike are an insult to children. What's worse is that occasionally you direct us to websites or sites where you have some kind of platform for your cretinous views. We must all sit and tolerate them.

Katchit v Harchibald in March?

I'll give you 500 sterling on Katchit at 2/1.....now there's a bet...

non runner/no bet...and both participants must finish
Bobby I couldn't give a rats arse what other people think about me, its a forum its all about a debate its not about who has the most friends, whose in the highest circles and all that rubbish which means nothing.

As for directing to sites, As i stated previously because I use images in reports you need to upload on file and without the facility on the forum to upload a file it makes it impossible but redirect to a blank page !!!!

Non runner no bet and both to finish, absolute bollox, clearly shows your worried about Harchibald not staying sound long enough or not getting round. If you want an ante post match bet, ante post rules apply. Its who obtains the best position. If you fail to turn up then you've lost.

Bobbyjo I for one couldn't give a damn what you think about me or what anyone off the forum thinks about me, and trying to insult me won't work, trust me on that.

I phrased my comments directed at the Irish as it seems whenever there is something half decent out of England it is ridiculed and deemed not good enough. After all someone did of course put up a Champion Hurdle field without a single English runner in it, that to me , well imagine if that was put in the post, it wouldn't get past the editor.
 
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