Fighting Fifth
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There was undoubtably a lot of glee and some sneering after Katchit's defeat (see another thread) dressed up as "humour". But that shouldnt be confused with honest opinions from others.
I tool 10/1 about Katchit for CH a while ago and still happy enough with that...but i wont be adding to it.
I see no reason at all why he shouldnt improve and am still not convinced the opposition is all that strong in the context of the race itself
Talking of Afsoun, sint he supposed to be going jumping soon...or are they now loking at the CH?
An strange statement to make when Afsoun has been mentioned right throughout this thread. Maybe he doesnt count because hes...
The triumph is a different race now. It probably sed to bottom horses when it was a huge field run at breakneck pace.
Its seriously clutching at straws using Afsoun as an example of a horse that disproves the 4 year old hoodoo. He was still beaten in the Champion and was put in his placed on numerous occasions before then. Le Coudray ran a cracker in the Stayers Hurdle as a 5 year old…..that doesn’t take away from the fact it takes an exceptional horse to win the Stayers at such an age and such young horses can generally be passed over.
Afsoun has since come out and ran a fine race behind Hardy Eustace….arguably a career best. No surprise considering the horse is now nearly six?
As for Katchit it….I again ask everyone…do you really think there is much progress likely in a horse that has raced 26 times and he is only 5?
Afsoun has since come out and ran a fine race behind Hardy Eustace….arguably a career best. No surprise considering the horse is now nearly six?
As for Katchit it….I again ask everyone…do you really think there is much progress likely in a horse that has raced 26 times and he is only 5?
Horses that run as Juveniles do progress. But its rarely as a 5yo. HLL won a Champion after winning the supreme at 4. I think, but it was after a break. In fact Spectroscope beat Well Chief, who hardly disgraced himself at 5, before being a superstar aged 6. Golden Cross was third in that Triumph and was an unlucky loser in the Stayers, but at 6 years of age. It could be argued that highly tried 4yo's in their second season dont progress. Those too weak to do themselves justice at 4, maybe strengthen more and have more scope to progress.
archie
Senior Jockey
If you mean the following season, you could make a case that it's Strangely Brown who won in France in the June following his run behind Penzance. Al Eile is the correct answer for the next calendar year.
I find the self satisfied quasi Irish nationalism on this thread truly reprehensible and shameful. I am going to flagellate myself with my sock of dried shamrocks as a general forum penanze. How dare they!
Anyway, as my bumper bonanza thread has already proved, I am an expert in evaluating young horses. Katchit has shot his bolt. He will not win another G1 before he is eight and the golden generation of Irish hurdlers retire.
The last hurdler of that size to improve inordinately was Monksfield, but he was trained in Ire...
Oh Forget it.
Anyway, as my bumper bonanza thread has already proved, I am an expert in evaluating young horses. Katchit has shot his bolt. He will not win another G1 before he is eight and the golden generation of Irish hurdlers retire.
The last hurdler of that size to improve inordinately was Monksfield, but he was trained in Ire...
Oh Forget it.
A trainer friend with years of experience in NH was talking to me about this a couple of months back. He is adamant that horses can come back at 6 or 7 and be top class again if they are given an easy campaign at 5 after being put to the sword at 4 to win and place in the top novice events like the Triumph. But they need at least a year and often two, to get over it.
Interestingly King has said since Penzance came back in this year that he's moving better than he's ever seen him and seems in really fantastic nick. He's due to run at Sandown I think, this weekend, I'm really interested to see if Penzance can confirm this theory!
I will answer in order.
1, yes long term servants is a good thing for any sport and Beef Or Salmon has done well at what he does, it doesn't make him great in my view however and despite his winning of lowly contested Grade 1's I do consider him a horse that has always been talked up to be better than he actually is.
2, Agree, I too like Kauto. I was one of many who thought he had gone before Haydock and was proved wrong. I'm still not confident he will beat Denman but he certainly is as good as he was last season.
3, I think Denman and Kauto will also win more Grade 1's, however I do think Denman will end up much more successful.
4, got nothing against the Irish independently Gareth I just feel the general mood of certain Irish members is to rate their horses above anyone else's. Like many do with O' Brien and if something finishes close to them then O' Brien's has run poorly rather than the other horse has run well. I still keep my stance on Exotic and Kauto and I don't think they would have figured in the 1st three in the Gold Cups in the early to mid nineties. That said Kauto was impressive at Haydock. I personally think Denman has the potential to be the best chaser for at least the last ten years.
5, Please find any post where I said I hope Kauto falls, I have never said this and I love horses and wouldn't wish that upon any horse. His errant jumping ways have never concerned me. My worry for him at Haydock was the way he travelled at Haydock, despite losing £500 laying him I was quite pleased to see a good battle and I don't dislike Kauto, I just don't think he will beat Denman in the Gold Cup and after the way he ran at Aintree on his reappearance I felt he was a good lay at Haydock. Please check your facts in future, as I never said I hoped Kauto would fall and it quite pisses me off when people do wish horses to fall.
I don't think Katchit is overrated, far from it. I personally feel he is underrated.
At 13/2 he rates a cracking each way bet, that means a place dividend of over 6/4. With that he could finish 3rd to both the said horses and still rate a good bet for a place.
I don't think 2/1is particular good value considering the person who is offering the bet is adamant this horse isn't even good enough to get close to the,
Stop the tape 100yds out, Katchit ain't in the picture, at the line he is 2L or so behind them. Katchit was running on and loves a battle. I personally feel with another furlong last Saturday he would have beat the pair. However that is based on both those horses launching their challenges at the same time.
I hope Harchibald comes to Cheltenham to take on Katchit in January as I feel Katchit will beat him back on a course he suits.
I don't think 2/1 to beat two horses is value. On the basis of 2/1 Katchit in a match with Harchibald , that would make the later named around 4/9 in the match. How many would be queuing up to back Harchibald to beat Katchit at 4/9. I wouldn't and would be happy to accommodate at that price.
I personally wouldn't be surprised if Harchibald didn't make it to Cheltenham, I hope he does because i would like Katchit to win fair and square without people always saying he wouldn't have beat this and that.
After all that is just my opinion.
Chris
I feel he beat Kicking King in races that Suited him more. War Of Attrition in my opinion wasn't at his best and as for Best Mate, the later named had a better ratio over the years.
Sorry thought it said falls, my apologies. Of course if you lay a horse you don't want it to win, isn't that why you lay them, your hardly gonna cheer it on are you.
In that response, why do you hope Katchit FAILS??
Harbinger
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You called the races "lowly contested", but he was beating Gold Cup winners and placed horses. In the 2005 Lexus, he led home the first three past the post in the Gold Cup 3 months later. How much more highly-contested could you want a staying chase to be?
You want to have it both ways - crab him because he never did it in a Gold Cup in conditions that didn't suit him, and crab him when he did do it because conditions didn't suit the other horses.
I don't want Katchit to fail as such, I just don't think he'll be good enough. I thought Detroit City was the real deal last year (despite my nationality!) but that all went horribly wrong.
I'm not disputing Beef Or Salmon when things went his way was a very talented chaser, but I feel he was best suited to small fields and testing conditions.
I just think to be an all round star you need to prove it in all types of races and in all conditions.
Something I feel Denman will do.
Out of interest who do you think will win the Champion Hurdle.
Last season I backed Afsoun and Hardy Eustace each way as I thought they were good value.
I still rate Hardy highly and feel both him and Katchit will go close at Cheltenham.
If bobby wanted to offer the bet at my terms i stated i would happily take it but in terms of the 2/1 katchit to beat harchi and Al Eile, surely for me to lose the bet, both Harchibald and Al Eile would have to beat Katchit and not just one of them ???
I just think to be an all round star you need to prove it in all types of races and in all conditions.
Something I feel Denman will do.
Out of interest who do you think will win the Champion Hurdle.
Last season I backed Afsoun and Hardy Eustace each way as I thought they were good value.
I still rate Hardy highly and feel both him and Katchit will go close at Cheltenham.
If bobby wanted to offer the bet at my terms i stated i would happily take it but in terms of the 2/1 katchit to beat harchi and Al Eile, surely for me to lose the bet, both Harchibald and Al Eile would have to beat Katchit and not just one of them ???
The main reason that Beefy ran against small fields in Ireland was a reluctance to travel by English trainers and owners. When Hen brought BM here it was publicised as though it was like some Antartic expedition.
Thankfully B or S connections were game enough to challenge when they knew that absolutely 10000% of variables were not in their favour. His reputation has suffered because of it. Maybe they should only have run him 2 or 3 times a year and he'd still be the best since Arkle.
Thankfully B or S connections were game enough to challenge when they knew that absolutely 10000% of variables were not in their favour. His reputation has suffered because of it. Maybe they should only have run him 2 or 3 times a year and he'd still be the best since Arkle.
Sorry Chris I could understand your post. You seem to suggest that 2/1 in a match bet isnt good value, even though katchit should be shorter than harchibald in the betting (suggesting that Evens would be a good price about Katchit). You say Harchibald would be desperate value at 4/9 in a match. But that is by the by.
Beef or Salmon for all he couldn't act around Cheltenham and we never did see the best of him after that fall, he won 10 grade 1s, was 2nd in five and 3rd in three. There have a handful of better staying chasers around now, but its not that bad a record all things considered.
Beef or Salmon for all he couldn't act around Cheltenham and we never did see the best of him after that fall, he won 10 grade 1s, was 2nd in five and 3rd in three. There have a handful of better staying chasers around now, but its not that bad a record all things considered.
EC1
On a break
Maybe they should only have run him 2 or 3 times a year and he'd still be the best since Arkle
:xmassnowlaugh:
please confirm this is a joke An :xmassanta:
:xmassnowlaugh:
please confirm this is a joke An :xmassanta:
The bet still stands Chris? Are you taking it or not?
Surely the point to make about 4 and 5 year old hurdlers etc etc is similar to a comparison between the kind of horses that win two year old races that don't train on to three. I mean, the best juvenile is not necessarily the best older horses. Clearly, Afsoun is a later developer than the likes of Katchit. Similarly, Al Eile is more of an old fashioned late developing National Hunt horse rather than a speed merchant off the flat?
Surely the point to make about 4 and 5 year old hurdlers etc etc is similar to a comparison between the kind of horses that win two year old races that don't train on to three. I mean, the best juvenile is not necessarily the best older horses. Clearly, Afsoun is a later developer than the likes of Katchit. Similarly, Al Eile is more of an old fashioned late developing National Hunt horse rather than a speed merchant off the flat?
Arazi
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1990 - 1st Norton's Coin 2nd Toby Tobias 3rd Desert Orchid
1991 - 1st Garrison Savannah 2nd The Fellow 3rd Desert Orchid
1992 - 1st Cool Ground 2nd The Fellow 3rd Docklands Express
1993 - 1st Jodami 2nd Rushing Wild 3rd Royal Athlete
1994 - 1st The Fellow 2nd Jodami 3rd Young Hustler
1995 - 1st Master Oats 2nd Dubicilla 3rd Miinnehoma
I'm surprised you think that Kauto Star & Exotic Dancer couldn't have made the first three in these Gold Cups. Desert Orchid, Jodami, The Fellow, Master Oats & possibly Rushing Wild are the only horses listed there who I think could be any sort of a threat to Kauto Star & Exotic Dancer around Cheltenham. In my opinion Desert Orchid is the only one that would be a match for Kauto Star and even then around Cheltenham Dessie was never at his best.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Has nobody ever heard of Monksfield (that comment is also valid regarding the size question)?