Flat Season 2012 - An Attempt To Profit Maximize

  • Thread starter Thread starter Bruce_Savage
  • Start date Start date
I'm so happy, thank you for the comments.

Let the the flat season begin gentlemen!

Market Selection Bid
type Bet ID Bet
placed Persistence Odds
req. Stake
(£) Liability
(£) Avg. odds
matched Profit/Loss
(£)
GB / Donc 1st Apr / 17:35 To Be Placed Mujaadel Back 19135096090 01-Apr-12
15:32 C 8.8 25.00 8.8 195.00
GB / Donc 1st Apr / 17:35 To Be Placed Laylas Hero Back 19135096089 01-Apr-12
15:32 C 3.7 25.00 3.7 67.50
GB / Donc 1st Apr / 17:35 7f Hcap Mujaadel Back 19135085607 01-Apr-12
15:32 C 48 16.09 48 756.23
GB / Donc 1st Apr / 17:35 7f Hcap Laylas Hero Back 19134952637 01-Apr-12
15:28 C 12.01 25.00 12.01 (25.00)
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Pity no one understands a word he types. I'm sure I could throw out random selections in races and hit the jackpot too.
 
SlimChance said:
Pity no one understands a word he types. I'm sure I could throw out random selections in races and hit the jackpot too.
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Haven't got the time to write about every horse I fancy, I put up my strongest selection today in Silvery Moon which disappointed.

I gave reasoning into Mujaadel and why he could run a decent run but in truth I wasn't that confident of him being able to win in that fashion.

This isn't a competition, if you think you can throw up random selections and get yourself in good betting positions then good on you!

Your post does sound a little salty to me though.
 
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Funny how you can tap out a full scale reply to me but can't respond to Rory with the same vigure.
 
Week in Review

Ratings

101 Arctic Cosmos
98 The Cheka
98 Primaeval
98 Penitent
97 Sharestan
96 Brae Hill
96 Ishvana
96 Colonel Mak
96 Eternal Heart
94 Glen Moss
94 Croisultan
90 Kingsdesire

Class Improvement

5 Arctic Cosmos
2 The Cheka
2 Primaeval
2 Penitent
4 Sharestan
3 Brae Hill
3 Ishvana
5 Colonel Mak
7 Glen Moss
8 Croisultan
7 Kingsdesire

Distribution

-3 Arctic Cosmos
-5 The Cheka
-13 Primaeval
-3 Penitent
+6 Ishvana
-3 Colonel Mak

Pace Improvement

1.39s (F) Arctic Cosmos
1.56s (F) The Cheka
2.58s (F) Primaeval
1.50s (F) Penitent
0.82s (F) Colonel Mak


Interesting weekend, Arctic Cosmos hit the track running showing he's still a Group 1 animal whilst The Cheka, Primaeval & Penitent all pitched in with Group 2 times.

The James Fanshawe winner Primaeval should be stepped up to a mile at a more testing course given the race dynamics (Positive Speed), this would preferably be Ascot which is significantly related to Kempton and is on average around 1 second slower at each conceivable distance - he will improve 2.58s for a stronger pace. (The Paradise Stakes (April) and The Summer Mile (July) are good 1 Mile targets that he should be competitive in)

David Barron's Colonel Mak recorded a Listed time & should be competitive enough if upped in grade. The race dynamics (Positive Speed) indicate a step up in trip, given his finishing effort this may be ideal & if there is anything floating around at The Curragh over 6-7f soon he might have a squeak but then again if he met the likes of The Cheka over there then you couldn't really fancy him on this weekends evidence - should improve 0.85s for a faster pace but this time should come in handy later on in the season for a Handicap at Doncaster.

The two that really caught my eye were Kingsdesire & Glen Moss, both three year old's should have no problems stepping up in class and I wouldn't argue against them getting a little bit further on both accounts but they set a really good standard at this stage of the year.

Over in Ireland, Ishvana actually finished 2nd but given the weight differential of 17lbs it was hard to afford the rating of 96 to Coolnagree!. The race dynamics interestingly showed (Positive Stamina) which indicates a step down in trip, easier course or easier ground. The Filly is entered in a Listed race at Dundalk later this week over a mile, I'd be cautious unless she's a ridiculous price and then may be worth taking a risk.

 
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220 CORK
The favourite Slade Power is hard to oppose given he could turn into a very decent sprinter after a decent break where he’s turned out early in the season, his Dundalk win was a very good time but he wasn’t the only 2 year old over in Ireland to show class at the back end of the season at Dundalk when arguably the best sprinting performance come from Nero Emperor on the 18th of November recording (91) and looks destined for pattern class.

The 6th horse that day Friday Fever who was beaten 8.25l by the winner was getting 7lbs from most of the field was a pacemaker for Slade Power’s Dundalk win and was a sitting duck but the winner was only able to come clear 1.25l off level weights.

That sort of performance would bring in Feathers And Bows, the field that day were racing early on as many struggled to adapt to the nature of the race as none of them knew how to “sprint” so to speak, but she never went backwards, although finding it hard to quicken turning into the straight the further she went the stronger she ran and despite being beat 5.25l there are no doubts the 6f today will be ideal.

David Wachman’s Filly has effectively been dropped 4lbs for that performance for her new Flat turf mark but Wayne Lordan will be doing 8-4 on her whilst Johnny Murtagh will be doing 9-7 on Slade Emperor which is a massive differential between the two despite through a little line on Friday Fever there could be an upset on the cards.

Let’s not beat around the bush, Feathers And Bows is no superstar but every horse has the opportunity to relish any advantage that goes in their favour and if Slade Power hasn’t progressed another 15-20lbs at home then he could be giving away too much to David Wachman’s filly who sets a very good standard at least.

5/1 is a respectable price.
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245 MUSSELBURGH

Good prize money for the Sprint on offer here which sees Tim Easterby through in two of his star sprinters but the one that you’d have to favour would be Hamish McGonagall, now a 7 year old he’s coming into the prime year of his sprinting whereby he looks ready to tackle pattern company at last. He boasts a good record when fresh but an even stronger record at Musselburgh with 4 wins from 6 attempts and some cracking times to boot with the underfoot conditions likely to prevail as an advantage over stable mate Captain Dunne who loves it fast.

The danger in the race could be Mister Mannanman who went awol last season but still remains a sprinter which a decent race or two in him.
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350 MUSSELBURGH

A lovely 3 year old Handicap so early on in the year with some decent Handicap types on show with many deserving respect using the All Weather campaign to iron out a few quirks and one suspect we might be seeing some consistent names on the circuit for a while.

Marcus Tregoning runs Bronze Angel who could have a fair amount of ability chasing down Grandeur at Brighton and shouldn’t be dismissed. The Roger Varian trained Shabora has already won over a mile and 2 furlongs in February, she’s also contested a finish with Bronze Angel coming out 2nd best.

The race does revolve around Mark Johnson who puts out three decent looking contenders most notable the facile winner last time out at Wolverhampton Switzerland demolishing his rivals by 8 lengths off top weight with the form working out well.

The horse I’m most interested in is Kinloch Castle going back to his defeat by a head at Catterick, the horse has run 0.15s faster than Beckermet in the 2nd last race both carrying 9-3 with the latter improving 15lbs since including a 1l defeat to Yair Hill in a 20 runner field at Newmarket.

The race dynamics for Kinloch Castle that day showed he enjoyed the fast pace with a Positive Speed off 1.49 – this indicates a step up in trip, testing course or testing ground although the figure is very close to zero indicating he’s enjoyed this sort of track which is significantly related to Musselburgh.

He recorded a figure of 86 on perfect good ground, there will be a step up in trip today with flags up one of the indicators and Musselburgh is around 0.76s more testing than Catterick which flags up number two in our proposal.

When running at Lingfield he didn’t look comfortable but knowing he needed a more testing course then the Southwell trip was a shoe in and won easily by 7l and today is going to be no easy race for this young, fast and flashy horses so I’d rather be on something with a profile & ability like Kinloch Castle.
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THE REST OF CORK

A nice Listed sprint to follow the 3 year olds opening race but you couldn’t back anything here with much confidence although I was taken by the chances of Ballmont Mast who was held up by Johnny Murtagh at Dundalk who eye interestingly pulled back his mount quite significantly entering the straight for a few strides and let his field get away from him before unleashing a hands n heels effort where the horse picked up well.

Last year this horse was thrown in with cheekpieces & blinkers to try improve him although it was to no avail being beat by the likes of Timeless Call & Repeater who run today but something doesn’t add up with the ride last time out and the horse has a plum draw and if sent out in front he could really make a bold challenge especially as he’s improved no ends over the winter months.

The 16:00 sees the quick return of the well backed Robin Hood who routed his rivals from the front last time out at Leopardstown but carries the burden of top weight again although I think you can rest assured that the weight in this case won’t matter because the horse is clearly above his rivals here and given his running style there will be nothing to stop him getting into top gear especially as he sees out the trip well.

The 16:40 see’s an interesting Maiden, Tommy Stack runs a horse called Queens Visit which was in fact quite a momentous occasion in Ireland and would take some bottle to name a horse that didn’t have a fair amount of ability after that event.

Call me mad but I do like how Majestic Timeline improved from 1st to 2nd run at Dundalk over the winter, caught behind a good time when 4th to Precious Dream she travelled up really comfortably before running around green as grass in the finish. There wasn’t much in terms of a finishing effort but I think that the trip wasn’t to suit over 6f given the way she travelled and the longer the race can unfold the better for her which might mean another renewed effort over a mile today.

Quite a speculative call but you never know in Horse Racing.
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205 KEMPTON
Another London Mile qualifier to get the mouth watering with excitement, cutting to the chase there does look like something iffy going on with The Tichborne not in a bad way of course but if Roger Teal as a trainer wants to start accumulating more decent horses he needs to start targeting certain races and what better than using your proximity to Kempton as your advantage and start to build some momentum.

He had the winner with Highly Regal in 2010 which come at a surprise but shirked throwing a runner in this race last year indicating he’s not taking these events too lightly but has entered The Tichborne here after 13th of 13th in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton – he must be confident of an improved run.

More about the horse who finished 3rd in The Britannia behind Sagramor at Royal Ascot and as we know Ascot form transfers impeccably well at Kempton as it’s significantly related. His record on the All Weather stands as 2 wins from 4 races but if we count his debut run and recent run out of it then he has a 2-2 record.

Roger has taken it upon himself to book James Doyle for the ride who has been in all the headlines after his ride on Cityscape but in general he’s impressed with his riding ability for a good few years now and is no better man around at the minute to install confidence on a horse who has a good draw and ironically will need a replica ride that James gave Cityscape to win here
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240 KEMPTON

The Snowdrop Fillies Stakes could be going the way of William Haggas in the shape of Sooraah who could be very hard for punters to get away from but looking elsewhere I’ve been taken by the chances of Elshabakiya. Taking the Ascot run literally Clive Brittain might feel confidence about her first time around Kempton, or at least I am anyway! Given the way she finished of her race it was quite taking finding for pressure in a rating of (92)

The race that day showed Negative Stamina to the tune of 9pts indicating those points could be gained for a step up in trip and an easier course or faster ground which she’ll get today with Kempton being 1.02s easier than Ascot also stepping up to a mile with improvement of 0.99s for a faster run race.

The latest run around Wolverhampton was a clear confidence boost for Elshabikiya given her campaign as 3 year old being pitched really high which illustrates Clive’s opinion off her and a Listed win today would add to her stud value.
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Now, not sure what ones to bet & how...

Where's Gigilo when you need him :lol:
 
The horse I’m most interested in is Kinloch Castle going back to his defeat by a head at Catterick, the horse has run 0.15s faster than Beckermet in the 2nd last race both carrying 9-3 with the latter improving 15lbs since including a 1l defeat to Yair Hill in a 20 runner field at Newmarket.

The comparison with Beckermets race would be dubious as the 4 o'clock Div 1 race was run 0.67 faster than Serene Oasis's race and 0.8 faster than Beckermet.
 
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EC1 said:
The horse I’m most interested in is Kinloch Castle going back to his defeat by a head at Catterick, the horse has run 0.15s faster than Beckermet in the 2nd last race both carrying 9-3 with the latter improving 15lbs since including a 1l defeat to Yair Hill in a 20 runner field at Newmarket.

The comparison with Beckermets race would be dubious as the 4 o'clock Div 1 race was run 0.67 faster than Serene Oasis's race and 0.8 faster than Beckermet.
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Paul Hannagan was doing 8-9 on Makbullet that's a 8lbs lighter than both Beckermet & Kinloch Castle.

That 8lbs is about 2.96 lengths over 7f and around 0.50s which is why I've ignored the race especially as you need to be drawn high over 7f at Catterick which Makbullet was (10), Kinloch Castle (4) & Beckermet (6) respectively.

Makbullet has gone on to be a good improver anyway which adds more to the credibility of Kinloch Castle who was having his debut run under Philip Makin whose hardly known for his connections with Mark Johnston.
 
SteveM said:
...you say for information purposes. What information is this giving exactly? What does Negative Speed +14 mean? Why is CHRYSANTHEMUM Class: -4 and COOLNAGREE Class: +10 and what does this mean?
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Bruce, while I wasn't really expecting a reply to this and Rory seems to have come up against a brick wall, I'm astonished that you assert you have already clearly addressed such questions. As far as I can see you have made no attempt whatsoever to do so. What is evident is that this is random drivel, so why persist? As you are not fooling anyone why continue a meaningless masquerade? It must be a waste of your own time and is clogging up the forum with misleading and mal intentioned nonsense. You must have other ways of amusing yourself.
 
Surely the fact you're that bothered by it means you find it of interest SteveM?

Bruce is not inclined to have to answer your queries. Like a lot of folk in the real world he may just be an insular individual, who only cares about himself, and can't be any more arsed to expalin to you than he can to help his neighbour out or say please and thankyou?

I love Rory Delargy to pieces but as hardly an active user of the forum it is somewhat frustrating he only pops in to tell people such as Bruce where to go, is it not? Surely we should have more respect for people who frequent this site and calm down with this cynical stuff?
 
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I can see things getting agitated here with a prolific new opionated poster going head to head with the somewhat tiresome clique
 
Marble said:
I love Rory Delargy to pieces but as hardly an active user of the forum it is somewhat frustrating he only pops in to tell people such as Bruce where to go, is it not?
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Fair point Marb - I remain an avid passive member here, and the quality of debate/banter is always good. I should post more, but find that it's only when riled that I'm moved to do so. I will attempt to remedy that.
 
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