Flat Season 2012 - An Attempt To Profit Maximize

  • Thread starter Thread starter Bruce_Savage
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Simon said:
It says a lot about the fact he's gone off in a huff as soon as someone mentions Aston University. I wonder why that'd annoy him so much... perhaps because he liked being Bruce the middle aged recovering alcoholic.
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Posting personal details about another member is out of order in my opinion, of course if you could link to where he has posted it online for anyone to see (another forum for example) then that would be different.
 
dvds2000 said:
Posting personal details about another member is out of order in my opinion, of course if you could link to where he has posted it online for anyone to see (another forum for example) then that would be different.
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I hardly posted the guy's name and address. 10,000 people go to Aston.
 
Bank 79.2

Ante-post Grand National - Always Waining 3pts win 85.0 & 3pts place 13.5

Golf - Matteo Manassero 3pts win 18.0

Bank 70.2
 
swedish chef said:
Bank 79.2

Ante-post Grand National - Always Waining 3pts win 85.0 & 3pts place 13.5


Bank 70.2
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Bollox :lol: All year the plan had been The Grand National - I still love the horse but I'll be having words with Mr Bowen if our paths cross. Great horse, great jumper - well done!!

Yes I did back it today and should have put it on this thread but I never :(
 
Bruce’s Profit Maximization Thread is back,

Today we have Space Station who is rated 80 and last run at a significantly related track to Goodwood when coming 11th out of 14th beaten 4.75l by Decent Fella earning him a rating of 81 for this run.

There’s 1lb to play with but we must factor into proceedings that he’ dropping down 2 grades here from two to four with a high profile jockey booked that goes against the two claimers that have previously ridden him to no avail.

The horse has won three times in this grade and has won twice under the handling of Seb Sanders but you can’t get away from the fact that Simon Dow has been slow away from the blocks this year with minimal runners who aren’t reaching the frame.

If this is a ridiculous price then we might have a bet.

The 4.20 Sprint we have a horse for Malcolm Saunders called Fanrouge who ran behind Swiss Spirit at Newbury last time out running to a mark of 99 and she gets in here off 89 as bottom weight dropping into Handicap Company.
This horse has never run at a significantly related track to Goodwood and thus taking her rating from Newbury may be a little bit risky but given her positives it may balance out to be an outstanding bet with in form Kieran O’Neil booked for the ride.

Very enthusiastic about getting stuck into her at the prices and may well be a case of just how far for her tomorrow.

Fanrouge £100 EW @ 8/1
 
Taking a look over at the Northern Racecourse Musselburgh I’ve spotted one at a large price for Bryan Smart in the name of Mia Madonna who is making her reappearance as a 4 year old this year having previously been trained with Brian Meehan.

What I’m interested in was her run at Haydock which is a significantly related track to Musselburgh where she challenged and contested the lead on a bad strip of ground until the final furlong pole as she weakened into 7th an 11l behind eventual winner Grumeti.

The Official Rating I gave her for that run was 67 at the time she was rated 72 and has since dropped down to a mark of 60 at Musselburgh today. The next run was also at a significant course at Ffos Las where we can gain a few pieces of information for example she doesn’t stay 12f barely 10f & she doesn’t like fast ground.

When reappearing of a break last season she come 3rd out of five which was pleasing enough although not breathtaking but it does look the best chance to get her with Justin Newman booked to take off another 3lbs in this Class 5 Handicap I really think she’s well in at the weights and could potentially run a blinder.

Mia Madonna £50 EW @ 16/1
Mia Madonna & Fanrouge £25 EW Double
Mia Madonna, Fanrouge & Space Station £25 EW Treble
 
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Bruce_Savage said:
Taking a look over at the Northern Racecourse Musselburgh I’ve spotted one at a large price for Bryan Smart in the name of Mia Madonna who is making her reappearance as a 4 year old this year having previously been trained with Brian Meehan.

What I’m interested in was her run at Haydock which is a significantly related track to Musselburgh where she challenged and contested the lead on a bad strip of ground until the final furlong pole as she weakened into 7th an 11l behind eventual winner Grumeti.

The Official Rating I gave her for that run was 67 at the time she was rated 72 and has since dropped down to a mark of 60 at Musselburgh today. The next run was also at a significant course at Ffos Las where we can gain a few pieces of information for example she doesn’t stay 12f barely 10f & she doesn’t like fast ground.

When reappearing of a break last season she come 3rd out of five which was pleasing enough although not breathtaking but it does look the best chance to get her with Justin Newman booked to take off another 3lbs in this Class 5 Handicap I really think she’s well in at the weights and could potentially run a blinder.

Mia Madonna £50 EW @ 16/1
Mia Madonna & Fanrouge £25 EW Double
Mia Madonna, Fanrouge & Space Station £25 EW Treble
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very good shout Bruce
 
We're going in today ladies & gentlemen, trolls alike.

Keeping Mr Spiggot off his current mark could have been the worst thing the Handicapper may have done, he's run to 92 at Ripon before following that up with an effort of around 91, the top rated horse in this race is Hadaj who has to give away 7lb to a 91 rated horse. Tricky race, anything could come out and show its self a 95+ rated contender but we have evidence that Mr Spiggot is and will be flying low in these sorts of races throughout the season picking up a lot in place money I suspect.

Opera Gal is of interest in the Listed 10f at Goodwood, Jet Away susceptible to clever leader Tazeez & Kings Gambit prime examples whilst others in the race fail to grab my imagination with Fiorente bound to be over bet.

Life And Soul gets in here of 86 despite running to 91 off 92 four runs ago at Windsor a (SRT) carrying 9-10 in third behind winner Sirvino. The horse might still have it to find some of the other runners but the yard are in form with Hayley Turner looking likely for the ride I have some suspicion this horse looks “too good” to be true and maybe slightly over bet.

Trail Blaze looks an obvious place bet in the large 3yo Handicap at Haydock, potentially around a 92 rated horse his style and stepping up in class may be asking too much for him to win.

The one to note in the later sprint is Kyladdie whose last run at a (SRT) was here at Haydock last year running off 80 in a Class 4 sprint which he run to a level of 76, he gets in here off 77 with Raul Da Silva taking of 5lb and has only 8-8 carry instead of 9-10 when running 3l behind Ryan Style with top weight rated 85 giving away 8lbs including 5 claim comes to 13lbs which is around 4lengths.

The one that really catches my eye at Haydock is Roger Varian's Shazan who run a massive time when winning his Maiden at Doncaster running to around a mark of 95 which sees the top rated horse in this field Al Muheer running of 90 and must be one to be wary off in his own right after a blinding effort last time out.

Chris Fairhurst has Thackeray aiming for a hat-trick on the last race of the meeting which would be a big advertisement for his training abilities and I'm not sure the horse isn't without a chance, having secured a win last time out in an exemplary time that earned him an Offical rating of 75 he gets in here off 68, a step up in class but I haven't seen anything from My Single Malt, Ellie In The Pink, Izzy The Ozzy, President Lincoln, Venutius or Madam Macie to be worried about.

Nothing entices me at The Curragh although I've always thought Chicago was a lovely looking horse whose racing record to date probably has done him justice and could be worth following again today especially as the fast ground looks to have come.

Certal who ran to 84 & Antigua Sunrise 87 whilst running over 10f here last July and are 1lb lower each although I'm keen on Antigua Sunrise who carried 9-3 last year whilst Patrick Mathers has to only do 8-9. This horse is Yorkshire through and through it wouldn't surprise me to see it turn up and run a blinder as last year the horse was beaten 24l prior to running second and a similar even may happen today.

Looking at the Conditions even following my horse Saamidd returns who was always a beautiful looker and never done himself any justice but it's nice to see him still running and has shown he still holds that class but owes Saeed Bin Suroor a good run of form now and I wouldn't put it past this horse going close in Group 1's later on in the season - lovely looker.

I'm interested in Mystery Star for Mark Tompkins who might hold an interesting entry here at York, going back to 2010 this horse ran to around 105 behind Hanoverian Baron over 12f having to give a stone to the eventual winner but flashed home well. To be honest I've taken a dim view of the Queen Prize at Kempton which I thought Gulf Of Naples run to only 93 and found himself lumped with 101 for beating the same horse Halla San although run third in the flag start Chester Cup but I think 107 is a dim view of his achievements so far although I wouldn't say that potentially he could be a 107 later in season on ability.

There is also Cavalryman to consider who has run at two (SRT) in York (Juddmonte) & Sandown (Brigadier Gerard) firstly the Juddmonte was run in a crawl but managed to scythe through under the rail but couldn't find any extra against those who had a more killing turn of foot probably running to 118 or better. Sandown was a question of how far he was going to be beat as he came tailed off behind Workforce in a bog which tested the roots of his stamina and he didn't like it. The horse is rated 113 now which is probably a fare assessment although after Dubai I think the Godolphin have run their plans on him and now it’s a case of go enjoy your racing see what we can achieve.

There's every chance Mystery Star could through an upset for me at a big price especially if the grounds fast.

The sprint at York only holds one horse for me and that’s Secret Witness for Ron Harris who attempted a brave double on the Knavesmire last week as he comes back 9 days later for another attempt in which his horse holds all the cards.

The Judge ‘N Jury defeat was only marginal earning himself a rating of 110 in a very fast time indicating the Trainer’s confidence in the horse and given he’s running off 105 here I’d suspect there’s another bold show to come from him and looks destined for Group Company later in the season.
In my book top weight doesn’t affect sprinters so it shouldn’t be a worry for anyone wishing to back him today including me and who knows we might be seeing him in the Prix L’Abbaye come October.

I know Chris Beek has ultimate faith in Calio Cat today in running a blinder but I think his best chance on the card remains with ex-Stoute inmate Nibani who when you go back to his last run at a (SRT) he was 4th of 9th at Sandown behind Beyond beaten 7.5 lengths of 82.

The horse was running then with the first time Visors which clearly didn’t suit or bring about any form of improvement neither did the mile and three quarters trip as he weakened quickly despite being able to move through the pack. That run I have him down as running to 79 which means today off 75 excluding Charles Bishop’s 3lbs he could be in with a right chance given the top weight is rated 80.

There is a question mark over him at a mile but York is a long wide straight that requires a certain type of horse as many do fold under the circumstances here but things can also work out to your advantage with many horses who need further actually get their race to suit and with this being an apprentice race I’d like one of them screw loose jockey’s to go off like the clappers to bring in Nibani more.


Nibani - £200 each-way @ 33/1 (Bet365)
Secret Witness - £150 each-way @ 8/1 (Bet365)
Shazhan - £150 win @ 3/1 (Bet365)
Mystery Star - £50 each-way @ 33/1 (Bet365)

Saamidd, Kyladdie, Mr Spiggot (£5 each-way Treble)
Secret Witness, Shazhan, Thackary, Nibani (£5 each-way 4-Fold)
Mystery Star & Antigua Sunrise (£5 each-way Double)
Secret Witness, Shazhan, Thackary (£5 each-way treble)
Shazhan, Thackary, Nibani (£5 each-way treble)
 
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Well that was a savage Saturday, left my brains on the desktop and my wallet in the bin.

Here's my review of yesterday's races, hope you enjoy a different read from me and would probably saved you a lot more money too :lol:

Saturday Lowdown

Chester

Star Commander for Mark Thompkins runs a Listed Class speed rating (96.70) when adjusted for potential he shows up as borderline Group 2/3 performer running to a mark of 90 off 78.

The others, Qahriman runs to 97 off 87 with a Speed Rating of (103) whilst Cape Express runs to 90 off 84 with a Speed Rating of (96) with the former being a Luca Cumani first time out runner giving away 9lb for a 1.25l defeat may indicate the assumptions for Star Commander are rather indicative of Qahriman’s potential.

Lucky Dan the last winner on the shows that he’s well handicapped for Paul Green running to a mark of 77 off 63 whilst Song Of Parks may be able to find a race running to 74 off 70.

The Curragh

Starting off with the Irish 2000 Guineas won by Power it was a simply uninspiring performance on the clock as again the sprinters come to the fore in a race set up for them by Daddy Long Legs. This was visually franked by the jockey’s reluctance to go for home leaving their challenge as late as possible whereby at one stage you thought Daddy Long Legs had stolen it but this was clever riding indicating they rode their sprinters idealistically in a race to suit whilst getting away with the mile trip due to the early fractions indicative of the poor final time.

You just have to write this three year old crop as possibly the worst we’ve ever seen for some time whilst on that note we saw more promising signs for next year with Cay Verde putting up a decent performance over the 5f whereby he should have solid claims at Royal Ascot.

The eye catching performance on the card was that of Glor Na Mara who has probably found his niche in these heritage races for Jim Bolger and with a Listed time in his pocket he’s going to be dangerous in these racing for the foreseeable future and we may have to ignore anything in between but should be a real money spinner as we know he lacks the class to put his ability up against higher opposition.

Goodwood

There really is nothing to report from Goodwood today apart from the ground was running on the hard side with everything seemingly running their race and up to their level although if you were to crab anything then it would be the feature race won by Sea Moon was incredibly slow – good card nevertheless.

Haydock

Let’s start with the flagship race of the day in the Temple Stakes won by Bated Breath in quite a staggering final time earning a speed rating of (103.84) confirming himself as our best sprinter running to an Official Rating of 129 off 118 putting him right to the forefront of the sprinting division.
We have to get a few things straight in which a few race course commentators noted that there was quite a strong tailwind so we have to slightly factor that into proceedings but he enjoyed the fast ground today whilst the Standard Deviation of times is around 0.63 I do believe that we have something finally that we can go to war with.

The plan is to stick to 5f although I’d be inclined to try the 6f Golden Jubilee because if there were to be any American runners entering the King Stand who are notoriously quick 4.5f animals then I think the race may happen too soon for him and it would be devastating to come back into the paddock having plenty left in the tank.

That being said, I initially made those remarks earlier today having thought that the pace was of a medium nature indicating how well he travelled now we can argue that assumption could play into the strength of the tailwind or he did genuinely travel off a serious pace which means he may very well hold a serious chance in the King Stand, I’d like him to be stepped up in trip though.

Lingfield

No real standout performances from Lingfield although forum member Colin Philips noted that Lovely Pass a daughter by Raven’s Pass should be one to keep an eye on after missing the break by some margin. The one worth noting would be Piddie’s Power for Ed McMahon who has run to a mark of around 81 off 74 but I think he could be worth a little more for his victory under Ryan Moore as she came from the rear to swoop her rivals in fine style.

Newbury

The evening fixture at Newbury hasn’t thrown up anything special although the Fillies Auction Maiden should prove useful later on in the season when it comes to Nursery’s with the winner being worth at least 6.85 lengths quicker than what her class and performance on the race card suggests but without any indication of where we stand in terms of Official Ratings then only time will tell and I may be doing the form a disservice but suggesting it’s only worthy of Nursery material.

York

There’s really nothing to note from York although Powerful Wind runs to around 96 off 84, Last Bid in second runs to 99 off 92, Profile Star runs to 85 of 78 and the rest of the card looks solid enough with some slow to average times for the staying races.
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Faithfully runs in the Fillies Maiden at Newcastle today (6.35) and should hold solid credentials from that Newbury race and it would be nice to see where we stand.

Profile Star looks to be running at Ayr today and could do the Powerful Wind race a little boost today, with the winner running to 99 and at 3.7lb per length over 5f for a 1.75l defeat leaves him on a rating off 85 but the Handicapper has left him on 78.

The David Barron sprinter is also stepping down in Class but whilst there is no significant relationship between York & Ayr this 7lb opportunity looks too good to throw away.

£50 WIN Double
635 Faithfully 2/1 & 240 Profile Star 11/2
 
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Doubt it Collin, not sure what was going on last time out and couldn't back that horse again.
 
Bruce_Savage said:
Lucky Dan the last winner on the shows that he’s well handicapped for Paul Green running to a mark of 77 off 63 whilst Song Of Parks may be able to find a race running to 74 off 70.
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Won the 15:30 Carlilse at 15/2

How did he go off that price :lol:

Shame I'm skint, could do with an investor.
 
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