Flat Season 2020

Plenty of activity in the anti-post market for the Derby.

Waldkonig really caught my eye at Wolverhampton.

Mogul is shortening by the day.

Highest Ground for Michael Stoute shortening too.

Pinatubo is easy enough to back at 8's with more support for the unbeaten Saeed Bin Suroor trained Millitary March.

I guess at 25's Highest Ground must be the value selection at present in what is a guessing game as to how they'll have improved over the winter.

Whatever wins this years Derby will be going in there unbeaten too. That's my feeling.

On this basis I can't have Mogul or Innisfree.

They'll no doubt improve loads from last season but I'd favour Waldkonig, Millitary March or Highest Ground as their form is more fashionable with them all unbeaten thus far.

So it's Highest Ground for myself, especially with the current betting market trajectory which will have him starting shorter than the current 25/1 that he is.
 
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Marb said:
Breathtaking Look is a mare I am very keen on seeing again. She improved 20lbs + on her original rating by the end of 2019. The highlight was beating good opposition in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster when making all which is her customary way of running.

I am happy to put a line through her following all weather defeat. I feel she will prove her Doncaster win was no fluke.

Stuart Williams has a very exciting prospect to look forward to. A fast mile in a Group 3 around a track like Epsom in a race like the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the Derby meeting for older fillies and mares would be absoloutely perfect.
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She is entered in next Fridays Group 3 Abernant stakes at Newmarket, a track she has won at twice before.
 
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Marb said:
Plenty of activity in the anti-post market for the Derby.

Waldkonig really caught my eye at Wolverhampton.

Mogul is shortening by the day.

Highest Ground for Michael Stoute shortening too.

Pinatubo is easy enough to back at 8's with more support for the unbeaten Saeed Bin Suroor trained Millitary March.

I guess at 25's Highest Ground must be the value selection at present in what is a guessing game as to how they'll have improved over the winter.

Whatever wins this years Derby will be going in there unbeaten too. That's my feeling.

On this basis I can't have Mogul or Innisfree.

They'll no doubt improve loads from last season but I'd favour Waldkonig, Millitary March or Highest Ground as their form is more fashionable with them all unbeaten thus far.

So it's Highest Ground for myself, especially with the current betting market trajectory which will have him starting shorter than the current 25/1 that he is.
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Interested to see there is support for Military March. I have him at 25s ew and he’s now into 7s on Betfair. I think I backed him as I thought the name was nice! :lol:
 
Oh well done so far with getting 25's Jinny!

Yes looks like he could start favourite.

I read an article the other day where Charlie Appleby placed some theoretical stipulations on whether Pinatubo would run in the derby.
 
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Actually I think I backed before he won his second start. He’s a stunning looking horse with a lovely attitude. I had forgotten about him over the winter and up to now when I looked at me BF account. Not unhappy!
 
jinnyj said:
Actually I think I backed before he won his second start. He’s a stunning looking horse with a lovely attitude. I had forgotten about him over the winter and up to now when I looked at me BF account. Not unhappy!
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Did you put it on here at the time? If so, I probably followed you in although I don't see it on my log.

You're one of the few on here whose eye for a horse I trust!
 
You’re very kind!
No I don’t think so. At the time I did it on a whim. I’m not one who does much ante post but sometimes if I spot a horse I like physically I will go on my hunch.

On a separate note, I think it will be worth noting Jason Weavers tips especially next weekend. He’s very shrewd and has some strong contacts in Newmarket. I often find him picking horses I have been thinking about and if he does I usually back it.
 
My local track Newcastle takes centre stage tomorrow.

My nap runs in the 4:30 called Fox Hill. She's trained Eric Alston and is a positive in the betting currently 7/1. She won at Redcar and Catterick last season while finishing a fair third on soft ground up at Hamilton. I always like a handicapper (especially a filly) that can maintain its form on different goings as I think it shows versatility. She's progressive and looks bound to go close.

In the 3:55 I thought it might be worth taking a decent price of 9/1 that Roger Fells What A Business improves after a recent gelding operation. You can't underestimate how much a gelding operation can bring out the best in any horse. The favourite Oakenshield was also recently gelded but at twice the price What A Business gets my vote.

Finally, the odds indicate Global Spirit, also trained by Roger Fell, will improve or need the run in tomorrows 1:30. They all have the red hot favourite to beat so I will be keeping a watching brief, though I will do a little each way patent on the three for a sporting bet (each way).
 
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Marb said:
My local track Newcastle takes centre stage tomorrow.

My nap runs in the 4:30 called Fox Hill. She's trained Eric Alston and is a positive in the betting currently 7/1. She won at Redcar and Catterick last season while finishing a fair third on soft ground up at Hamilton. I always like a handicapper (especially a filly) that can maintain its form on different goings as I think it shows versatility. She's progressive and looks bound to go close.

In the 3:55 I thought it might be worth taking a decent price of 9/1 that Roger Fells What A Business improves after a recent gelding operation. You can't underestimate how much a gelding operation can bring out the best in any horse. The favourite Oakenshield was also recently gelded but at twice the price What A Business gets my vote.

Finally, the odds indicate Global Spirit, also trained by Roger Fell, will improve or need the run in tomorrows 1:30. They all have the red hot favourite to beat so I will be keeping a watching brief, though I will do a little each way patent on the three for a sporting bet (each way).
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Oakenshield went off a fair price of 11/2 in the end. Clearly improved after the gelding operation. Kicking myself a bit for not selecting it.

Global Spirit ran a good race. Only beaten a head for third place, he cemented my idea that he will win races on turf this season.

The Nap runs in the next.
 
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Sir Michael Stoute has landed a winner and has another one running in a few minutes.

He's four live chances tomorrow too.

You couldn't rule it out. :)
 
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Unlike Stoutey to have them so forward! If he’s had a winner already then definitely worth keeping on the right side of his.
 
Yes especially as the weather has been so good too. It’s not like you can say the cold weather has held them back and they haven’t come in their coats. Everything should be gleaming by now!
 
Guineas Weekend At Newmarket, Irish Guineas next week. Hopefully get season really going on here.

I’ll start up a thread for each of the four races. I can give some background to the two fillies races but very sparse on the colts. Who’s got any strong fancies?
 
Yes.

I wonder where forum member Outsider is? He liked the flat. I hope he is alright.

There are two or three so called handicappers stepping up to take on the group horses tomorrow. They are Escobar and Vale Of Kent.

They are both very good horses.

I might select Vale Of Kent for old time sake. Myself and Outsider had many a debate about him.

My overall theory or hunch is that there is increasingly less and less material difference between a very good handicapper and a group three or even group two horse.

They are usually underbet or underrated when they step up into the group races. I am absolutely sure plenty will step up and win their fair share of races at value odds this season.
 
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Marb said:
Breathtaking Look is a mare I am very keen on seeing again. She improved 20lbs + on her original rating by the end of 2019. The highlight was beating good opposition in the Group 3 Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster when making all which is her customary way of running.

I am happy to put a line through her following all weather defeat. I feel she will prove her Doncaster win was no fluke.

Stuart Williams has a very exciting prospect to look forward to. A fast mile in a Group 3 around a track like Epsom in a race like the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the Derby meeting for older fillies and mares would be absoloutely perfect.
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She's run with a lot of credit today.

Roll on her next race!!!
 
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Can’t not be impressed with English King today. Handled the track well and has plenty of improvement still.
Also Coronation Cup winner is a beast to look at. Second and third ran with credit too.
 
jinnyj said:
Can’t not be impressed with English King today. Handled the track well and has plenty of improvement still.
Also Coronation Cup winner is a beast to look at. Second and third ran with credit too.
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Certainly disposed of the other jf easily enough and they were well clear of the next. I'm not sure it was a hot race but agree about the impression.

I can't believe the Godolphin beast was allowed to go off odds-against given his advantage on all the ratings. Looked a monster in the first half of the race and was always well in control. I look forward to seeing some sectionals although I'm not sure if they have them at Newmarket.
 
Angus McNae has just contributed a socially-distanced analysis of the sectionals.

He says Ghaiyyath ran 11 successive sub-12sec furlongs, something 'very few horses can do'.

He closed with the word 'monster'.
 
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