Flat Season 2020

I don't watch RTV much, Colin. I take it you're not convinced either by sectionals or by AMcN?

Want to elaborate?
 
Colin Phillips said:
Should have stuck to training, he was much better at that.
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Not aware of AM's training achievements, but that he isn't doing it now tells its own story.
Wouldn't have him as a sectionals guru either. Fast ground form with a tailwind for the last 10f isn't something that happens frequently on the Rowley Mile track, imo.
 
Not a Fan of McNae at all. DO. It's quite a long time since I stopped subscribing to RTV but he always struck me as being lazy with homework and much too smug - his stats as a trainer were quite reasonable (perhaps it was too much like hard work), reet.

I'm quite sure sectionals are invaluable to some but the interpretation and use of them are a bit beyond my old Welsh grey cells.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Not a Fan of McNae at all. DO. It's quite a long time since I stopped subscribing to RTV but he always struck me as being lazy with homework and much too smug - his stats as a trainer were quite reasonable (perhaps it was too much like hard work), reet.

I'm quite sure sectionals are invaluable to some but the interpretation and use of them are a bit beyond my old Welsh grey cells.
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My little cells are almost as grey as yours, Colin, but I'm embracing the value of sectionals. I did subscribe to Timeform's for a season but 90% related to AW racing and there were no Flat ones for Newmarket or Ascot's straight course, which is no use to me. I think that will change.

For me, they give a better quantification of performance over and above bare ratings. If I reckon a horse has won despite the race not being run to suit I put a + next to the rating. Sectionals allow me to put a figure on the +.

That aside and even allowing for a tailwind, eleven sub-12-second furlongs (in a 12f race) has to be pretty special. A lot of tracks have a figure around 60-seconds for their 5f standard time. He's maintained that speed for more than double the distance.
 
Good performance by Far Above there but he definitely looked lame on his near fore coming back into the winners enclosure.
 
I just wonder when and where Stoute plans to run Highest Ground.

What Derby trials are coming up in the next week or two?
 
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What's the nearest thing to a derby trial at Royal Ascot?

I am sure there is a 3 year old only handicap over 1M4F?

Who knows.
 
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PlaceBacker said:
Can not wait to see Buckhurst in action again

Loved this colt since his debut win last season for Joseph O'Brien, and was winning Group 3 races in the summer.

Pretty confident that he is a Group 1 winner waiting to happen
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Runs in a listed race tomorrow at Navan [4pm]

Win bet at 3-1
 
I've had a fairly cursory look at last weekend's racing and this is where my thoughts are currently heading.

Coronation Cup - I thought Ghaiyyath was visually very impressive and while Angus McNae was fulsome in his praise of the winner, it turns out the overall time was nothing special, presumably down to a combination of factors, including fast ground, tailwind and - possibly - a bias towards frontrunners. The day after the race Charlie Appleby said the winner lost only 5kg in the race (so clearly didn't have too hard a time of it) and Buick talked about the horse's very high cruising speed. I think the form in behind makes an awful lot of sense and, while my own time ratings don't yell 'monster' I think the collateral form can be read very positively. I got the impression AVD was there to run to at least his Derby form. I think Stradivarius was there to run his race but was maybe compromised a bit by trying to chase down the clear leader too soon. He'll still be hard to beat in the staying races that matter. The 117-rated Broome was probably ridden to run close to his true race, which would shed a very positive light on the form but it might make Strad a wee bit high for this distance and AVD a commensurate amount slightly better than I expected him to run. The true value of the form is probably somewhere not far behind those implications.

2000 Guineas - I was gutted that Pinatubo didn't win even though I didn't back him. I really wanted to see him train and remain as far clear of his contemporaries as Frankel had done. Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis is very interesting, though, suggesting that the race was run faster than Frankel's Guineas. The conditions would have allowed that but it's interesting all the same. His figures also suggest Pinatubo was asked too much too soon but his mark-up doesn't suggest he'd have won under a more patient ride. That honour goes to Wichita. My time ratings shine a modest light on the form, in contrast to my immediate impression that we'd just seen a very good race. Kameko's slightly troubled run probably did him a favour, allowing him to conserve energy at a time when others were running inefficiently. I know at least one judge thought Pinatubo was changing his legs a lot and it's possible he's still better than he showed. Neither Kameko nor Wichita will stay the Derby trip and I'm not sure Military March will be good enough although he was probably not seriously expected to peak here. If Pinatubo turned up at Epsom I wouldn't be averse to a punt but the chances are O'Brien has one or two laid out for it.

1000 Guineas - I'm struggling to summon up enthusiasm for the form although I should stress that I haven't looked very closely yet but Love was impressive considering the Oaks trip should suit her much better. It may have been a case of the only good filly running her race with the promise of more to come over further but again O'Brien will almost certainly have at least another one primed to run well at Epsom. I'll look more closely again later in the week.

Lingfield Derby Trial - AVD may have gone on from here to take the Epsom race last year and plenty seemed taken by English King but on my figures he needs to find a lot to have a serious chance. It looked to me like only he and the runner up had a serious chance of winning this race and my time ratings point to a modest performance but probably around average for a Lingfield Trial.

For those interested in Simon Rowlands's sectional analysis, it's available without any need to log in at the ATR site. I recommend you check it out. It's always worth a read even if sectionals aren't your bag.
 
Observations
Ghaiyyath got an easy lead, and it's been a feature of the season so far how many 'easy leaders' have won their races. Whether that's down to opponents being given an easy introduction is left to your own judgement.
Frankel's Guineas was run on soft ground, and comparing Pinatubo with him is (and was) laughable. Imo P's a good colt, but unlikely to live up to the hype bestowed on him.
 
I cannot see how Pinatubo was anything else other than exposed last weekend. Made ground up but was clear that he was flattening out pretty tamely in a matter of strides. Will do well to win a group 1 at 3.
 
Does anybody have any views on Fridays racing at the Curragh?

I have studied the card but would be still be interested in our resident Irish forumites views...

Where has Luke been btw? He hasn't posted for a while.

Come on Slim. What wins on Friday night?
 
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HawkWing said:
I cannot see how Pinatubo was anything else other than exposed last weekend. Made ground up but was clear that he was flattening out pretty tamely in a matter of strides. Will do well to win a group 1 at 3.
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Plenty of people expected him to be overtaken this season so they're understandably feeling justified. My gut - and that's all it is - says he didn't run his race and I will be delighted if future events back my guts.

People with better memories than mine will be able to rattle off the outstanding 2yos who didn't train on but there are plenty of outstanding 2yos who did train on and defied the same kind of people who didn't fancy Pinatubo to do so.

If the figures were saying this was a super Guineas I wouldn't feel as bad but the figures are suggesting that Love would be a match for Kameko with the fillies' allowance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Plenty of people expected him to be overtaken this season so they're understandably feeling justified. My gut - and that's all it is - says he didn't run his race and I will be delighted if future events back my guts.

People with better memories than mine will be able to rattle off the outstanding 2yos who didn't train on but there are plenty of outstanding 2yos who did train on and defied the same kind of people who didn't fancy Pinatubo to do so.

If the figures were saying this was a super Guineas I wouldn't feel as bad but the figures are suggesting that Love would be a match for Kameko with the fillies' allowance.
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The thing that was noticeable was when he got to Wichita the obvious difference in size. It all suddenly became harder work for Pinatubo to keep pace. The extra month might have been the difference in getting a guineas win out of the horse. I didnt have a bet on the race and didnt have a strong opinion beforehand - except that the gap between Pinatubo and the rest was reducing by Oct-Nov of last year.
 
edgt said:
Some one bound to be pleasantly surprised by the improvement in a 3 yo to give it a whirl; just remember the Irish Derby winners through the years back along that ran in King Edward VII Stakes.
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Surely the King Edward and Ribblesdale are not that far off the gap to Epsom that the Musidora/Dante and Predominate/Lupe trials used to be in a normal year? So I agree with edgt.
 
I have had at look at Tuesdays card. Looks an excellent card.

I'd like to see Oxted hold up and frank the form of the race where he beat Breathtaking Look last week.
What a ride this could be for the young Fallon in the Kings Stand.
 
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We should find out if Highest Ground gets the entry in the 1M4F handicap on Wednesday soon.
 
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