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Flatties to follow 2025

Euronymous said:
Hunky Dory's one of mine as well and yes he is too short to back. When that happens I just put them in multis and I had this one in doubles with Al Riffa and Seraph Gabriel. What a nightmare.

Anyway, worst Royal Ascot I've ever had possibly no winners but when I do my racing review next week I'm including the 2yos so I'll likely have a ton of new trackers next week.
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Had thought about a cheeky EW double yesterday, when they opened 9/4 and 5/2, but wasn't sure how fast the groud would end up, was far too tired for weather predictions. Also concluded that I'd be tryign to force some value out of them. Decided it was just a little too risky for any potential benefit. Had the forecast 5/1 for HD been available, I'd have been all over it, like a spider from mars.

Going to clean out my notebook tomorrow. I too have a good weeks worth of replays to review, so as quick as I get rid of them, I'll be adding more back in. Should end up with about 50, which is just about manageable for me these days.
I'm also ditching any from Chester & Lingfield, I'll not be taking notes or betting on horses there again, it's a default position I'm taking (and I mean it this time :) ).
 
jinnyj said:
I think it's just a question of learning the basics. I have gone through it before on here - admittedly I have an advantage as I literally grew up on a horse but if you stick to a small set of rules, it's not too difficult. I might start a thread when I have some time.
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I'd be very interested in that, Jinny. Having been a time merchant for years, I never did learn much about a horses structure/motion, just kind of self taught from watching replays, but not so sure of my thinking a lot of the time. I get the basic toe pointer, rounded and knee action thing in principle regarding going preference, but that's about my limit, the rest I try to use a kind of physics/assumption combo and hope for the best.

Would love to learn about head carriage/neck extension, and how that relates to performance on gradients. 50% of the time I'm stabbing in the dark with stuff like this and hope I'm right half the time when I guess, it would be great to lose the doubt. Say I see a horse which looks to have short front legs with a rounded action, I'd be inclined to think it might like running uphill. I noted one at Kemptons AW not long ago, had a slight rounded action when hitting full stride, but front legs weren't making contact with the surface quick enough (not sure what that situation is called), like it was lunging into air, and front hooves touching down more or less under it's shoulders (which looked a waste of energy/propulsion). Again thought that may prefer an uphill finish, but unsure and would love to have more confidence in what I see. Are long front legs good for downhill gradients? Also action for gradients, had just assumed rounded for uphill, but don't know and very in the dark regarding running downhill. I'm pretty much all at sea with a lot of this area and would love some assitistance.

I noticed DO had praised your horse conformation expertise in some thread recently. I was half tempted to appear on a PM with my begging bowl out, but thought I'd better settle back in first. I truly am fascinated and very keen to learn. Also any book(s) you could suggest on the subject would be great too.
 
Dingo Bingo said:
31/05/25 YORK 3:50 HUNKY DORY
All up ran to 69 - 70 off 73. Drawn stall 22. Enjoyed the fast ground, couldn't be confident on GDSFT, yet needs a little more of a test. Stayed on well once pace slowed. Ground was riding fast at meeting (definitely GDFM). Hunky Dory can go in when ground closer to GD or GDfm, but wouldn't want it on soft side. Is bred for futher. so similar on not so fast, or 'might' be worth a try over 1M on GDFM.
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Don't think I'd trust HD over a mile (not this year), but happy to stick with previous summary. Straight 7 on GD - GDfm. Hopefully better price when conditions suit, but always going to be susceptible to lightly raced improvers for a while.
Winner travelled sweetly into contention on the outside and is progressive, but not one for my notebook.
 
Dingo Bingo said:
I'd be very interested in that, Jinny. Having been a time merchant for years, I never did learn much about a horses structure/motion, just kind of self taught from watching replays, but not so sure of my thinking a lot of the time. I get the basic toe pointer, rounded and knee action thing in principle regarding going preference, but that's about my limit, the rest I try to use a kind of physics/assumption combo and hope for the best.

Would love to learn about head carriage/neck extension, and how that relates to performance on gradients. 50% of the time I'm stabbing in the dark with stuff like this and hope I'm right half the time when I guess, it would be great to lose the doubt. Say I see a horse which looks to have short front legs with a rounded action, I'd be inclined to think it might like running uphill. I noted one at Kemptons AW not long ago, had a slight rounded action when hitting full stride, but front legs weren't making contact with the surface quick enough (not sure what that situation is called), like it was lunging into air, and front hooves touching down more or less under it's shoulders (which looked a waste of energy/propulsion). Again thought that may prefer an uphill finish, but unsure and would love to have more confidence in what I see. Are long front legs good for downhill gradients? Also action for gradients, had just assumed rounded for uphill, but don't know and very in the dark regarding running downhill. I'm pretty much all at sea with a lot of this area and would love some assitistance.

I noticed DO had praised your horse conformation expertise in some thread recently. I was half tempted to appear on a PM with my begging bowl out, but thought I'd better settle back in first. I truly am fascinated and very keen to learn. Also any book(s) you could suggest on the subject would be great too.
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I'll try and put a thread up this week especially for you then :)
 
jinnyj said:
I'll try and put a thread up this week especially for you then :)
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Woohoo. You've no idea how appreciative I am (and I bet I speak for others too). I've tried for years looking for answers off and on. Everywhere I looked it was the build of different types of horse with diagrams, but nothing that linked the subject to racing, I could narrow it down to racehorses, but that's as far is it went, mostly a biology/vetinary type thing.
 
CHEP 4:20 KAMEKIST

05/05/25 WIND 4:15 KAMEKIST (3yo)
Not sure if it could have won, or how much more it had left. Seemed to be travelling well within itself. Jockey kept angling into a position but never went through with any real effort. Could have forced way through to challenge, but never really ridden at all. Suspect it could have been in the thick of things for places, don't think it could have beaten winner Rare Change that came from rear. KAMEKIST deserves a bit extra credit for running prominently too. There was a slight pace collapse (2L - 3L maybe), which enabled the winner to come through and keep the overall field pace constant on the pace chart. Winner did it well though. Again, KAMEKIST had running left if jockey had driven the horse, maybe would have only been beaten 1L by winner, accounting for pace collapse, it could win a race like that. Adjusted SF's would then have it running to around mark.

Rare change came out of that class 4 and has won 2 class 3 races now and unplaced in a class 2. Won well at Ponty yesterday. I backed Kamekist EW NTO at Haydock over 7, where ran too fast too early, but managed to hold on for 3rd. I had noted Soldiers Star in that race, as that came from wide stall to lead at fast pace early, got a breather in with Kamekist (who tracked it througout) and the pair kicked on in the last 3F, but got collared by Organ (racing a little further back in third) just as they'd given their all, with a load of closers coming from way back.
Interesting that Organ went on to win 2 consequtive class 4's over an extra furlong after this, completing the hatrick.
I was expecting a better run from Soldiers Star at Newmarket the other night. Have just watched that replay and feel Soldiers Star would prefer a galloping or slightly stiff 6F (Leicester would probably be ideal). On that note I think similar could be said for Kamekist, so dropping back to 6 at Cheptow today can be viewed as a positive. Is only 3/1 though and with it being unproven on undulations, I think it's priced about right. Might have a nibble if it drifts (unlikely), so will probably remove from notebook after todays race, while keeping an eye on Soldiers Star for a while longer.
 
5 from notes running today. 2 in same race.

CARL 3:15

PISANELLO 25/1 ( 25's long gone, into 14's and 12's now)

14/06/25 YORK PISANELLO
Lost 5L at start (is a trait to start slow, but not always). Rushed up to race midfieled early. Didn't get a clear run. Had it started a little better (say only lost 2 - 2.5L) and not used energy to rush up into midefield early, then accounting for not clear run too, could have won this by 1L. Dropped another 2lb to 74. Looks potentially well in. Entered to run in a decent class 4 at Carlisle tomorrow over 1M. Does much prefer some give in ground which it will get at Carlisle.

EPIDAVROS

15/06/25 HAMI 5:45 EPIDAVROS
Was travelling best approaching 2f out, ridden and should have got the upperhand against winner, but seemed to become very distracted by the crowd. Jockey needed both hands to keep it's head straight and more focused, even then it still looked curiously at the crowd. Overall SF's weren't that good and has yet to clock as high as it's mark. Entered to join Pisanello in the 3:15 at Carlisle tomorrow. Will be dropping back in trip and class. Will also enjoy the ground, but unsure of the trip. PJ McDonald takes the ride who gets on well with horse, shouldn;t be fading at the finish, but can it get there in time?

CONCLUSION
You can kind of see my remarks in the notes for the above pair, as I only noted them yesterday, that's how far behind I'd got. Up to date now, apart from HCP's at Ascot. Anyway, have sided with PISANELLO 75% Win 25% Place.


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SALI 3:55 DARK THIRTY 10/3

14/05/25 YORK 2:42 DARK THIRTY
Went too hard early, but deserves extra credit to stay right to the fore all the way. Winner crossing line at 34mph. TWO TRIBES looked to come flying down the outside late, but it simply saved it's energy and came through as others to the fore dropped out like flies. TWO TRIBES was actually detached by a few lengths early, suspect that was starting to slow also? So DARK THIRTY deserves extra credit for doing what it did. Still looks fairly treated, but might need a break after this. Goes well on level galloping course on GD - GDFM (suspect GDfm might be best), rather than what looked like GDFM in this race. Ideally needs to drop back into a Class 3. There's nothing unlucky noted here, more of a caution to not oppose and could be an EW bet to nothing at some point.

CONCLUSION
Has had a break. Interesting to watch. Don't see any value at 10/3, but I'm still tempted to have a small Win bet. I won't, as Montpellier could be anything (within reason), and the odds are too short for my liking anyway. I'd have it at 5/2 - 11/4, so not much margin for error.

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SALI 5:35 INVINCIBLE DUKE 8/1

03/05/25 GOOD 4:33 INVINCIBLE DUKE (3yo)
Trapped on inner. 1st time blinkers but aware of horse in front and to side. No room, jockey poised to press button. Not a rapid turn of foot, but could have run on resolutely. Only previous runs are 3 AW attempts. Hard to see ground preference clues from action, though certainly not a noticeable knee action, so probably no slower than GDSFT. Obviously more to come. Didn't seem green and blinkers may well be advantageous.

CONCLUSION
A bit risky switching to Salisbury and expecting a similar performace as Goodwood. EW is out of the window for me, as only 7 runners and besides, it's more a case of it does or it doesnt. If it doesn't like the climb at Salisbury, then may well not finish is the first 3 anyway.On the other hand, the climb may help it's cause. Not keen on Jockey, but does take 7 off. Small Win bet.

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KEMP 8:00

LUNAR ORBIT 6/1

29/05/25 SAND 6:05 LUNAR ORBIT (3yo)
Ran a great race from the front. They were slowing right down at the line, so to lead and race in 2nd to then rally and hold that position, was a good performance, as there was quite a pace collapse. The hood seems to have been very beneficial. Also took some pulling up after the line, so bags of stamina and pace.

CONCLUSION
The are a couple of dangers in the race tonight (Lazieelunch and Lessay would be my concerns). However, I think the hood has worked absolute wonders with Lunar Oribit and can see it powering away resolutley up the straight.
Surface should be OK. Nicely drawn in 2 for it's probable running style in this. At 6/1 it's not a bad looking Win bet, but have slight concerns regarding Jockey and a couple of others, so thinking EW is probably the better option.
 
Couldn't make it up. DARK THIRTY wins unbacked, so can come out of notebook.
PISANELLO and EPIDAVROS are leaving the notebook quicker than they went in.
LUNAR ORBIT went close, looks better on turf.

Meanwhile...back at the Ranch... ON THE RIVER was taken out of notebook a few days ago, having been in there since last year. No sooner is it dropped, it goes and wins at 14/1. Same with Lyndon B at 6/1 the other day. I also left Spanish Star alone 2 days ago, again goes in at 15/2.

If you put your ear to the ground, you might just be able to hear me pulling my hair out.
Torturous stuff!
 
Oh...Dark Thirty was in my tracker too... :cry: I've been stupid busy as I am running the Wessex Point to Point Awards this Saturday so didn't take it in when I got the notification...damnit!
 
NEWC 1:40 SERGEANT WILKO 12/1 EW

31/05/25 HAYD 1:48 SERGEANT WILKO
Ran a cracker from the front. Probably ran to 95/96. CP's seem to have brought about a little improvement.

CONCLUSION.
Looks rated to run a big race in a HCPing sense and is in form. Jockey booking looks interesting too. Nicely drawn. Negatives are stepping up in class and also forecast to be around a 10mph headwind (usually liking to make the running). Spencer might try to settle in behind Never Just A Dream up the nearside.

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YORK 4:50 LESLEY'S BOY 25/1 EW

15/06/25 HAMI 4:15 LESLEY'S BOY
Horse drawn to it's left crossed in front of it after stalls opened, causing it to steady up, steadily crossed over to middle and raced in last. Jocked only nudged to try and get a position to make a run, but never got chance. Was going well as ground started to level out, still not driven (or even ridden), eased down and dropped back.
Without incident at start and granted a clear run, probably could have won this. Hard to tell if it would have changed gear, as they were starting to slow, but looked like it would have responded to a smack once straightened up and ridden. Feel it could have run to 86 off 82, has been dropped to 81. Entered to run over 6F at York on Saturday in a similar quality race.

CONCLUSION
Looks potentially well HCPed. Will need a decent pace to aim at, which it should get. Stall 16 could be a blesing (if it can nestle in at the rear of midfield), as forecast to be quite a strong side wind coming across the straight from far side. Jockey doesn't have a great record on 3yo's at York, but does manage to place a lot of the time.

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DONC 5:50 ANOTHER INVESTMENT 16/1 EW

03/05/25 THIR 4:23 ANOTHER INVESTMENT
Lost both front shoes. Had more to offer (how much?), got the impression it needs further, say 7F on GDfm - GDFM these days, on a galloping straight course, or at least with long run in. Doesn't win often (to say the least), but worthy of an EW at potentially big odds given correct circumstances. Never been rated this low, can drop into class a 5 and may have it's 76 rating lowered again after this result.

CONCLUSION
Now down to 74 (new career low mark). Alex Jary is taking another 5 off and gets a good run out of horse over 6F (twice over the CD). Ingleby Archie and Smart Vision could ensure a brisk pace overall, which Another Investment will need without a bit of give in ground. Possibility of a last to first performance with a couple of length pace collapse. Forecast moderate headwind could help a little too.

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3 X EW Singles
1 X EW Treble

I wrote those down as forecast prices last night. I think AI and SW are a bit shorter. I've just placed the bet a while ago, and can't remembe the prices. Oddschecker is being a pain and I have to go out. Anyway, they're decent enough odds.Think I took 10's and 14's and 25's, or thereabouts.
 
Dingo Bingo said:
YORK 4:50 LESLEY'S BOY 25/1 EW

15/06/25 HAMI 4:15 LESLEY'S BOY
Horse drawn to it's left crossed in front of it after stalls opened, causing it to steady up, steadily crossed over to middle and raced in last. Jocked only nudged to try and get a position to make a run, but never got chance. Was going well as ground started to level out, still not driven (or even ridden), eased down and dropped back.
Without incident at start and granted a clear run, probably could have won this. Hard to tell if it would have changed gear, as they were starting to slow, but looked like it would have responded to a smack once straightened up and ridden. Feel it could have run to 86 off 82, has been dropped to 81. Entered to run over 6F at York on Saturday in a similar quality race.

CONCLUSION
Looks potentially well HCPed. Will need a decent pace to aim at, which it should get. Stall 16 could be a blesing (if it can nestle in at the rear of midfield), as forecast to be quite a strong side wind coming across the straight from far side. Jockey doesn't have a great record on 3yo's at York, but does manage to place a lot of the time.
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He's having another run tomorrow, 6.05 Chester. Currently 33/1. First time cheekpieces, and apprentice ridden (Conor Orr, claiming 3lb).

I think he'll pop up in one of these one day, though 6f at Chester wouldn't have been my first choice for an ideal setup. Incidentally, Easy Peeler is currently 100/30 for this - Lesley's Boy gave it 4lb and 0.5 length beating when they were both having their 3rd run as 2yo's. Tomorrow, he gets 5lb from the rival.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
He's having another run tomorrow, 6.05 Chester. Currently 33/1. First time cheekpieces, and apprentice ridden (Conor Orr, claiming 3lb).

I think he'll pop up in one of these one day, though 6f at Chester wouldn't have been my first choice for an ideal setup. Incidentally, Easy Peeler is currently 100/30 for this - Lesley's Boy gave it 4lb and 0.5 length beating when they were both having their 3rd run as 2yo's. Tomorrow, he gets 5lb from the rival.
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Jockey change to Jonny Peate, which seems a positive thing.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
I had a good afternoon yesterday, but boy oh boy if Kildare Legend had held on in the class two handicap at Haydock, it would have been even more profitable.

That said, he ran a fantastic race from the front, just getting mugged by a really solid handicapper in Stressfree.

If the handicapper doesn't overeact which I'm sure he won't, I'd be interested in Kildare Legend for furure races, maybe even the 1M4F handicap at Royal Ascot.

The trainer is capable. The same connections also had Deauville Legend who went close to winning the aforementioned handicap at Royal Ascot, before becoming a group horse. I'm sure the owner will hope for something similar with Kildare. He did all the donkey work yesterday, but given a wee bit more improvement he can win a good race.

He won with cut in the ground at Doncaster and that might be a plus for him going forward, especially if he's getting done for a bit of toe at the business end.
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Kildare Legend is entered in the 1M4F handicap on Friday at Ascot. I find it interesting connections missed engagements at the Royal meeting, where they would have encountered good to firm ground, to save the horse for a possible tilt at this. Henceforth, some rain due at Ascot this week, and if there is a bit of juice in the ground I'll be having a decent bet on this horse. I'm thinking good to soft or soft would be ideal.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
Kildare Legend is entered in the 1M4F handicap on Friday at Ascot. I find it interesting connections missed engagements at the Royal meeting, where they would have encountered good to firm ground, to save the horse for a possible tilt at this. Henceforth, some rain due at Ascot this week, and if there is a bit of juice in the ground I'll be having a decent bet on this horse. I'm thinking good to soft or soft would be ideal.
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Yes, geuine GDSFT would look perfect. Doesn't mind a stiff course. Yard long overdue a win at Ascot. Horse seems better this year too. Only negative I see is Jockey course stats. Half of that likely to be yard course stats though. Fingers crossed the rain comes.
 
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