Frankel and the International Stakes

Amazing racehorse.

It would be so exciting to see him run in the Arc or Breeders Cup Classic but we all know there's no chance he'll run in either race.

Champion Stakes then retirement.
 
Super performance and I'm genuinely pleased that, being one of his biggest critics, Queally is now shining on him.

But did he equal Brigadier Gerard's best there?
 
Champion Stakes - without a doubt. Why do you want to stretch him to a mile & a half in notoriously one of the hardest races to win luck wise?

I want this horse to retire unbeaten.
 
Based on the ORs going into the race, it looks like this:

Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Rating	Lengths	Cumul	Pndage	Pounds	WinRat[/b]
1	Frankel			140	0.00	0.00	1.75	0	140
2	Farhh			122	7.00	7.00	1.75	12	[b][color=red]134[/color][/b]
3	St Nicholas Abbey	124	0.02	7.02	1.75	12	[b][color=red]136[/color][/b]
4	Twice Over		118	6.00	13.02	1.75	23	141
5	Bullet Train		108	0.25	13.27	1.75	23	[b][color=red]131[/color][/b]
6	Sri Putra		116	2.00	15.27	1.75	27	143
7	Planteur		117	3.75	19.02	1.75	33	150
8	Robin Hood		99	15.00	34.02	1.75	60	159
9	Windsor Palace		106	11.00	45.02	1.75	79	185

So that suggests a lower bound of 131 via Bullet Train. However, they've had him on 111 before, which would put Frankel on 134, which would be in line with Farhh. With the line through St Nicholas Abbey suggesting 136, then a number between 134-136 is fairly obvious.

Timeform's methods are a tad more advanced than the yardstick method that the BHA use above, but the same table using their ratings looks like this (I'm guessing at a 2 lbs/length poundage, they may go higher):

Code: 
[b]Pos	Horse			Rating	Lengths	Cumul	Pndage	Pounds	WinRat[/b]
1	Frankel			147	0.00	0.00	2.00	0	147
2	Farhh			130	7.00	7.00	2.00	14	[b][color=red]144[/color][/b]
3	St Nicholas Abbey	130	0.02	7.02	2.00	14	[b][color=red]144[/color][/b]
4	Twice Over		124	6.00	13.02	2.00	26	150
5	Bullet Train		113	0.25	13.27	2.00	27	[b][color=red]140[/color][/b]
6	Sri Putra		121	2.00	15.27	2.00	31	152
7	Planteur		122	3.75	19.02	2.00	38	160
8	Robin Hood		106	15.00	34.02	2.00	68	174
9	Windsor Palace		107	11.00	45.02	2.00	90	197

Again Bullet Train is the limiting factor, suggesting a rating of 140, but something like race standardisation might suggest a few pounds more (what's their average rating for a 5th place in this race?) and confirm Frankel around 143/144 in line with Farhh and SNA.

Edit: Timeform's provisional rating is 143.
 
When horses are beaten by so many lengths and so comfortably, literal interpretations of the distances are just guesswork imo. He would probably beat a 60 rateed horse by same as a 114.

Its almost like saying one goal is better than another because it hit the back of net harder
 
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only just watched a rerun of the race...truly superb...easily best horse i've ever seen

really sad to see Henry looking so very poorly


I think Bullet Train's rating is questionable as he has not really been given chance to show his proper level by winning a race recently...i would be ignoring him as a rating off tool..especially when you have plenty of horses we do know the level of
 
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clivex said:
literal interpretations of the distances are just guesswork imo.
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Less guesswork than non-literal interpretations.

EC1 said:
I think Bullet Train's rating is questionable as he has not really been given chance to show his proper level by winning a race recently...i would be ignoring him as a rating off tool..especially when you have plenty of horses we do know the level of
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I wouldn't want to see him being raised half a stone or more just to justify a big rating for Frankel, but three pounds or so to bring him in line with the other horses seems relatively plausible given the unusual career he's had (as you say, he's not really had a chance to be properly exposed).
 
Bullet Train's time of ~128.80s is 1.19s faster than the winner of the handicap managed when running to mark of around 106/7 whilst carrying 9lbs more.

1.19s = 7.14 lengths = 12lbs, less the 9lbs extra carried makes Bullet Train's performance 3lbs better on the clock, suggesting a maximum* timefigure of 111 on the OR scale. Fits right in with his best previous form as mentioned above.



*evidence from the other races over different distances might reduce it further, but it can't go any higher.
 
no i wouldn't want a false rating either for BT

i think in all the discussion of Frankel's ratings it is generally ignored that the horse has won most of his races like Nijinsky did...like today..just how superior was he?

I think if he was ridden like Secretariat used to be ridden we would be seeing 15 length+ beatings of the fields he has faced

we won't see anything like him again for a long time will we?...we are very lucky to be witnessing this stuff
 
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does anyone know if the distances at York ever changed back to what they were before they did the Ascot stuff...before then the distances were always just a bit shorter ..ie 8f was something like 7f205yds

i know they are quoted as being full distances now ...but with how accuracy doesn't seem to matter they might be the old ones?
 
EC1 said:
no i wouldn't want a false rating either for BT

i think in all the discussion of Frankel's ratings it is generally ignored that the horse has won most of his races like Nijinsky did...like today..just how superior was he?

I think if he was ridden like Secretariat used to be ridden we would be seeing 15 length+ beatings of the fields he has faced

we won't see anything like him again for a long time will we?...we are very lucky to be witnessing this stuff
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I think any rating for Frankel needs to come with the rider that there's always a great big plus after it since you could go up to any number you liked if you started adding on pounds for the style and what's left in the tank.

That said, he's ridden more like Secretariat than he is like Sea The Stars and that's why he's the highest rated horse in Timeform's history (and would be by the BHA if they had a clue). Queally and connections deserve credit for letting him stretch out, indeed I'd like to see him sent on a little earlier next time (not like in the SJP, mind!) because the finishing line is the only thing that's constraining his rating now. He's just incredible.
 
I wonder if they would just consider him at 5?

Just think to hell with it, theres a stack on 12f group ones to look at now.

KA hardly needs the cash and hasnt always struck me as taking the miserable route unlike some owners who give the impression that they need to stud fees to pay for the council tax bill

Of course, sadly, there is the trainer factor

But what an astonishing animal ... best ive seen by 7 lengths or whatever

(and please no replies along the lines of "no alternative to retiring" "stud value blah blah". Not everyone is a deadbeat testosterone free accountant)
 
working along the lines that the distances are correct i get these speed figures for todays meeting


95 TAX FREE
91 DUNDONNELL
33 THOUGHT WORTHY
134 FRANKEL
101 DANADANA

going allowance +16lb = Good/GF
 
Let's put the other argument.

The breed needs his seed. If he were to run in the Arc and win it there would be nothing left for him to prove on the racecourse. In what way might a 5-y-o season be different?
 
Generally I think it is tough for European horses to go the Breeders' but I would love to see him go over and win there. I think Ascot will be his last and that's not a shame in any way, but I think the US would have been a perfect end to his racing career.
A lot of owners would have retired him at 3. We have been lucky and grateful to see him at 4.
 
jinnyj said:
Champion Stakes - without a doubt. Why do you want to stretch him to a mile & a half in notoriously one of the hardest races to win luck wise?

I want this horse to retire unbeaten.
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Me too but what would luck have to do with it ? Surely, given he is at his best, he does not need luck, such is his superiority. He was nearly at the start of the 1m2f start before he could be pulled up today.

I do not think I will live to see a better horse and he does not have to run/win the arc to prove it to me (connections will be relieved to hear) but it would very nearly be a crime if he did not run in the Arc.
 
et's put the other argument.

The breed needs his seed. If he were to run in the Arc and win it there would be nothing left for him to prove on the racecourse. In what way might a 5-y-o season be different?
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the breed can wait for one year ffs.

im assuming he wont run in the arc admittedly (and that does look unlikely) but even if he did, go a beat a few around the world. Go and win it again. how many do that?Lighten up and enjoy

If was a multi billionaire owner, there would be no question. Give something back and let eveyone see this incredible horse
 
I d
o not think I will live to see a better horse and he does not have to run/win the arc to prove it to me (connections will be relieved to hear)
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This is why flat racing is such a peculiar sport that baffles many.

KP smashes a brilliant century in 2005 at the oval and everyone says "nothing to prove now. May as well retire". Messi bangs in 50 goals in season, Usain bolt wins a gold etc etc etc
 
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