French Guineas

Yeah, she's improved past Proportional a great deal. Still not convinced she's trained on.

Fantasia not good enough at all.
 
More I watch the replay the more impressed I am with how Elusive Wave travelled. Out of a Rainbow Quest mare; might get the French Oaks trip.
 
Through a form line from Ascot last year RV would have been very close to winning that imo. George Strawbridge must be screwing
 
Marchand D'Or very disapppointing.

Winner is likely to get thrown out.

Thank God we do not have their rules over here.
 
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beardo said:
They got the races the wrong way round....Fantasia newmarket and RV france, oh dear oh dear
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Fantasia would have been beaten where ever she went, she was well over-rated on the back of a visually impressive win over modest horses who wouldn't be much better than good handicappers in a listed time. This was the first time she'd been asked to go through with a sustained run rather than relying on a devastating turn of foot off a modest pace and she's come up short. This was always the much more likely scenario and people who were making some of the outrageous claims for her ability based on a rubbish Nell Gwyn were always headings for the buffers. In truth, she's surprised me a bit and run slightly better than I thought she would
 
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Warbler said:
Fantasia would have been beaten where ever she went, she was well over-rated on the back of a visually impressive win over modest horses who wouldn't be much better than good handicappers in a listed time. This was the first time she'd been asked to go through with a sustained run rather than relying on a devastating turn of foot off a modest pace and she's come up short. This was always the much more likely scenario and people who were making some of the outrageous claims for her ability based on a rubbish Nell Gwyn were always headings for the buffers. In truth, she's surprised me a bit and run slightly better than I thought she would
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Spot on Alun, couldn't put it better myself.

Regarding French rules, they're crap in many ways (Mood Music had no right to 'win' that race) but you can get away with murder over here. I agree with Claude on RUK, there should be a consistent set of rules across Europe for interference.

Lemaire and Soumillon are absolutely top class betsmate and the latter is Belgian. :p
 
So Fantasia finished the same distance behind elusive way as she did behind RV in the Fillies Mile. Taking into account no improvement from either over the winter RV would have been very close to elusive wave in that race surely.
 
Not to mention the way the race was run would not have suited fantasia looking at the times almost 1 and a 1/2 seconds slower than the 2000 guineas this would certainly have caused a horse like Fantasia with a burst of speed to struggle to utilize that which it looked like when Dettori went for her
 
beardo said:
Not to mention the way the race was run would not have suited fantasia looking at the times almost 1 and a 1/2 seconds slower than the 2000 guineas this would certainly have caused a horse like Fantasia with a burst of speed to struggle to utilize that which it looked like when Dettori went for her
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I'm not sure I understand the point you're making. 1.5 secs wouldn't be out of kilter for true run Gp1 mile races between colts and fillies, especially since there's a degree of evidence to suggest that the Poulains was respectively stronger than the Pouliches. So what you've probably got is two truly run races, and a differential between the colts and fillies.

When the chips are down, this was always going to be the most likely scenario. To say that the race wasn't run to suit Fantasia therefore, completely misses the point. It was never likely to be was it? You see this kind of thing time and time again (most notably in novice hurdles) where a visually impressive winner creates a huge impression by winning a race in a fashion which they're unlikely to be asked to reproduce come the big day. Sprinting clear of moderate horses off a modest pace in a Gp3 is no real indication as to how the horse is going to perform when asked to extend and sustain a fast gallop for a longer distance.

If Fantasia backers are looking to blame the fact that a Gp1 race has seemignly been run at a Gp1 pace for defeat, then I'm afraid they're looking in the wrong direction, and should be taking a glance in the mirror for the reason for their defeat.

How many Fantasia backers selected her based on the Nell Gwyn? Most of them I'd have thought. In this trial race she was able to use her burst of speed to good effect. That she wasn't allowed to at Longchamp should have been emminently foreseeable. Why would horses better equipped to see out the trip at a sustained gallop allow her to?

To no small extent you've answered your own question. The race wasn't run to suit a horse with a burst of speed because it was a Gp1. If this is a pre-requisite for her to win Gp1's then her prospects don't look too good. Her chances of encountering a false pace however, which allowed her to use a change of gear (aka Nell Gwyn) would have been higher at Longchamp than Newmarket.

The rationale with Rainbow View is also mixed I'd have thought. You coudl equally say that their respective Ascot runs and the formers performance in the 1000 Guineas meant that Fantasia would have been about midfield in our version. Rainbow View would have been entitled to be nearer to Elusive Wave because she's supposidly the superior horse. Anyone backing Fantasia today therefore must have done so in the knowledge that Rainbow View had disappointed at Newmarket, and was therefore relying on the Nell Gwyn performance rather than the Meon Valley to underwrite their selection.

If you say Rainbow View went for the wrong race, then went you're doing by proxy is revising downwards the respective abilities of the two, whioch means that you'd never consider backing Fantasia today.

To be honest, today's results wouldn't prove anything conclusively, but punters seem to get caught out time and time again in forming favourable early impressions about a horse, and then refusing to accept that others might have caught them up or overtaken them. It defies logic, and although things do get resestablished now and then, more often than not, a horse thats beaten one, will do so again.

Horse A beats horse B and creates a favourable impression that causes punters to fall in love with it. Horse C then beats horse A. Punters set about making 101 excuses for horse A and refuse to back horse C as they've already bonded and pyschologically bought into the idea that horse A is the real deal.

People formed favourable impressions about both Naaqoos and Westphalia. Both were beaten this year by Le Harve and Silver Frost. Instead of saying that perhaps the two new kids on the block were good (and there was grounds for believing so) people sought sanctuary in what they'd already bonded with and seemingly refused to abandon their preconcieved position and re-evaluate things. (It's not a criticism of any one on here incidentally, just an observation, and clearly backed up by the fact that both Naaqoos and Westphalia were sent off at shorter prices than Le Harve and Silver Frost - so anyone who fell for this trap was not alone). The result?

We've seen similar things happen with George Washington's return, Soviet Song's onvious detrioration - people were over-backing horses based on favourable early impressions which they refused to revise. Notnowcato was still being called a handicapper in some quarters after he'd won his third Gp3!!! A similar thing has happened with Tamazirte and Proportional, where favourable early impressions seem to have driven her price despite Tamazirte beating her earlier this year and going on to confirm that today. There were grounds for thinking that Proportional had gone backwards thus and that Elusive Way would represent the Bousacc and that she'd progressed in line with her early season form, yet these were over-looked.

I'm not saying that Fantasia can't win a Gp1, it's just that I would rather be against her, and stille xpect her to be sent off at short prices for her next 3 or 4 runs until such time as punters are prepared to take a step back and re-evaluate perorfmances based on a new foundation rather than longer held sympathies
 
I see your reasoning regarding pace, but I cant have the fact through the form lines between the Ascot race and todays French race that RV would not have been close to winning this race if not at all.
I also note your arguments towards punters and I think you seem to think I'm talking through my pocket however this isn't the case. I backed Tamazirte e/w because of the price differential between that and Proportional and I also backed Silver Frost and Naqoos e/w again for the reasons you stated.
 
Warbler said:
How many Fantasia backers selected her based on the Nell Gwyn? Most of them I'd have thought.
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I didn`t back her but surely that can`t be the case. It`s the overall profile of a horse and his or her form that counts, not just the last race they`ve run in.
Fantasia has the old by Sadlers Wells out of a Darshaan mare thing going on. So the Nell Gwyn over 7f would most certainly not have been right up her alley. I`ve not seen today`s race but presume she was outpaced against superior animals over too short a trip. Luca wants to increase her distance incrementally and is keen on the Diane. If she was mine i`d run her at Epsom without a moments hesitation. The Blue Duster factor in her pedigree is being way over-played.

As for Naaqoos, again it was his overall profile that made him a bet. If his owner thought about it and sent him to a proper trainer he would hopefully get him to settle. He will turn out to be a better animal in time than Le Havre.
 
He added: "In this type of race she would need a mile and a quarter, she has been working very well and I couldn't have been happier with her. Frankie said the ground was good and only blamed the way the race was run.
Cumani's words warbler
 
beardo said:
I also note your arguments towards punters and I think you seem to think I'm talking through my pocket however this isn't the case. I backed Tamazirte e/w because of the price differential between that and Proportional and I also backed Silver Frost and Naqoos e/w again for the reasons you stated.
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That's why I said I wasn't slanting it at anyone on here, as the evidence was in the respective SP's.Clearly there was no shortage of UK based punters sending the more historical form off at shorter prices than the more recent stuff
 
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beardo said:
He added: "In this type of race she would need a mile and a quarter, she has been working very well and I couldn't have been happier with her. Frankie said the ground was good and only blamed the way the race was run.
Cumani's words warbler
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Again, (and not for the first time) I'm afraid I can't really understand what Dettori is saying. Jockeys normally look to blame something else when there's a suggestion that they might be at fault. This wouldn't seem to be a case in point as Frankie seemed to give her every chance, but she wasn't good enough.

What's he saying? The race was run at a mile at a true group 1 pace and that's what done for her?

It doesn't suit her to have to run at a Gp1 pace for any length of time?

Surely any examination of that equals this horse might not be up to winning a Gp1 then, unless the opposition acquiessces to slow it up for her.
 
I am not a big fan of dettori myself but im sure they are hinting at the fact the race wasnt run at a great pace and hence she couldnt burn them off. Therefore if stepping up to a mile and quarter running at that pace would allow her turn of speed to become more telling???
 
So honestly, what is Dettori going to say, Warbs - that the filly was a bit crap ? Jeez, it might be what he thinks but he gave her as good a race as it was possible to ride and yes, she wasn't good enough but he can hardly say so in public, can he!?! He is being paid by the owner, after al and his loyalty lies with him, not the betting public!
 
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