I've had a flick at them and am even more confused by Dettori's assertion that the race wasn't run to suit. Initially I'd assumed that he was complaining about a fast pace, it transpires that he was saying it was a slow muddling pace though. Well so was the Nell Gwyn? The Nell Gwyn was a moderate early pace that allowed Fantasia to accelerate out of it and impose her dominance through class alone at a lower level etc. I'd be surprised if the Nell Gwyn throws up too many winners all season to be honest, and very surprised if it produces anything above listed
With a par that incorproates a group 1 (2.0) a April/ May 3yo allowance (0.8) and a fillies concession (0.6) for an expectation of 3.4. Elusive Way ran 101.29 which is pretty well spot on where she should be (about 1.25L's). It wasn't blistering, but neither was it a stand out performance. To put it in golfing paralance, it was about level par, or one shot under.
Strangely, Fantasia recorded an identical rating (just coincidence) in the Nell Gwyn when she also managed 101.29 but crucially, did so off a slightly lower threshold as this was a Gp3 race and so 'the bar' will have been lowered to 3.8 by virtue of incorproating the group 3 par (2.4) April 3yo allowance (0.8) and fillies concession of (0.6)
I equalise them all off against the all age Gp1 par too in order to level the playing field (it doesn't matter as the same rank order emerges, it's just a different way of expressing the same info). This secondary rating brings the Nell Gwyn winning performance out at 90.70 (and the best of those who finished behind her somewhere between listed and 0-110 handicappers).
Using the same all age line of enquiry for the Pouliches then Elusive Way has regsietered 93.35, and by proxy, Fantasia 91.35. One would normally expect an improvement of between 2 to 4L's from a trial to the target race all thing sbeing equal and Fantasia has improved by about 0.75L's which is a bit below, but wouldn't be enough to really have you crying foul. It was this that led me to believe she might have been caught out by a truer run pace, but it wasn't too far removed from Newmarket as I'd originally thought.
Dettori might blame a modest pace, but this would overlook the fact that these were seemingly the conditions that she'd looked so impressive under when winning the Nell Gwyn, and so was given a chance as things turned out (something Cumani might be acknowledging) but wasn't quite good enough to take advantage of. I'm not suggesting that the pace was indentical, but it doesn't appear to be the case either that there were violent differences, with the Pouliches being run quickly enough for it not to have been a tear up, and also with enough restraint to allow Fantasia to re-produce her Newmarket run if that was run good enough to win at Longchamp. My own figures suggest she's probabaly done just that, and improved slightly, but against better horses it wasn't good enough.
I think Beardo summised that Rainbow View would have won the Pouliches if she'd gone to Longchamp and reproduced her Newmarket run. Well these figures are hardly gospel, and aren't without fault lines, but the tentative indications are that he'd be right (although whether the likes of Elusive Wave might have responded for pressure etc) is a matter of conjecture.
Ghannati's 1000 Gns win was quite a bit faster than the Poluiches and Rainbow View ran 99.17 which suggests that she'd have won at Longchamp, with a degree of comfort. Fantasia by contrast would have been battered out of sight at Newmarket and finished 9th.
The hypothesis was that Strawbridge had them the wrong way round. Well with hindsight you'd say yes. Both were seemingyl over-rated and set tasks they weren't ultimately up to, where as Rainbow View might have been up to winning the easier assignment had they lowered their sights.
Fantasia will continue to have her followers who will be unable to erase the Nell Gwyn from their consciousness, and third in the Pouliches is hardly a disgrace, but I'm reminded of last seasons winner 'Infallible' who was sent of 7/2 second fav for the Guineas, 11/2 fourth fav NTO, and 7/2 and 5/4 fav for the rest of the season before ultimately failing to win again.
The Poulains by contrast seems to have been the equal of the 2000gns and I have Silver Frost marginally ahead of Sea The Stars (by about a neck) so not enough for me to say with any confidence that we'd see the French form prevail etc
I think Desert Orchid might have been lamenting how we'd all changed our opinions of the 3yo's on the back of the Guineas. Well at one level there's absolutely nothing wrong with doing that (and he knows that full well) as the bigger mistake would be adopt an entrenched position and refuse to reassess it. However, I'm still yet to be convinced that the colts (certainly on the back of the Guineas) are that good yet, although I believe the middle distances might be shaping up to be better (unfortunately, as I thought I had a cunning plan to win the Arc) until some pathetically stinghy bookmakers kyboshed me with prices which frankly they should hang their heads in shame at.
Stan James and to a lesser extent Ladbrokes, you are a disgrace
