Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)
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EC1
On a break
purely on time he is a 178/182 ish horse Gearoid
Warbler might back this up...it's a great run thats for sure
different game at cheltenham but at least it shows it's not a bag o crap piece of form it might have first appeared to be
Warbler might back this up...it's a great run thats for sure
different game at cheltenham but at least it shows it's not a bag o crap piece of form it might have first appeared to be
EC1
On a break
its quiet interesting that Albertas RPR's on slow ground are usually about 128...which ties in nice with my speed figure for the winner using collateral form
EC1
On a break
who knows Gearoid
I do know that todays race is very deceptive...lets say Denman had not run...we would have surely been very impressed with the winner then?
if Albertas has run the 128 today...which he seems to do..then it's decent form...and tbh Denmans run isn't THAT bad...even though it looked it
I do know that todays race is very deceptive...lets say Denman had not run...we would have surely been very impressed with the winner then?
if Albertas has run the 128 today...which he seems to do..then it's decent form...and tbh Denmans run isn't THAT bad...even though it looked it
If Denman hadn't run then Madison would not have won by nearly so far (and we might not be talking of him in the terms we are - it would have been just another decent handicap chase).
I do believe the horse is massively improved this year, for whatever reason, and DP did suggest the cheekpieces have helped a lot. Snoopy Loopy is another which has improved a lot in the last year - it can happen, some horses are slow developers (Rooset Booster was one iirc) and some others might have had some niggly little problem which righted itself over a summer in the field, who knows.
Madison was certainly still going away today and although it may be he relished ground that others hated, it was still a very good run - and on the back of another.
I do believe the horse is massively improved this year, for whatever reason, and DP did suggest the cheekpieces have helped a lot. Snoopy Loopy is another which has improved a lot in the last year - it can happen, some horses are slow developers (Rooset Booster was one iirc) and some others might have had some niggly little problem which righted itself over a summer in the field, who knows.
Madison was certainly still going away today and although it may be he relished ground that others hated, it was still a very good run - and on the back of another.
I must say I thought Denman was going to end up being pulled up judged on the way he jumped the first few fences. But he warmed up to it and he just couldn't establish an advantage. He looked rusty to me. If you aksed me if I would back him for a King George, even at the height of his powers, I would say no as Kempton is always going to be too sharp for him. So not sure I'd be a glum about today as everyone else. His jumping in the middle of the race was very good as usual. If Madison hadn't run he won have won well. The winner is a fit horse on an upward curve and the race suited him today. But no reason to think that Denman is "gone". However, they do need to make plenty of use of him again in the Gold Cup to beat the finish out of Kauto. If they are not willing to do that then they shouldn't bother going for the Gold Cup. He proved last year how you beat Kauto so if your not going to do that, what's the point. I reckon they will have him in better nick for the Gold Cup and go hard on him.
Good post Cantoris. But I shall fear for the horse if they do that; and so will they
Maybe I should come clean and say that not only did my dog die of problems following a fibrillating heart, but I suffer from the condition myself. Intermittently, and only under various stresses! ie most of the time I am fine...
Maybe I should come clean and say that not only did my dog die of problems following a fibrillating heart, but I suffer from the condition myself. Intermittently, and only under various stresses! ie most of the time I am fine...
G
Gearoid
Guest
Any implications today on the possibility of running in the Grand National? Pushed out to 12/1 with Madison Du Berlais into 20/1.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think people are taking their cues from PN. If he`d been more upbeat so would they. But the guy has been wrong in the past about Denman, and more than once.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
How do the handicappers go about rating this race?
Only going by TV pictures but Denman didn't look great today. Looked a bit hairy and there wasn;t a hint of a rib on view.
Only going by TV pictures but Denman didn't look great today. Looked a bit hairy and there wasn;t a hint of a rib on view.
EC1
On a break
off Alberta running a 128 as he has before on slow ground
or as said...the best way...from the 4.00 race time
both come up with the same rating...ish
God we have enough problems in Ireland without having to worry about PN being gloomy too!! I didn't hear any interviews with him.
There are two things bothering me about today.
Firstly the fact Findlay went on tv this morning and states that this is basically a public schooling session and last piece of work for the GC said everything. Especially a man that backs hugely on odds on horses and says no connections have backed the horse today. This points to the horse not being fully wound up and ready to go and the GC is the big day. However the worrying thing with this was the reaction of Walsh and Nicholl after the race, especially Ruby he looked like he might cry and how often is it PN is short of words.
I am completely confused by what to make of it. If Denman had been run third it would be easy to say well that's the end, however without MDB he would have smashed the rest of the field albeit a decidedly dodgy one. On the other hand could MDB have improved that much in just over a year for further distance and cheekpieces.
HELP
Firstly the fact Findlay went on tv this morning and states that this is basically a public schooling session and last piece of work for the GC said everything. Especially a man that backs hugely on odds on horses and says no connections have backed the horse today. This points to the horse not being fully wound up and ready to go and the GC is the big day. However the worrying thing with this was the reaction of Walsh and Nicholl after the race, especially Ruby he looked like he might cry and how often is it PN is short of words.
I am completely confused by what to make of it. If Denman had been run third it would be easy to say well that's the end, however without MDB he would have smashed the rest of the field albeit a decidedly dodgy one. On the other hand could MDB have improved that much in just over a year for further distance and cheekpieces.
HELP
Denman disappointed today no question, but it was pretty obvious from the floppy way he jumped that he’s still quite weak. He looked quite spare today as opposed to last season when they built him up and worked it off. He had a lot of strength last season. I would have thought this would have done him the world of good though. Like Cantoris I believe there is no reason to write him off, he was just a lot more short of work than the trainer led us to believe. He’ll obviously have to improve on this to win the Gold Cup and there isn’t much time. But I expect to see a different horse next time he lines up which I hope will be at Cheltenham. Today's performance was nothing to do with a heart condition, simply lack of strong work.
Im going to stick my head on the line and say that Denman wont be running in this years Gold Cup. I have been saying it for a while, i mentioned it to Sunybay and Betsmate at Leopardstown. I think Denman takes a bit of getting fit, they have left him very short on the thinking that they didnt want to go too hard on the horse, and they will struggle to have him right for Cheltenham. There is a race in Auteil that i think they might have had in the back of their minds all along, and it could be discussed over the coming hours and days.
As for Kuato Star, i think he is a wonderful horse, would back him every time for the King George, but around Cheltenham and at the Gold Cup trip i would be willing to oppose him all the time. Thats my opinion on them both, which leads me to Neptunes Collonges. I backed him mid week, i had a conversation with someone recently and they pointed out a few things about the horse, i sat down and looked at it, and decided he was the bet out of the three Nicholls horses. I tooks 13s during the week, and couldnt be happier right now. Im pretty confident that the horse will go off hell of a lot shorter on the day.
Looking at the rest of the market, for possible dangers, its hard to find them. Exotic Dancer is possibly one, but i honestly cant see him winning a Gold Cup, but could run well, the jury is still out on todays winner, although i was impressed with him, i still think there is more improvement needed, cant have Barber Shop, and to be honest, i think Albertas has been dissappointing really this year. Maybe given better ground hel do ok but the RSA form isnt wonderful either.
In summary, Denman doesnt run in the Gold Cup, Kuato doesnt win it, Neptunes Collonges comes home after the last to win going away, having being sent off the 4/1 second favourite.
And just for fun, Notre Pere for the tricast.
As for Kuato Star, i think he is a wonderful horse, would back him every time for the King George, but around Cheltenham and at the Gold Cup trip i would be willing to oppose him all the time. Thats my opinion on them both, which leads me to Neptunes Collonges. I backed him mid week, i had a conversation with someone recently and they pointed out a few things about the horse, i sat down and looked at it, and decided he was the bet out of the three Nicholls horses. I tooks 13s during the week, and couldnt be happier right now. Im pretty confident that the horse will go off hell of a lot shorter on the day.
Looking at the rest of the market, for possible dangers, its hard to find them. Exotic Dancer is possibly one, but i honestly cant see him winning a Gold Cup, but could run well, the jury is still out on todays winner, although i was impressed with him, i still think there is more improvement needed, cant have Barber Shop, and to be honest, i think Albertas has been dissappointing really this year. Maybe given better ground hel do ok but the RSA form isnt wonderful either.
In summary, Denman doesnt run in the Gold Cup, Kuato doesnt win it, Neptunes Collonges comes home after the last to win going away, having being sent off the 4/1 second favourite.
And just for fun, Notre Pere for the tricast.
EC1
On a break
didn't look like a horse that had had a lot of good done to it :blink:
looked like a sad shadow of his former self in the finishing straight...the word totally w*nk*red came to mind
just shows how we all see things differently
Thats what i was saying Steve, will they have time to get him fit enough now though??
If they leave him short and he has a hard race at Cheltenham, it could finish his season and possibly him for good.
EC1
On a break
its like posting in a twilight world on here
I'll try something
I would imagine Denman will be about 1/2 for the Gold Cup after todays excellent win
I'll try something
I would imagine Denman will be about 1/2 for the Gold Cup after todays excellent win
uncle goober
At the Start
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- Oct 10, 2005
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Before the race I felt that against these rivals on these terms only a win for Denman would be good enough to entertain hopes of another Gold Cup victory.
From my view of proceedings he landed a bit jarred over the first and second, and was never travelling with any enthusiasm, usually a feature of his style of racing so I wouldnt be too surprised if some physical problem is found that prevents him running again this season. He was beaten a mile out and showed little willingness to go with Madison du Berlais when that horse began to wind up the pace still further, something you would expect Denman to be doing himself. He did seem to rally a little on the home turn but not for long. I cant attach any significance to it 'being Kempton' as that would not explain the lack of enthusiasm. To my eyes he looked well and should surely have been fit enough to see out the race better, considering what he was able to do in last seasons Hennessy and that he was thought ready enough to be entered for hurdle races a month ago. If anything he looked a bit slow.
I think either he hurt himself over the first couple of fences, or he was reluctant as a result of his efforts in the Gold Cup / heart problem / silverburn problem or he needs 4 and a half miles nowadays.
Either way I can't envisage him winning at Cheltenham next month if he runs.
From my view of proceedings he landed a bit jarred over the first and second, and was never travelling with any enthusiasm, usually a feature of his style of racing so I wouldnt be too surprised if some physical problem is found that prevents him running again this season. He was beaten a mile out and showed little willingness to go with Madison du Berlais when that horse began to wind up the pace still further, something you would expect Denman to be doing himself. He did seem to rally a little on the home turn but not for long. I cant attach any significance to it 'being Kempton' as that would not explain the lack of enthusiasm. To my eyes he looked well and should surely have been fit enough to see out the race better, considering what he was able to do in last seasons Hennessy and that he was thought ready enough to be entered for hurdle races a month ago. If anything he looked a bit slow.
I think either he hurt himself over the first couple of fences, or he was reluctant as a result of his efforts in the Gold Cup / heart problem / silverburn problem or he needs 4 and a half miles nowadays.
Either way I can't envisage him winning at Cheltenham next month if he runs.
EC1
On a break
Either way I can't envisage him winning at Cheltenham next month if he runs.
me neither mate
even after winning today
me neither mate
even after winning today
if you look back at when he started his chasing career he wasn't as impressive as everyone thought he was going to be it was until the rsa at cheltenham that he started to look the real deal.
maybe it is a case that he was just very very ring rusty on a track sharper than ideal going the wrong way round remember again the not so great performances at the beginning of his chasing career were right handed.
maybe it is a case that he was just very very ring rusty on a track sharper than ideal going the wrong way round remember again the not so great performances at the beginning of his chasing career were right handed.