Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

Harry likes to bet right, surely the run given all the negatives was only going to play to his strengths and it has, the price has drifted to about 5/1. When are we going to see this great punter get his cash out move the market and lump the horse because 5/1 about a horse like Denman is great value aint it, especially when you know so much about him and you expect him to come on for the run.

Something don't add up, I expect to hear he is flying at home as usual within the coming weeks *sigh*
 
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ItalianStallion said:
Harry likes to bet right, surely the run given all the negatives was only going to play to his strengths and it has, the price has drifted to about 5/1. When are we going to see this great punter get his cash out move the market and lump the horse because 5/1 about a horse like Denman is great value aint it, especially when you know so much about him and you expect him to come on for the run.

Something don't add up, I expect to hear he is flying at home as usual within the coming weeks *sigh*
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He has plenty of time to commit funds if he is minded to. I can't see his price coming back in until shortly before he actually lines up. They may still not run him of course.
 
Simon said:
Even though he never had such a condition, would the drug still be prescribed?
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Eh? Of course not, why on earth would any vet prescribe a drug known to have dangerous side effects if it weren't needed?

But he did have the condition, and it's a matter of record that the drug was prescribed, as you can find online with very little googling
 
Article published in the Guardian on 2nd Feb, written by Greg Wood :

Denman's heart is not an issue, vets insist

• Gold Cup winner's heart condition more serious in human
• Experts agree that problem is unlikely to recur
Never mind all the "will-he-won't-he?" surrounding Tony McCoy and his pursuit of 3,000 winners. The question that will preoccupy true punters this week concerns Denman, the Gold Cup winner, and his delayed reappearance at Newbury on Saturday.
Should we recall the way Denman dismantled Kauto Star at Cheltenham in March and back him for the Gold Cup now, before the price vanishes? Or oppose him, at Newbury and at the Festival, on account of the heart problems that have kept him away for months? After all, you would not back a human athlete to win an Olympic gold on the track if you knew he had a dodgy ticker, would you?
This makes Dr Celia Marr's opinion on the subject particularly interesting. Marr is neither a trainer nor a heavy-hitting gambler, but the senior vet who directed Denman's treatment at Rossdale's equine hospital in Newmarket, and she offers a fascinating insight into Denman's "heart op" last year. There wasn't one.
"There was no operation at all, because there wasn't any need," Marr said. "The idea seemed to take hold that it was like an episode of Casualty, that we stopped his heart and then went off for a cup of coffee before starting it again. His condition was one that can require an operation if it does not respond to treatment with drugs, but in his case, he did respond, so there was no need to operate.
"The condition that he had was atrial fibrillation, which is quite common in racehorses, and also quite common in middle-aged men, too, so people may well have heard of it in relation to Tony Blair and Sir Alex Ferguson.
"But it is more serious in humans. In horses, obviously it means that the horse can't perform appropriately, but if it is picked up early, as it was in this case, it often responds very fully to treatment. It's very much either there or it isn't and when it's gone, it's gone."
Rather than being a sign of inherent frailty, the problem suffered by Denman may in fact be an indicator of his talent as a racehorse.
A number of great Flat racehorses, most famously Eclipse, Phar Lap and Secretariat, had abnormally large hearts - at 22lb, Secretariat's was more than twice the average size. A large heart can, however, also make a horse more prone to conditions such as atrial fibrillation, according to Dr Lesley Young, one of the country's foremost experts on equine cardiology.
"The better the horse, especially in National Hunt racing, the bigger its heart is likely to be," Young says.
"Basically, what's happened over the last two millennia is that we've bred a cardiovascular monster. Breeding for speed and endurance in the thoroughbred has bred a heart and cardiovascular system that is almost too big for itself. Big horses are an atrial-fibrillation accident waiting to happen.
"Denman's not the first National Hunt horse to suffer a problem like this and he certainly won't be the last, but the vast majority will suffer it once and then never again.
"You can't say that that is absolutely the case, but the longer a horse has been normal since it happened, and in his case it's been three or four months now, then the greater the percentage chance that the heart will stay normal."
The agreement among the experts that Denman's heart condition is unlikely to recur could be all that some punters need to step in and back him for the Gold Cup at his current top price of 7-4. He was, after all, significantly shorter at the start of the season and has been matched at just over evens on Betfair.
But it also gives us all a chance to pause for a moment and consider the extraordinary power lurking in every thoroughbred's frame.
"The bottom line is that any big horse can have an abnormality in its heart rhythm at any time," Young says. "There's a percentage chance that any horse in a race on any given day will have an atrial fibrillation, never mind Denman.
"With the set-up at Paul Nicholls' yard, where they work up a steep hill, it was quickly obvious that something wasn't quite right, but if a horse is trained in Newmarket you can find that its heart will just beat a little faster to make up for the fact that it's not as efficient as it should be.
"Then it's only in a race that it will become apparent that the horse is like a car that's firing on only two cylinders.
"What they're losing is their turbo-charge. A young horse can have a peak heart-rate of 240 beats a minute, and while it's age-related and National Hunt horses would be a bit less, it is still huge compared to us and a huge range, too, when you think that it will start out at about 26 beats per minute."
It has been nearly 11 months since Denman won the Gold Cup and some National Hunt fans have started to doubt whether he will return with his talent undiminished. Yet his big heart, at least, seems likely to be doing precisely what it should.
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I put up several links to veterinary and scientific articles on the condition and its treatment IN HORSES over a week ago, in particular that by Susan Eades titled "Equine Cardiology".

They go into some detail regarding the fact that no-one can be CERTAIN that the condition will not return under racing pressure until the horse races; and however long a horse has been 'clear' no-one can be sure the fibrillation will not recur under MAX pressure (of the sort any horse is subject to in 3-mile G1 or a race like the GN). They have other interesting points to make as well, including on the known side effects of the very drug with which Denman is known to have been treated (Quinidine sulfate, as is usual in this case). There is plenty more in the same vein online if you care to look for it.

I'm pleased to see that PN is coming round to my way of thinking, that it will take until next season to get Denman back to his best - I just wish they would accept that, and pull stumps now... However I'm also pleased to see that if he is to run he will have the services of the jockey who gets on best with him, namely Sam T
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...AME=racing/09/02/18/RACING_Nicholls_Gold.html
 
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Headstrong said:
I'm pleased to see that PN is coming round to my way of thinking, that it will take until next season to get Denman back to his best - I just wish they would accept that, and pull stumps now... However I'm also pleased to see that if he is to run he will have the services of the jockey who gets on best with him, namely Sam T
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Yes I think it's pretty clear that Denman won't be running to 185 this year (if he lines up), but it is also pretty clear he'll run better than 160.

"I don't know if we have the time to get him back to that level, and it might be that he'll run a nice race in the Gold Cup and another summer off will get him back to how he was."

175 would normally be good enough and he seems hopeful he can get him back to that sort of level. At the moment he of course favours Kauto - but I don't particularly like that one in this race (despite him already managing a victory and a runner-up spot). Having said that hard to know what to back against them, MdB and Neptune are plausible but not compelling.
 
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Headstrong said:
I'm pleased to see that PN is coming round to my way of thinking, that it will take until next season to get Denman back to his best - I just wish they would accept that, and pull stumps now... However I'm also pleased to see that if he is to run he will have the services of the jockey who gets on best with him, namely Sam T
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A huge sigh of breath raised itself above the red brick stables of Ditcheat this morning.
 
I think if Denman doesn't return to a much higher level, and Cheltenham continues to show Kauto short of his best, then Barber's Shop is the most likely.
 
Unexposed, improved for stepping up in trip. It's hoping for a lot at best, but in a very open race, his price factors in the required improvement.
 
for what my very humble opinion is worth - I dont think BS is good enough.

as for the rest of the comments about hearts - I really cant be bothered any more, and I think i need a change of career,as I have obviously been trained completely wrong and know nothing....
 
Barber's Shop's target is the Ryanair, surely?

Nicholls was very downbeat about Denman in yesterday's interview. Along the lines that he may not have had enough time to get him ready.
 
michael_o said:
Barber's Shop's target is the Ryanair, surely?

Nicholls was very downbeat about Denman in yesterday's interview. Along the lines that he may not have had enough time to get him ready.
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See Headstrong's comments earlier.

BS may have an easier job beating Kauto than Voy Por though... could be a close shave (...coat).
 
Headstrong said:
I put up several links to veterinary and scientific articles on the condition and its treatment IN HORSES over a week ago, in particular that by Susan Eades titled "Equine Cardiology".

They go into some detail regarding the fact that no-one can be CERTAIN that the condition will not return under racing pressure until the horse races; and however long a horse has been 'clear' no-one can be sure the fibrillation will not recur under MAX pressure (of the sort any horse is subject to in 3-mile G1 or a race like the GN). They have other interesting points to make as well, including on the known side effects of the very drug with which Denman is known to have been treated (Quinidine sulfate, as is usual in this case). There is plenty more in the same vein online if you care to look for it.
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He never had a bleeding heart condition!!
 
They can't think much to the chances of Barber's Shop, or they know that he's going for the Ryanair, because Mr Geraghty has already agreed to ride Star De Mohaison.
 
I'd put him away till next season and give him a serious test early on, if he's up to it ie. first 3 then keep going but it not it's probably best to retire him.
 
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