Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

From Paul Nicholls today:

""Denman won't mind decent ground, but I honestly don't know how he will run. There's no reason not to run him, but if he tanks off like last year, he won't get home. Sam (Thomas) will have to ride him as he finds him."

If the horse was truely 100% why couldn't he get home?
 
its a simple one this year surely

KS - not the same horse at Cheltenham - mistakes guaranteed - won't break that superb stat about winners taking their crown back:p

Denman - totally gone at the game..think Nichols has two Denmans- the one from last year has been retired

Neptune Collonges - plodder and will make mistakes

Madison De Berlais - massive improver - THE WINNER :p

forget the rest

easy game ;)
 
Think Star de Mohaison has the capabilities to run a massive race being hunted around by Timmy. Barber Shop looks a ridiculous price, cannot see at all how he's shorter than 25's.
 
davidjohnson said:
Think Star de Mohaison has the capabilities to run a massive race being hunted around by Timmy. Barber Shop looks a ridiculous price, cannot see at all how he's shorter than 25's.
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I agree, think SDM is the value now. Drying ground is a big plus for Kauto though.
 
playing around with these big priced ones is clutching at straws imo..big priced horses rarely win GC's...I doubt if BS or SDM represent any value simply because they probably wouldn't win 2 out of 100 runnings between them

money down the drain imo

but you pays your money etc
 
EC1 said:
playing around with these big priced ones is clutching at straws imo..big priced horses rarely win GC's...I doubt if BS or SDM represent any value simply because they probably wouldn't win 2 out of 100 runnings between them

money down the drain imo

but you pays your money etc
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Yes because there are never big priced placed horses in Gold Cups....
 
you didn't say place..you said value ...as in winning the race

unless the field is below par its a waste of time looking outside the first few in the betting..re winning

I think tomorrows race is one of the better renewals..which is why trying to find 20/1+ winners looks a waste of time to me

personally with a race like the GC..I want the winner..not some crummy place bet...I can have them 365 days a year
 
EC1 said:
you didn't say place..you said value ...as in winning the race

unless the field is below par its a waste of time looking outside the first few in the betting..re winning

I think tomorrows race is one of the better renewals..which is why trying to find 20/1+ winners looks a waste of time to me

personally with a race like the GC..I want the winner..not some crummy place bet...I can have them 365 days a year
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Given that you have just said Kauto Star is not the same horse at Cheltenham, that Denman is not the same horse, that Neptune Collonges is a plodder that makes mistakes...I think there is every reason to look elsewhere. I don't generally back 25/1 horses without covering the place.
 
Those horses can still beat the rags here even with negatives though Gal

When I read folk saying such and such is value..I normally assume they mean to win

my mistake
 
I'd love to see Kauto win but can't bring myself to back at such short odds.

I've gone for a speculative ew on Halcon Genelardais because he just oozes guts and it could be a war of attrition out there tomorrow which he'll relish better than most.
 
I remember one of my then biggish bets being on a horse that came second to a 100/1 winner of the GC- (Norton's Coin):(

I followed Knowhere throughout his early career winning and losing large amounts.I would get a lot of satisfaction if he won but it would mean a sub-standard race
 
Alberta's Run is another who would make sense as a winner in hindsight - Sun Alliance winner, King George 2nd, 2 from 2 over fences at Cheltenham. Of course he's bombed out in three of his four runs this season... but you get 16/1 as a result.
 
Andy Thornton at the East Garston preview pointed out that there are quite often long priced rags in the GC which run into a place - like Sir Rembrandt; but only in what he called "stayers' Gold Cups". He thought this year would be another, like last year, as Hales would again ensure Neptune C set a good strong pace throughout - that being his only chance of winning. Andy said that given the likely way the race would be run, Miko de B had a decent chance of running into a place at a big price (and gave good reasons why). I took some 26 the place on BF.

He also remarked interestingly that KS's win 2007 was not a "stayers GC" and that they were queuing up at the top of the hill and falling over each other, so he wasn't sure KS would be able to win this year again, as he needs a sprint finish. Another point made: all the panel but esp both trainers and both jockeys insisted it was pointless listening tp PN on his 4 horses' prospects as it would be the owners deciding tactics and giving the instructions!!
 
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Exotic Dancer looked back to his best last time out and unlike last year it looks like he's had a trouble free preparation for the race. I think he's got a major chance today.
 
EC1 said:
do you think?

loves cheltenham
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It's 40/1 without the first 3 or 33/1 without all the Nicholls runners at Hills, looks like a decent bet for me, as you say loves Cheltenham and the stable's had a couple of winners.

In a year with question marks over many, it'll do for me.
 
Albertas Run Each Way for me..

I've laid Barbers Shop in the place market.....

Really want Kauto to win though, true class should come to the fore
 
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