Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

PRICEWISE2008 said:
If is the big word there though SteveM..I for one wouldn't be paying to find out " if " he's fit and ready. I still reckon they should put Denman away till next season, that is assuming connections wouldn't be keen to run at Punchestown:confused:
Click to expand...

That's something only those closest to him will be able to call. If he runs, and it looks like he will now, take that as the best sign you can get. Everything else if just guessing.
 
SteveM said:
Indeed so. That's what we're speculation on. It seems to me it is turning in his favour even before this latest announcement though, rather than against him. Parts of the market look to have reacted wrongly to me (I expect this to fairly quickly reverse).
Click to expand...

It sounds like he is coming to himself...but would connections like another couple of weeks to the Gold Cup? You bet they would and that is not the type of prep he needs against Kauto Star let alone Neptune Collonges.

The style of race Denman will need to produce (taking it up a long way out) will need him not to be just coming to himself but 110% fit and raring to go.

Allowing him to run is not the best sign we can get.....have seen loads of horses turn up at Cheltenham in the hope they will recapture their best form but fail to do so.
 
Last edited:
Everything else if just guessing.
Click to expand...

It sounds like there's plenty of guessing going on from connections too, to be fair. I don't mean that as a slight either - I think everyone's working off a lot less evidence than they're comfortable with.
 
It's where he is on Friday week that counts. He has reportedly been making daily progress for the past two weeks now. He may just get there in the form of his life.

I tell you what... I'm not betting against him at this stage and may shortly be going back in.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
It sounds like there's plenty of guessing going on from connections too, to be fair. I don't mean that as a slight either - I think everyone's working off a lot less evidence than they're comfortable with.
Click to expand...

Of course there is... that's what's making it interesting. 7s is just too big as the market will quickly realise.
 
I'd rather go with the evidence of Denman's racecourse return, rather than how he has schooled at home, to be honest.

Backers basically need him to make c30lbs of improvement from the AON, and I can't make the leap of faith required to suggest that's possible in such a short space of time - especially so, given the nature of his performance at Kempton (bereft of all his usual enthusiasm).

I genuinely hope the horse does return to his best, but I couldn't bring myself to back him.
 
Okay... just away for a bit organising my war chest.

Happy to report that I'm back in for Denman for a total of £450 each-way in two hits at 7/1. That's dragged my average price up on him from around 2s.

Each-way prices about Denman in the Gold Cup!... 11 months ago you would have thought someone is having a laugh. Someone undoubtedly will be... let's hope it's me.:D
 
Denman has joined Voy Por Ustedes and Punjabi as my three value bets of the meeting... although I'm not such VPU is still value at the moment.
 
I said straight after Kempton and I still think now, that it would not surprise me at all to see Denman bounce back and win next week.

As has been well documented, I thought the horse looked like there was something left to work on, he looked ring rusty and the track didn't suit.

I backed him a couple of days ago at 6/1 NRNB and I think that is a cracking bet. Like Steve, I may too go in again.

It's good to hear the positive reports coming out of Ditcheat now; let's not forget that although we're all speculating on his health, how well he is etc, so are they - and they are connected to both horses so much more than any of us that I would expect that they're all going to be worried as well, not least after his run at Kempton, and would be reluctant to be so bullish. The days and weeks leading up to a race, not necessarily even a big race, are fairly fraught for any connections - riders, grooms, trainers and owners alike, jockeys to a lesser extent. You're hoping the race goes ok, you're hoping they run well, you're hoping they jump well, you're hoping they're fit enough, you're hoping they're as well as they are showing you at home, you're hoping they'll come home in one piece - and you're hoping that they get there without treading on a stone, or getting cast, or something daft like that. I'd say from my experience that it's far less common to be going into races looking more in the negative side with a few nagging doubts and fears rather than being bullish about the run.

I just hope the big horse strides into that paddock next Friday the way we know he can, and has his fight back.

As a small aside, when it comes to KS's run last year, if everyone knew the horse was wrong, why was he heavily backed (and I mean that with no exaggeration; he was heavily backed by decent money) on the morning of the God Cup?
 
Last edited:
What if Denman beat a below par Albertas Run on softish ground that he hates and Kauto beat an inform Albertas Run on good ground he likes?

I don't see where Nicholls say if you take the winner out he's still beat Albertas Run 25 lengths yes Paul he may have, but is this an Albertas Run who's out of form and running on ground that he doesnt like?
 
I think what were saying is that we want Denman to return to something like his old self and some of us don’t see too much of a reason why he shouldn’t do that. What I’m astonished at is those who are insisting he shouldn’t take part. His handlers will not send him out if he can’t do himself something approximate to justice in a race like this. He was plainly undercooked last time,

I take heart in the fact that Nicholls turned New Little Brick around in a week, perhaps he can do the same for Denman in a month.

The race will be poorer without him.
 
SteveM said:
I think what were saying is that we want Denman to return to something like his old self and some of us don’t see too much of a reason why he shouldn’t do that. What I’m astonished at is those who are insisting he shouldn’t take part. His handlers will not send him out if he can’t do himself something approximate to justice in a race like this. He was plainly undercooked last time,

I take heart in the fact that Nicholls turned New Little Brick around in a week, perhaps he can do the same for Denman in a month.

The race will be poorer without him.
Click to expand...

You seriously think New Little Bric has any relevance to Denman? You think both cases are comparable?

Again I am surprised that you think connections running the more means the horse I something like his best. Regardless of how undercooked he was at Kempton, his connections that day still thought he only had to turn up to win...so they were wrong on that occasion as well. Like I said, we have seen countless occasions at Cheltenham where connections run their stars in the hope they might regain their spark and as many times as not they disappoint.

Whatever he does between now and the Gold Cup, the fact remains that last week connections still were not happy with the horse. So since Kempton he has only started to show more zest since Saturday just gone. I do not think it is that surprising that some people think the horse is giving the signals that yes he is improving but that the horse is clearly telling connections he needs more time.

I remember you saying Steve that after Kempton what the horse needs is tons and tons of work. If that is the case and if that is what he has been getting, the horse has clearly been doing heavy work since Kempton while not in the best frame of mind or condition. Whatever way you look at it that cannot be an ideal preparation for a race such as the Gold Cup. Given the current forecast the ground looks almost certain to ride better than last year’s so that will be a greater test for him again.
 
Not comparing the two horses. Simply making the point that Nicholls seems to have the ability to do what it takes to turn horses around when he needs to.

Whatever they are doing with Denman appears to be working.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
Okay... just away for a bit organising my war chest.

Happy to report that I'm back in for Denman for a total of £450 each-way in two hits at 7/1. That's dragged my average price up on him from around 2s.

Each-way prices about Denman in the Gold Cup!... 11 months ago you would have thought someone is having a laugh. Someone undoubtedly will be... let's hope it's me.:D
Click to expand...

Could this be a 'New Approach' moment?
 
Okay didn't mean to be petty, just thrown by it. Sure they were wrong, but considering what he did in the Gold Cup I'm forgiving them that one... I don't think they'll make the same mistake twice.
 
Mr Findlay was hardly glowing about the horse this morning in the RP - he didn't think his current price was value.

I think there is a great deal of wishful thinking going on about this horse. The evidence of Kempton , the immediate reaction afterwards and Harry's comments suggests he has " gone" - it would be an awesome training feat to somehow recover his form by GC day - I don't suggest that it is impossible - just seems very unlikely considering the see sawing comments about his work and schooling.
 
Ardross said:
Mr Findlay was hardly glowing about the horse this morning in the RP - he didn't think his current price was value.

I think there is a great deal of wishful thinking going on about this horse. The evidence of Kempton , the immediate reaction afterwards and Harry's comments suggests he has " gone" - it would be an awesome training feat to somehow recover his form by GC day - I don't suggest that it is impossible - just seems very unlikely considering the see sawing comments about his work and schooling.
Click to expand...

Findlay is a media whore. While quite entertaining at times he seems to struggle to identify one end of a horse from another. He is looking for good things in the betting markets and goes to the poles in being either wildly optimistic or pessimistic – either way his pronouncements are barely worth hanging on. I’m much more interested in what his other owner has to say.

There seems a lot more than wishful thinking about Denman. His last piece of form was obviously wrong and there seem few alternatives to him. I don’t like Kauto in the Gold Cup (despite him winning one), Madison just doesn’t quite sit right for me, Exotic Dancer has had his chance and Neptune who’s just about the most credible alternative (as Suny has been insisting all season) is a bit one paced… So who am I going to back?... The one I have backed. The best Cheltenham Gold Cup winner I’ve seen since Arkle (who I did see win his third Gold Cup).
 
I agree that Findlay is a bit too fond of seeing himself in the papers, although i do like hearing what he has been up to all the same. I think the Denman issue has been talked to death. Well find out in ten days or so. I think the horse when at his best is the best stayin chaser in the business, but i dont think they have the time to get him back to that level in time for next week. They are naturally reluctant to pull him out at this stage. They are on a hiding to nothing really, pull him out now and it will be why havent they dont that after his last run, they have put people away etc, run him in the Gold cup and he pulls up, or runs below par, and its they never should have ran him.

Its a very difficult position to be in, and i think that findlay has not helped things by being so prominant in the media all along. If the horse was with any other connections, more media shy etc, then maybe pulling the horse out would be easier to do.

I still maintain the horse wont count come next week though.
 
I think he's sure to run better than he did last time. I'm not at all confident he'll win (as I was last year), but that's why I've backed him with my money, rather than ask anyone else to contribute or ask what they think.

Sometimes it comes down to what you know in your boots with perhaps a bit of faith.
 
Last edited:
I think pretty much the same as SteveM.

Basically, what I was trying to say about the build-up of the race in my previous post, is that I'm not surprised negative reports have been coming from Ditcheat. After all that has happened to Denman this year, after his problems and especially after his run at Kempton (when he was expected to run far better than he did) you could only expect more pessimistic and cautious reports to emerge. I'd guess that Team Nicholls are hopeful more than anything else and reluctant to get too confident - even inclinced to pessimism - due to the nature of the beast; most people in racing are a little bit supersitious and in a situation such as this you could hardly expect bullish vibes to be emanating from the place. It is good to see more positive comments emerging over the past week or so though.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top