Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

betsmate said:
Euronymous, Shadow Leader, Steve M, Halmahera... Your boy took a helluva beating!

:D

One great horse and one very good one. As was always suspected. </smug>
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Ah, but he ran a hell of a lot better than the many of you lot who wrote the horse off completely!!

Funny you should say that TDK, we were only saying in the car on the way home that Denman was ridden completely differently and looked after today rather than anything else. Even the commentary said that he wasn't being ridden with the usual aggression.

Still, can't take anything away from Kauto Star - very impressive performance. For more than two years I've doubted he stays the GC trip in a truly run race and thought he had done well to win a Gold Cup thus. He didn't do three bad for a non stayer today!
 
Denman ran a whole lot better than I feared he would and I was delighted to see it. I also thinkhe is much better off with Sam Thomas!

And as for Kauto - well he was at the very top of his game - I have never seen him look so good physically.
 
It was clear Denman was not going to be ridden like last year - PN made it clear he would never get home if he was ridden like that . The idea he wasn't ridden to win however is laughable .

He ran a blinder he was just beaten by a better horse .
 
Would it be mischievous to point out the similar distance between Denman and Neptune last year and this year? I'm sure it's just a coincidence...
 
Kauto what a champ and what a great performance he put up today.

Denman- IF Nicholls got him fit initially for his 1st race, there wouldnt be all this saying he did well under the circumstances and what a marvellous traing performance.

I think Nicholls undercooked him this season for his 1st race. ( he obviosuly blame everything bar himself) and left him with too much work to do given the space of time between Gold Cup date and his re-appearance.

Nevertheless a great race.
 
Two great horses, and yes it was a privilege to be there

Denman ran a magnificently brave race considering the cloud he'd been under and I too am sure we shall see the 'proper' Denman again next year - as we did with Kauto this year compared to last. I felt sick to my boots all through the race race last year - and never had a real bother this year: he jumped superbly, and he was very alert and taking everything in but also very relaxed pre-race. Let's hope we get them both in top notch condition at last in 2010. It might be too much to hope, but we can dream all year...

I doubt Denman was asked for the ultimate, as he was last time - and he was led back, his head down at shoulder height as he passed me close to turning off the track. He looked quite done up - but had every right to be tired.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Would it be mischievous to point out the similar distance between Denman and Neptune last year and this year? I'm sure it's just a coincidence...
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That was my first impression of the race - and who's to say it isn't true? Neptune Collonges was ridden with a bit more restraint this year and given more of a chance to win IMO than last year when he probably went a touch too fast early on.

If so it put's Kauto's rating through the roof though, well over 190.
 
I dont think Kauto posted today a better performance than Denman last year,
also think he did i better in the King George than here.
 
Even after Kauto's outrageous achievement you'll still get doubters tryign to dampen on his parade which is just beyond belief, I don't know what more the horse has to do to convince people, any suggestions?
 
Ardross said:
It was clear Denman was not going to be ridden like last year - PN made it clear he would never get home if he was ridden like that . The idea he wasn't ridden to win however is laughable.
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The notion that any Gold Cup horse isn't ridden to win is laughable. However, he certainly wasn't ridden to have the best possible chance of beating Kauto Star (clearly by instruction). If he had been he would have pressed on swing out onto the second circuit - exactly as he did last year.
 
Don't forget both PN and Ruby thought KS the better horse last year, and quietly expected him to win. But for whatever obscure reaosn he just 'wasn't right' - Pat Murphy who's a good judge said last week he'd have laid him last year til kingdom come after seeing him in the paddock; and his run told the sotry.

I feel today has vindicated those of us who always had faith in the horse and were convinced he didn't run his race in 2008. Both he and Denman are awesome animals, but so different it's hard to make a comparision. Just pray they are both well and sound next time... Meanwhile KS's place high in the Pantheon is secure at last, so I'm content!
 
trackside, I think the owners and trainer were genuinely concerned that they pushed him too hard last year, and not being certain he is back to his best yet or even fully fit, were very concerned not to push him over the edge yesterday. They knew quite correctly imo that to push him to the limit this time would have possibly cost him his life - the fact he was dismounted and led in looking pretty shattered, shows he was pushed far enough for this season. Next year will be another story!

PS Interesting piece here from Marcus Armytage for Sunday's paper, with some new quotes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ho...or-brave-comeback-in-Cheltenham-Gold-Cup.html
 
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One for the time buffs out there.

2008 6m 47.84
2009 6m 44.95

Taking into account the difference in going, which works out the faster race?

Warbs may have already answered this, apologies if he has.
 
Both Kauto Star and Denman will be ten next season. Probably their last season at their very peak...time to enjoy them while they are around.
 
Colin Phillips said:
One for the time buffs out there.

2008 6m 47.84
2009 6m 44.95

Taking into account the difference in going, which works out the faster race?

Warbs may have already answered this, apologies if he has.
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comparing the foxhunters with the GC last year and this.. shows that on the clock ..last years GC was a better time performance than yesterday

I don't use other distances over the sticks but I'm sure Warbler will come to a similar conclusion using all the race times

i didn't think..by eye..that they went too fast yesterday early on

..a bit similar to when KS won 2 years ago ..that day KS won in a time 6 sceonds faster than the foxhunters...yesterday just under 10 seconds faster...whereas Denman beat the Foxhunters by 13 seconds in his year
 
sunybay said:
I rate Denman 5 pounds higher for last year nce than this years Kauto win.
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That would tie in with rating the race via My Will and Roll Along running to their seasonal RPRs.

However, can we really accept that Kauto Star was only 1lb better yesterday than then?

Can we really accept that Exotic Dancer was 10lbs below his best?

Can we really accept that Neptune collonges was nearly a stone below his best?

We'd need to accept those fndings if we believed it. I can't.

If we take Exotic Dancer as running to form, Denman was 4lbs (on my figures) below last year, Kauto was 2-3lbs better than ever and Neptune was 4lbs below his best. I'd certainly be more comfortable with that outcome.

If we say Neptune ran to the same mark as last year, Denman has equalled last year's run and Kauto has hit 192, while Exotic Dancer has confirmed a generous reading of his win in Ireland this season (via Glenfinn Captain running to his OR). This doesn't strike me as being impossible.

Take the winner out of the race - a favourite ploy of mine when trying to gauge form that might just be outstanding - and we'd be saying Denman has beaten a classy horse that excels at the track and has run almost to the pound with Neptune and Knowhere on last year's form. We'd be hailing Paul Nicholls a genius for getting him back after Kempton told us he was gone. We've got the principals from the top staying novice races from Cheltenham and Aintree last year well beaten.

I remember Best Mate's Gold Cups. I remember willing him home but being aware that those in behind weren't great horses. In truth, they were the Snoopy Loopys and Halcon Genelardais of their races. And some of them were placed.

I believe yesterday we saw the best Gold Cup for a generation both in terms of the quality of the field in depth and the winner. A mile out I was marvelling at what a race I was witnessing. At the end I was just gobsmacked at what I'd just seen.

I understand that there will always be people prepared to pick holes in the form. I do it a lot myself. I even said you could "drive a bus through Binocular's form". But I'm prepared to stick my neck out with this form. I can't see myself ever witnessing a better Gold Cup.

Even if both Kauto and Denman turn up next year seemingly 100%, there has to be the chance not many will see the point of taking them on. This year there were the incentives of Kauto maybe not being at his brilliant best on the track and Denman not being well enough, to make others want to turn up in numbers to try and steal it. It might not happen next year.
 
IF Denman had never run at kempton ...but come straight to GC...what would the rating for KS have been I wonder without the memory of that run erased from our heads.
 
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Great post DO! Fascinating isn't it? We have witnessed something extraordinary, I'm sure.
PN is right: KS has something which is magical
 
Colin Phillips said:
One for the time buffs out there.

2008 6m 47.84
2009 6m 44.95

Taking into account the difference in going, which works out the faster race?
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I've occasionally used the Foxhunters to get a handle on respective performances, but I certainly wouldn't use it in isolation to try and form an opinion about the merits of a Gold Cup, although I do believe you can use it the other way round and try and assess the ability of the hunter chaser through the gold Cup winner. The spread of times are just too violent to make it meaningful.

To come back to the question at hand though it's actually quite interesting and at the risk of altering the emphasis the evidence leads you into another line of enquiry.

Due to the cancellation of the Wednesday card in 2008, Friday's featured a host of races that wouldn't normally appear, which at one level means you've got more races to set variance off and should theoretically improve your accuracy. On the other hand, it also means you're not comparing like with like.

If I used my normal method I'd set 2008 at -3.38 and 2009 at -0.87. Now if omit the Foxhunters altogether given that it throws up some wild discrepancies and omit one of the other slow times it comes out at -3.05 in 2008 and -0.80 in 2009. The overall difference in race time is 2.89 secs, of which I'm attributing 2.58 secs to the difference in going. My pars are worked out at mile aggregates though, so at Gold Cup distance this would be worth approximately 8.38 secs, which means the 2008 renewal was faster by 5.49 secs.

Now this is just one way of doing things, but there is an altogether different approach which involves simply concentrating on races that featured on both cards (ignoring the hunters chase). This makes very interesting disection, and actually points towards Zaynar being the horse to note from the card:ninja:

I'm half aware that the RP have been mucking about with their standards of late and for the time being I'll just need to check things.... more to follow on an edit
 
Thanks Warbler. Xaynar was bred to be class flat horse, so he should be fast! - it seems he took to hurdles immediately, but is apt to idle - does it too easily I guess
 
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