Gold Cup 2009 (was: Denman)

It may seem utterly bizarre, but my view is that SteveM and SL are both right.

I didn't see Denman in the flesh on Saturday but when I saw him on the television the first thing that struck me was that he looked stringy and weak in the neck and that impression continued when the rug came off and it was possible to see more of him (although his bum looked quite well-muscled from one angle!). I've looked at some of the photographs from the meeting since and my impression from those is still that he looked thin, stringy and weak in the neck and lacked the sort of depth generally that I've associated with him. On the other hand, though, he looked flabby. One specific picture I've seen shows how much spare flesh he had around his tummy. All in all, he reminds me (and there is no surprise in this, really) of a person who has been very ill, has been on a regime to build them back up but they have put on flab and not muscle. Sometimes, with people who have been very fit and are very ill, they stay like that - it remains to be seen if Denman can get back to what he was.
 
Can I delete all of them as being appropriate, Betsmate?!?

Kauto Star was not injured - he sustained a bruised foot a month before the Gold Cup; you and I both know that is very unlikely to have caused complications that would have stopped him from winning the race. Had there been complications or consequences from the bruised foot in question the horse wouldn't have been running at all since he will more than likely have been lame, or would have pulled up lame halfway round.
 
Cheers, Muttley - when I talk about a horse being burly, I'm not talking about how strong or not his neck looks, I'm talking about him having bit of a belly and not being tight around that belly area. After all they don't tend to get flabby in the neck!!!

Anyway, I'm sure everyone's well aware of how I thought the horse looked by now!
 
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Shadow Leader said:
Can I delete all of them as being appropriate, Betsmate?!?

Kauto Star was not injured - he sustained a bruised foot a month before the Gold Cup; you and I both know that is very unlikely to have caused complications that would have stopped him from winning the race. Had there been complications or consequences from the bruised foot in question the horse wouldn't have been running at all since he will more than likely have been lame, or would have pulled up lame halfway round.
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You could, as I have no evidence to suggest that any of them are true. But the fact that he was beaten by the end of the first circuit suggests quite clearly to me that something was up.

There were plenty of rumours doing the rounds afterwards (none of which have been substantiated) but we have perhaps gained a deeper insight into Paul Nicholl's personality this season.

If you asked me which theory is more likely to be correct. A sub-par performance after an interrupted build up, or Denman's relentless galop breaking him by half-way (which was the theory put forward on here by plenty) then I'd pin my colours to the first one.
 
Muttley said:
It may seem utterly bizarre, but my view is that SteveM and SL are both right.

I didn't see Denman in the flesh on Saturday but when I saw him on the television the first thing that struck me was that he looked stringy and weak in the neck and that impression continued when the rug came off and it was possible to see more of him (although his bum looked quite well-muscled from one angle!). I've looked at some of the photographs from the meeting since and my impression from those is still that he looked thin, stringy and weak in the neck and lacked the sort of depth generally that I've associated with him. On the other hand, though, he looked flabby. One specific picture I've seen shows how much spare flesh he had around his tummy. All in all, he reminds me (and there is no surprise in this, really) of a person who has been very ill, has been on a regime to build them back up but they have put on flab and not muscle. Sometimes, with people who have been very fit and are very ill, they stay like that - it remains to be seen if Denman can get back to what he was.
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VERY good post Muttley. Thanks! :)

I agree too. I thought his bum looked rather nice, but he did look somehow 'diminished' from what I remember of the great strong neck and bullish attitude. However his tummy area did look weak, and kind of flabby. I think looking at him from behind was deceptive .... as was just looking at him from the front half of his body.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Denman's form conclusively shows that going right handed doesn't suit - he tried to run out at Wincanton as a novice hurdler (and apparently tried again when having a racecourse gallop there) and posted a less than impressive performance at Exeter in a novice chase when long odds-on.
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Just adding a little balance to that post by saying that whilst he clearly prefers to go the other way, he also tried to run out at halfway during the SunAlliance Chase.
 
Just the run at Exeter, which was 2m1 ish, plus whatever his p to p success was, dunno about irish p to p tracks.
 
I'll rephrase on behalf of betsmate.

He looked in trouble by the end of the first circuit, at which stage you could reasonably expect to have had no concerns about his eventual finishing position.
 
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Walsh said: "I'm disappointed but it's a horse race. The best horse on the day won. I was struggling past the winning post on the first circuit when Sam picked it up. I just couldn't get there. Well done to them all.


Denman has gone a good old gallop, but he was going no quicker than they did in the Tingle Creek last season. I always thought Kauto could travel but he didn't today."


It was only because Denman was tiring that Kauto's class allowed him to get so close. He was below-par. I've little doubt.
 
betsmate said:
Walsh said: "I'm disappointed but it's a horse race. The best horse on the day won. I was struggling past the winning post on the first circuit when Sam picked it up. I just couldn't get there. Well done to them all.


Denman has gone a good old gallop, but he was going no quicker than they did in the Tingle Creek last season. I always thought Kauto could travel but he didn't today."
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He wasn`t taken out of his comfort zone in the Tingle Creek as it wasn`t run round Cheltenham. I so wish the horse had stayed on his feet in Newmill`s QM because he`d have got badly outpaced in that and this wouldn`t even be a debate.
 
I can well believe Kauto Star had an interrupted preparation - indeed it's very likely he did after his well documented bruised foot, even if he was said to be cantering within a few days. I wouldn't say he was necessarily unfit though, but all of it combined (the aftermath of the Ascot run including the bruised foot incident) most probably did contribute in some way to his running. I was mainly refuting the sometimes repeated claims that Kauto Star was injured when he lined up for last year's Gold Cup.
 
So anyway, i think Kauto Stars Cheltenham performances were better than Denmans right handed performances mesen, therefore Kauto the better horse int it.

(head butts corner of table until dead)
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Kauto makes mistakes going both ways.
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Since coming to this country he has made 21 mistakes..I counted not fluents as well in that

RH = 7 mistakes
LH = 14 mistakes

He has run 10 times RH = 0.7 mistakes per race
He has run 7 times LH = 2.0 mistakes per race
He has run 3 times at Cheltenham and made 9 errors = 3.0 mistakes per race.

I think he makes more mistakes going left handed Gareth...and he certainly makes more at Cheltenham than anywhere else
 
I'm very glad Sam is firmly back in the frame - and esp nthat Denman is not being considered for the GN this year.

I think I was the first to suggest that Denman is put away for this season and brought back in September - see Post 350 :p I'm glad Galieo and others whose opinion I respect agree with me!

Meanwhile, I'd be interested to know why on earth people who have presumably no personal experience of fibrillation of the heart, nor a dog which has died of it, seem so certain that a horse's physiology is so entirley different that there is no chance that:

1) the fibrillation can never recur under pressure; and
2) the horse didn't remember it happening when it started galloping again, and has no fear imprinted in its body of feelign like that agin

I find either proposition very unlikely, frankly. And that's after experiencing the condition myself; doing a lot of research on it, AND talking at some length to my vet about it. I find a few people's repeated attempts to pour scorn on what I'm saying a bit odd!

With regard to Kauto Star last season -
He was injured when he won at Ascot, and had pulled muscles (I'm not sure if that was the full extent of the problem, in retrospect I don't think it was). He presumably missed quite a bit of training because of the problem. The bruised foot came *later*, and almost put him out of the race, but he'd been doubtful or at least 'behind' before that

I had it on the word of three different people in a position to know, that KS was 'not himself' before the race; that he didn't eat up and was pacing his box, both before *and* after the Gold Cup; and that he was very off colour for a while after he got back to Ditcheat. Anyone who thinks he was beaten purely 'on merit' in the GC is imo fooling themselves. As I said at the time, I knew he was beat halfway round the first circuit. And I understand that staff (INC at the Cheltenham stables) were quite forcibly told not to discuss nor to divulge anything about the horse post-race.

Warbler: I know very well thank you what the purpose of using stats inc in racing is; I find them useful myself in certain races, esp the GN, and was winning large sums in that race thanks to following stats long before the media latched on!

My remark: < EC1, that stat is worthless, for one reason because the premise that horseraces always run true to stats is demonstrably false >
was in response to EC1's seeming intention to rely on what I would see as a 'false positive' - not a comment on stats per se! As should have been bleein' obvious in the context :D


Sadly I can't watch ruk re-runs on my laptop and I never saw the ruk coverage of Denman's race at all. I was basing my remarks on a re-run quite late in the Ch4 coverage, and it was the only time that clip was shown. It had MdeB coming over the winning line and it them panned back to DCenman coming over the last - he was far to the right of the frame and the angle was not quite head-on - it was about 20%.

It clearly showed a cork-screwed jump and it struck me "Wow!' as I certainly hadn't noticed it in any of the other coverage. I'll have to wait til I can watch a re-run before saying anything more (if ever) on the subject. But - unlike my memory for names! - my visual memory is very good. And I don't see how I could have mistaken him for another horse - there was no other horse in the frame except in the far distance! For now that will have to remain one of life's little mysteries...
 
EC1 said:
He has run 10 times RH = 0.7 mistakes per race
He has run 7 times LH = 2.0 mistakes per race
He has run 3 times at Cheltenham and made 9 errors = 3.0 mistakes per race.

I think he makes more mistakes going left handed Gareth...and he certainly makes more at Cheltenham than anywhere else
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EC1 - Cheltenham is the championship course and any horse running there esp at the Festival is likely to be up against the best opposition and under much more pressure than in any other races. So it may well be possible to demonstrate that a lot of horses have made more mistakes there than at any other course.

And btw I do agree that some horses have a decided bias - as we mostly all do - for left or right: on a turning course horses usually lead with the leg in the direction they are going, and if they are uncomfortable leading with say the right leg, they won't enjoy a right-handed course
 
Doesn't anyone think that maybe we've all over-reacted to Denman'ss Kempton defeat?

For a start, he wasn't totally tailed off was he? He was well beaten sure, but this was on soft ground where distances can be exaggerated.

Furthermore, anyone can see that he hated the track; he was on the wrong leg most of the way, jumping out to the left and hanging that way as well.

And didn't he run like a horse badly in need of the race? I thought it was quite impressive how he and the winner quickly sealed the race at the end of the back straight - around seven out - he then just shaped like a horse that blew up?

Desert Orchid ran 20lb below his best when going left handed when he was fit - isn't is feasible that an unfit Denman would run 30lb+ below on his return?

He wouldn't be the first Gold Cup horse to run a shocker at Kempton and then win at Cheltenham - remember Looks Like Trouble pulling up with a circuit to run in the King George - and you can't help but feel that if he wasn't surrounded by so much expectation, we'd be saying he ran an OK race.

I thought it was very interesting how positive John Francome was about the performance on Channel 4 afterwards and I can't believe Nicholls had him fully wound up on Saturday - isn't this the tank who is so hard to get fit?

Maybe I don't have such a good paddock eye, but to me he looked fine on Saturday in the flesh. What concerned me more was that he was very quiet going round the paddock beforehand whereas I recalled him being a shade more on edge last year.

Either way, when he moved up to take it up going in front of the stands he looked fine to me.

I'm amazed at the apparent keen-ness there is out there to write off Denman after just his one run (and how quickly the Kauto Star nutters - you know who you are - jump out of the darkness to stick in the knife).

I for one won't be surprised if we see another bold run at Cheltenham.
 
Headstrong said:
With regard to Kauto Star last season -
He was injured when he won at Ascot, and had pulled muscles (I'm not sure if that was the full extent of the problem, in retrospect I don't think it was). He presumably missed quite a bit of training because of the problem. The bruised foot came *later*, and almost put him out of the race, but he'd been doubtful or at least 'behind' before that
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I've no intention of trying to pick apart your points for sport HS, so please don't take this the wrong way. I am intrigued, however, by references to Kauto Star's injury which I've only read in your posts. My recollection of the Ascot situation is that Kauto Star was lame when reloaded on to the horsebox and it was announced later the same day that he had a bruised foot. There was no mention of pulled muscles and an update the following day suggested that he'd needed to have pus drained from the foot, and would subsequently miss several days work. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
 
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