Grand National 09

Any more support for Big Fella Thanks and i think Ruby will be riding him rather than the currently out of form Snowy Morning or any other of the other possibles.
 
I love it when there's a lemming rush onto a favourite for the GN which I don't fancy LOL
It's usually AP's mount, Gawd knows why - I suppose occasioanl punters think he has to win it one day... The Fav rarely wins, but did last year - so going on stats which some so like to follow, that means the Fav won't win for at least 6 years now ha ha.

I'll stick to my usual GN stats which always bring me out a bit up at least, and sometimes get the winner... and 3/3 placed horses... but much nearer the time
 
I've always thought My Will would be the type to jump well over the National fences. The trip is another matter, however. The Becher Chase next season would probably be more realistic if he took to the course.

I don't think I'd back Comply Or Die for a repeat.
 
Just looking at the race, it's certainly a classier entry than last year.

2008 - Top weight Beef Or Salmon (11-12) was allowed in off a lenient 159 with Celestial Gold, Turpin Green (both 157) and Hedgehunter (156) also weighted to be tempted to run. Hedgehunter was the one that stood his ground,meaning the bottom weight was off 137 (10-7).

2009 - Top weight Exotic Dancer gets in off a not-quite-so tempting 166, balanced slightly by a maximum weight of 11-10. O'Neill has a decent looking squad in the race and I can see connections being tempted to keep ED in to help the others. Cloudy Lane, you'd imagine, would be a definite runner so the weights are unlikely to go up any more than 8lbs, so you'd also imagine anything rated below 139 not making the cut, making the bottom weight this year likely to be on 10-5. If Exotic Dancer stays in, a 19lb spread would still see the bottom weight being 10-5 but that's unlikely. Last year the last one to make the cut was number 82 or 83 in the original weights. If that pattern is repeated we're looking at those currently on 9-9 getting in but having to carry 10-0. At this stage I'd be looking for a stayer with a bit of class carrying as close to 10-0 as possible.

I've identified a few horses that are weighted to beat Comply Or Die's form in last year's race and can see me starting to punt them soon. (I've already taken big odds about one of them but want more on.) I suspect once I get through all the weights the list will expand to five or six.
 
I've now managed to get on all I want on the one I've identified as possibly the best handicapped in the race.

Battlecry (N Twiston-Davies) is the one. Check its form in its two races at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals last spring. It has all the hallmarks of a horse being campaigned with the spring in mind and has been bought by Trevor Hemmings.

I wouldn't be surprised if this one ended up around the 10/1 mark nearer the race.
 
Miko De Beauchene ran a cracker under top weight at Haydock. I note he`s trading at 60 on Betfair - suggesting he`s an unlikely runner.

Anyone know why King John`s Castle hasn`t run so far this season?
 
He responded well to treatment on his tendon Euronymous

“King Johns Castle is in good form at the moment,” said County Kildare-based Moore.
“He made a good recovery from his problem in November and we agreed that he went back into exercise.
“He’s been doing some good work in the past few weeks and he’s taking it well so we feel that he’s justified an entry in the Grand National.
“The vets gave him a good report and he’s now back in full training, so we are hopeful that he can get to Aintree in April.
“I would imagine that he would have a couple of runs beforehand, more likely over hurdles because it’s an easier programme for him.
“He had a great run through in the 2008 National and I would be hoping for more luck in this year’s race.
“It’s a long way away at the moment but we are optimistic of getting him there.”
Click to expand...
 
I thought Ollie Magern ran a decent enough race uin the Racing Post chase on Saturday with the Grand national in mind, having had a look through I haven't been able to find any trainer reaction for him to the weights, but I did find this which might indicate they're aiming to run. Story
 
Feel that Big Fella Thanks looked very promising for the GN. Happy with my bets on him and may take a few more although concerned that Ladbrokes seem to be out on their own with 25`s. Hills only 14`s.
 
At the risk of repeating myself I thought Snowy Morning ran a nice trial on Saturday.This season is all about one race for him.25s looks decent value.
 
I know someone who's been saying it since last year, Luke. The same person was saying the same thing about Comply Or Die for over a year. No inside info or anything. Just a 'feel' for these things.
 
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