Grand National Weights

6 out of the last 7 winners have all had previous experience of the track.

This is a significant trend, which would obviously discount the likes of Beef or Salmon and Snowy Morning.

At the weights Bewleys Berry and McvKelvey would appear to have outstanding chances.
 
I stick with 3/4 sets of stats, which are rarely bucked: Age, weight, a win over 3.2++, and previous at the course [not nec winning but enjoying the fences and if poss standing up]. It's served me well over the years. Sadly everyone else has cottoned on now so I have to back antepost to get my value!
 
Originally posted by Irish Stamp@Feb 6 2008, 10:37 PM
There is that - he looks well weighted but there have been a good few of those in the past.
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Indeed. And a few often emerge following Cheltenham and they don't all win but they often do (Miinnehoma, Rough Quest etc as opposed to Master Oats and Garrison Savannah).
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Feb 7 2008, 12:46 PM
I stick with 3/4 sets of stats, which are rarely bucked: Age, weight, a win over 3.2++, and previous at the course [not nec winning but enjoying the fences and if poss standing up]. It's served me well over the years. Sadly everyone else has cottoned on now so I have to back antepost to get my value!
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That's as sound an approach as you'll get but they also need to be well handicapped because if they're not they simply can't win anyway, unless it ends up as bad as the year Red Marauder won.
 
I am like Headstrong in terms of deduction. The National is one of the strongest races for solid trends all year. The year Red Marauder one he came out on my research as one of two who could win. Of course I got lucky but it was nice to have a 33/1 winner with £50 on the nose!

I have twice come unstuck with David's Lad and Bewleys Berry, the year's they fell when cantering, but in the main the race is my most successful betting wise. Hedgehunter was higher in the weights than was ideal the year he won, and I was on It Takes Time e/w at 22/1.
 
I always back three or four e/w and usually get the winner in those - tho not last year! 2 of my picks were placed though, so I made quite a bit, tho 2 fell [Bewleys and Simon].

PP almost always go 5 places on the day so well worth a look if you fancy an outsider
 
Originally posted by useful@Feb 7 2008, 01:42 PM
6 out of the last 7 winners have all had previous experience of the track.

This is a significant trend, which would obviously discount the likes of Beef or Salmon and Snowy Morning.

At the weights Bewleys Berry and McvKelvey would appear to have outstanding chances.
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Until very recently horses beaten in previous Nationals had a poor record too - Hedgehunter and Amberleigh House bucked that trend.

Winning form at 3m+ is also a help.

Horses with blinkers/visors have a poor record - think Earth Summit was the first for a good few years (30+ possibly) to win wearing the headgear.


I've come unstuck with Merry People in the race before - was absolutely cantering when he came down two out the first year (rank outsider that year) and in a couple of subsequent starts he ran well enough in the race, still can't believe the commentators didn't spot him till he fell.
 
I thought Snowy Morning ran an excellent trial today and I am surprised that there has been such little reaction from the bookmakers (he can still be backed at 10/1+).

Maybe it's because more was expected from a horse that was heavily punted into 11/4 2nd FAV for today's race - but, on what he had previously acheived, that was probably a very skinny price anyway.

OK, he didn't exactly set the World alight but the fact is that, given the chance to adjust the weights now, the handicapper would probably be giving him an extra 8-10lbs - so he goes to Aintree looking very nicely treated.

In terms of his National profile, he has plenty going for him - so I reckon he is entitled to be quite a short price favourite, even at this early stage.
 
I think Snowy Mornings handicap mark will be a lot less attractive after today-as Relkeel said he should get between 8 &10lbs.He might be nicely handicapped for Aintree but you really have to doubt his jumping.
 
Did the fact that Hedgehunter was the outsider of this field suggest that everyone acknowledged, and accepted, that this was just a prep race for the National for him, and that basically he wasn't there to win the race?
 
I've done a few of my figures and at this early stage I can't help thinking the 10/1 on offer about Snowy Morning is 10/1 about him having things go his way on the day, assuming he gets there. The Cheltenham form with Denman is proving sh*t hot and I think he's a blot.

I'll bet connections of several other Irish hopes are pretty sick at the weights their horses have been allocated. The handicapper has rated the Thyestes on the basis that Point Barrow ran to his best form, which means a huge hike for the likes of Chelsea Harbour.

I've just watched the 2007 National again. Great race (helped by the fact I was on the winner, third and fifth).
 
Yes, but ever since the days of Maori Venture and Rhyme N Reason, which I had top rated but didn't back on account of their tendency to blunder, I've never let iffy jumping put me off a National fancy. Sometimes the race wakes them up.
 
For me Cloudy Lane is one of my strongest fancies for many years in horses for this race . I've been backing him in his recent races to build a pot to back him for this. !0-8 is a lot less than he normally carries which combined with a flat track will convince him he is on holiday. Jumps economically and soundly ,trained by a stable specialising in the race.

I put him up on here for his race at Cheltenham and he had to show terrific spirit to hold on up the hill. I won a lot on that race and am prepared to risk that kind of sum on him for this which will make this one of my largest ever bets bar those that for which I have info not generally available. Most will go on nearer the day in case of mishap and because I am not sure of the additional penalties if he wins in the interim.
There are others I fancy but I consider this a rare opportunity to win large at decent odds and I don't think he will carry anywhere near this competitive weight next year.
 
Handicapper wasn't overly leniant, Bobbyjo. Always thought he was a bit of a soft-ground plodder myself.

I actually thought Snowy Morning jumped fairly well in the main yesterday. Obviously, one mistake like the one he made three out would probably finish him at Aintree and it has to be a worry, but he looks very well handicapped indeed.
 
I was taken by the Tom Mullins quote that Chelsea Harbour may never be rated this low again which was somewhat odd. They've even given him a Gold Cup entry. Strikes me as a horse they've aimed quite high with so he must show them a fair bit at home. He's been well punted in a few races too and hasn't delivered though so I wonder about him...
 
Originally posted by Tout Seul@Feb 11 2008, 11:24 PM
Most will go on nearer the day in case of mishap and because I am not sure of the additional penalties if he wins in the interim.
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Am I wrong or isn't it the case that there are no penalties after the publication of the weights?

I've now looked at almost all the weights down to 10-0 ( I reckon there's no chance of anything running from out of the handicap) and I have to say the race looks generally much more competitive than last year.

I still think Snowy Morning is the one to beat but the nature of this race, which prompted an adaption in my approach to rating it in recent seasons, means that there are several from 10-7 down to 10-0 on marks that would have won at least half of the last ten renewals.

He's disappointed badly in two runs this season but if they can get Bob Bob Bobbin back to his best form of last season, which saw him earn a tilt at the Gold Cup, he has to look seriously well weighted with just 10-1. Likewise Captain Corelli on his old form.
 
Anything below 10st 4 has no chance of getting in I wouldn't think Mo, in fact I have feeling the cut-off could even be as high as 10st 6.
 
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