Grand National Weights

Originally posted by Melendez@Feb 14 2008, 01:51 PM
Without meaning to jinx the horse, of any horse that has faced the Grand national fences for the first time over the years, surely Beef or Salmon is the least likely to come to any harm.
Click to expand...
Beef Or Salmon had a sky-high reputation since he won his first point-to-point at Tipperary,but for all his nine wins over fences he has often seemed a bit vulnerable in his jumping, especially when he took a hideous somersault at the third fence in Best Mate's 2003 Gold Cup.

Hourigan was quoted afterwards saying "It's true he has looked a bit uncomfortable at times,but that's because he was. He has had this bad back and would be stiff when he came out of a morning and would not always let himself go on the track.

That fall left Beef Or Salmon, who was still a novice at the time, with a back injury that has troubled him to some degree ever since.Hourigan blamed the fall for for his jumping in the 2004 Gold Cup although he stayed on strongly up the hill, while in 2005 he pulled up looking as if something was amiss.



Not a horse to consider putting in a Grand National imo if you care for its welfare.
 
Originally posted by Diamond Geezer@Feb 21 2008, 09:16 PM

....... Not a horse to consider putting in a Grand National imo if you care for its welfare.
Click to expand...
Agree totally - I've never been a particular fan of the horse but that is very good news indeed :)
I hope he runs well on familiar territory and then maybe can call an end to his career in one piece if he doesn't run well.

DG, that's a good point about the nature of the fences and it's why for the GN I prefer a horse which has been over them in some way before. They can take horses badly by surprise. It's a shame they removed the drop fences at Haydock, will lead to more accidents imo
 
Originally posted by sunybay@Feb 22 2008, 10:18 PM
If Snowy Morning wins tomorrow,
does he get any penalty for the Aintree race?
Click to expand...
No & he didn't win but is still only 14's for the National!! Was reported to have made a respitory noise too but was sound after the race. Too risky IMO.

Anybody for Comply or Die after yesterdays Eider win? Goes against the grain though as he as no course experience,will probably run in blinkers & no horse thats won the Eider as gone on to win a race from the last 10 years of it being run.
Won nicely though & could be weighted nicely.
 
I can't imagine a horse which has come in the first three in the Eider winning a GN, even tho the race wasn't run on Saturday in the usual bog. If you want to use it as a prep race for the big one, you hunt them round surely?

I loathe seeing horses run in the GN in blinkers too - tho Amberleigh did didn't he? - but he was hunted round at the back and always given lots of space around him. I think it's well dangerous - remember those horses in blinkers which ran down the fence and took out AP the only year he looked like winning? If they'd had side vision they would never have run down the fence like that

I do hope Snowy M's connections will take the hint from yesterday and stop thinking about the GN this year. I really do.
 
What a run in £38000 warm up!! Don't what if anything wrong with Mr Appointment but with the extra weight difference he doesn't seem likely to beat Cloudy Lane at Aintree.
I am on at some very good prices and added today's winnings to the stakes.
 
I was seriously tmepted to back CL the other week when I realised he was probably very well in compared with future handicap marks but wondered how much shorter he could get at this stage.

I didn't get the chance to do any of today's races but I'm not at all surprised he won.
 
I had Cloudy Lane to beat Mr Pointment today :rolleyes:

:D

Not looking so good for the GN, unless PN has left a lot to work on - which would of course be a good idea
 
Different race, different day. I think the National fences bring Mr Pointment alive, and provided he's sound after today's race, wouldn't be worried about it. How well did Red Rum run in his national preps? :suspect:
 
Nicholls interviewed on RUK at Newbury was putting forward the idea that the horse had bled, although he hadn't yet spoken to his assistant (Dan Skelton) who was with Mr. P. at Doncaster.

He was basing his idea on the fact that the horse had been in and out with his form in the past, and ever since he had had the horse he had this idea that he might be a bleeder.

I don't know if any news has broken since.
 
Stated in today's RP that the horse bled. His run yesterday was too bad to be true, he was bang there one minute then fell in a hole completely.

It has to be said I have no idea why the horse was ridden to complete the course after he stopped so suddenly - in my view he should have been pulled up.
 
I thought he jumped poorly from the get go, contrary to the commentator, being pottery into a good few, and awkward away from his fences. He did jump the one fence after the stands well twice. Never looked to be completely happy to me.
 
Celestial top weight for Aintree

Celestial Gold is the new top weight for the Grand National after 150 entries were cut to 125 following the first forfeit stage. The weights have gone up 2lb following the defection of Beef Or Salmon, which puts Celestial Gold on 11st 12lb.

His trainer David Pipe has a total of nine left for the 5 April steeplechase.

Cloudy Lane, trained by Donald McCain Jnr, is the favourite with some bookies following his win in the Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster.

Trainer Peter Bowen has the most entries remaining, with 11, and this includes last year's John Smith's Topham Chase winner Dunbrody Millar.

Among the 31 Irish-trained entries is Willie Mullins' charge Snowy Morning, which has been installed as second favourite.

Mullins could also run 2005 National hero Hedgehunter, who finished ahead of Snowy Morning in the Bobbyjo Chase.

The price for the 12-year-old is in the region of 20-1 and a win for Hedgehunter would mean the horse becoming the first dual winner of the race since the legendary Red Rum in the 1970s.
 
Been having a wee look at the weights for this fecker today. I reckon D'Argent is worth a shout at around 40's in this. Feasibly weighted, stays all day (despite what Pricewise says - 7 of the last 10 were proven at 3m4f+), recent performances have been decent enough in the context of this race and I can certainly see him thereabouts.
 
Horse OR RPR DO
Hedgehunter 42 156 154 177.5
Hi Cloy 12 156 158 164
Knowhere 22 155 168 172.5 p
Mr Pointment 35 155 166 161.5 p
Ollie Magern 25 155 166 171.5
Turko 23 154 164 170 p
Madison Du Berlais 70 153 165 169.5 p
Billyvoddan 23 151 157 179.5 ?
Knight Legend 23 151 164 174.5
Simon 42 151 165 176.5 p
Opera Mundi 70 150 163 166 p
Ungaro 35 150 163 171 p
Iron Man 22 149 164 174.5
Fundamentalist 23 148 163 -
Butler´s Cabin 49 147 161 163.5
Slim Pickings 34 147 161 169.5
Chelsea Harbour 34 146 153 165
Vodka Bleu 49 146 163 172
L´Ami 25 145 167 179.5
Snowy Morning 42 145 172 179.5 187.5?
Bewleys Berry 49 144 167 171
Contraband 22 144 - - (173)
Mckelvey 21 144 160 167
Joaaci 98 143 166 176.5?
Point Barrow 19 143 154 174.5
Cornish Rebel 22 142 132 169
D´Argent 49 142 168 174
No Full 72 142 152 175
Baily Breeze 34 141 152 176.5
Bob Hall 25 141 163 177.5t
Cloudy Lane 35 141 178 192.5 p
King Johns Castle 27 141 161 -
Mon Mome 25 141 147 177.5
Always Waining 95 140 169 181
Cornish Sett 100 140 160 177
Naunton Brook 21 140 164 176
Over The Creek 23 140 162 171 p
Patsy Hall 25 140 162 176
Royal Auclair 25 140 163 172
Royal County Star 12 140 158 181?
Tumbling Dice 41 140 156 181
Backbeat 62 139 164 174.5
Comply Or Die 42 139 174 180.5
Idle Talk 23 139 162 176.5
Kelami 42 139 168 179.5
Milan Deux Mille 35 139 146 181.5
Nadover 17 139 162 169.5
Black Apalachi 34 138 153 174 p
Homer Wells 12 138 154 182.5
Patman Du Charmil 23 138 165 180
Philson Run 49 138 163 173 p t
Ursumman 189 138 156 180
Ardaghey 23 137 152 179.5
Dun Doire 19 137 146 -
Joes Edge 23 137 126 173.5 (177.5)
Cool Running 12 136 164 181
Drombeag 22 136 123 172
Dunbrody Millar 50 136 155 169
In The High Grass 14 136 154 -
Longshanks 357 136 127 173 t
Ossmoses 35 136 154 179

My rating is the last one. On the scale 176 could win a normal National. Anything on that mark or above has to enter calculations as well as anything likely to improve to or past that mark.
 
Interesting ratings DO

I think Chelsea Harbour has been underrated.....a non trier on more than one occasion, including last time at Leopardstown in particular.
 
BJ, re CH, I'd had him on a higher rating with a '?' on earlier form but had revised my figures downwards. I must check again why!

To put the above ratings into perspective, these were the top ratings last year:

Jack High 187.5 Fell 1st Bechers
Homer Wells 185 ? No show
Bothar Na 184 p Ran well for 1 circuit
Simon 181.5 p Going well when fell six out.
Ballycassidy 181.5 e(189.5) Losing place when UR 2nd Canal Turn
Silver Birch 181.5 ? Won
The Outlier 181.5 (p?) Prom early, weakened & UR 19th
Zabenz 181 Leather broke early
Graphic Approach 181 Bhnd when fell 22nd
Naunton Brook 181 Led till 17th, PU
Joes Edge 181 (185) PU lame
Tikram 180.5 (187.5) UR 1st
Monkerhostin 180 (184) Ref 7th
Liberthine 180 +p 5th, wknd fr 2 out
McKelvey 180 2nd,
Slim Pickings 179 3rd,
Bewley’s Berry 178.5 In lead when fell 2nd Bechers
Le Duc 178 +(184) UR 6th
Philson Run 177.5 4th
Point Barrow 176 p Fell 1st
Dun Doire 174 +p No show
Kandjar d’allier 174 (178) Fell 8th

Last year the ‘norm was 178 and these are the ones I’d reckoned had a chance, allowing for improvement where appropriate. The group (about half the field) included the first five home, who were 21 lengths and more clear of the rest.

Notice that Philson Run, a recognised ‘thorough stayer’, weakened almost as badly as doubtful stayer Liberthine. He hadn’t made the norm, while Simon may well have been placed, so well did he appear to be going.

Some of the others could have been fancied to stay and it has to be appreciated that some horses just don’t take to the fences.
 
I nailed my colours to the mast on this some time ago and seen no reason to change my mind. DO's rating clearly give me further encouragement but @ 6/1 Cloudy Lane is now too short a price even in a modern, less demanding, National.

Other than laying off for a profit, which I will not be doing, that leaves me looking at savers. I can't get away from Comply or Die, another horse that like Cloudy Lane has not been over these fences. Young McCain makes the point that he deliberately avoided Aintree as a good performance there would generate a significant rise in the weight to be carried. A reasonable argument which prompts consideration as to what weight increase Aintree experience merits. Like Cloudy Lane, Comply or Die is campaigned to win every race and not hunted round to get a low handicap mark. Pipe trained he will be fit and will like the going which will hopefully include 'good'.
I also like Point Barrow.
 
Back
Top