Grand National Weights

Hedgehunter unfortunately isn`t anywhere near 10s on Betfair or i`d lay the arse off of him. This years Monkerhostin.

Good luck all.
 
Originally posted by betsmate@Apr 5 2008, 02:06 PM
I haven't really had chance to have a proper look at all of the runners and generally shy away from getting involved in Summer Jumping staying handicaps, but based on the excellent write-ups on here I will chuck a few quid at the following:

Philson Run
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
Cloudy Lane

Cheers for those that have done the work that I am too lazy to do.
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1st, 3rd and 6th. You guys need to pull your fingers out.
 
Well I got my profit on places with SP and KJC but I still feel sick as a dog!
Didn't back COD at all tho he was on my shortlist entirely due my D Johnston phobia
And now I'm finding it hard to enjoy the aftermath :laughing:
 
Actually enjoyed that race! Murphy was brilliant on the winner and was glad to see him win it for David Pipe.

Slim Pickings stopped to a walk, its hard to crab King Johns Castle after finishing second in the National but you just knew he wouldn't find as much as the winner after the last while Snowy Morning ran an eye catching race in third. If Ruby was on him he might have finished closer again. Imagine Mullins will have this race in mind again for him next year.
 
I'll settle for the forecast.

Had a small bit on Snowy as well.

Backed 7 horses, and 4 were in first 6, inc 1-2-3

just seen tricast was £2,200. God the cat is about to get such a kicking
 
Very well done indeed Chris and you were right about a lot of the horses which hadn't done a trip getting round! Good ground helped

A bit gutted for Simon as I think he might have made it Andy T had stlll been up. roll on next year
I'd dismissed Snowy Morning as I wasn't sure about his wellbeing this season, but will be another live contender next year.

Most of all I'm really uspet esp for the Bowens about McKelvey, what an unlucky horse he was.
RIP
cry
 
Had a very small each way bet on KJC but not disappointed with the result - it's much better than I normally do.

BBC coverage poor compared to some of the stuff they've put up recently but I did enjoy the shots of the horses jumping the Chair during the re-run, the side on ones that were about fence height - just shows how much scope and power the horses have got when they jump well :luv: love it!

Sadly Mckelvey lost - any news of any of the other runners?
 
Silky smooth ride by Murphy, and the horse jumped brilliantly. I was glad to see him kept wide, he doesn't look the sort to really enjoy being in the thick of things too much.

Cloudy Lane didn't appear to stay.

For me, nice to have the winner, first since Minnehoma, it all seemed so easy in those days!
 
Originally posted by Wassermusik@Apr 5 2008, 03:31 PM
world class SteveM!
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Thanks. I try my best.

This has proved to be a very profitable race for those investing in a small group of horses that can jump, stay and do not have too much weight (it's one of my favourites as a betting proposition, it's the only race where half of those taking part can't win). Despite the framing of the weights favouring the high weights this year it has again proved a real struggle for those set to carry much over 11 stone – 10 9, 10 11, 11 1 being the weights carried by the first three home, who have gone clear. The five I ended up backing included the first three and the fifth and sixth, so I’ve more than doubled a fairly substantial stake, my biggest loser being Cloudy Lane (who probably didn't fully stay).
 
So do I - and I had 2 of the first 4! and but for DJ phobia would have had 3... otherwise had to URs

My theories held up however, none of the 2.5 milers [although a few finishing] coming in the first 6
I won't be changing my picking methods next year :what:

As Steve said: << This has proved to be a very profitable race for those investing in a small group of horses that can jump, stay and do not have too much weight >>
 
Well done Steve;

I basically discounted high weights easily as well, and when you look at the bottom end you can only really see 6 or 7 with a feasible chance.
 
What's going on Luke, I haven't been following it. Something to do with recalcualting BSPs?
 
Originally posted by LUKE@Apr 5 2008, 05:51 PM
Complete shambles on betfair.My profit as they crossed the line is currently replaced by a hefty loss.
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It takes them ages to settle the National bets, particulary ante-post ones.

I fecked up big-time again. Saw Bewleys Berry as the only danger to the winner turning in and asked for 6.4 IR. It wasn`t matched so i went in again and of course failed to cancel the earlier bet so lost twice the stake - a nice profit turns into a miniscule one.
 
Well thanks to my "DJ phobia!!!" I enjoyed having the winner of the national, but also backed the second win :(
Well done to DJ and the Pipes. The best :clap:
 
Originally posted by trudij@Apr 5 2008, 09:15 PM
that'll be the same DJ phobia that made her write what she did about the Eider... :P


I just think its nice to be right for a change!! :clap:
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It's great for those who backed the horse, he ran and jumped superbly!

I did make the proviso at the time as that as the Eider hadn't been run in a bog it might not have the same bottoming effect this year as it often does - good job too! No-one wants to see horses bottomed then put in another 4+m race, but he wasn't. COD still looked full of beans as he came in today, no head hanging with exhaustion as you sometimes see - and the trumpets gee'ed him up a bit too! He's a very handsome fellow I must say.
 
I see Jason Maguire said Cloudy Lane ran a great race. I have to admit it was a big disappointment to me. He seemed well there for the first circuit but dropped back quite far before plugging on past tired horses. I can't believe that was the same horse that hammered a top field at Doncaster but maybe he left Aintree behind there.

Great run from Snowy Morning, my other main bet, and at one point entering the straight I thought he was poised to take Comply Or Die but the latter was too classy and I was slightly disappointed that SM couldn't hold off KJC.

Comply Or Die covered me for the race, so big were my main bets, but at least I can claim to appear to have got some kind of grip on the race again after four barren years 2003-2006 were broken by Silver Birch last season and now COD.

The person who told me in October that he'd found an old notebook with the entry from 2 years ago: Comply Or Die - not good enough for the Gold Cup, can win the 2008 Grand National if they can get him in off a low weight was on the phone this morning very pleased with his 40/1 ante-post voucher. This was the same person who told me around the same time of year many moons ago that Master Oats would win the Gold Cup and to get on, also at 40/1. I talked him out of it ( :nuts: ) so I was very pleased for him yesterday.

My small bet on Milan Deux Mille at over 300 at least gave me a wee frisson of excitement - I'm easily excited you see - for a circuit.

Simon might have found the ground a bit too quick but he's tried now twice and failed to get round.

There's a valuable lesson for those starting to think about the 2009 race and it is the one offered by Slim Pickings's experience. The handicapper will muller anything that runs well in the race when he frames the weights for next year. He raised Slim Pickings 7lbs (that's a 14 length handicap) for not winning. Snowy Morning is already 14lbs up from when the weights were published and he can expect to carry a few pounds more than his normal OR when the weights are framed for next year. Comply Or Die and King Johns Castle will go up at least the same amount and can virtually be written off for future Nationals.

It seems it's one strike and you're out these days.
 
Well that was as a disasterous national as I've ever had, (although in truth I can think of two worse). I was tempted to try and present a ticket for Snowy Morning and claim I was betting on Sunday's weather :P
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Apr 6 2008, 04:31 PM
I see Jason Maguire said Cloudy Lane ran a great race. I have to admit it was a big disappointment to me. He seemed well there for the first circuit but dropped back quite far before plugging on past tired horses. I can't believe that was the same horse that hammered a top field at Doncaster but maybe he left Aintree behind there.
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Didn't he hammer Mr Pointment, who he hammered again ?
 
I reckon Mr Pointment will be bottomed by his race yesterday, possibly for good, and won't be in a hurry to back Turko either.
 
I think it was irresponsible of Sam Thomas not to pull up Mr Pointment as from his post race comments he clearly knew the horse was spent some way from home; Mr P then finished 'distressed'. The jocks esp the younger ones get too macho about 'finishing'.

As my comments on various forums before the race made clear, I thought putting Turko into the race at all was sheer madness and was very likely to ruin the horse - certainly for this race. Too many of Nicholls's decisions lately have left his reputation in my eyes a good deal lower than it was at the start of the season
 
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