Grand National Weights
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Papillon wasn't favourite. Hedgehunter was 7/1 Fav in 2005, and Earth Summit was 7/1 Fav in 1998, after a late plunge.
Could someone please talk me out of backing Simon? I couldn't have him on my mind last year but this year I keep getting drawn to him.
Could someone please talk me out of backing Simon? I couldn't have him on my mind last year but this year I keep getting drawn to him.
I remember Papillon being very well backed in on the day though - I spent about three hours in the morning [I was staying in a London club which had them all] going through the papers, and by the time I got up to the bookies his price had halved 
I still got 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th tho! Pat Murphy's horse rained on my parade LOL
I still got 1st, 3rd, 4th & 5th tho! Pat Murphy's horse rained on my parade LOL
simmo
Senior Jockey
OK. Don't back Simon Ricko you fool! What on earth are you thinking about? The horse has as much chance of winning as I have.
PS. Don't blame me if he wins now!
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,005
I remember it suddenly hitting me on the morning of the race that Papillon had a real shout but missed the fancy early prices, which kept disappearing every time I logged into another bookie's site.
I eventually bought it on the spreads at something like 1.5 for a vastly better return than the SP.
That 5/6 offer on the winner carrying less than 11-0 is seriously tempting.
I eventually bought it on the spreads at something like 1.5 for a vastly better return than the SP.
That 5/6 offer on the winner carrying less than 11-0 is seriously tempting.
rorydelargy
At the Start
I must say I'm tired of hearing what a bad race the National is for favourites. Since the war, there have been 20 odd winners of the race priced at 10/1 or less; given the propensity of the bookmakers to engineer a false favourite, it's not surprising that the outright market leader hasn't hit the mark that often, but you can't dismiss a horse simply because it's the outstanding candidate. The only thing you can say is that you can't realistically back a horse at under 5/1 even if it has ticks in all the right boxes.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Hah, thanks. I was thinking more with reasoned arguments thoughOriginally posted by Ricko+Mar 31 2008, 11:07 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Ricko @ Mar 31 2008, 11:07 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
OK. Don't back Simon Ricko you fool! What on earth are you thinking about? The horse has as much chance of winning as I have.
PS. Don't blame me if he wins now!
[/b][/quote]Everything was in the horse`s favour last year - he carried under 11st, he was in cracking form and yet he didn`t even complete the course. This year his form has been in and out and he`s a lot higher in the weights.
Place lay material.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Mely Moss was 2nd that year. Papillon was a enormous mover, but the majority of betting shops held the price until about midday. I remembering leaving the Ladbrokes shop I was running to back him in the Tote shop up the road in my lunch break ~ he was still 33/1 which was a pleasant surprise.Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 31 2008, 11:00 PM
I remember Papillon being very well backed in on the day though - I spent about three hours in the morning [I was staying in a London club which had them all] going through the papers, and by the time I got up to the bookies his price had halved
Good lord was he really? I was in South Kensington, watching in the Wm Hills I think
I def backed Mely Moss, with Papillon and Brave Highlander - ok just looked it up - 2000.
It was Monty's Pass's race 2003 in which Supreme Glory was 2nd, that was the other year I backed 3 out of the first 4 [1/3/4]. I'm still to get a straight Tri up LOL
Btw having read Nicholls' gung-ho piece on Turko, then just looked at his record, I'm not surprised he's never won the GN! Wouldn't back the horse with stolen money - wrong profile entirely imo. If he were mine he wouldn't be in the race. Won once at 3 miles, G/S at Sandown, but PU/PU & 7th his only other goes. He's surely a 2.5 mile horse? Not for me.
I def backed Mely Moss, with Papillon and Brave Highlander - ok just looked it up - 2000.
It was Monty's Pass's race 2003 in which Supreme Glory was 2nd, that was the other year I backed 3 out of the first 4 [1/3/4]. I'm still to get a straight Tri up LOL
Btw having read Nicholls' gung-ho piece on Turko, then just looked at his record, I'm not surprised he's never won the GN! Wouldn't back the horse with stolen money - wrong profile entirely imo. If he were mine he wouldn't be in the race. Won once at 3 miles, G/S at Sandown, but PU/PU & 7th his only other goes. He's surely a 2.5 mile horse? Not for me.
trudij
Senior Jockey
Philson Run is in though - :clap: hurrah!!
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
I'll second that - I'm on Philson Run and stand to win a fair bit if he does the business!
I've also backed Mr Pointment - there are various reasons why you can discount his last run - and to pennies, Backbeat and Cornish Rebel as I got 3 figure amounts on both!
I've also backed Mr Pointment - there are various reasons why you can discount his last run - and to pennies, Backbeat and Cornish Rebel as I got 3 figure amounts on both!
Not like Shadow to back a Howard Johnson horse or...Cornish Rebel!!! Will you ever learn!?!
Can't see 12 year old Philson Run getting any closer than last year but I must admit I had a few quid at a big price some time back and I'm delighted he's got in. Can lay off that bet now at shorter prices.
I'm going to have a few quid on D'argent - if anything, I can probably lay that off at the weekend as I reckon there'll be a surge on him at some stage on Fri/Sat....
By the way, does anyone think its ridiculous that there are a few trainers with multiple entries, Pipe, Nicholls, Twiston Davies all have a fair few runners in there - some of them haven't got a prayer - and legitimate entries further down where trainers have just the one horse might mix out.
Yes, I know there's different owners involved etc etc but I'm not sure about it. At least it makes the punting easier because you can draw a line through a lot of the runners on this basis.
Can't see 12 year old Philson Run getting any closer than last year but I must admit I had a few quid at a big price some time back and I'm delighted he's got in. Can lay off that bet now at shorter prices.
I'm going to have a few quid on D'argent - if anything, I can probably lay that off at the weekend as I reckon there'll be a surge on him at some stage on Fri/Sat....
By the way, does anyone think its ridiculous that there are a few trainers with multiple entries, Pipe, Nicholls, Twiston Davies all have a fair few runners in there - some of them haven't got a prayer - and legitimate entries further down where trainers have just the one horse might mix out.
Yes, I know there's different owners involved etc etc but I'm not sure about it. At least it makes the punting easier because you can draw a line through a lot of the runners on this basis.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Two things about Philson Run ~ he made his rules debut at the age of eight so doesn't have many miles on the clock and he was hampered twice last year when travelling strongly so could well have been closer. I personally think he's at least as good as then and he is my biggest result in the race. I managed to snaffle some 110 about him in the autumn and have continued to dip in.
My other big winners are Madison Du Berlais (who did me a favour when placed in the Hennessy) and Milan Deux Mille (I flagged him up as a star here a couple of seasons back and I'm sticking to that, although he's more a Topham horse tbh). Mon Mome is also a decent result while two or three are small winners for me.
Forgive the repetition as I've posted this elsewhere tonight:
I would like to see any horse which has completed - been placed even - over 3 miles or more, given preference over any horse [possibly within a certain handicap rating] which hasn't.
No horse which hasn't completed in a chase over three miles stands any chance of winning the GN, and it's totally wrong, to my way of thinking, for such horses to deny a chance to those which do stand a chance of winning. They just get in the way.
It's not fair to those horses either - in whichever of the two categories - to muddy the waters like that. Proper GN horses - thorough stayers - should have their chance at glory, and 2.5 milers should NOT be subjected to such an experience. It's demoralising for them - they either fall or they're PU or they refuse - just to give their owners a 'day out on the big stage'?
The fact that Philson Run was almost denied a run even by horses like Turko let alone the likes of Contraband is unacceptable imo. It's not so much the numbers from a certain yard, as the total unsuitability of some of the entries on trip alone which really bothers me.
Age too - 6 is far too young for this test. The handicapping system is to blame too in that it doesn't distinguish between horses proven at a trip and those which aren't. Att he other end of the scale, it's more a case of a hrose being lightly raced than its age - and Philson Run is very lightly raced
It's particularly important in this race given the huge field, that you don't get horses running which are totally unsuited to it - but you always do, which does increase the risks of them tripping up better horses
I would like to see any horse which has completed - been placed even - over 3 miles or more, given preference over any horse [possibly within a certain handicap rating] which hasn't.
No horse which hasn't completed in a chase over three miles stands any chance of winning the GN, and it's totally wrong, to my way of thinking, for such horses to deny a chance to those which do stand a chance of winning. They just get in the way.
It's not fair to those horses either - in whichever of the two categories - to muddy the waters like that. Proper GN horses - thorough stayers - should have their chance at glory, and 2.5 milers should NOT be subjected to such an experience. It's demoralising for them - they either fall or they're PU or they refuse - just to give their owners a 'day out on the big stage'?
The fact that Philson Run was almost denied a run even by horses like Turko let alone the likes of Contraband is unacceptable imo. It's not so much the numbers from a certain yard, as the total unsuitability of some of the entries on trip alone which really bothers me.
Age too - 6 is far too young for this test. The handicapping system is to blame too in that it doesn't distinguish between horses proven at a trip and those which aren't. Att he other end of the scale, it's more a case of a hrose being lightly raced than its age - and Philson Run is very lightly raced
It's particularly important in this race given the huge field, that you don't get horses running which are totally unsuited to it - but you always do, which does increase the risks of them tripping up better horses
simmo
Senior Jockey
Following on from my comments on the other GN thread. So you wouldn't have allowed Red Marauder to take part? Never mind, I still wouldn't have won that year. :laughing:
simmo
Senior Jockey
Since the edit function isn't working I can't remove my pish above. Must pay more attention.
Completed Simmo, completed over 3m+
:shy:
Completed Simmo, completed over 3m+
:shy:
Following on from my comments on the other GN thread. So you wouldn't have allowed Red Marauder to take part? Never mind, I still wouldn't have won that year. :laughing: [/b][/quote]
In a deluge, all bets are off! And there's a case for saying that horsemanship was a big factor that year too
I backed Beau both years he ran, inc that year - like Carl L I've never got over the two URs!
The 'completed' is indeed the thing.
I'm very put off by PUs against a horse at 3m+ and if it's never completed over 3m I wouldn't look at it
There are some absolute set in stone stats that we must take heed of and allow us to narrow down the Grand National field before we consider form and going preferences of the runners.
Just one winner of the Grand National has never won at 3 miles or more so every horse you consider must have won over 3 miles plus.
Weight is obviously a big factor and the most weight carried to victory was Red Rum carrying 11-6. The way the weights are this year there is a fair chance we could get an 11 stone winner so I am going to rule out anything above 11-2 as nothing in the last 20 years has managed that feat.
Horses don’t win the Grand National if they younger than 8 or older than 12 but most winners are 9,10 or 11. I will allow horses that are 8 to 12 but extra credit is given to the 9, 10 and 11 year olds.
Horses need to have had between 4-6 runs in the season if the stats are to be believed so lightly/heavily trained horses need to be ruled out.
Every winner has had a run within the last 50 days so the rusty horses are ruled out.
Although most horses are given a fairly light prep race before the big one they must at least run respectably in that so we can rule out anything that didn’t finish in the first seven on their latest run.
I have entered these stats into http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/gran...tional-form.php which gives me the following horses:
Cloudy Lane
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
D’argent
L’ami
Kelami
Idle Talk
I think the winner will definitely come from that list.
Idle Talk’s win over 3m+ was in poor company and £17,000 is usually the cut off point for smallest chase win so we can rule that one out.
Let’s look at who is left
Cloudy Lane
Deserves to be favourite and is obviously well in at the weights having won twice since the weights came out. Stamina has to be taken on trust as he has failed both times he has run over marathon distances but there were excuses at Fairyhouse last season as he was considered over the top by then. Decent jumper and possible winner but 5/1 is extremely short and in my opinion he is unbackable because of that price.
Comply Or Die
Won by a wide margin over a trip within three furlongs of the Grand National trip so certainly has the stamina for this. He is a classy individual who has had problems (was pulled up in three of six starts) but he seems back to his best and because of those problems we probably still haven’t seen the best of him. Has only fallen once in his career but yet to face fences like this, he is a very likely winner if getting a clear round, looks highly promising. Only negative is poor record of horses in the National when wearing headgear.
Snowy Morning
Has won over 3m but doesn’t look like a great stayer and although possibly well handicapped he has disappointed on his most recent start when a beaten odds on favourite and probably likes the ground softer. Can’t have it and will be surprised if it places.
D’Argent
Has plenty of stamina and seems to go on any ground. He is a decent jumper but four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick so maybe he just prefers it there and doesn’t look fantastically handicapped. Another with the head gear on too.
L’Ami
Stayed on well recently at Cheltenham and completed the race last year but was well beaten. Carries less weight this time and will probably get round but doesn’t quite stay this trip. Will probably come about 7th or 8th.
Kelami
Another who ran in the race last year (pulled up) but still retains plenty of ability and a marathon trip on goodish ground would suit. Hard to win with but a decent bet to place at the price.
Grand National Bets
I think Comply or Die is going to take all the beating and the only negative is the wearing of blinkers. I will be having a decent sized bet on Comply or Die and also a place interest in Kelami.
Away from the stats I will also be backing Slim Pickings to place as he came third in the race last year and has been trained for this all season. Should be able to bag a place at ok place odds.
Just one winner of the Grand National has never won at 3 miles or more so every horse you consider must have won over 3 miles plus.
Weight is obviously a big factor and the most weight carried to victory was Red Rum carrying 11-6. The way the weights are this year there is a fair chance we could get an 11 stone winner so I am going to rule out anything above 11-2 as nothing in the last 20 years has managed that feat.
Horses don’t win the Grand National if they younger than 8 or older than 12 but most winners are 9,10 or 11. I will allow horses that are 8 to 12 but extra credit is given to the 9, 10 and 11 year olds.
Horses need to have had between 4-6 runs in the season if the stats are to be believed so lightly/heavily trained horses need to be ruled out.
Every winner has had a run within the last 50 days so the rusty horses are ruled out.
Although most horses are given a fairly light prep race before the big one they must at least run respectably in that so we can rule out anything that didn’t finish in the first seven on their latest run.
I have entered these stats into http://www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/gran...tional-form.php which gives me the following horses:
Cloudy Lane
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
D’argent
L’ami
Kelami
Idle Talk
I think the winner will definitely come from that list.
Idle Talk’s win over 3m+ was in poor company and £17,000 is usually the cut off point for smallest chase win so we can rule that one out.
Let’s look at who is left
Cloudy Lane
Deserves to be favourite and is obviously well in at the weights having won twice since the weights came out. Stamina has to be taken on trust as he has failed both times he has run over marathon distances but there were excuses at Fairyhouse last season as he was considered over the top by then. Decent jumper and possible winner but 5/1 is extremely short and in my opinion he is unbackable because of that price.
Comply Or Die
Won by a wide margin over a trip within three furlongs of the Grand National trip so certainly has the stamina for this. He is a classy individual who has had problems (was pulled up in three of six starts) but he seems back to his best and because of those problems we probably still haven’t seen the best of him. Has only fallen once in his career but yet to face fences like this, he is a very likely winner if getting a clear round, looks highly promising. Only negative is poor record of horses in the National when wearing headgear.
Snowy Morning
Has won over 3m but doesn’t look like a great stayer and although possibly well handicapped he has disappointed on his most recent start when a beaten odds on favourite and probably likes the ground softer. Can’t have it and will be surprised if it places.
D’Argent
Has plenty of stamina and seems to go on any ground. He is a decent jumper but four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick so maybe he just prefers it there and doesn’t look fantastically handicapped. Another with the head gear on too.
L’Ami
Stayed on well recently at Cheltenham and completed the race last year but was well beaten. Carries less weight this time and will probably get round but doesn’t quite stay this trip. Will probably come about 7th or 8th.
Kelami
Another who ran in the race last year (pulled up) but still retains plenty of ability and a marathon trip on goodish ground would suit. Hard to win with but a decent bet to place at the price.
Grand National Bets
I think Comply or Die is going to take all the beating and the only negative is the wearing of blinkers. I will be having a decent sized bet on Comply or Die and also a place interest in Kelami.
Away from the stats I will also be backing Slim Pickings to place as he came third in the race last year and has been trained for this all season. Should be able to bag a place at ok place odds.
Flagship uberalles
Journeyman
The thing I have always thought about D'Argent is that he has to go left handed. His form at Cheltenham and Warwick always struck me as being a lot better than anything else he produced.
He'll definitely be carrying some of my hard-earned come Saturday (possibly before once the Betfair day of the race market is open).
Welcome to the forum, TheDoc - you aren't by any chance the same Doc as Punter's Paradise are you?
He'll definitely be carrying some of my hard-earned come Saturday (possibly before once the Betfair day of the race market is open).
Welcome to the forum, TheDoc - you aren't by any chance the same Doc as Punter's Paradise are you?
I think the last one may have been in the 19th century, but recently, horses like Clan Royal, Royal Auclair and Blowing Wind have gone close.
Not many of them are very big and the smaller ones are often quite light-framed, not butty little horses like Team Spirit.
Not many of them are very big and the smaller ones are often quite light-framed, not butty little horses like Team Spirit.
