Cloudy Bays generally pushed out to 6/1 this evening after all the rubbish from the bookmakers earlier in the week suggesting people should take the price as soon as possible as he is likely to only shorten right up to race time.
Grand National Weights
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Not quite as scandelous as last years plunge on Monkerhostin who I seem to think was sent off either fav or co fav of three? Does anyone know anyone, who backed Monkerhostin? Segal was adamant that he didn't and that none of the faces who might generate a plunge had. Similarly, no tipping line, or newspaper wrote him up
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,803
I abcked Monkerhostin at much longer odds in the morning because he was well handicapped. I know he's an iffy jumper and was a strong candidate not to take to the fences but I could have said the same thing about Last Suspect.
I don't think Backbeat will stay. He won at 25f at Sandown but that was against a poor field. Other than that he's no form at the extreme distances and only one 2nd and a 10th at 24m.
My outsider is Naunton Brook, 100/1 on PP who pay 5 places at 1/4 odds. He has good stamina credentials in my book, has only fallen once [Oct 04], and David England has got off him to ride Ardeghey, gifting the ride to Andy Tinkler, imo a better jockey.
Last year Nautnon Brook who's a front runner was taken to the front too soon and led 6 out, with a fast pace these days that did for him and he was PU when losing places after the 22nd. Ridden with more restraint I think he could run into a place. The main worry is that he put in a poor showing for the Midlands GN which was less than a month ago, and was PU early, possibly because he couldn't dominate. So it's a conundrum how to ride him in the GN, save for which I think he'd be a good bet!
Monkerhostin last year was far too exposed to be tackling this race. He was popular because so many occasional racing fans knew his name, imo
My outsider is Naunton Brook, 100/1 on PP who pay 5 places at 1/4 odds. He has good stamina credentials in my book, has only fallen once [Oct 04], and David England has got off him to ride Ardeghey, gifting the ride to Andy Tinkler, imo a better jockey.
Last year Nautnon Brook who's a front runner was taken to the front too soon and led 6 out, with a fast pace these days that did for him and he was PU when losing places after the 22nd. Ridden with more restraint I think he could run into a place. The main worry is that he put in a poor showing for the Midlands GN which was less than a month ago, and was PU early, possibly because he couldn't dominate. So it's a conundrum how to ride him in the GN, save for which I think he'd be a good bet!
Monkerhostin last year was far too exposed to be tackling this race. He was popular because so many occasional racing fans knew his name, imo
BlazingWalker
At the Start
As usual in this race I have scattered a few minor bets around & one of them is Backbeat but the way the HJ horses are running leads me to believe the money's gone South now. I think he will stay though but thats if Mr Renwick can stay on board :brows:
There seems to always be a topical/fairytale story with the National & now Dobbs as announced is retirement it would be fitting if he were to win on Point Barrow (& would be nice for me as thats another with my money riding on it norty ).
Cloudy Lane is a worthy FAV but Jason Maguire is 0-42 in the last 5 years at Aintree & I'm sure he will have had some fancied rides in that time.
Joacci would be interesting if on a going day.They are trying the blinkers today & he did win in cheekpieces the first time they were tried but that was a weak hurdle race.
I could name half a dozen others & probably still not get the winner so I'll be sticking with the ones I already have.
There seems to always be a topical/fairytale story with the National & now Dobbs as announced is retirement it would be fitting if he were to win on Point Barrow (& would be nice for me as thats another with my money riding on it norty ).
Cloudy Lane is a worthy FAV but Jason Maguire is 0-42 in the last 5 years at Aintree & I'm sure he will have had some fancied rides in that time.
Joacci would be interesting if on a going day.They are trying the blinkers today & he did win in cheekpieces the first time they were tried but that was a weak hurdle race.
I could name half a dozen others & probably still not get the winner so I'll be sticking with the ones I already have.
EC1
On a break
purely on trends I'll be backing
NAUNTON BROOK
CLOUDY LANE
BAILY BREEZE
NAUNTON BROOK
CLOUDY LANE
BAILY BREEZE
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Cloudy Lane 7.6 on the machine now. Getting quite tempted.
OVERPRICED PHILSON CAN GRAB NATIONAL GLORY
The Runners
HEDGEHUNTER
Interesting to see Ruby Walsh select Hedgehunter over Turko but I can only see that being down to loyalty. Ran well last time when chasing home Afistfullofdollars but 8lb higher than when he won this in 2005 and its looks one of the strongest Nationals in many years. Likely to give a run for his money but others preferred.
HI CLOY
Genuine 2m – 3m chaser in Ireland and often runs a good race but surprisingly very high in the handicap. Stamina must be questioned here and would ideally want more juice in the ground.
KNOWHERE
Yard in tremendous form and has kept improving all season. A little disappointing in the Gold Cup but previously beat Our Vic in the Cotswold Chase and has looked decent winning a 2m 5f chase at Cheltenham at the start of the season. Will love the ground here and jumps well and not too dissimilar to Bindaree who won for the yard in 2002. High enough up the weights however.
MR POINTMENT
Was my ideal National bet until the weights came out and looked the business when winning here in the Beecher. Handicapper has had his say and latest effort at Doncaster was disappointing. Will be fresh from missing Cheltenham and Nicholls has been doing very well this week but I just fee he is a little high in the weights.
TURKO
Tough horse who has been running well this season. Game 3rd when always outpaced in the Ryanair last time and gives the impression he could take to these sort of fences as he is an aggressive jumper. Younger than the average National runner but sure to have been well schooled and quietly fancied by his trainer. Doesn’t give the impression he is well handicapped enough to win it but likely to run well.
MADISON DE BERLAIS
Hasn’t been given any rest bite by the handicapper and whilst he has won this season he has just looked a little badly handicapped in recent races and vulnerable. Often runs his race however and comes here fresh. May struggle to make all however.
SIMON
Fancied when falling last season and was still going well enough at the time. Comes here in good form this time around and would have gone close in the Cotswold Chase but for unseating. Found the Racing Post too sharp for him last time and his stamina will bring him into contention here. Guaranteed to stay and whilst he is a few pounds higher than ideal he is one I do think will run a big race.
ARDAGHEY
Never runs two races alike and unfortunately is not a great jumper. Has looked exposed in recent starts and not too hard to pass over here. I can’t see him getting round.
IRON MAN
Form has tailed off lately after a decent start to the season and the handicapper has given him a right chance now 4lb higher than when last winning. Will need to prove he can stay this far but loves the ground. Probably would have been better off in the Topham however.
FUNDAMENTALIST
Grand old servant over the years and always runs his race. Looked in good form at Cheltenham coming 3rd to Mister McGoldrick over a trip shorter than ideal and previously looked good winning at Wincanton. Normally a good jumper he has a bit going for him and could go well here.
BUTLER’S CABIN
Last season’s Irish National winner and gives the impression he will stay all day but he is not the biggest and he has been well below par this season. Interesting McCoy has plumed for him but his record hardly enthuses confidence. High enough in the weights for what he has actually achieved and quite happy to look elsewhere.
SLIM PICKINGS
Cracking 3rd last season and 7lb higher as a result. Primed just right for this and really coming to hand nicely at home are the reports. Horses that place in the race the year before often go well next time and despite being a bit higher he gives the impression he could be well handicapped still. Prep runs have been eye-catching over inadequate trips and whilst the weight factor un-favours him a little I can see him going close.
CHELSEA HARBOUR
Steadily improving chaser who often runs a good race, has been performing well lately and 5th at Leopardstown last time was pleasing giving it was over a trip shorter than ideal. Does take a chance at his fences however and that could count against him here.
VODKA BLEU
Overlooked by Timmy Murphy but is my description of the ideal National horse. Stay’s 3m but best at 2m 5f and was far from disgraced in a hotly contested race at Ascot last time. Been kept fresh for this and whilst he is probably a little high in the handicap I can see him running a good race.
L’AMI
Back to form 3rd at Cheltenham last time and possibly slow start proved costly. Gives the impression he could be suited by this and whilst he didn’t jump brilliantly last season I’m sure those errors will have been ironed out. Off the same mark as that Cheltenham 3rd and no surprise if he were to go well.
SNOWY MORNING
Strongly fancied for the Hennessy but tipped up early. Responded with two decent wins afterwards and then was given a break. Looks well handicapped off 9lb lower than his official mark and recent place efforts have looked decent given trainer feels his last race came too soon for him, Well in on the weights and carrying an ideal National winning weight. Yard in great form and one you could clearly see going close. Gives the impression he will stay all day.
BEWLEYS BERRY
Well in at the weights with Mr Pointment but clearly would have liked to have seen more from him last time. Could be in with a squeak knowing he likes it around here but disappointing to see he does look an Autumn horse. His record around here reads 2 seconds and a fall but yard still getting the winners and shouldn’t be totally overlooked.
CONTRABAND
No chance of staying, no chance of completing, shouldn’t be allowed to race in this.
MCKELVEY
A cracking effort last season and would have won with a few more strides. Has looked very much under par this season and prep run couldn’t have gone worse. Chance if back to his best but that looks unlikely.
JOAACI
Outclassed in some decent chases at the end of last season and has been running better over hurdles lately. Not quite sure he has the attitude required for a National and headgear will probably have little effect.
POINT BARROW
Doesn’t always find as much as expected under pressure and has been a little disappointing his last three starts in blinkers. Former Irish National winner but hard to recommend on recent efforts and unlikely to give Tony Dobbin the fairytale send off.
D’ARGENT
Back to form lately with a couple of cracking efforts and looks quite well handicapped off 142. Stays forever and a very good jumper so fits the bill and the King yard are in great form. He is an interesting one and whilst softer ground would have suited he is one I can see running a big race.
NO FULL
Doesn’t give the impression he stays further than 2m 4f and outclassed lately in some decent chases. This stamina searching trip is probably beyond him and would have preferred better ground.
BAILY BREEZE
Looked outclassed against a few of these rivals last time and form has tailed off since a win in December. Normally best in the mud and like so many front runners in this, he will probably be struggling on the 2nd circuit.
BOB HALL
Has gone the wrong way since a promising start of the season at Cheltenham and looked awful at Cheltenham last time. Hard to know if he is the same horse still and stamina is a major worry.
CLOUDY LANE
Improving all the while and hoping to give Donald McCain a taste of his fathers tonic. Hard not to have been impressed by the way he won last time and 20lb well in on the book here. Ground and trip look perfect and the only question to be answered is will he handle the fences. Likes to be dropped out so he’ll have to be trying to avoid a minefield early but if ever a horse had a serious chance of winning a National with all the boxes ticked its him. Likely winner and will not be far away with a clear round.
KING JOHNS CASTLE
The Irish feel McCoy has made the wrong decision but that could be to the punters benefit. Stays 3m and evidently well treated here and a prep over hurdles was very impressive. Trainer thinks he will love the track and interestingly despite failing to show his best form on faster ground, it is believed its what he wants. Capable of running a big race and looks one of the main players.
MON MOME
Does stay and some good efforts in some decent handicap chases last season. Not disgraced in 3 starts this year and finished strongly at Cheltenham when the race was over, Could be coming back to the form he showed last season and looks the type to stay well. Hard to rule out and capable of running a big race.
CORNISH SETT
Has ability but often gets himself outpaced and rally’s too late. Hasn’t looked the same horse since a grand effort at Cheltenham and whilst he could go well fresh here the removal of blinkers and faster ground is a worry.
NAUNTON BROOK
Thought he would probably run better than he did last time and pretty much sulked when not getting it all his own way up front. That has to be the worry today but weighted to do okay and yard remain in good form. If he gets out and bowling along in front he could be an interesting player as he stays all day but slight feeling the handicapper has him where he wants him now.
TUMBLING DICE
Genuine 2m – 2m 4f chaser in Ireland but unlikely he will get this trip and plenty of others preferred.
BACKBEAT
Trainer has always rated him and does sneak in here right at the foot of the weights. Impressive win at Sandown would give him a squeak in this and whilst he didn’t exactly impress last time he does look better over these long trips and well weighted to go well. A good jumper he could go well at a decent price.
COMPLY OR DIE
The one in the race I quietly fancy strongly. Has been improving all year and last two efforts have been very classy including a gutsy effort winning the Eider Chase. Stays all day and well weighted here and blinkers have worked the oracle for him here. Definitely in with solid claims if Timmy Murphy can keep him enthused and he looks to have a leading chance.
IDLE TALK
Good on his day but very worrying is his lack of completion record. Could be well handicapped off his current mark and did run well last time at Cheltenham but I’m not convinced he will get round here.
KELAMI
Not a great jumper and previous record in this race is very worrying. Back to form with a great effort at Kempton last time but doesn’t look like he really enjoys it over these fences.
MILAN DEUX MILLE
Decent speed chaser on his day who had his chase mark protected for much of the season but very disappointing last time and even if his rating raises a question his stamina will be a bigger question he has to answer.
NADOVER
Was entered at the sales last week so that alone is worrying and also looks to be regressing in his races, stamina has major issues and cheek pieces look like a major stab at hope.
BLACK APALACHI
Not shown enough in recent races to consider here and jumping often suffers. Easy to discount.
PHILSON RUN
Honest sort who was a decent 4th in this last season. Was absolutely cruising and running a big race when being brought down at Haydock last time and that came on the back of a decent 2nd to D’Argent at Warwick needing the run. Very well weighted off only 1lb higher this season and all his races this year suggest he is a better horse. Age will concern some but yard in great order and unquestionably well handicapped. Will absolutely love the ground and looks to have a major chance once more.
DUN DOIRE
Hasn’t completed in two starts around here previously and not always the most respectful of jumpers. Often prefers much more cut in the ground and looked a bit ungenuine last time. Blinkers tried today and whilst he does look well treated on his best form I’m not convinced the National is his cup of tea.
Summary:
A tight and very competitive Grand National and probably been a long time since no horse was out the handicap showing how high the quality of racing is nowadays.
A few come here in great order but its 5 horses that stand out for me.
Cloudy Lane has to be respected and has done nothing wrong this season winning his past 3 races in grand style. He is 20lb ahead of the handicapper but his hold up tactics will have his punters holding their breathe over the first dozen fences as the pack evens out. If he can carry himself into contention he has to be fancied.
Backbeat is another I think will run well for big odds and he is clear an improving sort who has plenty of ability. He has been progressing in the right direction and comes here in really good form. His two efforts this season suggest he will go well and he is well weighted at the bottom of the weights.
King Johns Castle is the best chance of the Irish for me and I was very taken by him last time. He is such a good jumper and gives the impression he will stay all day. He has plenty going for him with his trainer feeling the ground has come perfect for him and he is very much a horse I think can go close in this.
Comply Or Die is a horse I have had a decent each way on and he won very well in the Eider. He is definitely well treated on that form and the yard is in good form. He jumps very well and the blinkers have found a new lease of life in him. He is steadily coming together and if he takes to this early he is the type that could wind it up from halfway. He is a big player for me and I would expect him to be there or thereabouts.
However the selection for me is Nick Williams’ PHILSON RUN. The Barnstaple trainer produced the lightly raced 12yo to finish 4th in this last season and his form is undoubtedly stronger this season. He looked in need of the run at Warwick on his seasonal reappearance and did little wrong in running a gallant 2nd to a D’Argent who loves Warwick. He was full of running in 6th at Haydock next time when getting brought down and I honestly feel he would have won had he stood up. He would have been kept going nicely for this and looks a much better horse this season than he did the year before. A decent jumper he stays all day and is best on this ground. 1lb higher than when 4th last year but the 2nd and 3rd haven’t looked as smart as him this year and Philson Run is certainly well weighted to reverse form. He has the ticks in all the right boxes and has plenty going for him here. I rate him a massive player and at 25/1 I think he is overpriced. He knows his way round, this time I hope he finds his way home in front. Its been a long time since the west country has brought home the National and the you would find fewer more deserving than the family run Williams outfit.
Advised Bets
2pts Ew Philson Run @ 33/1
1pt Ew Comply Or Die @ 11/1
1pt Ew Cloudy Lane @ 6/1
0.75pts Ew King Johns Castle @ 22/1
0.5pts Ew Backbeat @ 100/1
10.5pts Staked
Good Luck
Chris
The Runners
HEDGEHUNTER
Interesting to see Ruby Walsh select Hedgehunter over Turko but I can only see that being down to loyalty. Ran well last time when chasing home Afistfullofdollars but 8lb higher than when he won this in 2005 and its looks one of the strongest Nationals in many years. Likely to give a run for his money but others preferred.
HI CLOY
Genuine 2m – 3m chaser in Ireland and often runs a good race but surprisingly very high in the handicap. Stamina must be questioned here and would ideally want more juice in the ground.
KNOWHERE
Yard in tremendous form and has kept improving all season. A little disappointing in the Gold Cup but previously beat Our Vic in the Cotswold Chase and has looked decent winning a 2m 5f chase at Cheltenham at the start of the season. Will love the ground here and jumps well and not too dissimilar to Bindaree who won for the yard in 2002. High enough up the weights however.
MR POINTMENT
Was my ideal National bet until the weights came out and looked the business when winning here in the Beecher. Handicapper has had his say and latest effort at Doncaster was disappointing. Will be fresh from missing Cheltenham and Nicholls has been doing very well this week but I just fee he is a little high in the weights.
TURKO
Tough horse who has been running well this season. Game 3rd when always outpaced in the Ryanair last time and gives the impression he could take to these sort of fences as he is an aggressive jumper. Younger than the average National runner but sure to have been well schooled and quietly fancied by his trainer. Doesn’t give the impression he is well handicapped enough to win it but likely to run well.
MADISON DE BERLAIS
Hasn’t been given any rest bite by the handicapper and whilst he has won this season he has just looked a little badly handicapped in recent races and vulnerable. Often runs his race however and comes here fresh. May struggle to make all however.
SIMON
Fancied when falling last season and was still going well enough at the time. Comes here in good form this time around and would have gone close in the Cotswold Chase but for unseating. Found the Racing Post too sharp for him last time and his stamina will bring him into contention here. Guaranteed to stay and whilst he is a few pounds higher than ideal he is one I do think will run a big race.
ARDAGHEY
Never runs two races alike and unfortunately is not a great jumper. Has looked exposed in recent starts and not too hard to pass over here. I can’t see him getting round.
IRON MAN
Form has tailed off lately after a decent start to the season and the handicapper has given him a right chance now 4lb higher than when last winning. Will need to prove he can stay this far but loves the ground. Probably would have been better off in the Topham however.
FUNDAMENTALIST
Grand old servant over the years and always runs his race. Looked in good form at Cheltenham coming 3rd to Mister McGoldrick over a trip shorter than ideal and previously looked good winning at Wincanton. Normally a good jumper he has a bit going for him and could go well here.
BUTLER’S CABIN
Last season’s Irish National winner and gives the impression he will stay all day but he is not the biggest and he has been well below par this season. Interesting McCoy has plumed for him but his record hardly enthuses confidence. High enough in the weights for what he has actually achieved and quite happy to look elsewhere.
SLIM PICKINGS
Cracking 3rd last season and 7lb higher as a result. Primed just right for this and really coming to hand nicely at home are the reports. Horses that place in the race the year before often go well next time and despite being a bit higher he gives the impression he could be well handicapped still. Prep runs have been eye-catching over inadequate trips and whilst the weight factor un-favours him a little I can see him going close.
CHELSEA HARBOUR
Steadily improving chaser who often runs a good race, has been performing well lately and 5th at Leopardstown last time was pleasing giving it was over a trip shorter than ideal. Does take a chance at his fences however and that could count against him here.
VODKA BLEU
Overlooked by Timmy Murphy but is my description of the ideal National horse. Stay’s 3m but best at 2m 5f and was far from disgraced in a hotly contested race at Ascot last time. Been kept fresh for this and whilst he is probably a little high in the handicap I can see him running a good race.
L’AMI
Back to form 3rd at Cheltenham last time and possibly slow start proved costly. Gives the impression he could be suited by this and whilst he didn’t jump brilliantly last season I’m sure those errors will have been ironed out. Off the same mark as that Cheltenham 3rd and no surprise if he were to go well.
SNOWY MORNING
Strongly fancied for the Hennessy but tipped up early. Responded with two decent wins afterwards and then was given a break. Looks well handicapped off 9lb lower than his official mark and recent place efforts have looked decent given trainer feels his last race came too soon for him, Well in on the weights and carrying an ideal National winning weight. Yard in great form and one you could clearly see going close. Gives the impression he will stay all day.
BEWLEYS BERRY
Well in at the weights with Mr Pointment but clearly would have liked to have seen more from him last time. Could be in with a squeak knowing he likes it around here but disappointing to see he does look an Autumn horse. His record around here reads 2 seconds and a fall but yard still getting the winners and shouldn’t be totally overlooked.
CONTRABAND
No chance of staying, no chance of completing, shouldn’t be allowed to race in this.
MCKELVEY
A cracking effort last season and would have won with a few more strides. Has looked very much under par this season and prep run couldn’t have gone worse. Chance if back to his best but that looks unlikely.
JOAACI
Outclassed in some decent chases at the end of last season and has been running better over hurdles lately. Not quite sure he has the attitude required for a National and headgear will probably have little effect.
POINT BARROW
Doesn’t always find as much as expected under pressure and has been a little disappointing his last three starts in blinkers. Former Irish National winner but hard to recommend on recent efforts and unlikely to give Tony Dobbin the fairytale send off.
D’ARGENT
Back to form lately with a couple of cracking efforts and looks quite well handicapped off 142. Stays forever and a very good jumper so fits the bill and the King yard are in great form. He is an interesting one and whilst softer ground would have suited he is one I can see running a big race.
NO FULL
Doesn’t give the impression he stays further than 2m 4f and outclassed lately in some decent chases. This stamina searching trip is probably beyond him and would have preferred better ground.
BAILY BREEZE
Looked outclassed against a few of these rivals last time and form has tailed off since a win in December. Normally best in the mud and like so many front runners in this, he will probably be struggling on the 2nd circuit.
BOB HALL
Has gone the wrong way since a promising start of the season at Cheltenham and looked awful at Cheltenham last time. Hard to know if he is the same horse still and stamina is a major worry.
CLOUDY LANE
Improving all the while and hoping to give Donald McCain a taste of his fathers tonic. Hard not to have been impressed by the way he won last time and 20lb well in on the book here. Ground and trip look perfect and the only question to be answered is will he handle the fences. Likes to be dropped out so he’ll have to be trying to avoid a minefield early but if ever a horse had a serious chance of winning a National with all the boxes ticked its him. Likely winner and will not be far away with a clear round.
KING JOHNS CASTLE
The Irish feel McCoy has made the wrong decision but that could be to the punters benefit. Stays 3m and evidently well treated here and a prep over hurdles was very impressive. Trainer thinks he will love the track and interestingly despite failing to show his best form on faster ground, it is believed its what he wants. Capable of running a big race and looks one of the main players.
MON MOME
Does stay and some good efforts in some decent handicap chases last season. Not disgraced in 3 starts this year and finished strongly at Cheltenham when the race was over, Could be coming back to the form he showed last season and looks the type to stay well. Hard to rule out and capable of running a big race.
CORNISH SETT
Has ability but often gets himself outpaced and rally’s too late. Hasn’t looked the same horse since a grand effort at Cheltenham and whilst he could go well fresh here the removal of blinkers and faster ground is a worry.
NAUNTON BROOK
Thought he would probably run better than he did last time and pretty much sulked when not getting it all his own way up front. That has to be the worry today but weighted to do okay and yard remain in good form. If he gets out and bowling along in front he could be an interesting player as he stays all day but slight feeling the handicapper has him where he wants him now.
TUMBLING DICE
Genuine 2m – 2m 4f chaser in Ireland but unlikely he will get this trip and plenty of others preferred.
BACKBEAT
Trainer has always rated him and does sneak in here right at the foot of the weights. Impressive win at Sandown would give him a squeak in this and whilst he didn’t exactly impress last time he does look better over these long trips and well weighted to go well. A good jumper he could go well at a decent price.
COMPLY OR DIE
The one in the race I quietly fancy strongly. Has been improving all year and last two efforts have been very classy including a gutsy effort winning the Eider Chase. Stays all day and well weighted here and blinkers have worked the oracle for him here. Definitely in with solid claims if Timmy Murphy can keep him enthused and he looks to have a leading chance.
IDLE TALK
Good on his day but very worrying is his lack of completion record. Could be well handicapped off his current mark and did run well last time at Cheltenham but I’m not convinced he will get round here.
KELAMI
Not a great jumper and previous record in this race is very worrying. Back to form with a great effort at Kempton last time but doesn’t look like he really enjoys it over these fences.
MILAN DEUX MILLE
Decent speed chaser on his day who had his chase mark protected for much of the season but very disappointing last time and even if his rating raises a question his stamina will be a bigger question he has to answer.
NADOVER
Was entered at the sales last week so that alone is worrying and also looks to be regressing in his races, stamina has major issues and cheek pieces look like a major stab at hope.
BLACK APALACHI
Not shown enough in recent races to consider here and jumping often suffers. Easy to discount.
PHILSON RUN
Honest sort who was a decent 4th in this last season. Was absolutely cruising and running a big race when being brought down at Haydock last time and that came on the back of a decent 2nd to D’Argent at Warwick needing the run. Very well weighted off only 1lb higher this season and all his races this year suggest he is a better horse. Age will concern some but yard in great order and unquestionably well handicapped. Will absolutely love the ground and looks to have a major chance once more.
DUN DOIRE
Hasn’t completed in two starts around here previously and not always the most respectful of jumpers. Often prefers much more cut in the ground and looked a bit ungenuine last time. Blinkers tried today and whilst he does look well treated on his best form I’m not convinced the National is his cup of tea.
Summary:
A tight and very competitive Grand National and probably been a long time since no horse was out the handicap showing how high the quality of racing is nowadays.
A few come here in great order but its 5 horses that stand out for me.
Cloudy Lane has to be respected and has done nothing wrong this season winning his past 3 races in grand style. He is 20lb ahead of the handicapper but his hold up tactics will have his punters holding their breathe over the first dozen fences as the pack evens out. If he can carry himself into contention he has to be fancied.
Backbeat is another I think will run well for big odds and he is clear an improving sort who has plenty of ability. He has been progressing in the right direction and comes here in really good form. His two efforts this season suggest he will go well and he is well weighted at the bottom of the weights.
King Johns Castle is the best chance of the Irish for me and I was very taken by him last time. He is such a good jumper and gives the impression he will stay all day. He has plenty going for him with his trainer feeling the ground has come perfect for him and he is very much a horse I think can go close in this.
Comply Or Die is a horse I have had a decent each way on and he won very well in the Eider. He is definitely well treated on that form and the yard is in good form. He jumps very well and the blinkers have found a new lease of life in him. He is steadily coming together and if he takes to this early he is the type that could wind it up from halfway. He is a big player for me and I would expect him to be there or thereabouts.
However the selection for me is Nick Williams’ PHILSON RUN. The Barnstaple trainer produced the lightly raced 12yo to finish 4th in this last season and his form is undoubtedly stronger this season. He looked in need of the run at Warwick on his seasonal reappearance and did little wrong in running a gallant 2nd to a D’Argent who loves Warwick. He was full of running in 6th at Haydock next time when getting brought down and I honestly feel he would have won had he stood up. He would have been kept going nicely for this and looks a much better horse this season than he did the year before. A decent jumper he stays all day and is best on this ground. 1lb higher than when 4th last year but the 2nd and 3rd haven’t looked as smart as him this year and Philson Run is certainly well weighted to reverse form. He has the ticks in all the right boxes and has plenty going for him here. I rate him a massive player and at 25/1 I think he is overpriced. He knows his way round, this time I hope he finds his way home in front. Its been a long time since the west country has brought home the National and the you would find fewer more deserving than the family run Williams outfit.
Advised Bets
2pts Ew Philson Run @ 33/1
1pt Ew Comply Or Die @ 11/1
1pt Ew Cloudy Lane @ 6/1
0.75pts Ew King Johns Castle @ 22/1
0.5pts Ew Backbeat @ 100/1
10.5pts Staked
Good Luck
Chris
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
- Messages
- 13,884
Thanks Chris, don't agree with everything you say but well presented nonetheless and raised one or two points I had forgotten.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I`ve done:
Cloudy Lane
Comply or Die
Chelsea Harbour
Point Barrow
all to win
L`Ami
Joacci
to place
Cloudy Lane
Comply or Die
Chelsea Harbour
Point Barrow
all to win
L`Ami
Joacci
to place
Great write up from Chris tho I disagree about a couple having the necessary stamina, esp Turko and Backbeat - we are largely in agreement though!
I've backed a few of the fancied runners but not the fav - not sure about his stamina, he's never been over the fences, and I'm not sure the jock is any good over them either!
This is my final betting list, none to big stakes - it's very open this year imo among about 10 or 12 rather than the usual 5 or 6, and I hope I don't get tempted to bet in running
Simon W&P antepost @25 win
Slim Pickings W&P antepost @ 28 win
Philson Run Place only @ 8.2
d'Argent Place only @ 8.6 all on BF
Paddy Power are doing 5 places at 1/4 odds and I've also backed to small stakes in the last 24 hours:
Naunton Brook e/w @ 100/1
King John's Castle e/w @ 25/1
Philson Run e/w @ 25/1 [with my winnings from Pearl King :nuts: ]
SLIM PICKINGS is my idea of the likeliest winner and would also be my biggest result, closely followed by Philson Run. and guess what - I've done a RFCT!
I've backed a few of the fancied runners but not the fav - not sure about his stamina, he's never been over the fences, and I'm not sure the jock is any good over them either!
This is my final betting list, none to big stakes - it's very open this year imo among about 10 or 12 rather than the usual 5 or 6, and I hope I don't get tempted to bet in running
Simon W&P antepost @25 win
Slim Pickings W&P antepost @ 28 win
Philson Run Place only @ 8.2
d'Argent Place only @ 8.6 all on BF
Paddy Power are doing 5 places at 1/4 odds and I've also backed to small stakes in the last 24 hours:
Naunton Brook e/w @ 100/1
King John's Castle e/w @ 25/1
Philson Run e/w @ 25/1 [with my winnings from Pearl King :nuts: ]
SLIM PICKINGS is my idea of the likeliest winner and would also be my biggest result, closely followed by Philson Run. and guess what - I've done a RFCT!
betsmate
At the Start
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2004
- Messages
- 5,752
I haven't really had chance to have a proper look at all of the runners and generally shy away from getting involved in Summer Jumping staying handicaps, but based on the excellent write-ups on here I will chuck a few quid at the following:
Philson Run
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
Cloudy Lane
Cheers for those that have done the work that I am too lazy to do.
Philson Run
Comply Or Die
Snowy Morning
Cloudy Lane
Cheers for those that have done the work that I am too lazy to do.
I’ll spare you the reasoning as it’s getting late in the day and has been well rehearsed in recent years.
Long list: I’ve got the field down to (racecard order):
Butler’s Cabin
Slim Pickings
Chelsea Harbour
Vodka Bleu
Snowy Morning
Bewleys Berry
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
King John Castle
Mon Mome
Comply Or Die
Kelami
Philson’s Run
Two big-priced outsiders that may be worth an interest are Kelami and Vodka Bleu.
Short list:
Snowy Morning
Bewley’s Berry
Cloudy Lane
King John’s Castle
Comply Or Die
Suggested finishing order:
1) Cloudy Lane
2) Comply Or Die
3) Snowy Morning
4) King John’s Castle
5) Bewley’s Berry
6) Kelami
Long list: I’ve got the field down to (racecard order):
Butler’s Cabin
Slim Pickings
Chelsea Harbour
Vodka Bleu
Snowy Morning
Bewleys Berry
D’Argent
Cloudy Lane
King John Castle
Mon Mome
Comply Or Die
Kelami
Philson’s Run
Two big-priced outsiders that may be worth an interest are Kelami and Vodka Bleu.
Short list:
Snowy Morning
Bewley’s Berry
Cloudy Lane
King John’s Castle
Comply Or Die
Suggested finishing order:
1) Cloudy Lane
2) Comply Or Die
3) Snowy Morning
4) King John’s Castle
5) Bewley’s Berry
6) Kelami
May as well be honest about my National portfolio before the event...
Have backed at big prices and laid off at shorter prices King Johns Castle and Philson Run in the past few weeks...
Ante post backed Chelsea Harbour, D'argent and Baily Breeze at fancy prices
Today, I've had varying sizes of bets on Bewleys Berry, Hedgehunter, Black Apalachi, Slim Pickings and Butlers Cabin
In the place market, I have laid Simon, Cloudy Lane, Turko and Comply Or Die..
Have backed at big prices and laid off at shorter prices King Johns Castle and Philson Run in the past few weeks...
Ante post backed Chelsea Harbour, D'argent and Baily Breeze at fancy prices
Today, I've had varying sizes of bets on Bewleys Berry, Hedgehunter, Black Apalachi, Slim Pickings and Butlers Cabin
In the place market, I have laid Simon, Cloudy Lane, Turko and Comply Or Die..
rorydelargy
At the Start
Philson Run has been my horse for this all year, but I now stand to win more on Madison Du Berlais and have made Mon Mome a big winner.
rorydelargy
At the Start
Rick of the day by VC among others ~ a twelve year old to win the race @ 14/1. The two twelve year olds in the race, Hedgehunter and Philson Run are priced at 11/1 and 33/1. Work that one out.
