Grand National

I'm not sure how to read MD this year.

I wonder if that Cheltenham race fell apart in front of him. Was the Welsh National his real form? If so he won't be winning next week. If the Cheltenham form can be taken at face value and he was deliberately not put into the Welsh national until too late with an eye on this race then he has a shout.

I reckon that's what you're betting on.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not at all, Slim. You know my view is that this place should be like a club and if one of us can report that we had a nice return from a certain event we should be glad for them.

I made a small fortune yesterday, by the way. be happy for me! :)
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After-timing is a cardinal sin.....unless it is fessed to at the point of the after-time.......and even then, it's a little moody.
 
I've eliminated T43! [although might crack on Saturday]. If anyone wants a horse to not win just ask me to back it 'win only' and I can guarantee that it will come second [never fails].
 
If Shakalakaboomboom goes, (taken out of the Topham) has this not got a shout? 9th in 2013 and could be carrying anything up to 9lbs less, although has not showed much so far this year.
 
He's one of my [many] ante post bets so I'm chuffed to see him running; at least he's one that's been aimed at the race all year. Only one bet isn't running and that's Any Currency [I forgot how low down the list he was but have to back him every year]. I just want Paul Moloney to stick wth OIAM and not switch to Alvarado now.
 
Trends I follow:-

At least one chase win at 3 miles or over
Official rating of 136 or above
At least 10 chase runs in their career
Won a chase worth at least £17k
Weighted below 11st 7
Aged between 8 and 12
At least 3 runs this season

These are widely quoted trends but I believe each of the last 10 winners meet these criteria. I also appreciate its easy to post a 1,2,3 selection after the event but a quick check will show that Teaforthree, Cappa Bleu and Across The Bay all met these trends and ran massive races last year.

Some years the trends do get bucked and I get it massively wrong. This then results in the trends being altered. Memorable examples of this are Neptune Collonges carrying more than 11st and Mom Mome being French bred. The French bred one was always a bit strange.

Other years the above trends throw up a big list and I end up putting a line through the wrong one. This may be such a year. The animals which match the criteria are:-

Teaforthree
Monbeg Dude
Burton Port
Prince De Beauchene
Balthazar King
Double Seven
The Rainbow Hunter
Shakalakaboomboom
Lion Na Bearnai
Chance Du Roy
Alvarado
Battle Group
Raz De Maree
Quito De La Roque

Its a big old list but I'm happy enough to start with 14 rather than 40 before studying the form. I'm also happy in the knowledge that once in a while the winner will not be on this list.

Gutted Same Difference has come out today.
 
Quito De La Roque would be a fascinating runner. A dour stayer.
 
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SlimChance said:
Quito De La Roque would be a fascinating runner. A dour stayer.
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Well up my list. I don't believe he's gone sour. I think they're maybe doing a 'Comply Or Die' with him. As soon as they realised he wasn't a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen they worked his handicap down for this race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well up my list. I don't believe he's gone sour. I think they're maybe doing a 'Comply Or Die' with him. As soon as they realised he wasn't a Gold Cup winner waiting to happen they worked his handicap down for this race.
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I like your thinking. 66/1 is massive for such a class horse who always looked like he needed ten miles.
 
QDLR went up to 169 for winning the JNwine Champion Chase in late 2011, having won the big staying novices chase at Aintree that spring, earning this very bullish comment in the RP analysis:
QUITO DE LA ROQUE never does things in a hurry but those who offered prices up to 279-1 in running must not be too familiar with this dour stayer. He was far from foot-perfect early on and DavyRussell had to niggle away for virtually all the final mile. Even at three out, he looked to have far too much to do.

However, he made enough ground to enter the picture at the second last and at that stage his stamina really came into play. He was clumsy at the last but, with the runner-up floundering, Russell was able to wave to the crowd after leading close home.

The chances are Quito De La Roque was something like 90 per cent here, having had a messy preparation for the race. What he achieved in winning is certainly open to debate but his manner is really likeable and he has to be rated the horse to beat in the staying chases in Ireland. The 20-1 available for the Gold Cup looks fair, as he does not need the ground to be bottomless, but Russellwill need to be at his best to keep the horse in contention. However, he could still have improvement in him and perhaps Ireland finally has a Gold Cup contender.
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He never quite made the grade but was brought over to Aintree twice afterwards. On the first occasion trying to give 10lbs and 4lbs respectively to Wayward Prince and Across The Bay ("not a true reflection of his ability") and the next year was just behind First Lieutenant, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti when a blunder at the last exaggerated the distance by which he was beaten. I suspect that was when they realised the Gold Cup wasn't an option - maybe Nicholls now wishes he'd taken the same view with Silviniaco Conti - and from then on he has been working his way down to a very workable 152.

Even if he was 'just' a 165 horse he'd be around the level of plenty of placed horses in the Gold Cup down the years.

But it boils down to whether this is the plan or whether, as Bar suggests, he has gone sour.
 
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Chance Du Roy is on my very short list along with PDB who really should be joint fav for this. I like QDLR as well.

Shakalakaboomboom is another where it's hard to judge whether he's lost any known level of form or it's a plot. He was running a huge race in this a few years back before blowing up. Does anyone know if he picked up the injury in the race or was it a separate incident?
 
SlimChance said:
I like your thinking. 66/1 is massive for such a class horse who always looked like he needed ten miles.
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Quito's one anomalous run at Aintree four year's ago, is the kind of form-line that usually prefaces attempts to boot ones own hole for being so bloody stupid.

A fu*cking pig of a horse in every respect. At least Mikael D'Hagenuet had the decency to go in every now and then. QDLR can only be relied-upon for one thing these days - total capitulation.
 
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