Grand Prix de Paris

Seems BBI has been part sold and appears likely to stay with O'Brien for the time being anyway.

What is the ground likely to be. Age Of Aquarius is surely better than his Epsom run and the form of his effort in the Lingfield Derby has been boosted by the Gosden horse at Newmarket last week.
 
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Galileo said:
Seems BBI has been part sold and appears likely to stay with O'Brien for the time being anyway.

What is the ground likely to be. Age Of Aquarius is surely better than his Epsom run and the form of his effort in the Lingfield Derby has been boosted by the Gosden horse at Newmarket last week.
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And also by Father Time at Royal Ascot.
 
LUKE said:
I think Age of Aquarius is slow.
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Perhaps, but his Lingfield Derby Trial form is working out pretty well. His Derby effort can be forgotten as he looked far too wound up before the off and looked very light in himself which I think is why he missed Ascot and the Irish Derby.

Freshened up for this and I think he will prove to be the best of the Ballydoyle horses, though not sure that will be good enough to win it if the favourite is as good as they are suggesting.
 
We've got enough evidence now to surely deduce that this isn't the dawning of the Age of Aquarius?

Aidan hasn't exactly used the Lingfield trial to any great extent in the past as a clarion call for the dawning of a new star

2000 - Apollo Victoria
2004 - Five Dynasties
2008 - Alessandro Volta and King of Rome
2009 - Age of Aquarius

It would suggest to me that AoA started the season someway down the Ballydoyle pecking order, and it's hardly an illustrious roll call as none of the above named to my recollection won a Gp1? Didn't King of Rome pick up something though? I'm sure he won a Gp2? Royal Whip?

I digress.

He's normally used the Derrinstown first, and a combination of the Dante and more recently either the Dee Stakes or Vase as his second launch pad. This surely makes the Lingfield trial 4th or 5th on his list.

The second clue could possibly be those he's sent to the Curragh, which presumebly form his elite squad now? Fame and Glory, Masterofthehorse, and Golden Sword. When you throw Rip Van Winkle into mix, you've got grounds to assume that AoA is 5th at best? He's keeping company with Black Bear Island (sold) and Freemantle.

That he's lining up here also has Leger written all over him, and possibly evidence of Luke's assertion that he's too slow to win a Gp1 at 12F's? He made heavy work of beating Montaff afterall.

Since the Prix Jockey Club went to 10.5F's the GP de Paris has enjoyed a minor renaissance, and O'Brien has indeed started to use it each year.

2005 - Scorpion - won and went onto win the Leger
2006 - Mountain - 7th and went onto finish 7th in the Leger
2007 - Eagle Mountain - UR and ended up finishing 2nd to Conduit in the BC Turf
2008 - Alessandro Volta - 6th and went onto to finsih 10th in the Leger

AoA is starting to develop a pretty similar profile to Alessandro Volta (albeit AV took in the Irish Derby) but if the French haven't got a better 3yo colt then AoA then you'd have to be disappointed.

You could argue that perhaps Aidan has got AoA all wrong and that running down hills with tight left hand bends doesn't suit him, and that he's been denied his chance to show his best so far, but right now I'd be tempted to look at the French horses taking UK prices.

Unfortunately, my own ratings seem to hinge on a roguish card run at Longchamp of May 4th, which at face value makes Wajir the selection, but is too far removed from being credible for more liking now
 
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Be very interesting to see how Balleydoyle employ their team tactics, which don't seem to have been working too well lately, and what the French stewards make of them.
richard
 
I am surprised Beheshtam is odds against to be honest, it was a mighty effort to finish 4th in the Jockey Club over a clearly inadequate trip after only being committed to the race a few days beforehand. I'd be very disappointed if any of the Ballydoyle motley crew sent over for this were good enough. I would certainly be tempted to box up some forecasts involving Beheshtam, Cavalryman and Wajir.
 
Freemantle is a very good horse imo, they just screwed him up at Ascot and went too quickly with him in the Dante. IF he isnt acting as a hare tomorrow, he will be the ballydoyle number uno for me.
 
No mention of Mastery! the boys in blue flying high atm

I am with MR.Warbler and going for Wajir who is over priced!
 
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Galileo said:
Seems BBI has been part sold and appears likely to stay with O'Brien for the time being anyway.

What is the ground likely to be. Age Of Aquarius is surely better than his Epsom run and the form of his effort in the Lingfield Derby has been boosted by the Gosden horse at Newmarket last week.
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That's right he’ll run in new colours tonight. The US-based combination Hubbard/Masterson have bought a share in him. He’s expected to stay in training with AOB.

The going should suit AOA for AOB. The favourite doesn't look anywhere as good as the winner from the same yard last year.

I'd say Cavalryman is the main danger to AOA.
 
By the same token Age of Aquarius doesn't look anywhere near as good as 4 from his 'same yard' this year
 
I dare say whoever wins this will be quite decent. But none look compelling and conditions may suit AOA best, unless there is significant rain before this evening.
 
I think Luke has struck the nail on the head regarding Age of Acquarius. Montaff has hardly advertised the Lingfield form either.

I have it between the front 2, and swaying towards Cavalryman each way at the prices. I'd be surprised if any of the AOB horses were good enough.

Perhaps a reverse forecast on the front 2.
 
Depends who you mean when refering to the front two:

AOA is as big as 11/2 and as short as 7/2, while Cavalryman is as big as 7/1 and as short as 7/2. Plus I would have thought Beheshtam will slide out from the 6/4 on offer at Hills. He is surely much too short on pretty average form/credentials.

I am quite struck with Cavalryman though. He has run very well at Listed and Group 2 level and seems able to quicken (also top-rated on RPRs ahead of Black Bear Island and Freemantle).
 
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Hamm said:
I think Luke has struck the nail on the head regarding Age of Acquarius. Montaff has hardly advertised the Lingfield form either.
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Montaff was very flattered by that race. AOA did very well to win in a race run all wrong for him. Sounds like he may have blossomed recently also, so must have a shout against these. Cavalryman is the one most to fear imo.
 
betsmate said:
Why? Looks a decent field to me: plenty of group wins on show, including a G1 and some multiple G3 winners. Some G1 place form too. A couple have bits and bobs of form behind Alpine Rose and I know Irish Stamp was keen on Pointilliste earlier in the year. You have to respect stayers from that yard.

I haven't seen any prices yet, but hopefully the market is formed around Bannaby with prices available on Shemima and Pointilliste.
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Indicative - Betting Forecast: 15/8 Pointilliste, 7/2 Shemima, 7/2 Winkle, 5/1 Bannaby, 8/1 La Boum, 14/1 Voila Ici
 
SteveM said:
Depends who you mean when refering to the front two:

AOA is as big as 11/2 and as short as 7/2, while Cavalryman is as big as 7/1 and as short as 7/2. Plus I would have thought Beheshtam will slide out from the 6/4 on offer at Hills. He is surely much too short on pretty average form/credentials.

I am quite struck with Cavalryman though. He has run very well at Listed and Group 2 level and seems able to quicken.
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I meant the two french horses - I thought they were the top 2 in the betting. I'd have quite a sizeable bet on Cavalryman at 7/1 each way.

Perhaps AoA has improved, but he didn't look any kind of horse in the Derby, and only an average one in the Lingfield Derby trial. You would have to take a lot on trust that he has improved considerably.

I'm also going to have a bet on Cavalryman for the Arc (currently 44 on BF).
 
Hamm said:
I meant the two french horses - I thought they were the top 2 in the betting. I'd have quite a sizeable bet on Cavalryman at 7/1 each way.

Perhaps AoA has improved, but he didn't look any kind of horse in the Derby, and only an average one in the Lingfield Derby trial. You would have to take a lot on trust that he has improved considerably.

I'm also going to have a bet on Cavalryman for the Arc (currently 44 on BF).
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I wouldn't put you off an EW bet at 7s on Cavalryman (Chandler was quoting that this morning). He's top rated and fairly unexposed. He's sure to start much shorter than this, but good luck in getting it!
 
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