Grand Prix de Paris

To me it is pretty blatent that the Epsom Derby came far too soon for AOA. He had a setback in the spring, ran green and did not really handle Lingfield but still beat a subsequent Royal Ascot winner and Group 2 placed (unlucky loser) horse. He is a fine looking horse but looked poor and over trained for the Epsom Derby and ran accordingly.

Might not be good enough to win today (respect the favourite alot) but I expect a much sharper and improved performance from AOA today.
 
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I have to admit to not getting it about the favourite. No idea why people seem to fancy him for the Arc (unless purely on the stable). I don't see him as a big problem for AOA (in fact I'd be quite disappointed if AOA is unable to beat him). One or two of the others may prove a bit tougher though.
 
Nick Mordin went into quite a lot of detail about Beheshtam in his Prix du Jockey Club review:

http://www.nickmordin.com/france_june_2009.htm

BEHESHTAM (39) had a very wide draw and was about seventeen lengths off the scorching pace up front with half a mile to go. He gained over a dozen lengths from there and passed eleven horses to reach fourth place by the line.

Beheshtam is a strong, rangy, scopey sort that's built for a mile and a half plus but also has the kind of physique that can produce a decent turn of foot. He shows a little knee action. He is the first foal of Behkara who won a Group 2 over 1m 7f and finished second and third in the Group 1 Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger) over half a furlong longer.

On his first start Beheshtam ran in a strongly run maiden over 1m 5f on yielding ground at Maisons-Laffitte. Dropped out last, he closed up just after entering the straight but initially had his path blocked and had to take up. His jockey at first made a move to swing round the outside but then decided it would be okay to push his mount through what was a narrow gap. Beheshtam had to be ridden along to take the gap. But once he was through it he was clearly going way better than any of his rivals. He cruised clear with his jockey sitting near motionless and able to take a look back at his rivals as they slipped further behind.

Beheshtam passed the post moving very easily, clearly with a good deal in hand. Yet he clocked a time that was only a length or two per mile off Listed class.

On his only subsequent start, twelve days before the Prix du Jockey Club, Behetsham ran in a red hot Listed race at Longchamp that's produced a couple of Prix du Jockey Club winners, the Prix l'Avre. This time the distance was a mile and a half.

I thought Behetsham had his work cut out in the Prix l'Avre to beat Claremont, a horse that's either Group 1 class or very close to it on my speed ratings. But such was Behetsham's reputation after his impressive debut win he started odds on.

The early pace set by Claremont's pacemaker wasn't great. Certainly it was slow enough to make the final time a bit slower than it would have been off a stronger gallop. Logically this should have compromised Behetsham's chances as much as Claremont's (a horse that needs a strong pace as he lacks push-button acceleration). But Christophe Soumillon showed amazing confidence in his mount's ability to pick his rivals up in the sprint finish, only switching him out to the centre of the course to make his run one furlong from the finish. At that point Behetsham had three horses in front of him and over two lengths to make up. But he did it comfortably with an impressive surge of speed, winning by a short neck.

Officially the going was good to soft at Longchamp. Race times on the grande course on which the race was run indicate that's correct, but you can see from the video the rail on the home turn was pushed out markedly, so the slower times were simply due to the horses running about 30 yards longer than normal. This is confirmed by race times from the same day on the adjacent petite and moyenne courses, and by the fact that the runners weren't throwing up big divots like they would on yielding ground. The going was genuinely good in my opinion, as it was for the Prix du Jockey Club. So we now know that Behetsham can act on at least good going, though his trainer has still expressed concerns about running him on anything faster.

Beheshtam is a Group 1 horse on my ratings. And he did well here seeing that he had the triple whammy of faster ground, a cut back in trip and a wide draw to overcome.

Trainer Alain Royer-Dupre said afterwards "He ran very well. Let us not forget that this was not his true distance, which is around a mile and a half. He is a horse that's going to go well in the big races this Autumn. He will run in the Grand Prix de Paris if the Longchamp track is in good condition, which will probably not be the case. When it is too dry, it becomes dangerous. "

Beheshtam's jockey Christophe Soumillon, added: "I regret that the distance was shortened by a furlong and a half. At a mile and a half we would have won. He lacked experience and was beaten only by milers."

If he were mine I wouldn't think of risking Beheshtam on ground that may well be too fast for him in the Grand Prix de Paris. Seeing how soft the ground has been in Ireland the season I'd be strongly inclined to supplement him for the Irish Derby instead. Failing that I'd go down the traditional Prix Niel and Arc de Triomphe route and hope that the going turns up soft at Longchamp for Europe's biggest race.
 
This seems quite bullish apart from the going issue. Maybe I've got the horse wrong, but he looks all one-paced to me.
 
I think the ground is the main worry for him.

I'm happy to look foolish later on, but I think Age of Acquarius is a plodder, and couldn't be more against him.

I'm beginning to think more and more that 9/2 or 5/1 Cavalryman is a very good bet.
 
I think the ground is the main worry for him.

I'm happy to look foolish later on, but I think Age of Acquarius is a plodder, and couldn't be more against him.

I'm beginning to think more and more that 9/2 or 5/1 Cavalryman is a very good bet.


You might be right. I'm beginning to think that AOA is the danger to Cavalryman rather than Cavalryman the danger to AOA.
 
I just can't accept that Aidan O'Brien's 5th string is better than any middle distance colt that French racing has. Alright I realise that this wouldn't be the French's creme de la creme necessarily, but surely they've got something good enough to beat a Lingfield trial winner on home soil? As things stand Age of Aquarius has all the make up of Alessandro Volta about him.

You might say that AOB won this with Scorpion a few years back off a fast pace, but the race has probably gained in status a bit since then after a few decades in decline. Scorpions win was the first year that the Prix Jockey Club was reduced in distance I think. In any event, Scorpion had only found Hurricane Run to good in an Irish Derby and duly went to Longchamp with a degree of class to recommend him. As yet AoA hasn't shown anything to suggest he's in this league unless you want to crawl back to 2yo form.

He looks every bit a Leger horse to me and my best guess is that Beheshtam has both bases covered. He's got a staying pedigree and has won over 13F's already. He's also won races in very slow times which is normally indicative of acceleration and shoudln't be dismissed as evidence of a 'slow horse'.

Wajir actually holds him through Claremont who is the horse that Mordin's talking up as his benchmark on Prix Hocquhot running, where he put up a suspiciously fast time on a card that featured 3 fast times and 5 very slow ones. I've tweaked around with it since to revise Wajir down. Wajir was of course beaten in the Prix Jockey Club 6L's by Beheshtam but did encounter some hampering 2F's (not enough to alter their placings I'd imagine) but enough to bring him nearer. At 14's I think he's the value
 
Cavalryman is my top rated with cut in the ground (-4.21), though he was beaten by Cutlass Bay on it, so its a positive laced with a negative. He won his listed race on -0.79 I reckon (slow side of good). Beheshtam has winning form on -3.49 (soft) and -1.06 (slow side of good) which would indicate he can accelrate out of it as he won in a very slow times.
 
Beheshtam gets absolutely hammered when they turn in and lost his action. AOA looks like Dylan Thomas mk 2 in every way.
 
Beheshtam definitely looked unsound close home.

AOA looks a Leger horse through and through but ran much better than in the Derby.
 
AOA may be a Leger horse but 70s on Betfair was too good to resist for the Arc given his progressive profile and I can't see AOB not being mob handed in the race, particularly if AOA runs well in the Leger.
 
Cavalryman looks decent, good to see the Sheikh Mohammed/Fabre linkup having some success.

I can't see AOA proving much better than that, at least over 12f.
 
I wouldn't be sure of that, he is certainly improving. That was a big step up on previous runs.

That said I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a cup horse next year.
 
On a different note, how nice is it to come in from work, put the feet up and watch a couple of high-class races? Should happen more often during the summer.
 
Funnily enough, there's a radio 5 programme on at 9.00 discussing the future of racing and what changes you'd make. I doubt it's a phone in they never seem to do those for horses - football, cricket, tennis yep but not racing, it's almost as if they've can't persuade people to take part unless they have total microphone time, and they won't get that by inviting memebers of the GP to have their say.

I was struck by a similar sentiment Gareth (although coming in from work isn't an issue here) but it was worth making a extra effort to sit down and watch. We've had 71 posts on the race and I'm sure that has something to do with it being a midweek evening race which allowed it to catch our attention and to spend a little bit more time on it. Wonder how many we had on Grand Prix de St Cloud? or a host of toher group races run at weekends
 
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On a different note, how nice is it to come in from work, put the feet up and watch a couple of high-class races? Should happen more often during the summer.

Unfortunately I came home at 2pm to catch the dullest stage of Le Tour too!
 
Some good debate, but they're missing a lot of points that should be made about trying to make Racing more popular to the general public. Maybe it's a topic that should have it's own thread.
 
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