Grand Prix de Paris

Was thinking the same Euro. I've only caught about 20 mins, and was somewhat concerned to hear a text message broadcast from someone called Dom :blink: but then realised that since Dom was calling for reduced entry prices it was hardly likely to be the same Dom.

If Gamla Stan would be good enough to provide a quick precis or synopsis of the main points then I'm sure we can broaden it out by way of a 'think tank'. Or if someone else wants to start it, please feel free.

I quite liked the idea of a structured jockeys championship myself, probably involving promotion and relegation.

Gareth, is there anyway you can capture an Iplayer type of thing for radio programmes? and if so could we endeavour to post the link in the thread?
 
Last edited:
Gareth Flynn said:
On a different note, how nice is it to come in from work, put the feet up and watch a couple of high-class races? Should happen more often during the summer.
Click to expand...

Well reports suggest RTE are very keen to have plenty of the main flat races (that they televise) put back to later times after the huge success of the Punchestown viewing figures....so perhaps it is on the way. Whats more, races like the Oaks and the Derby clash with GAA action so RTE would be keen to be able to slot the racing straight in after that.
 
This years Dante form resembles the leavings of a large farm animal.

AOA looks like he has a good chance to win the Leger but I think he will prefer good ground.

Black Bear Island will probably be getting his "Green Card" soon and head to America...he is not good enough at this level in Ire/Eng and would never be able to win a G1..but he could have a nice career in the States given the easier options and his pedigree.
 
Hamm said:
Did you do the forecast?!
Click to expand...

Well done… :thumbsup: we got it right between us. You greatly helped me talk myself into taking the 9/2 on Cavalryman and I reversed the cast, for whopping value… Cheers Hamm! I owe you one. We were right not to fancy a ridiculously short false favourite.
 
An aside to Galileo.

Yesterday was just such an example (that I was searching my brain for previously) of making a choice between colour options for silks when Black Bear Island was due to run in the colours of his new shareholder (advertised on the racecard – white with a red circle), but in fact ran in Sue Magnier’s second colours (pink), with AOA in the first colours, despite BBI winning the Dante.
 
SteveM said:
Well done… :thumbsup: we got it right between us. You greatly helped me talk myself into taking the 9/2 on Cavalryman and I reversed the cast, for whopping value… Cheers Hamm! I owe you one. We were right not to fancy a ridiculously short false favourite.
Click to expand...

Cheers, but I got the second quite wrong!

In retrospect, I think if Montmartre hadn't looked so impressive last year, thereby drawing comparisons, and if Soumillion hadn't made as many positive comments ('my Arc horse','would have won Prix du JC if it was over 1m4'), Beheshtam may have been 3 or 4/1.
 
chroniclandlord said:
How did the rating experts assess this race? Would the winner be a 120+ horse.
Click to expand...

He was highest rated on RPRs (unadjusted) going into the race. He's certainly into the 120s after this (if he wasn't before), which is clearly his highest rated performance to date.
 
Last edited:
Hamm said:
Cheers, but I got the second quite wrong!

In retrospect, I think if Montmartre hadn't looked so impressive last year, thereby drawing comparisons, and if Soumillion hadn't made as many positive comments ('my Arc horse','would have won Prix du JC if it was over 1m4'), Beheshtam may have been 3 or 4/1.
Click to expand...

My arguing all along is they were making that one favourite because of the yard. He's no Montmartre for sure. Like I say I have no idea why he was being backed for the Arc and don't see anything in his form to excite me. He's one paced. You can't win the Arc with a horse like this. If people want to call horses plodders this one's a good candidate.
 
Yes, you're right, he doesn't seem to be very fast. As regards his price, it's similar to the Aidan O'Brien factor ... the Aga Khan studs have produced some fanstastic horses in recent years, and because of the likes of Zarkava, Shawanda, Azamour, Alamshar, Dalakhani, Montmartre etc, his horses in these type of races will usually be overbet.
 
SteveM said:
He was highest rated on RPRs (unadjusted) going into the race. He's certainly into the 120s after this (if he wasn't before), which is clearly his highest rated performance to date.
Click to expand...


Thanks Steve, that would indicate that the second, third and fourth are also progressing and have posted career bests, while Black Bear Island in seventh would be about level with his Ascot rating and not as good as the Dante rating suggested.
 
SteveM said:
An aside to Galileo.

Yesterday was just such an example (that I was searching my brain for previously) of making a choice between colour options for silks when Black Bear Island was due to run in the colours of his new shareholder (advertised on the racecard – white with a red circle), but in fact ran in Sue Magnier’s second colours (pink), with AOA in the first colours, despite BBI winning the Dante.
Click to expand...

Will send you a PM on this.
 
chroniclandlord said:
Thanks Steve, that would indicate that the second, third and fourth are also progressing and have posted career bests, while Black Bear Island in seventh would be about level with his Ascot rating and not as good as the Dante rating suggested.
Click to expand...

AOA will certainly have improved on his best, but that was widely expected as the Derby trial was run all wrong for him (where he nevertheless beat decent types) and he has been reported as blossoming since running an indifferent Derby. I was disappointed that BBI didn't show better form as I thought there was a hint that he was back on track at Ascot, which appears to have fizzled out now.

Mastery also put in a much better effort than in the Queen's Vase now back in trip.
 
Last edited:
It will be interesting to see how the RP rate this.

A figure of 120 would suggest that Freemantle and Beheshtam have run their race, and Age Of Aquarius, Mastery and Wajir have all coincidentally improved by the same amount (~8 or 9 lbs) and Cavalryman by a little less (~6 lbs).
 
Gareth Flynn said:
It will be interesting to see how the RP rate this.

A figure of 120 would suggest that Freemantle and Beheshtam have run their race, and Age Of Aquarius, Mastery and Wajir have all coincidentally improved by the same amount (~8 or 9 lbs) and Cavalryman by a little less (~6 lbs).
Click to expand...

Something around +/- 1-2lb (perhaps a fraction short of this) seems about right to me. I wouldn't have much hestitation in saying the winner has run to 120 (maybe +). That AOA and Mastery have improved on their previous best and that Freemantle has run to his previous best. Beheshtam has probably run to, or not far short, of his previous best.
 
It seems, much as we thought, that Cavalryman has been accorded an RPR of 119, with AOA on 116.

Mastery, Freemantle and BBI all have best RPRs of 113, with Beheshtan on a best RPR of 112.
 
Thanks - what did BBI and Freemantle get for the Dante? I thought it would have been much higher than 113, no?
 
Both got 113 in the Dante.

I think the RP have rated this one a little on the optimistic side, but time will tell.
 
Hamm said:
Thanks - what did BBI and Freemantle get for the Dante? I thought it would have been much higher than 113, no?
Click to expand...

I'm extrapolating as I've not become a paid up member. These are all RPR best ratings.

Obviously Cavalryman and AOA (and no doubt Mastery) have run to their best on Tuesday, so their stated ratings of 119, 116 and 113 will reflect Tuesday's result.

BBI's 113 would be for the Dante, he would have underperformed 113 on Tuesday. As Freemantle ran virtually the same as BBI in the Dante the 113 would be for that, although his running on Tuesday would have been virtually identical (perhaps 112).

A paid up member could tell us for sure.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Both got 113 in the Dante.

I think the RP have rated this one a little on the optimistic side, but time will tell.
Click to expand...

My impression was that 120 for Cavalryman (or a fraction below) was about right. So 119 looks okay to me. Put in perspective it makes this good Group 1 winner about 12lbs inferior to STS. I'm not too sure STS could give this one 12lbs and a beating in a handicap.
 
Last edited:
Steve I'm not paid up either but got this by clicking on the respective trainers in the statistics.

Age of Aquarius 116
Mastery 113
Freemantle 113
Black Bear Island 105
 
Back
Top