Greatest Threat

I think MWDS is the biggest threat to Kauto Star; I think Denman may be done for toe by the likes of KS, MWDS & Don't Push It who, like Gal, is another I'm very keen on.
 
He had a very hard campaign last season.
Lets see if Ruby is on him or is riding Denman.
I want to see if he keeps not falling with the mistakes and if he does what will happen to his confidence.
 
Totally agree EC (shock).Its fantastic for the game.

Wish Kicking king could come back too...but doubt it sadly

Totally agree Gal. The campaigning of KS and a few others (Katchit springs to mind) was very refreshing and a credit to the trainers

Whilst there might be reasons for Best Mate, Sublimity and Newmill type campaigns, its hardly endearing to the true racing fan
 
I can't see anything laying a glove on Kauto Star, wherever he completes the course without mis-hap.

The only time he might be in trouble is in the Gold Cup, if it came up really bottomless - his stamina might be tested sufficiently for stable-mate Denman to take advantage, and even then, that one would need to have improved about two-stone in the interim.
 
I can't see anything challenging KS either, provided he doesn't get too careless
Denman is the horse with the most likely ability to improve to that standard, along with MWDS

Exotic Dancer is a Cheltenham horse in the main, and I don't see him improving any further this year, though stranger things have happened. Otherwise, agreed, Don't Push It may improve but made mistakes in both his last two runs, and like all the younger chasers of promise I'd need to see him/them do really well early in the season to have any hope of challenging KS. None of them seems bomb-proof

Can't see Ashley Brook going 3 miles; he's a front runner and tends to run with the choke out
However if he could be got to settle down better in his races the Ryanair might be interesting
The last Champion Chase was really thrilling, hope to see a renewal of that this year
 
The greatest threat to Kauto is his tendons. (Even reading this topic has got me interested in horse racing again.)
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Sep 19 2007, 06:39 PM
Hendersons are very sweet on Oedipe
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I will give more details;

The yard always rated him highly and he came over expected to build into a useful 2m 5f - 3m chaser.

Having won like a seriously well handicapped horse on King George day he was given time off to strengthen up and considering connections feel he is well handicapped they decided to save his mark of 137 for this season.

I'm told he could reappear in the Paddy Power with the Hennessy on the agenda.

The yard rate him highly and apparently he is a much stronger horse this season.

Chris
 
Don't knock the Ryaniar guys, it could turn out to be an absolute cracker. Aces Four will most certainly go for the Peterborough, King George, and Ryanair so you can count him out of Gold Cup calculations. Alan King has stated the race is My Way De Solzen's target, it's likely Don't Push It will go that route, along with the likes of Our Vic, Monet's Garden, and Ashley Brook. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gungadu in the race as well, and maybe a couple of other high profile candidates. If only half of those turn up the race will be totally worthy of the Grade 1 status it's been afforded, and could well be a better race than The Gold Cup itself. To have both races packed with so much quality is a real bonus, because they have hardly been Festival highlights with many recent Gold Cups becoming one horse shows, and the Ryanair feeling very much like a consolation race.

On Kauto, he will this season have opposition in a division that has strength in depth for the first time in the best part of a decade, which is a significant turnaround from Exotic Dancer providing his only test last season along with his jumping. This is the season we can truly judge Kauto and give him the status he deserves, but I do just wonder if he will be prone to more errors as he is put under more pressure from better opposition. I don't see Kauto getting beat next March if he turns up injury free and doesn't make a bad error. He wil probably only lose if he beats himself. Actually waht will be more fascinating will be to see where Exotic Dancer ends up in the pecking order, as AP won't be able to simply ride him around for second this time around if he rides him at all in March.

On the subject of AP, his retainer with JP could well see him riding Don't Push It instead of Exotic Dancer in the Gold Cup should that horse go that route, and also Witchita Lineman instead of Black Jack Ketchum in The World Hurdle, just the same as he was required to ride Straw Bear in the Champion Hurdle instead of Brave Inca. Another test of his relationship with JP coming up maybe?
 
The Ryanair might happen to be a good race, but it is only for horses that fail to get the Gold Cup trip or are two slow for the Champion Chase. I dont think any unexposed horse is campaigned with the Ryanair as their main aim. Its the back-up option.

Not really a big fan of the trainer but Another Promise is a horse with potential this year. Hard to see him being good enough to tackle the very best.
 
cheers chris - paddy power is what sprung to my mind. The kempton race wasn't great from memory but he hosed up and jumped very well. Is fitzgerald likely to ride? I remember johnson rode at kempton?
 
Fitzgerald wouldn;t have been able to do the weight at Kempton, he was getting loads of WFA as a 4yo. As he won't have that allowance in handicaps this year, chance are he'll have to be as good as you suggest connections think he is to win races like the Paddy Power.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Sep 20 2007, 09:30 AM
The Ryanair might happen to be a good race, but it is only for horses that fail to get the Gold Cup trip or are two slow for the Champion Chase.
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I don't think that's fair. Why look at the race in negative terms? There is huge difference between racing pretty flat out over 2 miles and 3 miles. The midway is a specialist distance, and why should these horses not have their own championship? - 4 milers have the GN! There have been good horses int he past who have never got the credit they deserved for just this reason.

I'm very pleased the race has been upgraded, and I also think it's a good stepping stone for younger long distance horses before they take on the Gold Cup against fully mature chasers. It might avoid another Gloria Victis.
 
You took the words right out of my mouth DJ.

Reverse the situation. If the Gold Cup had traditionally been run over 2m5f, would you be saying the Gold Cup is a compensation race for slowboats.

There is a huge difference in trip between 2 miles and 3 miles 2 furlongs, and it seems quite right that there is a Championship race between the two distances. If the quality proves to be as high on the day as it has the potential to be then it's surely a justifiable Championship race and one we should look forward to rather than crab.
 
I have no problem with the Ryanair Chase. What I dont want is if it becomes a cop out for a horse like MWDS simply because one horse is so good. MWDS is a horse well capable (relish?) of getting the Gold Cup trip and there should be no talk of not going for the Gold Cup until at least after the Christmas meetings.
 
All right lads. There is a clear need for a Grade 1 2m4f chase. It used to be that Aintree was the only one on the calendar post christmas. The Comet Chase/Ascot Chase was re-invented and upgradeda few years ago, and now there is one at the festival. Well and good. The 2m4f horses deserve it.

However, I dont think One Man, Florida Pearl, Strong Promise or any other horses that went close, and arguably failed due to stamina over 3m2f, would baulk at the chance of winning a Gold Cup in preference of a Ryanair. One Man and Florida Pearl might not have tried their hand in the QM accepted once their stamina limitations were exposed.

But the Ryanair will be a back up for horses who find 2m too sharp and 3m2f too long. Twist the words as you want. Our Vic was a Gold Cup horse even last year, until he walked home in the Pillar. Monet's Garden in his previous attempt walked home over 3m. War of Attrition, Kicking King, Best Mate all had to prove their stamina in a Gold Cup. They took their chance. Owners with horses with serious Gold Cup or Champion Chase pretensions will not go for the Ryanair. Its the festival opportunity for those at the head of the weights in the big 2m5f pre Christmas Chelt meetings. Horses winning the Gold Cup are generally winning what has been a 4-5 plan. No one with a promising novice hurdler is going to direct his training at the Ryanair, until they have proven not good enough/or suited well enough for either a) the champion Chase or b) the gold cup.

MWDS will not run in it unless he is exposed at longer distances.
 
No one has addressed my point about the mid-distance chase bcoming a stepping stone for younger horses. I hate to see horses tackling the Gold Cup until fully mature. Kauto is of course a freak! - an exception. What is true, is that it's going to be very difficult for any other chaser currently to be considered a champ, unless he beats Kauto.

It will take time for the Ryanair to be considered a championsip race in its own right, and that will depend on how trainers and owners use it in the next 3/4 years.
 
I haven't seen Alan King state that the Ryanair is the definite target for MWDS, neither do I believe for a second that is the plan he is mapping out for the horse. Everything I have heard is that the hope is that he will go for the Gold Cup this year - including having heard that from people well connected to the animal/yard. Apart from anything else, it makes little sense - ok, the horse won the Arkle but he has also won a Stayers' so there are very little stamina doubts there. In fact he looks like he could be brilliant over a trip.
 
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